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- [00:00]
A
I want to tell you why I love focus groups.
- [00:02]
B
Yeah.
- [00:02]
A
Because in a poll, you cannot hear voters do these dejected sighs. The like. I mean, Ossoff is just going to like, hello, everyone, and welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week, we are going to Georgia, which has a bunch of fun and interesting primaries coming up on Tuesday, May 19, which is very soon. Now, look, I say fun and interesting, but I think this, this episode is going to be a really funny window into the disconnect between the kinds of, like, political nerds who listen to this show and how regular voters process these kinds of elections. Because there's, like, a really crowded Republican primary for U.S. senate there in Georgia and crowded primary fields for governor in both parties. It's a political nerd's dream. But the focus groups made it clear that primaries felt like a root canal for Republicans and Democrats alike. Because if you think America as a whole is worn out on politics, man, Georgians are doubly worn out. The exception is my guest today. He's one of the most plugged in reporters in Georgia, Greg Bluestein, co host of the Politically Georgia podcast and author of Flipped How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power. Greg, thanks for coming back and doing this again.
- [01:27]
B
I'm honored to be with you.
- [01:29]
A
I was telling Greg, I was like, you got a face for podcasts, man. This guy's a scribbler. Look at this. Look how handsome. All right, before we get into the show and I tease Greg Moore, go get your tickets to the BulW Works Live shows next week in San Diego on May 20 and Los Angeles on May 21. I'm going to be there with Tim Miller, Sam Stein. Go to the bulwark.com events and come hang out with us.
- [01:51]
B
I want to come.
- [01:52]
A
Come. You should fly out. It'll be a good time, I guarantee it. So I want to talk about Georgia's new status as a swing state because it's making Georgia very interesting. You're like the guy, the person who knows the most about Georgia politics at a time when Georgia is one of the most important political states. And so how has Georgia's status as a swing state affected the political culture? Are people's brains just, like, fried by the constant political advertising?
- [02:21]
B
Yes. We were used to being ignored. Right. We're used to a lot of these races being over in the primaries for decades, really? And the last, I don't know, eight years, kind of coinciding with Donald Trump's rise, maybe 2016. And on Georgia's become this competitive battleground.
- [02:37]
A
Right.
- [02:38]
B
I view it as the premier battleground state in the nation. And Republicans and Democrats think that that status is not going away. They differ on how competitive it is. Right. Republicans still say it's a red state. Democrats are like, it might not be purple, periwinkle crimson, you know, shades of purple. But I think the biggest factor other than Donald Trump, you can track the suburbs of metro Atlanta going from Republican bastions to democratic strongholds from 2016 to right now. Right. And now they're the cornerstone of the Democratic coalition in Georgia. There's these folks, we call them the deciding factor, the deciders in Georgia. There's the few hundred thousand, maybe three or four hundred thousand voters who split their tickets, who in 2022 voted for both Brian Kemp, the Republican governor, and Raphael Warnock, the Democratic U.S. senator. But in some elections they go all Republican and some they're more willing to go and vote for more Democrats and they're going to help decide this election, too.
- [03:33]
A
When you talk about politics publicly all the time, you put yourself in a position to be yelled at by a lot of people who do not like it, who they just, they don't. They think your analysis is, is incorrect. And one of the things people do not like to hear is one that swing voters exist. For some reason, people sort of object to the idea that swing voters are really a thing. I of course, believe that they are, especially in very specific places. Georgia being like swing voters in a swing state like Georgia are some of the most critical people. And so I endeavor to understand them. But there's also this sense. And so people don't like to believe that they're split ticket voters, which of course there are. Georgia is a place where they, they're really important. But there's also this debate about whether the Democratic Party, in order to win more voters, needs to be more moderate or more progressive. And I kind of hate that argument because it often flattens the conversation that is very distinct in different places. So in a place like Georgia, how do you think about swing voters and the kind of candidates that attract these swing voters? Like, what do you need to be like in Georgia to win over those complicated, swingier people?
- [04:46]
B
Yeah, I can attest those swing voters do exist and they're all over, all over Georgia, but they're really all over, like the metro Atlanta suburbs. And that's the reason why you have a Governor Kemp right now and a Senator Warnock. Right. Without those swing voters, there wouldn't be any of either of those politicians, or at least one of those politicians wouldn't be in office. But you know, that debate has been raging in the Democratic Party for a long time because when Democrats held power in Georgia and they did it a until the early 2000s, they were very conservative for the most part. There were some liberal Democrats, but you know, there, there's this unique coalition of white, more conservative rural Democrats and, and, and black voters who tended to be a little bit more liberal, but you know, more moderate over the years. And sometimes you'd have a more liberal candidate kind of shake things up. But the, the, the races ended in the primaries and you know, we had name brand candidates running for governor as Democrats, running as NRA Democrats, running as, you know, focusing on middle of the road issues like education funding and you know, important issues, but not focusing on some of the issues that are now like in the fabric of Democratic politics. And I think that started really changing back in 2018 when Stacey Abrams ran for governor here and said, look, Democrats shouldn't run as Democrat lights. You should embrace those issues. Right? Talk about limiting gun expansions, talk about abortion rights, talk about LGBTQ rights. These are all normal things now for Democrats to talk about. But in Georgia, they really kind of were, at least for statewide candidates up until candidacy. And so I think she helps show that there is a path. Although she of course did not win, but she came within a point and a half. But again, that election 2018, the real takeaway beyond that was that Democrats started making these giant inroads in the, in the Atlanta suburbs. And while she lost, Lucy McBath is a congresswoman from the north Atlanta suburbs. She won flipped the same suburban district where I actually live that the Jon Ossoff had lost in the special election just a few months before. So start carving out that path. And then of course in 2020 and 2021, Senators Warnock, Ossoff win those epic runoffs. Joe Biden captures Georgia for the first time since 92 by even make building a further lane in with those independent minded swing voters.
- [07:09]
A
Well, look, we've got a jam packed show here, so we're going to get into it just because of all the races I alluded to at the top. And even if you're not following Georgia politics super closely, I still think you're going to love this episode because there are a lot of races, a bunch of things that matter that maybe you're not paying attention to, but people should be because they are going to matter. There's a lot of stuff Though that to me is a signal about politics in general that I think are worth turning over. So let's start with the U.S. senate race. And I gotta tell you, I wasn't following this super closely on the Republican side. I. I will admit to a little bit of Ossoff curiosity, but I just hadn't been following the Republican side, which is different world for me these days. But okay, so you've got Derek Dooley, the former University of Tennessee head football coach. Just we love in our football coaches in the Republican Party these days. And two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter. Okay, so most of the polling has shown Mike Collins in the lead, but he's likely to end up in a runoff with either Carter or Dooley. Does that sound right?
- [08:08]
B
Yep.
- [08:09]
A
Well, the voters in our focus groups did not seem particularly jazzed about their choices or about the Republicans chances against John Ossoff. Let's listen.
- [08:16]
B
Haven't done enough research on them, but just like Ossoff's just got to go. I mean, my wife's Jewish and she doesn't even like it.
- [08:26]
A
I definitely want to do more homework on my Collins and Buddy Carter. I do find with Derek Dooley, the first thing I thought was, are we really going with the UGA person again? I know they already tried that with Herschel Walker. Not gonna work. You know, they're really believing that this football stuff is gonna sway people.
- [08:44]
B
I don't know enough about any of
- [08:46]
A
them, but I do know about that Oz off dude. And, yeah, I don't want to vote for him.
- [08:52]
C
You know why I'd vote for Buddy Carter? Because he looks like past AJ It's a sorry state of affairs when we feel. When basically Ossoff is. Is solidly in control and we can't muster a candidate. I think of three the folks have talked about. The two congressmen are not shining lights. And so the choice is the two. Two congressmen who aren't shining lights or a total outsider who, despite Kemp going with him all over the place, doesn't seem to have rallied much support or any public presence from my understanding. Basically, Collins is a crook. So that's in my circle of people. He's perceived as the ethics violation that he's being charged with around, I guess, using campaign money for personal gain and thing. He's refused to respond to the congressional investigators. And so he's got a stench around him that's not going to help him be elected. And I think Buddy Carter is an okay guy, but these are two insider Congress guys. And so two insider not particularly well known Congress guys versus Ossoff with a huge war chest, recognition and good constituent services.
- [10:11]
B
That's.
- [10:11]
C
That's a long shot. So that's why, by process of elimination, I find myself saying, what the heck, Hail Mary. You know, get the outsider guy. And, you know, maybe that would at least change the dynamics of the office or the dynamics of the election.
- [10:28]
A
All right, Greg, I want to tell you why I love focus groups. Yeah. Because in a poll, you cannot hear voters do these dejected sighs. The, like. I mean, Ossoff is just gonna, like. I mean, I was. I was genuinely a little surprised listening to this one. And this is why, just for the listeners, why I think this is a really important episode because it goes to the psychology of how Republicans are feeling. Now. This is specific to these races where they don't love any of these candidates, but I also think it's just part. And also they're like, I hate Ossoff, but also he's kind of good at this. And, like, people seem to like him. So are people in the state, like, are Republicans just kind of giving up on this one? What's the vibe there?
- [11:09]
B
I mean, they're not giving up, but you can hear there's that fatalism in their voices, like, oh, this is doomed. And they're also resounding opposition to Ossoff. Right. I mean, that came through, too. Even the folks who, you know, complimented him for connecting with voters and finding ways to, you know, stay on message. And all the many kudos that go Ossoff's way from those folks, they're, you know, they want them out of office, but they're worried about their chances. And partly it's because of the field. Right. If Governor Kemp was in this race, I bet this. That focus group would sound very different. But he decided not to run. And he was sort of the consensus Republican candidate who Trump was going to get behind and the party power brokers are going to get behind, and the Senate leaders of Washington were getting behind. And then out of all things, not only did he not run, but then he recruited someone who was not on anyone's list. Derek Dooley. You know, he's a famous name in Georgia. Dooley, because his dad was the UGA football coach. He's from Athens. He actually grew up with the governor in Athens, Georgia. Um, but he's not remotely someone who is seen as a potential candidate. And he's. He's come into his own in the last year. He's been on the campaign trail nonstop, and he's learned A lot about being a candidate, but you can tell from those voters that most of them are still undecided. Our poll just a few weeks ago showed that more than half of likely Republican voters are undecided in the Senate race. So you can definitely sense that in those comments. And they don't feel like there is this great alternative to Ossoff, you know, a Kemp like alternative or even like a second tier Kemp like alternative. Mike Collins is the front runner, but there are deep worries, and you can hear it from folks who worry that he'll get. He'll be clobbered among those swing voters, among those suburbanites. You know, he's like a MAGA warrior. Tough talking, brash, you know, provocative. He's all over Twitter with all these incendiary statements over his congressional career. But is that going to play well? And in, in Sandy Springs, Georgia? Right. These, these formerly Republican bastions that have now gone blue, where Republicans are going to need to make inroads. And that's the concern right now.
- [13:07]
A
Wait, you just said something, though, that, that caught my attention. Would Trump have endorsed Kemp if Kemp ran? Because that is because he endorsed Purdue like his opposition last time, and he hates Kemp. I don't know if he hates Kemp, but that they have famously feuded because Kemp has been one of the few Republicans to not totally bend the knee in the way so many other people have.
- [13:28]
B
Yeah. And their feud goes Even before that 2020 election, there was stuff about whether he read Trump in over Senator Kelly Leffler's appointment, all these other things during the pandemic. But, you know, things have settled down. There was a flame up on 2024 at the campaign trail, like near the end of the campaign. And then kind of both sides got together and said, let's call a truce. And that truce up until this taping, as far as I know, has lasted. The governor told me just a few days ago that he talks to President Trump fairly regularly. They've stayed on good accord. And yeah, I think that. I think the White House would have gotten behind Kemp had he decided to run.
- [14:05]
A
Why didn't he run?
- [14:06]
B
He didn't want to. I mean, I think it boils down to that he's been in public office now eight years as governor, years before that as Secretary of state, before that he was a state senator. He's done this for a while. And, and I think there's a part of him who thinks he could run in 2028 for U.S. senate against Warnock. There's a part of them who might want to explore a presidential run if this was a different mood of a Republican Party. But I think there's also part of them who wants to go back to Athens and do something else.
- [14:32]
A
I'd be interested to see how a camp would play to a national audience In a post Trump world that's like an interesting experiment I would love to kick the tires on. Just out of interest. Okay, you told us who you think is the strongest candidate there. Who did you say? Collins.
- [14:49]
B
Well, Collins is the front runner, but Collins also comes with all those those setbacks to be interesting to see how he tries to message to those swing voters that don't really matter as much in the Republican primary but certainly matter in a general.
- [15:00]
A
So let's shift to the governor's race. I'm going to break down the key players in a moment, but first I just want to take a listen to how worn out these Republicans also were about this race and how much trouble they were having making up their minds.
- [15:15]
B
Let's listen.