Trump’s “New Iran Deal” Sounds A Lot Like Obama’s - The Bulwark

Summary4 min read

Episode Summary: Trump’s “New Iran Deal” Sounds a Lot Like Obama’s

Episode Date: June 14, 2026
Podcast: The Bulwark
Host: Will Salatan

Overview

In this episode, Will Salatan critically unpacks the Trump administration’s recent announcement of a "historic" new Iran deal, which the administration claims is a sweeping victory for the U.S. Salatan methodically compares this supposed breakthrough to the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), revealing that many of the touted "new" provisions are actually recycled from the previous agreement. Through clips and analysis, he highlights how administration officials’ talking points unravel under scrutiny and exposes what he sees as misleading spin, empty promises, and costly consequences.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Announcement and Administration Spin

Trump and officials claim that Iran “has surrendered” and is ready to sign a deal giving “everything we wanted”.
Will Salatan sets the episode’s purpose: he intends to debunk these claims using administration interviews.
(00:00)

2. The “New” Deal Mirrors the JCPOA

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense) on Face the Nation brags about the deal’s terms—that Iran will “never have a nuclear weapon, won’t seek one, won’t buy one, won’t have one.”
Margaret Brennan (host) points out these are the same terms as the JCPOA.
Salatan emphasizes that “this big win” is actually just “a document promising not to get a nuclear weapon,” which already existed.
Noteworthy skepticism about substance: The document is described as a memorandum—"a deal to make another deal."
(00:46–01:54)

3. The “Wall” vs. “A Path to a Bomb” Framing

Hegseth claims: “JCPOA was a path to a bomb. What this deal will be will be a wall to a bomb.”
Salatan ridicules the “wall” metaphor, noting lack of specifics and comparing it to Trump’s unfulfilled “Mexico will pay for the wall” promise.
(01:54–02:13)

4. Details Deferred: Memorandum of Understanding

Mike Waltz (Trump’s UN Ambassador) on ABC: “A lot of these details are going to be worked out as we go forward into the next round of negotiation.”
Salatan points out that, again, nothing is finalized—just “a promise from Trump and his flunkies” for supposed future action.
(02:00–02:27)

5. Sanctions and the “Pay for Performance” Claim

Waltz touts that, “in terms of any unfrozen assets or sanctions relief, what’s called ‘pay for performance’” — supposedly new and stronger leverage.
Martha Raddatz (ABC) pushes back: the JCPOA only lifted sanctions “after there were verifiable steps toward implement.”
Salatan: Trump scrapped the deal, went to war, but ends up with the same mechanism for sanctions as before.
(03:19–03:45)

6. Beyond Nukes: Strait of Hormuz Claims

Waltz says Iran “cannot and will not” disrupt world economies or “hold...hostage with sea mines,” a guarantee he frames as a big win.
Salatan notes there were already no Iranian mines or tolls in the Strait before the conflict—“we did all of that...to get right back to where we were.”
(04:05–04:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Supposed Iranian Surrender:
- “Donald Trump announced that Iran has surrendered. He said they're going to sign a deal to give us everything we wanted. That's what he said.”
  — Will Salatan, (00:00)
Debunking the Big Win:
- “Wait a minute. We went to war and...got American service members killed and we're all paying way more for gas just to get a promise. A promise from Iran to make another promise. How lame is that?”
  — Will Salatan, (01:12)
The Metaphor of the “Wall”:
- Pete Hegseth: “JCPOA was a path to a bomb. What this deal will be will be a wall to a bomb.” (01:54)
- “It’s just an empty promise. Except this time there isn’t even going to be a wall. There’s just a wall of bullshit.”
  — Will Salatan, (02:32)
On “Pay for Performance”:
- Mike Waltz: “This is going to be, in terms of any unfrozen assets or sanctions relief, what's called pay for performance.” (03:19)
- Martha Raddatz: “With the jcpoa, they lifted sanctions only after there were verifiable steps toward implement.” (03:37)
Circular Progress:
- “So we did all of that. We wasted all of that. We charged you all of that to get right back to where we were with no mines or tolls.”
  — Will Salatan, (04:17)

Timestamps for Major Segments

[00:00] – Episode Introduction & Trump’s Surrender Claim
[00:46–01:54] – Secretary Hegseth Interview; Comparing Deal to JCPOA
[01:54–02:27] – The “Wall” Promise & Waltz on Details To Come
[03:19–03:45] – Waltz and "Pay for Performance”; Martha Raddatz’s Pushback
[04:05–04:20] – Waltz on Hormuz; Return to Status Quo Ante

Tone & Style

Salatan’s tone is sharply critical, sardonic, and often mocking. He aligns closely with The Bulwark’s pro-democracy, anti-authoritarian sensibility and uses pointed rhetorical questions and analogies (like the “Mexico will pay for the wall” trope) to highlight what he sees as the administration’s hypocrisy and failures.

In Summary

Will Salatan, through a series of pointed analyses and media critiques, dismantles the Trump administration’s “new” Iran deal, showing it to be largely symbolic and recycled from past efforts—at great cost. Listeners are left with the impression of a costly, circular policy, repackaged and spun as a historic achievement—but, as the quotes and clips reveal, offering little substantively new.

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Transcript13 lines

[00:00]
A
Hey, it's Will Salatan from the Bulwark. So have you heard the great news? Donald Trump announced that Iran has surrendered. He said they're going to sign a deal to give us everything we wanted. That's what he said. Right. And this morning, several officials from the administration went on TV to brag about this so called new deal. So I'm going to take you through some of the interviews and show you that it's all a bunch of bs. So let's start with Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense. He was on Face the Nation and he was bragging about the terms of this deal. Watch what happens partway through when Margaret Brennan reminds him that the jcpoa, which was the Obama Iran deal, said the same thing.
[00:47]
B
The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one. JCPOA said that there'll be negotiations to make that final.
[00:57]
A
Oh, so wait, so this big win that Trump and Hegseth promised that Iran was going to sign a document, a document promising not to get a nuclear weapon? We already had that in the Obama deal. Huh. And what was that at the end where Hegseth said there'll be negotiations to make it final? You mean this document that we're signing, it isn't even the deal. It's just a deal to make another deal. So wait a minute. We went to war and we spent all that money and we got American service members killed and we're all paying way more for gas just to get a promise. A promise from Iran to make another promise. How lame is that? Oh, but Hegseth says, no, no, no. This deal is solid. This deal, he says, is a wall.
[01:55]
B
JCPOA was a path to a bomb. What this deal will be will be a wall to a bomb.
[02:01]
A
Oh, it's a wall. So, okay, so how exactly is this wall gonna work? Let's hear from Mike Waltz, who is Trump's ambassador to the UN on abc.
[02:14]
B
This is a strong deal, but the most important piece going forward. Remember, Martha, this is a memorandum of understanding. A lot of these details are going to be worked out as we go forward into the next round of negotiation.
[02:27]
A
Huh. So, so there it is again. The details. The details he says are going to get worked out in, in the next round of negotiation. So. So this isn't a wall. This is a promise from Trump and his flunkies that somewhere down the road, Iran is going to let us build. We're going to build a wall. It's like, do you remember when Trump said Mexico was going to pay for the wall on our southern border? I mean, this is just like that. It's just an empty promise. Except this time there isn't even going to be a wall. There's just a wall of bullshit. Oh, but Walt says this deal is much better than the deal that Obama got. Because. Because this time, Iran won't get any sanctions relief till they make good on their promises.
[03:20]
B
This is going to be, in terms of any unfrozen assets or sanctions relief, what's called pay for performance.
[03:29]
A
Pay for performance sounds great. But then the ABC interviewer Martha Raddatz points out one little thing.
[03:37]
B
Let me just say, with the jcpoa, they lifted sanctions only after there were verifiable steps toward implement.
[03:45]
A
Oh, well, how about that? We already had a pay for performance deal before Trump scrapped that deal and went to war to get us another pay for performance deal. Okay, so do we get anything else in this deal? Let's hear from Walt on Fox News.
[04:05]
B
He's been very clear on this for many decades. Iran cannot and will not have a nuclear weapon, and they cannot and will not hold the world's economies hostage with sea mines attacking shipping and trying to charge tolls.
[04:20]
A
Oh, so. So there won't be any Iranian mines or tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. That's. That sounds great. Except remind me, did Iran have mines and tolls in the Strait of Hormuz before we went to war and spent all these billions of dollars and drove up your gas prices? No. In fact, there were no mines or tolls. So we did all of that. We wasted all of that. We charged you all of that to get right back to where we were with no mines or tolls. Oh, but Hegseth assures us that we already have control of the Strait of Hormuz. He says.