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- [00:00]
Peter Hamby
When you live in the real world and people come to California, they're always like, oh, this place is pretty sick. Like it is. If everyone could afford to live in California, you would. You definitely would.
- [00:15]
Sarah Longwell
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week, we are going to California, where everybody loves the economy, the weather, and the scenery. But a lot of people, even Democrats, are. Are kind of meh. About the state government. Soon to be presidential candidate Gavin Newsom is term limited out of office, and my guest calls the state's politics this year the purest distillation of the progressive id. That includes the crowded race to replace Newsom. The two front runners are a billionaire backed by people who hate billionaires and a milquetoast passive candidate seeking the approval of a party that wants exciting fighters, at least at the national level. We'll see about California. My guest today is Peter Hamby, founder of Puck News and a handsome, sophisticated Californian. What's up, Peter?
- [01:08]
Peter Hamby
Hey. My focus groupy mug is in the wash, so forgive me. It's good to see you, though.
- [01:12]
Sarah Longwell
Okay.
- [01:12]
Peter Hamby
Reporting from the Venice bureau for the Focus Group and the Bulwark.
- [01:16]
Sarah Longwell
We were out there last week, and so we got a. We got a good taste of what's happening out in California. But, you know, California because you're out there. It's a frequent recurring theme in your writing for Puck. But why should someone who doesn't live in California care about its elections?
- [01:33]
Peter Hamby
It's a great question. And by the way, that piece that I wrote that you mentioned, I wrote a few weeks ago or months ago, before Eric Swalwell's implosion, which I think got to something else we're talking about. Put aside the Los Angeles mayor's race, which I hope we can talk about, because the Spencer Pratt phenomenon isn't just about, you know, his politics and his attentional powers. It's also about. I think this would be something you and I would be interested in, the sort of failure of certain Democratic politicians to seize the moment. But the governor's race was interesting when Swalwell was in it for a variety of reasons. One, he was kind of running when I wrote that piece on sort of a version of what Gavin Newsom did his Prop 50 campaign on, which was a complicated sort of ballot measure about redistricting, maybe not that complicated, but for everyday voters. And so Gavin Newsom, with many millions of dollars, turned that race into a statement against Donald Trump. So stop the ICE raids. Stop the chaos. You know, Trump is anti democratic, etc. And so when Swalwell jumped in the race, his campaign, in a state that has many challenges, shaky budget crisis despite a lot of AI revenue coming in, homelessness, crime, affordability, and housing chief among them, probably, you know, Swalwell wasn't running too much on that. Despite being the nominal front runner for a while in the governor's race, he was running on just sort of like resistance stuff. And, you know, you can call it lib slop, but it was just like, I'm going to stand up to Donald Trump. I was part of the, you know, the House panel that ran his impeachment. Just Trump, Trump, Trump video content.
- [03:16]
Sarah Longwell
But we should note that was getting him to the top of the field.
- [03:19]
Peter Hamby
Yes, exactly. And so when I wrote that piece about the distillation of Democratic politics, it's not Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, where your favorite governor lives. It is a obviously liberal left state. But if you think about the ID of the Democratic voter that does participate in primaries and caucuses in 2028 even, it's just sort of a good temperature check about where they're at. And I should also mention, you know, California's electoral makeup looks a little different. You know, it's the. The electorate in the state is about 30% Latino. There's more Latino voters than black voters in the state. So it's not necessarily like a state like Michigan or South Carolina. But you had two Latino candidates. This is the governor's race. Have Javier Becerra, who's currently winning, who's sort of carving out a pro business moderate, stay the course lane while also having a serious charisma deficit. Antonio Villaragosa, also sort of in that moderate lane, former mayor of. But then you got Tom Steyer, who is spending over $200 million of his own money and is carving out the leftist progressive lane with the help of consultants who worked for Zoron and Graham Platner. And it's a little bit of an awkward fit because he's a billionaire and he's an old guy. And then you got like Katie Porter, the, you know, resistance mom who is also good on affordability issues, the Elizabeth Warren protege. You had Matt Mahan, who's been fizzling and probably won't make the runoff, who's backed by Silicon Valley tech money and a lot of sort of moderate pragmatists in the state who want plans for more housing and plans to deal with street homelessness in the state. And he had them. But there just wasn't really a lane For a moderate, for him to take off anyway, that's a long way of saying, if you're a Democrat, there's something for everybody in this primary. And all of them, by the way, are running on fighting Trump, fighting Trump, fighting Trump. But everyone's got a little bit of a different carve out in this space. And, you know, after Swaba left, voters including Latinos, kind of moved to Becerra and that was about what, six weeks ago and just kind of stayed there. And he's in the driver's seat heading into the primary on Tuesday. And as people know, hope they know California has a top two system. So the top two advance. The other thing is Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, the Fox News guy who has a British accent over a sheriff from Riverside County. And so Republicans kind of consolidated around Hilton, who will probably get one of those top two slots. And so it's coming down to Becerra, who has a lot of Newsom's people working for him and by the way, has a lot of just sort of the California establishment, business community, Realtors who don't want to be taxed more. You have medical associations, the power utilities, oil companies are all giving money to independent groups supporting Becerra, whereas Steyer is self funding and he's the progressive. Both of them are not super exciting to voters, but I think only one of them, if the polls hold, will move on to the general election. So that is my summary of the race before we get to your focus groups.
- [06:28]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that was incredible. That was a. You've got that thing on lock. I can't wait for you to do the LA mayors race. So we did a focus group of California Democrats for this show and some of the Democrats from last week's show with Adam Jennelson. We're also from California, so you may hear some familiar voices later in the show. We start every focus group with the same question. How do you think things are going in the country? And with Californians, we also started it with, you know, how are things going in the country? And how do you think things are going in California? So let's listen to what they told us just to set the table. Cost of living is higher than I'd like, but I know I pay to live in the best state in the Union.
- [07:09]
Peter Hamby
They're still not great because everything is still very expensive, from gas to cost of living to food. Definitely room for improvement in California, but I don't think it's getting any worse.
- [07:21]
Sarah Longwell
The only way I can describe it is dumpster fire, both here in California and across the nation.
- [07:28]
Peter Hamby
I'm more optimistic about California, but it's always been an expensive place to live. There's always been a lot of wealth disparity. You know, at least we're led democratically. So some of those ideals are very much in hand with my, my beliefs. Still a difficult place to live and make it and thrive.
- [07:48]
Focus Group Participant 1
I also agree that California is in a better place than the rest of the US But I'm also of the mind that like, well, just because like one area is better than the rest of the U.S. doesn't, like, you know, it's like a band aid to like the entire issue or just because some people are thriving doesn't mean that everyone's thriving. And for me in San Jose, I'm in a very primarily Latino, Hispanic area. And this is bad. I think education is absolutely abysmal, like across the whole US Right now. And that's kind of my passion. And where I come from, I think
- [08:23]
Focus Group Participant 2
I agree that things like, aren't great, but certainly better than the rest of the country. But I think that I agree with the point that it still doesn't excuse us so not trying to improve conditions within our own state. I live in San Francisco and it feels like recently the wealth disparity is extra apparent with like the, with like, you know, like a lot of AI companies like coming in and then comparing that to like the growing unhoused community.
- [08:53]
Peter Hamby
We're now what, like the fourth largest
- [08:55]
Sarah Longwell
economy in the world. So kind of doing okay there and feels like there is opportunity. But of course, California has always been
- [09:03]
Peter Hamby
and continues to be a very expensive place to live.
- [09:06]
Sarah Longwell
Generally speaking, like, I'm happy to be
- [09:09]
Peter Hamby
living here versus most other states in the country.
- [09:14]
Sarah Longwell
There's always room for improvement.
- [09:16]
Focus Group Participant 2
Of course, I've been in California most of my life, but I don't think that California, even as someone who is like, who has like a high income and works in tech and everything, it's still, still feels unaffordable here. And I don't see myself making a life in California. My plan is to live in California for as long as I need to to make money. But then when the moment comes, I think, I think I'm going to go somewhere more affordable.
- [09:45]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. So I have a slight temptation to raise the dichotomy between voters saying that they love California and they love the fact that it's always governed by liberals, while also lamenting that the costs are too high and it's like an unaffordable place to live. But instead of that I actually want to answer my own question from before around why California matters to a national audience, not just a California one. And to me, one of the implications is that both Gavin Newsom and potentially Kamala Harris are going to run for president, and especially Gavin Newsom will likely be a front runner. People right now are talking about Kamala being a front runner. I think that will not last based on what I hear from voters. Just because she's at the top of the polls. That's a. This really name recognition.
- [10:35]
Peter Hamby
Yes, that's correct.
- [10:36]
Sarah Longwell
We're far from. From being into that race. Also, I would just say for Kamala Harris, had she wanted to and had she decided to run for the governor of California, she would have immediately been the governor of California and feels like kind of a swing and a miss on that would have solved a lot of problems. Here's the question. Gavin Newsom should have an interest in the next person running California because it is tough. And I think it's hard for people who don't really realize that people in other states do not look at California the way that Californians look at California. Californians, even with the criticisms, they're like, we love California. It's great here. But other people look at California and say, I don't want to be like California. Especially people in Midwest states, like, they look at California as like a cautionary tale. And so for a guy like Newsom, what's it going to be like for him running for president when the fourth largest economy that he wants to preside over, like, is in kind of a rut economically?
- [11:34]
Peter Hamby
Yeah, no, I think there's. There's three things I want to pull out there that you said that are very interesting. So one, if you do live in the Midwest and you look at California and if you watch Fox News and the way they talk about California, you're like, you gross. A cautionary tale. This, like, mono party state where it's so expensive and people poop on the street and it's Gamora, it's like the socialist republic of California. But when you live in the real world and people come to California, they're always like, oh, this place is pretty sick. Like, it is. The problem is California's the best. If everyone could afford to live in California, you would. You definitely would. Okay, here's the problem. Every year, and this goes back, I just looked it up to 2001, but more, it's accelerated more recently. About a quarter million people are leaving the state every year. That's true. Like, that's a Republican narrative that's also based in fact, because people are going to places that are easier to live with lower tax burdens, including property tax burdens, which are really high, you know, even despite the Prop 13 revolution back in the day. You know, and this by the way, speaking of the Palisades fires, one reason that was so devastating, yes, rich people lived in the Palisades, but so did many middle class people who just had their houses forever and the property values just went up, up, up, up, up, up. And so now if you're rebuilding a house, you're trying to move one with interest rates the way they are, but to California property taxes, suddenly with your kitty gone, you can't afford to build a new house or move to a new house in California. Because over the last 20, 30 years, it's just become so expensive with property values. The people that are for can afford to stay here are wealthy people. The Public Policy Institute of California studied this. Like most people leaving the state are middle and low income people. And that's especially true in the Bay Area in Los Angeles, someone mentioned San Jose. And yeah, you can move out to the Valley or something, but it's still expensive. You got to move to Arizona or Wyoming or maybe Texas or whatever. And it's not like the Ben Shapiro, Joe Rogan, Elon Musk narrative where everyone's moving to Texas. You know, the guys who host the all in podcast, you know, are, aren't actually going to move from California. They're rich, they're fine. And so anyway, if you're Gavin Newsom and you're running for president, you're exactly right. You want the state that is central to your narrative. And if you listen to Gavin Newsom talk and talk and talk and talk, you know, he talks about innovation, education, climate, investments, you know, protections around abortion, civil rights, all the things he's done. And there's a voluminous number of legislation that, that he's passed in, you know, single party control Sacramento, and also executive orders that he's done. And California leads the nation in a lot of things. You know, car companies look to California tailpipe emissions, because what people do regulating cars in California, you know, the car companies have to build cars for the rest of the country and the rest of the countries or states, many of them typically follow. So all of that said, he has not endorsed in the governor's race for a successor. Yes, some of his people were working for Swalwell and were now working for Becerra, kind of like the hired gun mercenaries. But Newsom's Staying away from it, and I think smartly. But there are things in California that happen. Donald Trump targets California all the time. And, yeah, he might only be there for two more years, but he's going to continue targeting California for a variety of reasons, either through his US Attorneys or the Justice Department or with National Guard, whatever. There's also wildfires and earthquakes and then the affordability crisis and things you can't control. And so if Newsom is posted up in South Carolina talking to people and whoever's governor back home is doing things, one, differently than Newsom, like, like erasing parts of his record, or two, you know, Donald Trump is trying to make California look like a chaotic socialist hellhole using whatever tools he has in his toolkit. That's not going to help Newsom in some of these primary states, maybe with, like, liberal, progressive voters. But, you know, and I always say this, having lived in South Carolina and covered so many Democratic primaries there, that will either be the first state or one of them. You know, a lot of the electorates in these states are actually kind of pragmatic and moderate. That's why Bernie Sanders was never the nominee. And so, you know, they might have concerns about Gavin Newsom being too much of a liberal. And, and we could do a whole podcast with me going 100 miles an hour in this direction saying why Newsom is the best nominee and 100 miles in this direction saying why he's the worst nominee. It's really a confusing, confounding, interesting conversation to have. But I talked to some Joe Biden people the other day who anonymously, some of them, publicly, Susan Rice, have been very critical of Javier Becerra, saying he was kind of an empty suit as HHS secretary, hasn't really didn't bring any strategic thinking to his role in the Biden administration. And one of them said to me, look like if Becerra wins, which seems likely, Gavin is going to have to make sure that he's got good people around him, because this person was saying, I wouldn't trust him to run the enormous state of California in an emergency because he's not a nimble person. Again, that's their criticism. Other people defend Becerra, but it's a, it is a huge question for Newsom. Absolutely.
- [16:48]
Sarah Longwell
That's interesting. Well, let's, let's get into it. Okay, look, you already laid out the top two. I was going to do that, but you, you, you put it out there clearly and, like, for a minute, there was this slim chance it's going to be two Republicans, which is Democrats were needed to like hurry up and find somebody to make sure that they're in a runoff. Because once you're in the runoff, the chance that the democrat wins 6040 is pretty, pretty locked.
- [17:11]
Peter Hamby
Yeah, yeah. I mean at the state is, I mean, here's the actual registration data from a data nerd I know in, in the Bay Area. So in the state, the, the state is 45% Democrat, 25% Republican and then the rest 30%, no party preference. So yeah, I mean like typically what happens here, at least in recent years there has been a Republican governor since Schwarzenegger, one that yes, Republican voters will consolidate around the Republican, but there's just too many registered Democrats to over to for Republicans to really overcome that. And by the way, the other thing is with Trump, it's kind of eliminated the like the Bulwark style candidates who did exist here. You know, obviously you had Meg Whitman run for governor and miss back in 2010. But you know, there is the, a tradition of moderate Republicanism in this state. There's obviously the cradle of conservatism in Orange county can be more right wing, but you know, the moderate mayor of San Diego who might theoretically run, the Rick Caruso who might theoretically run it gets that Matt Mayhem thing I was mentioning earlier, like the business friendly moderate Republican and the business friendly moderate Democrat just get pulled apart into their corners by the choices on the ballot in this top two primary system. And it doesn't really leave any room for a sort of moderate Republican. And so you have, you know, Steve Hilton, by the way, is trying to pivot already to being a moderate Republican and maybe hoping he can win, but he just can't. He's got an R next to his name. He's been endorsed by Donald Trump.
- [18:43]
Sarah Longwell
He's on Fox News. It's Funn. I did know he had that show on Fox News and somehow I had forgotten it.
- [18:49]
Peter Hamby
Was it a weekend show? I kind of forgot too.
- [18:51]
Sarah Longwell
It's not like I watched it, but I would occasionally catch clips, you know, scrolling by when I was watching the debate and he opened his mouth the first time and I was like, oh yeah, it's that guy. And that guy's British. And, and listen, I love people who come to this country and want to serve it as elected officials. But, you know, not him.
- [19:11]
Peter Hamby
Schwarzenegger had an accent which he invokes every now and then. But that was again, different election and
- [19:16]
Sarah Longwell
a whole different, different person.
- [19:18]
Peter Hamby
Yeah.
- [19:20]
Sarah Longwell
So I want to talk about sort of Becerra, who is Joe Biden's HHS secretary and California's attorney general and Tom Steyer, because it really is coming down to those two, I think, in the polling. Tom Steyer, of course, a billionaire climate activist who ran for president in 2020. And so since SWAL dropped out, they've essentially been the front runners. So let's hear how the groups talked about each of them, and we'll start.