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- [00:00]
Meg Kennard
I feel like I will be covering Mark Sanford for my entire career. I've done it. It's already been 24 years of covering him. And I feel like maybe we're hiking
- [00:09]
Sarah Longwell
that Appalachian Trail for eternity. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we are taking you to South Carolina. Now, South Carolina had its regular primary a couple of months ago, but with Senator Lindsay Graham's passing on July 11th, there's an ENT Republican primary for a six year Senate term compressed into a few weeks. And one of the front runners is someone most South Carolinians hadn't heard of a month ago. So that's kind of crazy. And we're going to talk about how Republicans in South Carolina are feeling about this process and about all of their options. My guest today is Meg Kennard, who covers national politics for the Associated Press but is based in South Carolina and knows the state like the back of her hand. Hey, Meg, thanks for being here.
- [01:01]
Meg Kennard
Of course. Happy to be with you.
- [01:04]
Sarah Longwell
So I want to start with a non Lindsey Graham question because it looks like the DNC is poised to make South Carolina the first stop in the 2028 presidential primary calendar. Is that going to what do you think that's going to do to the presidential election? Is it going to have much of an impact?
- [01:22]
Meg Kennard
I mean, it could back in 2020 when clearly South Carolina was not first, but first in the south for Democrats. It was very impactful in terms of kind of reviving Joe Biden's bringing him back into contention really for the nomination. South Carolina is known for playing this role. Right. Like it's been first in the South. The state has always seen itself as kind of the decider of, okay, here's how Iowa went and here's how New Hampshire went. Now, South Carolina typically ends up picking the person who goes on to win that nomination. So going first, there's a question of will South Carolina get it right, so to speak, and actually picking the person who will win the nomination or will at least they have some sort of an impact in terms of kind of telegraphing how black voters may be feeling. Those are the drivers of the Democratic Party here. So we'll see. This is kind of the first test of South Carolina both going first and also having this primary in an open process as opposed to 2024 when Joe Biden was clearly seeking reelection.
- [02:23]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, I'm going to pretend like I'm a 2028 candidate and I'm thinking about how do I feel about this. If I'm Kamala Harris, I like that South Carolina might be the first place. And maybe if I'm Pete Buttigieg, I'm not so psyched that it's the first place. Do you think that as, you know, everybody sort of turns over the idea of South Carolina being first? Does it? You know, the way that I think about, like, Iowa, in some ways, Iowa has been first. And it was really impactful to have Iowa go for Barack Obama because black people didn't feel like somebody would vote like white people would vote for Barack Obama until he won the Iowa primary. And they said, oh, no, they are going to vote for him. And that sort of. And so I wonder if it sort of reverses this. Right? And will voters who say, okay, Kamala Harris, and I'm, I guess Westmore is maybe the other black candidate you could see running in 2028, do you think people will take that? Will it catapult them out or will people kind of do. Well, it's South Carolina. I'm not sure that that's a, you know, representative of the entire Democratic Party. Or do people. Because the Democratic Party also often says, hey, black voters are our base. They said it. Final word, we're done. How do you think that that psychology is going to work?
- [03:46]
Meg Kennard
You're right. There is a lot of psychology at play here. The South Carolina Democratic Party is saying a bunch of things in terms of promoting themselves as the right pick to lead off this calendar. For one, it is the black voters and how getting buy in from them early on in the process not only puts forth a potential nominee who will best represent all different factions of the Democratic Party, all different kinds of people, but also the south, all of the black voters who typically vote Democratic across the south in this big region. That will be something that they're making argument. But they also talk about how South Carolina is representative not just in terms of racial diversity, but also socioeconomic diversity, business, agriculture, all these different things that make up our state, state's economy. South Carolina Democratic Party, in putting that to the DNC and rules and bylaws and making all those arguments, that's a lot of what they said, too. So you're absolutely right in it being kind of a testing ground in terms of how these candidates will be doing among black voters. To add to your list, I think that we're likely to see Cory Booker perhaps also making another run for it in 2028. He's been spending a lot of time here already. He's well known to a lot of figures within the South Carolina Democratic Party. He's kept those relationships alive since. I think the first time I saw in advance of the 2020 campaign was even before the midterm elections had even happened in 2018. So he's been coming here a lot. So let's just add him to the list, too. I think there could be some challenges for candidates like Buttigieg or some of the other potentials on that 2028 list that haven't necessarily felt those same vibes coming from South Carolina. And so putting the state first, it could be a rude awakening for some of them. But I mean, thinking back to Joe Biden in 2020, he had a couple of rude aw along the line until he got here, and South Carolina really turned it around. So I think there are a bunch of different factors coming into exactly what sort of role the state is going to play and how the candidates coming out of that primary, which is January 22nd of 2028, mark your calendars, how they're going to be faring in the states that will soon follow.
- [05:54]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I'm sort of excited by it just because it it if you're a political nerd, it gives you a lot of different things to think about. So, for example, using Pete Buttigieg as again, whenever people think, ok, Pete Buttigieg, I love him. People say this all the time in the focus groups. I love people to judge. He's my favorite, but I don't think he can win. And when you ask why not, they basically like, well, black voters don't seem to like him. And so you could also see, though, if Pete Buttigieg, who I think is working really hard on that specific piece right now, I bet you see a lot of Pete in South Carolina and if he overperforms with black voters, like Pete's expectations, you could see that being a boon to him. And you also Jon Ossoff, who will have won in his Senate race if he were to run, would have, I think, probably put up insane numbers in Atlanta with black voters running arm in arm with Keisha Lance Bottoms. Like, I don't know, you could see how like all of those things kind of coming together in a dynamic in South Carolina is pretty interesting. So lucky you getting to be the on the grounds that's going to be a big you're going to everybody's going to want you. You very feels like a a little
- [07:05]
Meg Kennard
bit of job security maybe at least for the next couple of years. But South Carolina politics just can't quit. So there's always Something to do around here for sure.
- [07:13]
Sarah Longwell
All right, so for this show, we convened a group of South Carolina Republicans who plan to vote in the Aug. 11 primary, the Republican primary. Everyone in the group voted for Donald Trump for president all three times. Although, like, they were, but they were. There was some disappointment in there from Trump, but we'll get into that in a future episode. That's not what this one's about. Okay. To start the group, we asked them about Lindsey Graham's legacy and how they would want South Carolina's next senator to be similar or different from him. Let's listen.
- [07:47]
Republican Voter 1
I have a lot of good things that I think about him, but I also kind of feel like he was wishy washy there. Like with Trump. Initially, you know, he didn't like him. And then when Trump became president, they're golfing and, you know, they're best buddies. So I don't know, there's like, a little bit of a concern with that. But overall, I think he's been, you know, a great senator, and I feel like he's really advocated for the, the people in South Carolina and the Republican Party.
- [08:15]
Sarah Longwell
I'm hoping that they will be not hawkish, but, but, you know, strong military, strong
- [08:26]
Republican Voter 2
Republican.
- [08:26]
Republican Voter 3
You know, I followed his career for many years and, you know, you felt like you had somebody who was defending the Republic. And that's the way I've always looked at him, is he was always going to defend the Republic, and, and that's why he's had back and forth with President Trump, because he seemed the type that was always going to choose the Republic over the president if it came down to pusher shove.
- [08:51]
Republican Voter 2
I like the fact that he didn't like Trump and that he did like Trump because, you know, Trump won him over or, you know, to Lindsey Graham's benefit. You know, he can evaluate a person based on that person individually, not just what party they're in. He didn't go with, you know, the flow of everybody else not liking Trump. You know, he made up his own mind.
- [09:18]
Republican Voter 4
Met him a couple of times. He's a really, really good person. There were some times that I felt like he was a little too easily swayed on important issues. I feel like he could be persuaded, depending on who was doing the talking. That's the, the only downside that I really have of him. I think he was an incredible representative of our state. I think he did have South Carolina's best interest at heart.
- [09:50]
Republican Voter 2
I respect that. He had a very long tenure, not just in South Carolina, but just a lifelong politician. I Do not. His flip flopping in leadership is a problem for me when it comes to, you know, integrity and standing for something. Of course you can grow and learn and change your mind, but I don't think Lindsey Graham exhibited that as well as very war hungry.
- [10:19]
Republican Voter 5
He knew how to work with Democrats to get, to get things done. Yes, he could change his opinion opinions on things but for me I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. I think it's important to take in information and, and things are always evolving and being able to compromise and negotiate I think is very important for the position. So yeah, I don't know like others have said, I don't know a ton about the, the people that are running now. My first impression is there's no, there's not really any impressive candidates unfortunately. So it is going to be hard to, to replace him.
- [11:10]
Republican Voter 6
People mentioned like wish washing and you know, flip flopping back and forth but I've always been one that thought it was important to gather information and then make those informed decisions and not just be so, I mean look, I'm as hardcore Republican as they come, but not be so hardcore that you don't at least take into account. Right. You know, an opposing view. And I, I've respected that he did that but I also in that same breath realize how that can make someone in his position come across as. I'm not going to stand my ground. I'm just gonna be this little, you know, well, let's just listen to everybody. Like I, I understand both sides of that argument.
- [11:54]
Sarah Longwell
Well when I was listening to this group do this section I did find that there was, I wondered how much of it was sort of a hagiography of Lindsey Graham in a. Let's not speak ill of the, the dead. He just passed away. And so people were, maybe they were giving him his flowers because people, they were gentle in their wishy washy. And the conversation ended up developing a through line of whether being wishy washy is a good or bad thing or changing your mind is a good or bad thing. But what did you feel like? Lindsey Graham's relationship with voters was like base voters, base Republican voters in South Carolina before his passing.
- [12:36]
Meg Kennard
I think that there are a couple of different ways to look at it. On the one hand, as some of those voters expressed, there was a respect for the longevity.
- [12:45]
Republican Voter 6
Right.
- [12:45]
Meg Kennard
For the four terms in the Senate so far, House before that and briefly in the state House before that. And there are a lot of voters that we talk to all the time who are like I Want someone new. I want someone who has, you know, a fresh perspective on this and isn't a creature of Washington or however they want to phrase it. But I've often heard from voters during his reelection campaigns and just kind of generally when news comes up and we have to talk to people about Lindsey Graham, which happens a lot, that there is an understanding of what that longevity means, of what that seniority means, of that means. You get to be head of committees and you get to have more of a voice in the process of Congress or particular to Senator Graham. You develop this relationship with President Trump that has, in terms of what these voters perceive has paid some dividends even for South Carolina, has brought some more attention to conservative politics in South Carolina, but every single time, also that Lindsey Graham has come up for reelection. There have always been these ultra conservative voices from within the party here who are hitting on what some of those voters also mentioned, which is, this guy works too much with Democrats. This guy changes his mind, he is willing to compromise. To a lot of people, it's like, no, you don't give too much. You stand for what you stand, stand for, and you don't really, you know, kowtow to anyone else's decision. And so there's those kind of, like, bifurcated things happening. Lindsey Graham faced primary challengers every single time. Never once in his political campaign was he even forced into a runoff. So he won every primary, you know, without ever having to fight for it in round two. But I think that there, you know, yes, we've heard a lot of, as you said, people giving flowers to Lindsey Graham in the wake of his death, which is very appropriate. But I think in my years of covering him and talking to voters about him, I've heard those two things of, like, okay, so I appreciate kind of like, how long he's been there and what he's been able to accomplish for us for South Carolina. He's been on this global stage, but he comes home and reminds voters, this is why I'm taking these foreign trips, to keep you safe, to protect your interests, to protect the American way of life. That was something he was excellent at, being able to take that global stage, bring it down here to home. So hearing that, but also the skepticism of, yeah, you know, he works too much with people like John McCain or Joe Lieberman or, you know, whoever else through the years. I don't like that. So I want someone who's going to, you know, stick to it.
- [15:12]
Sarah Longwell
In light of Cornyn losing his primary in Texas, I was thinking about Lindsey Graham, who, you know, I. I came, I became a Republican because of John McCain and the context in which I originally got to know Lindsey Graham was as the John McCain wingman. And so my cards on the table, I found Lindsey Graham's transformation repulsive and sort of callow and cowardly in every single way. But it is interesting to me that John Cornyn, despite debasing himself by reading Art of the Deal and photographing himself, whatever the fact that he never forged the kind of succubus relationship with Trump that Lindsey Graham forged. I don't think Lindsey Graham would have survived in South Carolina listening to these voters had he not become sort of an essential buddy, golfing buddy of Donald Trump's and saying that he was on Donald Trump's side. Do you think that's right?
- [16:17]
Meg Kennard
I think, you know, I've gotten this question or versions of this question a lot through the years, not just recently, like, why? How did Lindsey Graham become this person who was so close to Donald Trump, and why did he do that? And I think in talking to advisors who've known him for decades, and kind of considering what I've observed through my decades of covering him, too, I think part of it is at its essence, that Lindsey Graham was exceptional at figuring out where he needed to go to be a consequential part of whatever conversation was happening. And that's not, to me, to just, in my perception, that's not just to personally be in the spotlight. There are some people who have argued that that's not how I see it. I think that he was able to insert himself into the issue of the day, into the conversation and around the leaders who were having that conversation to ensure that he could get his point across and be part of it. You know, there's always these sayings, like, you know, you can't, like, affect.
- [17:18]
Sarah Longwell
Not at the table. You're on the menu.
- [17:19]
Republican Voter 6
Yeah.
- [17:20]
Meg Kennard
Thank you. Yeah. Like, so that's. It's part of that, right? And so I think that when you saw him getting closer to trump, going from 2016, we hate each other, and destroying the cell phone and, you know, giving out the number and all that, like, going through the arc to being like, well, elections have consequences. I heard Lindsey Graham say that, you know, a zillion times through the years in defending, like, putting forward, you know, Democratic judicial nominees and things like that. So when Trump gets elected, he's like, well, you know, this is the guy that I didn't really like to begin with, but he's going to be our president. He's from my party, I'm going to figure out how to have a relationship with this man so I can try to get things that I want across the finish line. And also I'm reading the room around my state of South Carolina and seeing how strongly my state voted for him. I would like to run again for reelection. And so that could also help me politically because that's where South Carolina Republican voters are in terms of how they feel about Trump. So I think it was a lot of those things together that brought us through the last decade or so.
- [18:22]
Sarah Longwell
All right, so Lindsey Graham's sister, Darlene Graham, was appointed to finish the last six months of his term, and now she's running for a full term with Donald Trump's endorsement. It's worth noting that we did this group and taped this episode before the televised debate that's going to happen in this race. The head scratching vibe you're going to hear from voters in the Sound probably continues even post debate. Do you think the debate is going to be meaningful? I guess because as the sound I'm about to play is going to show, voters are like, I don't know any of these people.
- [18:57]
Meg Kennard
You know, I cover a lot of debates, right? Presidential, Senate, gubernatorial, like all over the place. I feel like if I were a voter who didn't have to pay attention to this debate. But we're still curious, I feel like I would want to tune in just because the current senator and Lindsey Graham's sister is somebody that I have no idea who she is politically. Most of the time when you're watching a debate like this, you kind of, you know, maybe have a sense of who some of the players are. But I mean, she's a political unknown of her own, Right? So, yeah, it's, it's a special primary debate. Numbers probably aren't huge for those anyway. But when you have someone like that who's already in the seat, who already has the endorsement of the president, but never has really been on any of these kinds of stages on her own, I would be very curious as to what she's going to say when challenged on any policy issue or in any sort of back and forth with the other hopefuls who are better known, just singularly.
- [19:52]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, I'm sure you're going to be interested. I'm sure I'm going to be interested. I'd be interested to know how interested these voters are going to be. Let's listen to how they talked about Darlene.
- [20:05]
Republican Voter 1
My biggest concern is I love the whole relationship with his sister and she's I mean, she has this amazing career with, you know, she has, like, a master's and she's helped people that are blind. And she's an, you know, lovely woman advocate. But I don't feel like she has the experience.
- [20:30]
Republican Voter 3
What worries me is how quick this has to happen and the rush to make an emotional decision.