JD Vance Sucks. So How Did He Get This Far?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Bulwark – “JD Vance Sucks. So How Did He Get This Far?”

Date: July 9, 2026
Hosts: Tim Miller & Sam Stein

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller and Sam Stein examine Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent public appearances, with a focus on his charisma (or lack thereof), rhetorical style, and political trajectory. Centering on Vance’s speech in Wisconsin as “fraud czar,” the hosts dissect both the personal failings and broader implications of his political approach. They also discuss the unfolding political drama concerning Graham Platner and speculate about possible replacements, injecting humor and sharp political commentary throughout.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. J.D. Vance’s Wisconsin Speech — Role and Relevance

• JD Vance, currently Vice President and “fraud czar,” gave a speech in Wisconsin about uncovering fraud. However, the hosts point out the irony of Vance focusing on local fraud instead of engaging with more pressing national and international crises.
  • “The deal is spiraling out of control… JD was the point man on the deal, and he’s in Wisconsin.” (Tim Miller, 01:32)
  • They note the disconnect between Vance’s assignment to “fix” big issues and his actual focus.

2. The “Charisma Vampire” – A Style Problem

• Vance’s lack of charisma and awkward speechmaking are dissected. Both hosts agree that his delivery is “devoid of charisma,” often falling flat and feeling rehearsed or unnatural.
  • “He winds up these stories… you get more—at best—a chuckle out of it… And then he’s like, okay, moving on.” (Sam Stein, 02:21)
  • They wonder how someone so uninspiring managed to ascend politically: “How did he get so far in politics?” (02:45)

3. The Cookie Story — An Awkward Metaphor

• Vance’s attempt to use a “cookie story” as a metaphor for election fraud falls flat and draws open ridicule from the hosts.
  • JD Vance: “When I hear a guy protesting out of nowhere, ‘I did not do any election fraud,’ it makes me wonder why is that guy protesting so aggressively? It’s a little odd.” (JD Vance, 03:21)
  • The hosts note that the analogy makes little sense and seems mistakenly self-referential, considering the Republican history of election fraud rhetoric.
  • Tim deadpans: “For the story to make sense, they would be the boy that had stolen the cookies. That was Trump.” (04:14)
  • They also note the stilted performance: “He looks down at his notes. ‘Tell the cookie story’ is probably written there somewhere.” (Sam Stein, 04:27)

4. The “Welfare Queen” Callback — Racial Dog Whistle

• Vance singles out a black woman in his speech as a symbol of public fraud, explicitly referencing her “smug look” and Louis Vuitton bag, while displaying an unrelated black woman, trying to clarify she “did nothing wrong.”
  • JD Vance: “Look at this woman in the front with the smug look and the Louis Vuitton bag… quite literally stole from young mothers who needed prenatal care.” (JD Vance, 05:30)
  • Tim critiques both the optics and substance: “Why didn’t you crop it?... It’s just so nasty.” (Tim Miller, 06:01)
  • Sam Stein explicitly calls out the reference as a “welfare queen” dog whistle originating from Reagan’s playbook and notes the racial undertones and lack of originality.
    • “That’s the playbook. It’s find a black woman who has something luxurious and who committed an act and then paint a broad brush… It enrages me because it’s so nasty and honestly a little bit racist and also just frankly, unoriginal.” (Sam Stein, 07:02)
  • The hosts discuss how this rhetorical tactic seeks to stoke resentment and mislead on the issue of welfare fraud.

5. Self-Awareness (or Lack Thereof)

• The hosts mock Vance for calling others “smug” when his own demeanor fits the bill.
  • “JD calling anybody else smug… You are like, the picture of you is next to smug in the encyclopedia.” (Tim Miller, 08:46)

6. Running Political Gags & Banter

• Meta-commentary as they joke about each other’s personalities and recurring podcast habits, mimicking Vance’s storytelling flaws for comedic effect.
  • “Maybe I was just doing one of the J.D. Vance cookie stories right there.” (Tim Miller, 09:27)

7. Platner’s Political Downfall and the Patrick Dempsey (McDreamy) Speculation

• Transitioning from Vance to breaking news about Graham Platner, the hosts discuss Platner’s likely resignation and who might run in Maine.
  • They joke about Tim’s obsession with random online rumors and polling related to Patrick Dempsey possibly running for office.
  • The humor continues:
    • “Patrick Dempsey McDreamy, who looks better than ever right now… I thought it was a troll… but it’s real.” (Tim Miller, 10:21)
    • “Tim’s algorithm has got to be so fucked right now.” (Sam Stein, 11:33)
  • They riff about celebrity candidates and Dempsey’s “acted experience” as a basis for health care policy—a tongue-in-cheek jab at the “lived experience” political trope.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Vance’s political rise:
  • “Sucking up to people is the answer to that.” – Tim Miller (03:08)
• On the ‘cookie story’/analogy:
  • “What is the election?… Donald Trump is the one… always talking about election fraud. For the story to make sense, they would be the boy that had stolen the cookies. That was Trump.” – Tim Miller (04:14)
• Calling out racialized attacks:
  • “It is so, you know, nasty and honestly a little bit racist and also just frankly, unoriginal.” – Sam Stein (07:57)
• On smugness:
  • “You are like, the picture of you is next to smug in the encyclopedia.” – Tim Miller (08:46)
• Podcast banter:
  • “Maybe I was just doing one of the JD Vance cookie stories right there.” – Tim Miller (09:27)
  • “Tim's algorithm has got to be so fucked right now.” – Sam Stein (11:33)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• JD Vance’s Absence from Crisis Response & Speech Opening: 01:00 – 02:00
• Discussion of Charisma and Cookie Metaphor: 02:00 – 04:30
• Racial Dog Whistle and ‘Welfare Queen’ Analysis: 05:30 – 08:00
• Smugness Riff & Banter: 08:40 – 09:40
• Graham Platner News & Patrick Dempsey Speculation: 10:00 – 13:30

---

Tone & Style

The hosts' tone is irreverent, sarcastic, and conversational, mixing sharp political analysis with in-jokes and playful mutual roastings. Their critical examination of J.D. Vance combines detailed deconstruction of political messaging with cultural context and humor, making the episode both scathing and entertaining.

---

Takeaways

• JD Vance is seen by the hosts as charisma-deficient, opportunistic, and unoriginal, often relying on recycled political tropes—most notably racially-tinged welfare fraud imagery.
• Their analysis serves as a warning about the persistence and effectiveness of simplistic, racially coded political appeals—even when delivered ineptly.
• The banter over current political rumors (Platner, Dempsey) provides a moment of levity and topical commentary, highlighting both the absurdity and human drama in U.S. politics circa 2026.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark. I've got a duo for you. Just the two of us, me and managing editor Sam Stein. We had a delicious trio planned for you where we're giving you a update on what's happening with Masturbating Manny on the mall and many of the other characters from Trio videos past. But Will Sommer had some technical difficulties, so that's just a teaser. All right, press the little alarm bell. Subscribe to Feed and. And me and Salmon will be back, you know, sometime in the next 24 hours or so. In the meantime, our vice president, The Charisma vampire, J.D. vance, was in Wisconsin as part of his news role as fraud czar. He's fraud czar and charisma vampire, and he was discussing the fraud that they're uncovering. It's interesting. They used to fly all the way to Wisconsin since there's so much fraud happening, like, in his office. But, okay, he gave a speech there. And I guess I'm going to do a couple of the clips. But, you know, thoughts about the vice president's performance today is.

[B]

Well, two thoughts. One is it wasn't all that long ago that he was in Islamabad or Vienna or whatever, like, trying to make this deal and talking about how the all those cool Iranians that he met along the way. And like, this thing's imploding right now. And JD Is not, you know, they're not like, hey, JD go fix it.

[A]

It's just, you know, you're in Wisconsin, he's in Wisconsin.

[B]

Why don't you take. Go to go to Wisconsin this week? Take this one off.

[A]

Yeah. The deal is spiraling out of control. The war is accelerating. We're literally, we might have made Carg Island, Trump said today. And JD Was the point man on the deal. And, like, he's in Wisconsin. So that's a very literally, as he's

[B]

speaking sitcom is tweeting out, we're launching more strikes. I mean, I'm laughing, but I want to cry inside because that MOU lasted a couple days and that's it. So great job on this point.

[A]

And one of the moments in the speech, like, J.D. like, weirdly kind of like, looks down at his phone and is like, hey, I might get a text. And it's kind of, it's almost. It's pretty melancholy. It's kind of sad. It's like, oh, man, maybe it's the president calling to text me or calling or texting to ask me about the deal that I struck with Iran and Maybe he wants my input on the strikes. And they're like, nope, not the president.

[B]

Not the President. Go on, local reporter, ask your question. Yeah, that is a good point. It does seem a diminishment of sorts. But then the other thing is what you talked about is just like this, just sort of devoid of charisma element to him, where he kind of winds up these stories and, you know, he's kind of workshopped them a little bit, or maybe he hasn't wound them up and that's the problem. And you're kind of waiting for the real kicker or the laugh line. And then you get more. At best, you get a chuckle out of it. And then there's some point that he's making into it, but the point doesn't really make sense. And you're like, I don't get the metaphor. And then he's like, okay, moving on. And you're like, man, someone who lacks that type of je ne sais quoi, that charisma, how did he get so far in politics?

[A]

Sucking up to people is the answer to that. Let's play one of those stories he tells. A cookie story?

[B]

Yeah, a cookie story. It's weird.

[A]

It's not. Ooky cookie. Thank goodness. Let's watch.

[C]

That is. You know what it kind of reminds me of? Like a couple weeks ago, I get home to the Naval Observatory, the nicest public housing anywhere in the United States of America, and my 6 year old greets me and I love my little boy, but he's a little mischievous. And he gives me a big hug. He says, daddy, I'm glad you're home. I didn't steal any of the cookies. I said, huh, that's interesting that you volunteered that when I wasn't even talking about that. Well, of course he stole the cookies. So when I hear a guy protesting out of nowhere, I did not do any election fraud. I did not do any election fraud, it makes me wonder, why is that guy protesting so aggressively? It's a little odd.

[A]

I just, I mean, does cookies have

[B]

to do with anything?

[A]

What?

[B]

I mean, guilty conscious, I guess. Yeah.

[A]

What is the election? It's Donald Trump is the one that. It's them that are always talking about election fraud.

[B]

Right.

[A]

For the story to make sen. They would be the boy that had stolen the cookies. That was Trump. He did a whole stop the steal thing.

[B]

Now he's saying I didn't do election fraud. No, he's saying I didn't do election fraud. Therefore I don't know the whole thing. I don't know, it's just also, he looks down at his notes. It's like, tell the cookie story is probably written there somewhere. I don't know why he's always putting down his head.

[A]

Go home to the Naval Observatory. The observatory. The FPS house.

[B]

Get the public housing line in there.

[A]

Yeah. I mean, Dick Cheney didn't talk like that. I don't know. The whole thing is just. It's a really trying hard. So with JD there's always kind of the two sides of him. There's just like the charisma. Less kid that has that in high school was kind of wearing the eyeliner and wasn't very cool. And you've seen the pictures of him from high school. He was just the outsider. There's that boy, like his inner child that wants to be loved and is trying to kind of be Josh with the cool kids. That side of J.D. that's kind of sad. Then there's the dark, mean side of JD and we get to see a little bit of that as well during the speech. Let's watch.

[C]

You need it. And I want to. I want to point to this woman. Now. I want to be clear that the woman in the back did nothing wrong. But look at this woman in the front with the smug look in the Louis Vuitton bag. A woman who quotes, quite literally stole from young mothers who needed prenatal care. And the state of Wisconsin, ladies and gentlemen, had to scale down that program because of insufficient funds.

[A]

So a couple of things there. It's hard to see. You can pull it up because of the glare. Not really good stage work. But you can see the picture. It's kind of a black woman who's apparently holding Louis Vuitton bag. I'm not as familiar with bags as J.D. vance's handbags. And then there's another black woman behind our. And it's just like, now this other black woman I just happened to put up here, she did nothing wrong. I want to make that clear. And it's like, well, why didn't you crop it? I mean, we have advanced photo editing tools now that we can use right here on our cellular devices. And so it's pretty strange you included that up there. And then he's like this other woman with her smug look. And it's just like, I don't know, this woman might have done something bad with the fraud and people that defraud the public should feel should face consequences for that. Just like Donald Trump and his family and the Wyckoff family and others that are doing that. Should also face consequences. But, like, just the manner in which he does it is just so nasty.

[B]

Oh, yeah, it's like classically nasty, bullish behavior. And the other thing is, like, so unoriginal. Right? Like, everyone who's been through these types of political arguments can tell right away what this is. This is the attempt to revive welfare queens like Reagan did. And there's plenty of literature on welfare queens and the attack he made. And I would encourage people, sort of a seminal story by Josh Levin and Slate, who actually found the actual welfare queen, a woman named Linda Jackson who was from Chicago. She was like, you know, built welfare and was riding around on a convertible. And it was a real story. Like, she did commit welfare fraud in addition to a lot of other fraudulent behavior back in the 70s, 70s. And Reagan capitalized on this and did so quite effectively. But that's the playbook, right? Like, that's the playbook. It's find a black woman who has something luxurious and say, and who committed an act and then paint a broad brush. In this case, the argument he's implicitly and explicitly making is black people are on welfare who are committing fraud and using it to buy Louis Vuitton bags. And, you know, it's both unoriginal and it's misleading because, yeah, there's fraud. There's going to be fraud in government programs, but like, you know, in whiskey in Minnesota, they're going after these. These agencies that were already being targeted by prosecutors, and then the prosecutor there left because of the ICE crackdown, and then they're pardoning all these fraudsters. Like they are literally pardoning all these people who are committing fraud in Medicare and so on and so forth. So this thing kind of enrages me because it is so, you know, nasty and honestly a little bit racist and also just frankly, unoriginal.

[A]

Yeah. Also, JD Calling anybody else smug. It's like, come on. You know, it's like me calling somebody a smart ass or you calling somebody interrupts too much. You know, it's like, okay, J.D. like you are like the picture of you is next to smug in the encyclopedia. We don't have encyclopedias anymore, Claude. When you ask Claude, show me the photo of a smug man. The photo looks mysteriously like J.D. vance.

[B]

Am I allowed to talk now? I don't want to interrupt while you say that. I interrupt too much. You call me a smart ass all the time. You do.

[A]

You are a smart ass.

[B]

Okay, there you go.

[A]

Moving on. Okay, maybe I was just doing One of the J.D. vance cookie stories right there. You Know where I was like I had a concept, was spitballing on it. Point being, JD shouldn't be calling everybody smug because he's a smug son of a bitch.

[B]

Fair enough. And I am going to continue to interrupt. I don't give a shit.

[A]

Great. If people think of that much and the people love it. Let's move on to the other big story of the afternoon in politics circles. Who might replace Graham Platner.

[B]

Are you in an emotionally level place to do this story? Do you need me to take it out?

[A]

It's just one disappointment after another following politics the last few years, Sam. So to be honest, I've grown some pretty thick rhinoceros skin dealing with setbacks like the one I'm about to share. But Graham Platner is, at the time of this taping. Maybe this will change by the time we publish it. Still huddled in his home with advisors trying to decide what to do. Everyone has told him to resign. Maybe he thinks he can gut it out. I think in Maine, I don't see how this works in the Democratic side and the Republican side, many people have gutted out controversies like the Democratic electorate has. Has different standards. And also in Maine, they have ranked choice voting. So the Democrats could actually run a write in third alternative that could conceivably win, I would think, in a. In a ranked choice voting, depending on. On how things shake out. So anyway, things aren't great for him, but he's still deciding what to do. TikTok. In the meantime, a little parlor game has kind of sprouted up. Who might the Democrats replace him with? Who else is out there? A name that I, I have joked about several times on the YouTube page that for some reason kept being mentioned was Patrick Dempsey McDreamy, who looks better than ever right now. Let's put up this picture of him from today's Portland Press Herald announcing that he's not gonna run. Literally, when you sent this to me, I thought it was a troll. Like, I thought you'd had somebody in the office mock up an AI thing, but it's real.

[B]

Can we step back a second? Because Tim's. Just so people know, we're in Slack in this channel, and Tim's sort of like Tim's been salivating over these. I don't know where this polling data has been coming from that shows that he's got great favorabilities. And also Tim's trying to manifest this into existence and Tim finds some random ass Twitter account. I honestly don't know where this, your algorithm has got to be so fucked right now. Someone named at NCT Democrat underscore. Who is this person? I don't know. But Tim finds this tweet with a siren emoji saying new Patrick Dempsey weighing options on center race over the next two days. Considering jumping in. It links to a Spotify. I don't. How is hex on taps? Okay, I don't know how Tim found this but like within two hours Dempsey has put out a op ed in the Portland Press Herald saying why I'm not running for the U. S. Senate. And I too thought it was like fake. I was like is this from like 6 years ago or something? Because the picture looks great. He looks great.

[A]

Really.

[B]

You know, like a guy who could win a main senate race.

[A]

Rugged and Handsome Dempsey 2028. So he starts writing. Honestly reading about this. I've been kind of doing it as a little troll talking about it. I mean I also obviously kind of handsome but yeah, people are really asking him. He has. I should mention this just before I joke a little bit that he has started the Dempsey Center. I made a joke which I thought was pretty clever. Okay, I was pretty happy with this joke and it was, you know how the libs are always talking on people's lived experience. And I made a joke about how Patrick Dempsey could run for senate with a plan to fix health care based on his acted experience. It's a really bad joke. I tickled myself with that dad joke.

[B]

You're closer to JD.