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- [00:03]
A
Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. Happy Juneteenth, Sarah.
- [00:12]
B
Oh yeah, I gotta turn you down. You're so, you're like, you're so, you're like, you're coming in so hot. Ready to come Friday? Yeah, yeah.
- [00:22]
A
I am gonna argue to you later in the show that this year Juneteenth is the real July 4th.
- [00:29]
B
I'd buy that. I'll go with it.
- [00:31]
A
Yeah, sure, buy that for a dollar. Okay, but first we're going to start with some news because. And here we have to be careful as we are sitting down to tape at 9:30 on Friday, Juneteenth morning, it looks as though the memorandum of understanding is in a little bit of trouble. The problem is by the time you actually hear this in like four hours, maybe the memorandum of understanding will be totally dead or maybe it'll be gold plated and back on, who knows? Because that's the world we live in. We have a chaos agent as the President of the United States. But as we're sitting down the tape, Sarah, it sure looks like Israel is trying to blow up the deal by, by fighting in Lebanon. Yes.
- [01:22]
B
Yeah. And look, just really quickly you, you took a victory lap on tnl, as is your want and deservedly so. But it was here that you made the prediction and with a lot of certainty. And so, you know, you went all in on this idea that Trump was going to performatively sign this at the 2-50th motocross UFC fight. He would announce before he would announce it. Right. That it was very important.
- [01:51]
A
And I said it would be a fake deal. I said it would be a fake, wouldn't actually solve anything. It would just punt everything down the road.
- [01:57]
B
That's right. Because my pushback. Or I was like, I was with you. That psychologically that was. But I was also like, but you know, Israel's gonna get a vote in this. This was a really good example of a JBL is always right and Sarah is always right coming together to make a full picture of, of he announced the deal, he wanted the spectacle, you knew all of the psychological ways in which he was going to be. And then of course, where we are right now is that Trump's not the only person who gets to be part of this deal. The Iranians have a say, the Israelis have a say. Looks like Hezbollah over in Lebanon. I mean, and this was always. The problem is Trump. Trump's like, hey, we're just going to pack up and Go home. Once you've been there for three months and once other tectonic plates in the geopolitical forces around the globe, like Trump's idea of America first and America alone seems to be that things start and stop with us as opposed to there is a whole world out there and like, we can still be the big dog. But that doesn't mean these other people don't exist and don't have their own, their, their own priorities and things that they're focused on. And Israel does not like our deal with Iran. And by the way, that's good because our deal with Iran is. I'm not going to swear. It is. It is. It's excrement. And oh, by the way, as a quick aside, your piece. I, It's a bit that I don't read JBL's pieces. I mostly do. Tell you which one I didn't read was the one with the photo of J.D. vance with his face covered in. I, I do not care for the scatological nature of it all.
- [03:45]
A
You were not alone in not reading that. Lots of people didn't read it.
- [03:48]
B
It was gross.
- [03:49]
A
I'm, I'm sorry. Take it up with the, the art director. I just write the words.
- [03:57]
B
It's too bad because the JD Vance of it all is a fun, is a fun side story that we should discuss in all of this.
- [04:07]
A
Can we?
- [04:07]
B
Can we.
- [04:08]
A
Boy, there's so much to unpack on this. Let me start with one question. So you say that the deal is a bag of excrement. I agree. Do you think there was any better to be had? Because my argument from the beginning has been, this is where we'll end up and this is where it has to go. Like, there is no way to get better. There's no door number three.
- [04:32]
B
You know, here is where. And this has been much picked over now, so we don't have to spend a ton of time on it. But, but Trump's G7 speech was truly a jaw dropping display.
- [04:46]
A
Truth. He's just dropping truth bombs.
- [04:50]
B
Yeah. So this is, this is my understanding of it as I've watched unfold. Trump goes to the G7 and says, hey man, what are we supposed to do? They get to have missiles. They gotta defend themselves. JD Vance is on this tour. So we went and dropped a bunch of. And this is, this is why I don't necessarily buy this idea of what else were they supposed to do? No, I think they are absolutely bungling their way through this in ways that other people would see. Ways in which to get out of this without it being the most humiliating defeat. You don't have to like hand it to Iran on the way out. Like Trump has gone from we are going to bomb you into the stone Age, we're going to end your civilization. We need absolute surrender. We need the straight open to now saying, these guys are okay, they're pretty good, we got to integrate them into the global economy. Like this is, this is, made friends with them.
- [05:52]
A
Sarah.
- [05:53]
B
Yeah, I know this is not about that. He could have pulled out and said, look, we're not getting anywhere. We don't trust the Iranians. This is Israel, Israel, you know, fight on. But America is going back to America first or whatever. Instead he said, we're going to give you $300 billion in integrate you. And it gave them absolutely everything, gave them legitimacy on the world stage. Like this is, it is bananas how bad this is for a guy who got elected. In part, I mean, I would say one of the big, his big foreign policy thing that he pushed, there was a reason to elect him was that Obama's deal with Iran was so weak and so bad. Trump's, Trump's deal is so bad that like the, the line, you know, Obama's line is a dot to him. He's looking backwards at a dot. Because the line. Anyway, I am, I am, I am genuinely stunned by how bad this deal is and I am genuinely stunned that they don't seem to know how to handle the Israel of it all here.
- [07:03]
A
I agree that the deal is horrible, but these things are very path dependent. And having made all the decisions we've made to get to this point where global strategic oil reserves are running as low as they are and Iran has operational control of the strait, what is the alternative? I just don't, I mean the alternative really is, well, full scale invasion which isn't possible because there isn't enough public support. Right. And because we have no allies, because Trump gave the allies the finger. And so having made all the choices that Trump made to get to this point, I don't think there was any other deal to be had. I mean it was, it was this. Or keep futzing around and waiting and with every week that goes by, the price gets higher. Probably. You know, like I, I just,
- [08:02]
B
this
- [08:02]
A
is, we are where we are because Trump put us here. Now that doesn't mean he shouldn't have this hung around his neck. He should. But again, I just don't think we could have done better.
- [08:13]
B
I just, the extent to which this is not over is very important.
- [08:18]
A
Oh, right.
- [08:19]
B
That, that's the thing that I really want to make clear is like we are, this whole thing is live them signing. The thing is meaningless from a benefits standpoint. However, it is very meaningful from a surrender. Give the Iranians what we. What they want standpoint.
- [08:40]
A
And we, we should talk a little bit about the allies stuff while we're here. There's an interesting little. Aside from the G7 with the American President and the Prime Minister of Italy. Prime minister. President of Italy. Prime minister, I think of Italy. Sarah, you have this in front of you.
- [08:58]
B
I do. This is, this is amazing stuff. So Georgia Maloney, I guess it's Georgia.
- [09:06]
A
Georgia was supposed to be.
- [09:08]
B
She's the Italian Trump guys. She's the Italian Trump and she even kind of looks like Ivanka Trump. She's actually been, as a right wing populist, she has been way less damaging. She's actually been like, like Italy likes her. She's doing, she's doing all right. And she's not as terrible as Trump, but she, Donald Trump says at the G7, she begged him like he's doing this. She begged like a dog. She begged him for a photo which he gave her because he felt sorry for her. Because Trump, his just casual misogyny just knows no bounds. And so she is like, calls bullshit on this immediately and says, I am shocked by Trump's utterly fabricated words. I am never shocked when Trump utterly fabricates words because those are the only words he puts out. I'm sorry he doesn't show the same determination against the enemies of the West. And bear in mind, me and Italy never beg. Okay, so that happens. And then Italy's foreign minister was supposed to come to the United States and he canceled the trip and said that the serious and offensive words of President Trump towards Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni offend all of Italy. For this reason, I've decided to cancel my visit to the United States scheduled for the next 21 and 22 of June. Italy's out.
- [10:45]
A
I mean, we are fine. We don't need allies.
- [10:48]
B
Yeah, well, it's a good thing we're such buddies with Iran now since we've decided to alienate all of our.
- [10:53]
A
At least we have Israel, right?
- [10:55]
B
Oh, oh, wait. Oh, hey, what do you, what do you make of the Israel of it all? Because I, to me, the fact that Israel basically said. Because the first. And this is what I don't understand, and maybe you can help me understand it. How did the United States decide we could negotiate on behalf of what Israel was going to do? We didn't include Israel in those discussions. But we decided, we said Israel won't do these attacks. And Israel was like, oh, no, we're going to keep doing these attacks.
- [11:28]
A
I mean, I can tell you why. I know the answer to that question. Because Donald Trump believes that Benjamin Netanyahu will do whatever he tells him to do. We know this because Donald Trump has said those words out loud. He said he'll do whatever I tell him to do. He believes this because he believes that he is more popular than Netanyahu within Israel. We know this because he said those words too. He said that he. Remember this is like two weeks ago. He's like, I'm 98% in Israel. I have 98. Do you remember that insane thing that he said?
- [12:00]
B
Yeah. He does not have that in Israel.
- [12:03]
A
Not no more. He don't. And because he believes that he holds over Israel's head American military aid and that if he were to decide, no, I don't like you, you're not my friend anymore, and turn off American military aid, he believes that a, the rest of the American political establishment would be fine with that. These days, pre2024, that would not have been true before the Israeli government decided that they wanted Donald Trump and not Joe Biden, they would have had friends in the Democratic Party. I don't think that's true anymore. And in the rising class of the Republican Party, they have no support either. So they've got just Trump. And the problem is, and I don't know if you've paid attention to this, but I've been watching like Israel, Israel op eds coming out over the last like 72 hours. And the, the leopard face eating aspect of it is stunning to me. Absolutely stunning. People be like, how he was the greatest, the greatest president ever, a world historical figure, and he, he, we're such friends. How could he do this to us? And it's like, I'm sorry, have you watched Donald Trump for the last 80 years of his life? Isaac Chotner did an interview with. You know, we're gonna have to, we're gonna have to talk about the Isaac Chotiner interview. And I will pull it up in a minute or two while we're talking. But he, he spoke with someone in Israel. I forget if the, I think he's in Israeli media. And he said almost his exact words. He's like, I just, you know. And Chotner was like, it's interesting you say that. You can't imagine he would betray you. Have you watched Donald Trump and the, I don't know if it's naivete or arrogance or genuine belief on the part of the Israelis that they thought that Trump. But I guess maybe this is true. Like, we see this throughout the Republican Party, right? John Cornyn thought it. Pam Bondi thought it. They all think, well, I'm his special little boy. You know, he really loves me. It's different with me.
- [14:26]
B
What?
- [14:27]
A
How do people do that?
- [14:28]
B
I do think it is a combination of narcissism and naivete. I think there's some combination in there. Yeah. Where they think, like, well, and I also wonder. This is. This is. When Trump negotiates, we don't actually see this part of him. But I suspect when Trump is in front of Pam Bondi, he treats her like she's his special little boy. He says, you know, you're the best. Because Trump is like a. You know, when he talks about, you know, I fell in love with whatever dictator, I think he lays it on pretty thick. And this is why you get people close to him saying he's not like people say he is, you know, and this is. Do you ever have this when you were younger, when you would have a friend of yours who liked somebody terrible, and you were like, why do you like them? And they'll say, well, he's never done anything bad to me. And I always thought, what a weird way to think about something.
- [15:28]
A
Seen him be bad to all these other people.
- [15:30]
B
To all these other people. And then it's like later on when the chips are down and that person turns on you, you're like, yeah, because they are not a good person. They just hadn't been mean to you yet. And so I don't know what it is. Well, that's what I suspect is the reason. But, you know, it is all knowable. I have. I don't know about you, but I have spent the last several days fighting really bad Sarah, who just wants to sit on Twitter and go, this thing that is happening was entirely predictable. You know how I know it was predictable? Because we predicted it over you fucking
- [16:12]
A
people yelled at us and said we had Trump derangement syndrome.
- [16:15]
B
Guys. The extent to which it was hammered into my head as a young conservative, that character is destiny. This is a phrase that you would hear in the sort of Clinton character is destiny. And you know what? I believe it. And that doesn't mean that I think somebody has to have perfect character or can't make mistakes or can't change, can't grow. In fact, I think growth is a positive characteristic. But if you've got a guy who has lied and cheated.
- [16:48]
A
And after he turns 80, that's when the real character growth happens.
- [16:52]
B
That's right. No, right.
- [16:53]
A
The first 80 years are just prologue to the real you coming out.
- [16:56]
B
Well, this is what I heard in the focus groups, right? It was like, well, I think the, the assassination attempt really changed him. You're like, nothing has changed him. Nothing. Every in his political life, in his professional life, in his personal life, he has cheated everyone. He has lied to everyone. And now Israel, now he's doing it on the world stage. And so again, I go back to the idea that anybody who couldn't see this coming was extremely bad at analysis. If you want, you listen to Erik Erickson or you watch Mark Levin or, or anybody on Fox News acting as though they are shocked that Trump is doing this. None of us were shocked. And it's because we knew who he was the whole time. And I don't know why you guys chose not to see it. And I got to tell you one other thing. If you're not sitting on Twitter watching this happen, you're missing.
- [17:52]
A
I promise you, I'm not a great show.
- [17:55]
B
As you watch people try to talk themselves into getting on side with this deal. It's incredible.
- [18:02]
A
Actually, that's the subject of today's triad, because there's, there are two people in particular I've been watching. The other thing that I think the Israelis maybe didn't quite understand is that they would have J.D. vance inside the house also trying to drive a wedge between Trump and Israel. Because for J.D. that's very important.
- [18:23]
B
That's right.
- [18:24]
A
J.D. needs Trump to get to where he is on Israel for the purposes of JD's coalition management going into 2028. And we have seen a lot of this. We've seen JD castigating the Israelis a lot. And he did that even in an interview with the New York Times, Ross Douthat. And we're going to talk about that. And we're going to talk about my feelings about Ross Douthit.
- [18:52]
B
It's such JVL meat. I saw that interview and I was very great length. This is what we're talking about.
- [18:58]
A
And because I'm going to tell you why I don't like Ross Douthet and I'll just spoil it. If you want a little bit of tease, it's because he and J.D. vance are the same person. I will explain that afterwards for the people who would like to subscribe. So if you want to get in on the rest of the secret podcast, come become a member of Bulwark plus join us. We make almost everything free. You can get 95% of our content for free. We hold back a tiny little bit. We hold back my newsletter. We hold back part of this show. That's basically it. Come and join us.
- [19:36]
B
And when you come and join us, the thing that you get is if you think, well, man, if I can get 95% of it free, why, why bother? I'll tell you this. The comment section under the Pieces of the Bulwark are like, the best, the best reason. You want a great community of smart people talking about interesting things. You want to hear us get into it sometimes with people and have conversations, Come ride with us and get, like, be, be underneath in the conversation. There's a whole other world of bulwark conversations, and they're much better than just random YouTube comments.