Sarah's Latest Focus Group Almost Broke JVL's Brain

Summary

Podcast Summary: Sarah's Latest Focus Group Almost Broke JVL's Brain

Podcast: The Bulwark
Host(s): JVL (Jonathan V. Last), Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller
Date: July 15, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Bulwark centers on a recent spate of deadly ICE shootings, the lack of public outrage or awareness, and Sarah Longwell’s sobering observations from her latest swing voter focus group. The conversation is emotionally charged, critical of policy failures, and delves into the disconnect between national crises and public attention. The hosts dissect the issue, vent frustration, and reflect on how such events register with the American electorate.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Good News” in 2026: Federal Agencies Pledge (Temporary) Restraint

• [00:24] JVL shares that DHS and ICE have announced they will stop detaining people in vehicles after recent lethal incidents.
• [00:46] Tim Miller and JVL highlight the depressing reality that merely halting car arrests is what passes for “good news” today, reflecting a grim status quo.

Notable Quote:

"ICE says they're going to stop murdering people in their cars. Good news. So here's what happened. Last week, Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was shot and killed by an ICE officer in Houston during a traffic stop. Yesterday, Joan Sebastian Guerrero was killed by ICE in Biddeford, Maine."
—JVL, [01:02]

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2. String of Deadly ICE Shootings (and Public Numbness)

• [01:37] Tim Miller expresses disbelief and rage at the senseless killings, pointing out both victims were not the intended targets.
• [03:00–04:39] Discussion covers broader patterns of violence, distinct lack of accountability (“the murdering department is going to investigate itself”), and the particular absence of national outrage, possibly because the victims were not American citizens.

Notable Quote:

"Both cases the person that they killed was not the person that they were looking for... it's hard to even imagine. I'm trying to think of a situation where like shooting somebody who is fleeing would be at all appropriate outside of the movies, I guess."
—Tim Miller, [01:52]

"You just get the death mark. But like in this case, it wasn't even the case. I mean like the guy had a work permit, so he's legal and he was no different than the people working on Donald Trump's golf courses."
—Tim Miller, [04:39]

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3. Personal Impact and Collective Apathy

• [05:16] Sarah Longwell introduces her focus group findings: swing state voters were wholly unaware of the shootings.
• Discusses how identification with victims is reduced when incidents lack widely-circulated video or involve non-citizens, leading to apathy.

Notable Quote:

"We asked about these shootings. They didn't know they'd happened, hadn't heard anything about them, just didn't even know... and I think this is indicative of two things. One point you've already made about the fact that these are not American citizens in the way that Alex Preddy and Renee Good were, where people can sort of put themselves... instead, it's something they feel like they identify with less."
—Sarah Longwell, [05:40]

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4. Media, Attention, and the Power of Visual Evidence

• [07:10–08:00] The hosts reflect on prior police killings that did spur public outrage, noting the critical difference made by widely-shared video evidence and social media discourse.
• Tim Miller nods to performative activism’s limits but recognizes that sharing and discussing these atrocities online is still preferable to silence or indifference.

Notable Quote:

"That is better than the alternative of nothing, you know... this is one area where it's meaningful, I do think, for people to like, post on, like, make sure your friends have seen this, because I do think a lot of people probably haven't."
—Tim Miller, [08:16]

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5. The Challenge of Indifference

• [09:28] Sarah shares the lesson from earlier focus groups: public disconnect isn’t new and often cuts across even the most shocking events.
• Draws on Elie Wiesel: “The opposite of love is not hate. It is indifference.”

Notable Quote:

"The opposite of love is not hate. It is indifference, which is Elie Wiesel... and like that emotion of indifference. And it's not even like that's what we're dealing with. And so, like, you have to sort of help shock the conscience of Americans."
—Sarah Longwell, [09:50]

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Memorable Moments

• [02:55] Tim Miller’s pointed criticism of Senator Susan Collins’s “wait-and-see” statement, highlighting feckless political responses.
• [04:10] Tim’s vivid description of the aftermath in Maine, noting the haunting image of a child in blue pajamas and unsettling crime scenes left unguarded.
• [10:29] JVL’s question back to Sarah: “Did they care?”—encapsulating the episode’s core anxiety about public empathy and engagement.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|----------------------------------------------| | 00:24 | DHS/ICE halts car detainments (temporarily) | | 01:02 | Recap of recent ICE shooting deaths | | 01:37 | Tim Miller's emotional reaction | | 05:16 | Focus group ignorance & public apathy | | 07:10 | The impact of visual evidence/media sharing | | 09:28 | Historic examples of indifference in America | | 09:50 | Elie Wiesel quote on indifference | | 10:29 | Direct question about voter empathy |

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Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is raw, incensed, and deeply troubled by the state and public’s response to violence. The hosts dramatize the urgency of the issue and lament a society seemingly resigned to preventable atrocities—especially against immigrants and marginalized individuals. They urge listeners—even skeptically—to at least acknowledge and share these realities, arguing that even performative engagement does more good than apathy.

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For listeners looking to reconnect with the episode’s heart, it is a bracing reflection on the perils of indifference and the ongoing challenge of keeping democracy—and humanity—at the center of American life.

Transcript

[A]

I am a little concerned that we seem to be getting numb to this stuff.

[B]

I'm not fucking numb.

[A]

Hello everyone, this is JVL here with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. We have some good news, some bad news, some bad news that has led to good news, some crazy news, all the news.

[B]

What's the good news? We have good news.

[A]

Well, the good news is that as of an hour or two before us taping, we have word that DHS and ICE are going to stop trying to detain people in their vehicles because they keep killing people.

[B]

That's the good news. And the good news?

[A]

That's the good news.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

That's what passes for good news in 2026. I'm sorry buddy.

[C]

Okay, well that good news is just a matter of the fact that Todd Blanche has a hearing coming up and they don't want him to have to answer for all of the people that are you shooting.

[B]

That's like the worst good news I've ever heard in my life. Honestly. Trying to think of a worse good news. Anyway. Great.

[A]

ICE says they're going to stop murdering people in their cars. Good news. So here's what happened. Last week, Lorenzo Salgado Araujo was shot and killed by an ICE officer in Houston during a traffic stop. Yesterday, Joan Sebastian Guerrero was killed by ICE in Biddeford, Maine. I am a little concerned that we seem to be getting numb to this stuff or that because it's not American citizens, people aren't as like up in arms. But I don't know, I mean you guys have been banging the drum on this and working, working hard to highlight this people's attention to it. Tell me what's going on.

[B]

I'm not numb. So can I go first, Sarah? Unfor I, I had to. I taped Pete yesterday. I pre taped the pod with Pete we'll talk about at the end. But like it was, this was all just happening and so like we like we did talk about it but only for like two minutes because I, I just, you know, we didn't have the facts to have a full conversation about it. And, and so I haven't really had a chance to pop off and it is so outrageous and insane that there have been two murders by agents of the state this week. Both cases the person that they killed was not the person that they were looking for. Both cases they killed the wrong person. In the main case, they didn't even give us the dignity of lying to us. In the main case that he was trying to Go after the officers. They just said he was trying to flee. As if that is like at all justification or rationale for killing somebody, for killing the wrong person. And it's like, it's hard to even imagine. I'm trying to think of a situation where like shooting somebody who is fleeing would be at all appropriate outside of the movies, I guess. Like a serial killer, you know, I mean, or somebody that is running that is like an acute violent threat to the community maybe, but like beyond that. Yeah. Federal agents shouldn't just be firing at people in Biddeford, Maine. This, this shooting was like 20 minutes from the bush compound in Kennebunkport. Okay. And quite far from the Mexico border, I should mention. And so it's like totally insane that we have armed agents of the state shooting people they didn't even secure. Like the pictures this morning. Have you seen the pictures this morning of the people who like wrote in shock, this is blood. Like the street in Biddeford, Maine is blood stained and they didn't secure it. The pictures of the two guys that did it seemed like they were just kind of plotting what their spin was going to be. Susan Collins said, oh, here's what my. Her statement was. I'm told by Mark Wayne Mullen that the DHS IG is going to look into this. It's like, oh, really? The people that have murdered four more, But I mean like four people point blank in the past few months, we're going to trust that department to do an investigation of itself. The murdering department is going to investigate itself. And Susan Collins, who's resident of her state, got killed is just like, I'm just going to see what the murdering department says about the murder and we'll see how that goes. Even though they've already lied about every other case. I mean, it is totally, like totally outrageous and people should be up in arms. And I do agree with you that like the fact that they're immigrants in the case of Juan Guerrero, not an illegal immigrant. Not that this matters. You don't get to just. I know in Fox, I think it's okay. They think just to kill illegal immigrants with impunity. Like if you come in illegally, then it's like, okay, whatever, you're a criminal, so we can do whatever you want to you. That's.

[A]

Yeah, you have a death mark on you.

[B]

Sure, yeah, you just get the death mark. But like in this case, it wasn't even the case. I mean like the guy had a work permit, so he's illegal and he was no different than the people working on Donald Trump's golf courses. And he's a three year old in the blue and bluey pajamas sitting there watching him get murdered. And the whole thing is fucking sickening. And, and this whole, like, oh, we're gonna stop doing car arrests. And it's just the same thing that happened in Minnesota, right? It's like, oh, okay, well, we're gonna stop doing Minneapolis patrolling now because people are onto us. So we're just gonna go out and patrol rural parts of the state. And here's what. Here's what happened. So there's my first rant. I've got more.

[C]

Can I just stipulate for the sake of brevity that I share completely not only the substance of Tim's rant, but also the rage with which he shared it? Okay. I have. I share the same. Now I have to tell you my bad news. I didn't want to go first because. And I'm going to get. I don't want to get blamed for this, but I had a focus group last night, swing voters, swing states. We asked about these shootings. They didn't know they'd happened, hadn't heard anything about them, just didn't even know. And I think that this is indicative of two things. One point you've already made about the fact that these are not American citizens in the way that Alex Preddy and Renee Good were, where people can sort of put themselves, like, hey, I could have been out in those streets and cops are just shooting me. Right. Instead, it's something they feel like they identify with lust. Because they. As soon as you hear illegal alien or whatever it is that they're using, you say like, okay, well then they were doing something wrong. Right? So that's what the other difference is. It wasn't caught on tape the way that the other two were. And I think when things are caught on tape and people are able to sort of do their own Rorschach investigation of what am I seeing here? Right? Like we're. Now you're being told. Being told that the car was driving away or whatever is completely different that is life of the mind stuff than, oh, I'm seeing it right now. And I have to evaluate it by what's in front of me at multiple angles, which is what happened with Renee Good and Alex Preddy. And I think both of those things are just contributing to. And whether it's the Iran war plan, cheerings, whatever it being summer, we do not have an engaged populace in this. Like, people are not paying attention. The Same way.

[B]

A couple of things. One, I take your point that, like, we don't have video of, you know, like, the part of the good thing was like, there's a lot of discourse about, you know, I honestly, even in some ways it drew attention to it that the Republicans administration was arguing that she was trying to hit the guy. Right, right. Because then there's this controversy.

[C]

Well, that's what it did it through the lie. Right there was their statement, which we could then see with our own eyes, was a lie in a way that is not happening in this instance.

[B]

The other thing I would say about this, and this is just a broader point, takes me back to like the right, right. Thompson interview I did earlier this year, which was one of my favorites, where he's talking about his mom and how she's posting on Facebook all the time. And he's like, mom, why are you posting on Facebook so much? This isn't helping. You live in Mississippi. People are gonna hate you. And she was like, right, I lived through this once and I didn't say anything. I'm not gonna do it again. And I just. I thought that was really a short version of the story. I thought it was very powerful. And it's like, this is something that I've changed my view on because, like, during kind of the peak of peak woke around Covid Black Lives Matter, there was kind of a lot of performative posting happening, you know, in ways that you kind of would make you roll your eyes at some point. Like, everybody's putting a black square up on their Instagram feed. You're like, I of kind, okay, what. What is being done with by this? But that is better than the alternative of nothing, you know, And I. And I do think that it is something that when I was. I guess it was the Houston. I guess it was the Lorenzo. There's so many ice shootings this week, it's hard to remember which one. But the Lorenzo shooting, I guess it was. I asked like, the podcast emails, like, can we clip Bill and I talking about that and put it on social media? Because I want people to be able to share that, you know, And I do think that that's like an important thing that people can do now. Like, I think it does matter, right? Like, it matters like they pulled out of Minnesota because of the reaction. There's obviously not going to be the same level of reaction in Biddeford, Maine, as there was in a major metropolis like Minneapolis, as far as people on the streets are concerned. But they're already at least saying that they're going to change some policies and what we know, what they're really going to do, which is like, let things die down and go back to business as usual. But like, it's, it is actually important it meaningful. This is one area where it's meaningful, I do think, for people to like, post on, like, make sure your friends have seen this, because I do think a lot of people probably haven't.

[C]

They haven't. And it was, it was reminiscent of the time that, like an early lesson for me in doing focus groups was when Trump was on the stage with Vladimir Putin and cited against America's intelligence community. And I was in Columbus, Ohio, and I asked people about it and they just gave me these blank stares because I was like, oh, wait, the thing that people were literally freaking out about, like, you know, 80 years of American foreign policy had just evaporated and people in Washington were up in arms about it. Donald Trump was being forced to walk back his statement just to keep whatever. But, like, nobody in Columbus, Ohio knew or cared. And I've always liked quotations because they're nice and succinct and they like wrap things up. And one of them is the opposite of love is not hate. It is indifference, which is Elie Wiesel, who wrote Man's Search for Meaning, which is one of my all time favorite books about the Holocaust. And like that emotion of indifference. And it's not even like that's what we're dealing with. And so, like, you have to sort of help shock the conscience of Americans.

[A]

I'm a little afraid to ask, Sarah, when, when you talked about this with the focus group people.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Did they care? Like, once you explain what was happening?