Texas Primary Results! Megyn Kelly Turns on Trump?!

Summary

The Bulwark Podcast Summary

Episode: Texas Primary Results! Megyn Kelly Turns on Trump?!
Date: May 27, 2026
Hosts: JVL, Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the shocking results of the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, where establishment incumbent John Cornyn suffered a humiliating defeat to scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton. The Bulwark team analyzes what this result says about the Republican electorate, how Trump’s endorsement has upended traditional politics, and what it could mean for the general election matchup against Democrat James Talarico. The episode also covers Chip Roy’s loss, Candace Owens’s rising profile, emerging culture war dynamics, and briefly touches on escalations in Iran and Megyn Kelly’s latest shift on Trump.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Texas Senate GOP Primary: Cornyn vs. Paxton

• [00:00 - 07:00]
  • Paxton’s Landslide Win:
    • JVL reports Paxton ahead of pre-election benchmarks by 26 points, calling it a blowout:
      “Ken Paxton is ahead of pre election benchmarks by 26 points. 26 points.” (JVL, 00:41)
    • Cornyn (“Big Bad John”) loses decisively despite six terms of service, no scandals, and establishment status.
    • “Got schlonged.” (JVL, 01:00)
  • Voters' Choice Dynamics:
    • Sarah and Tim debate why Republican primary voters embraced Paxton, referencing his criminality as a feature, not a bug.
      • “It seems to me like the reason people voted for him was because of the crimes.” (JVL, 04:09)

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Miller, on vice signaling:
  “The vice signaling and the unapologetic MAGA. ...Paxton’s crimes weren’t just minor crimes.” (04:25)
• Sarah Longwell:
  "You give them a normal Republican versus somebody who is corrupt with a lot of scandals, who looks more MAGA, more Trump friendly. They’re going to take the guy that they see as more in Trump’s corner." (01:59)

2. Criminality as a Badge of Honor

• [04:00 - 09:00]
  • The group lists Paxton’s scandals (bribery, fraud, firing whistleblowers, enriching himself, giving a child sex crime offender a light sentence, treating his family badly), and note that this seems to endear him to primary voters.
  • Cornyn lost support only after Trump endorsed Paxton, underscoring Trump’s influence.
  • “Nothing changed between the first time and now except Trump endorsed Paxton and I guess Paxton went all in on the SAVE Act...” (Tim, 08:09)

Notable Moment:

• The hosts discuss the disturbing role of "vice signaling"—candidates being shameless or criminal as a positive signal to MAGA voters.

3. General Election Prognosis: Can Talarico Win?

• [09:20 - 14:00]
  • Paxton is theoretically the weaker GOP nominee, but Texas remains heavily Republican.
    • “Lots of things can happen... Talarico has maybe a 1 in 3, 2 in 5 chance.” (JVL, 10:43)
    • Tim: “I’d say 60-40.” (11:04)
  • Strategy for Talarico: Maximize gains among suburban/exurban Bush/Romney Republicans repelled by Paxton, but must also do well with Hispanic voters and break into rural white working-class areas.
  • The size and rural dominance of Texas, compared to places like Georgia:
    “Texas is a really big state… huge areas of land filled with rural whites.” (Tim, 12:31)

Notable Quote:

• “Ken Paxton is not just like, I’m more right wing than Cornyn. …His value proposition was ‘I’m a criminal. And you like criminals.’” (JVL, 13:53)

4. Unique Republican Voter Psychology

• [13:50 - 15:00]
  • Republicans seem motivated more by performative opposition/loyalty to Trump, regardless of personal morality or record:
    • “I think his special sauce was the indictments and the crimes.” (JVL, 14:42)
    • Discuss the alternate universe where Trump endorsed Cornyn, speculating on whether Paxton’s criminality or Trump’s blessing is more decisive.

5. Chip Roy’s Defeat

• [19:44 - 22:09]
  • The group reacts to Chip Roy losing his primary, describing him as the most “annoying” House Republican for his feigned moral opposition to Trump:
    • “Chip Roy is one of these ones who is the most annoying... did the moral high horse stuff about Trump without following through ever.” (Tim, 19:51)
  • Humorous aside on Chip Roy’s failed image makeover and Sarah’s “cowardly goldfish” article.

6. Talarico’s Outreach and Democratic Hope

• [22:09 - 24:43]
  • Talarico tweets outreach to Cornyn supporters, aiming for college-educated suburban women and others troubled by Paxton’s record.
    • “I have a feeling that Paxton may be uniquely vulnerable with women, especially married women...” (JVL, 22:28)
  • Tim crunches numbers: If even a substantial minority of Cornyn voters flip, it’s close—but still a tough hill for Democrats.

Notable Quote:

• “This is the opposite of hopium.” (JVL, 24:43), wryly undercutting optimism about a Democratic miracle.

7. Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and America First Dynamics

• [25:00 - 35:26]
  • The episode covers Megyn Kelly’s latest critique of Trump and uses it as a pivot to a lively discussion of newer MAGA-aligned figures’ rise.
  • Sarah discusses her viral piece noting Candace Owens frequently coming up in focus groups as a “fun, kicky choice,” and as a sign of deepening Trump-era celebrity politics infiltrating the Republican brand.
    • “...for years [voters] thrown her out as somebody that they like, especially women.” (Sarah, 28:41)
    • Tim: “My response to that is, where have you been the last 16 years?” (35:14)
  • The group unpacks the “America First Israel Worst” wing: Owens, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, all forming a bloc increasingly critical of Trump—and capturing surprising grassroots energy.

8. Iran and Middle East Conflict

• [36:12 - 37:26]
  • Brief but pointed, the hosts complain about false optimism regarding peace and U.S. claims on de-escalation—only for new bombings to occur.
    • “We were promised... they had basically had a deal...and the war was over. Is that not so?” (JVL, 36:23)
    • Sarah: “Then we did some bombs, just to tie it up with a bow.” (36:58)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Got schlonged.” (JVL, 01:00) — on Cornyn’s loss.
• “His value proposition was ‘I’m a criminal. And you like criminals.’” (JVL, 13:53)
• “It is criminally easy to diagnose what’s happening here.” (Sarah, 01:50)
• “This is the opposite of hopium.” (JVL, 24:43)
• On Candace Owens:
  “It is not that weird... It’s like people have something in their brains that say, well, obviously Candace is too crazy for anybody to think of as a political figure. And I’m like, no, she’s not. Not in the world we're living in now.” (Sarah, 31:36)
• On Talarico’s chances:
  “Is Paxton so bad?... Can Talarico overcome, you know, him talking about veganism while wearing a mask? We’ll see.” (Tim, 18:37)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Texas Primary Results Begin: 00:00
• Paxton's Criminal Record and Electorate’s Embrace: 04:00–09:00
• Trump’s Endorsement and Electorate Power: 07:01–09:24
• Can a Democrat Win Texas—Strategic Discussion: 09:24–16:48
• Chip Roy’s Loss: 19:44–22:09
• Talarico’s Outreach and Math: 22:09–24:43
• Candace Owens in Focus Groups / Celebrity Politics: 25:00–34:45
• State of the Middle East—Iran Segment: 36:12–37:26

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Tone and Style

The episode is irreverent, fast-paced, and insightful, with a mix of exasperation and gallows humor about the Trump-aligned right’s transformation of GOP politics. The hosts use sharp analogies, pop culture references, and blunt language to dissect political news. They balance deep insider knowledge with accessible explanations, often poking fun at themselves and their audience.

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Takeaway

The Texas results are seen not just as a local story, but as a microcosm for the GOP’s current state: loyalty to Trump outweighs experience, competence, and even criminal indictments. The rise of figures like Candace Owens illustrates how celebrity and media presence are now prerequisites for GOP stardom, and the upcoming general election will test just how much baggage GOP voters are willing to carry for the sake of tribal loyalty. The Bulwark team leaves listeners with a sense of both alarm and grim amusement at the ongoing MAGA-fication of Republican politics—even as they search for glimmers of hope in the data.

Transcript

[A]

Hello, everyone. This is JVL coming to you live from the abattoir that is the Texas Republican Senate runoff. We're going to get to that in a minute. I'm here with my best friend Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. Guys. It is great to be with you. I had assumed that we're going to begin this show by sort of vamping for a little bit and talking about politics in the day and we're going to have to wait for the polls to close and all this stuff. No, no, no. John Cornyn, he gone. He gone. I just want to read you one little thing from the New York Times needle. They have a new thing here where they, they look at on track to vote. So they do like an actual campaign a, you know, benchmarks for what they had. Anyway, Ken Paxton is ahead of pre election benchmarks by 26 points. 26 points.

[B]

Say it, JBL. What is it? What would, what, what happened to John Cornyn?

[A]

Got schlonged.

[B]

You got schlonged.

[A]

And I, I have so much to say, but I want to throw it to you guys, my best friends first, to tell me what you think this says about the very fine people of Texas. That it was a close, close thing. On the one hand, there's John Cornyn. He's been in the Senate for six terms. He's a serious guy, he's well liked. He pulls through for Texas all the time. No scandals, anything like that. And the other guy, and there's this criminal. And they looked at these two and they said again, ahead of benchmarks by 26 points. They said, we want, oh, he's a crimp. Give us that guy.

[B]

Why don't you take it? Why don't you take the first swing?

[C]

Well, part of it is that this is, it's, it's criminally easy to diagnose what's happening here. And by criminal. That's right.

[B]

Smooth criminal.

[C]

Look, I can't believe that taking a selfie of reading Art of the Deal and saying he was willing to nuke the filibuster didn't get John Cornyn over the line. This is, this is always a bit of a tough one for me because on one hand, obviously Cornyn is a better person than Ken Paxton and probably a better legislator. On the other hand, in stove touching land, you also want MAGA to be what MAGA is. And this is what MAGA is. You give them a normal Republican versus somebody who is corrupt with a lot of scandals, who looks more maga, more Trump. Friendly. They're going to take the guy that they see as more in Trump's corner. And I do wonder this is. Tim, I don't know if you have any thoughts on this. Watching the margins tonight, I'm not surprised at all. Paxton won because Wesley Hunt was the other. There was a third party the first go around and we did a bunch of focus groups in Texas and it was very clear that Wesley Hunt was. His votes were going to go to Ken Paxton. And and so like we always knew, or I think we had long known Ken Paxton was, was likely to win this race. I do wonder whether Democrats voted for Ken Paxton in this primary. I don't know if they can, but there was if for no other reason then to the extent that people.

[B]

There are a lot of Democratic primaries, I mean, you know, are some runoffs and in some places I could have done it but, but it would be on the margins.

[C]

At the end of the day, Paxton is the weaker of the two candidates to go against Tao Rico. So I feel like Democrats shouldn't like be so thrilled because I don't know that like Ken Paxton still has the odds chance of winning in Texas, but it does make Tal Rico a little more formidable.

[A]

Tim, I have a question. Sarah said Ken Paxton was the more maga and I think that's right. But not more MAGA in any legislative sense.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

Like not. He's not more cons. Paxton's not more conservative than Cornyn. He wouldn't vote with Trump more often than Cornyn did. It seems to me like the reason people voted for him was because of the crimes.

[B]

Yeah, the vice signaling, honestly, I mean the vice signaling and the unapologetic maga. And at times Cornyn would say things such as, you know, I wish that Trump wouldn't tweet that or you know, like. Right. Or he'd say things such as like we should be supportive of our friends in Ukraine. Right. And so I guess that's a policy thing, technically. Right. So there are like some things, but substantively not a lot. And Paxton's crimes weren't just like kind of minor crimes. They weren't just 15 year old Reddit posts, for example. I'm going to read a few of the things that he's done. Ken Paxton was impeached for bribery with bipartisan support. Bribery. 60 House Republicans voted to impeach him. Two Senate Republicans voted to convict in the Texas legislature. He was indicted on fraud charges. Several high ranking whistleblowers in the AG's office report him to the FBI for bribery and other crimes. In retaliation, he had them fired. As a public official, his net worth has grown 7,000%. Oh, he had a buddy that did a child sex crime that he gave an essential pardon to. The guy only went to jail for 30 days. He just got out. And this goes. This is in addition to just the horrible way in which he treated his wife, which is.

[A]

I was gonna say so. But at least he's a family guy, right? At least on a human level he's a good person. Right.

[B]

So, yeah. No. So anyway, so we'll see how all the people, the high and mighty at the National Review getting.

[A]

Do we have the tweet?

[B]

Chris Graham Platner. We'll see where they, we'll see where they end here. Go ahead, J.L. i can't see it.

[A]

So just for, for people listening to this. So we have a tweet here where first we have. Paxton's wife is back in 2025, announcing today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds. Is that a, is that a legal

[B]

term of art in Texas?

[A]

I declare for Bible reasons. Anyway. And then this was retweeted by one Joanna Rodriguez, the comms director for the rsc, who says what Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has. And we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.

[B]

So repulsive and disgusting.

[A]

Also a horrible human being in addition to a criminal. And again, this is what made the Republican voters in Texas run over broken glass to vote for the guy.

[B]

Yeah. And it's what made Trump endorse him, I think, is the other part. Right. Like the vice signaling is the point for, for the MAGA voters. I. It is, I will just say, like my two big observations is, you know, if any of these people had any dignity whatsoever, I mean it is absolutely humiliating for both the Texas electorate, like the GOP electorate and for John Cornyn for separate reasons. I mean it was. Cornyn won, I knew is a plurality, but he won the first round in the plurality. And so like the only thing that is different between that and now is Trump's endorsement. I mean, of these right wing guys. Like it's a big thing online to talk about how people are about how liberals are NPCs. They're like these non player characters of video games that go along with whatever the liberal trend of the moment is. Like this is a literal, like you're a literal. I guess you're not a literal lemming, but you're a lemming in all things besides, you know, the actual actually morphing into one. Right. Like the Republican electorate. Nothing changed between the first time and this one. Except Trump endorsed Paxton, and I guess Paxton went all in on the SAVE act, and the electorate responded by saying, yes, sir, Mr. Trump, sir, we're going to go. I mean, it's, it's beyond Massie numbers right now, and we'll see how it turns out. But as we sit here right Now, Corinne has 37%, Massey beat him by eight, and Massey actually opposed Trump. So. So there you go. And then the humiliation for Corn. And I mean, I did a whole video on this. People go watch if they just really, you know, kind of want to get intimate with themselves for a little bit. We went back and revisited Cornyn's Big Bad John video. Do you remember this one? Jvl no. Big John. Yeah. He did like a, like a Marty Robbins, you know, western themed thing where he wore a cowboy hat and there's a song. Yeah. Big Bad, Big Bad John John. Big Bad John. And they talked about how he's a big guy that'll stand up to the libs.

[C]

He's very tall.

[B]

Yeah, it's like Big Bad John just totally got prostrate before Donald Trump and said, I will do whatever you want, sir. I'll name a highway after you. I'll pretend to read your book. And he still didn't get the endorsement. And now he's heading to, really, one of the most humiliating primary defeats in memory.

[C]

I got a couple other things. One is the corny thing reminds me of Cassidy. Right. It's a very similar dynamic where Cassidy buddied up to Trump as much as he could. But ultimately, what the voters see in somebody like Ken Paxton is, well, he broke the law. He breaks the law. So does Trump. This is somebody who will break the law for Trump. Cornyn will mutter under his breath that he doesn't like some of things that Trump is doing, but Paxton will go to all the lengths to clear whatever pesky laws might be in the way of what Donald Trump wants to do. But the, the debasement going into this and Trump lining up against Cornyn also does set us up for another Senate Republican who might be pissed at Trump for the next seven months. And so to the extent that Democrats are really starting to think about what to do in the lame duck phase of having a bunch of YOLO Republicans, it's time to go grab them and, hey, come ride with us. And let's make Trump's life's difficult here in the future. That was my main thought on that, on Paxton. Do we think, do we think he can lose to tell Rico?

[A]

I mean, he can, he can.

[B]

He's the favorite though, for sure.

[A]

Lots of things can happen, right? I mean, I, I think it's a low probability outcome. Like I think Talarico has maybe a 1 in 3, 2 and 5 chance. Is that, am I right to you guys?

[B]

Yeah. 60, 40, I'd say, I'd say 60, 40.

[C]

Yeah. I haven't, I, I'll be.

[B]

Not results, but present chance.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[C]

To hear if voters who liked Cornyn, if the more establishment types, if they feel burned by Trump, like if there's active anger in that voting population or if they're just like, yeah, I wanted Cornyn, but Paxton will do. There could be some bitterness, but I don't know.

[B]

Yeah. I mean, here's the key thing about Texas when you think about this, right. Like, and I think maybe we're an important messenger for this question. When you think about Tellarico, right. Like there's only so much juice in the orange on suburban George Bush. Mitt Romney don't really like Trump, don't really like Paxton voters. Right. Like there is like you can get closer with those voters, like for sure,

[A]

37%, which is what John Cornyn is sitting at. Yeah.

[B]

But so that's not nothing like you add some percentage of those onto the Democratic vote and that's going to get you to close. I mean, Trump wanted by double digits, you know, Beto lost or whatever, three in 2018. So it's possible. But I think that's going to be like the low hanging fruit for Teller Rico. Right. Like going to try to run up the score a little bit in the Dallas suburbs, even out to the Dallas exurbs at this point. Tarrant county sort of, or Fort Worth is like that just went Democrat for the first time. There are these voters definitely exist in the big metros.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

To get over the hump in Texas though, like he needs to do really well with Hispanic voters. Really well. And, and at least try to like carve down the Bashar Assad working class whites in the rest of the state. Because Texas is a really big state. I don't know if you've seen it, but like it's not like Atlanta where there is like a big metro and then, you know, a lot of rural whites. Like, but like, but Atlanta, there's like about as much of Atlanta as there is rural whites. Right. And that's not the case in Texas. There's huge areas of land filled with rural whites. So you gotta kind of figure out how to. How to talk to them. Maybe Trump's helping you a little bit with, you know, his AG policy with the, like. Not really in Texas. The energy prices probably helping if it's like the one state where the high energy prices might help, you know, maga the mood out in West Texas. So it's like, that's like the big challenge for him is like, can he figure out a way to get to the other people in addition to, like, our people?

[A]

I mean, the good news is that maybe gas will be so expensive that some of those voters won't be able to afford to drive to the polls to vote.

[B]

Maybe.

[A]

I don't like to use the word irredeemable very often because as a good Catholic boy, I believe everybody is redeemable.

[B]

Me too.

[A]

Jesus Christ, our Lord and Savior, came down to redeem us all from our sins. That's true. He. He belongs to every one of us. That said, this is different than the Cassidy thing where the other people running in that race were just sort of like MAGA tomato cans. The Ken Paxton thing. Paxton is not just like, I'm more right wing than Cornyn. The whole, his, his value proposition was I'm a criminal. And you like criminals.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

I don't know what value proposition was. I love Trump. I love Trump hardest. And like, I will push through his Save act agenda. That's what, that's what kept him in, you remember?

[A]

I think, I think, I think his special sauce was the indictments and the crimes.

[B]

The SAVE ACT gambit was pretty good.

[C]

Yeah. Endorsing Corgan because that almost happened.

[B]

I do, I wish for, just for my own shot in Freuda and like, sadomasochistic purposes that. But also for the political science of it. Like, Trump had endorsed corn in early and then Ken Paxton hadn't gotten out. And it would have been an interesting potential outcome to see how things would have worked in that case. Like, that would have really been the test of your theory of the, of the theories on offer here. Right. Like, is this just a Donald Trump NPC cult or do the MAGA Republican voters want, as Thomas Massey once said, the craziest son of. In the race. And, and I think that like, obviously they want both of those things and so Trump made it easy for them. And, you know, so, so, so the, you know, kind of question was attested.

[A]

Wow. Well, we're gonna have all sorts of.

[C]

I just I just saw a question that's worth worth addressing, which is it was why are Tao Rico will have a tough time winning when you guys were all just saying recently that Paxton would be the easier one to beat? And that is right. The answer is yes. Both these things are true of the two Republican candidates. Ken Paxton, you have a better chance of beating him because of the corruption and because there was now a very unpleasant primary where Trump jumped in. And there's a lot of Republicans in the state who hate Ken Paxton because of the corruption. So he is the easier one to beat. That's still, it's still Texas. And it is very hard for a Democrat to win in Texas. I'm not saying this might not be the year and not saying that Tal Rico is not running a pretty good campaign. I see. He's, he is very, he's, he's got a good line right now about how he's eating barbecue before Ken Paxton's first indictment is how he is pushing back on the claims that he's a vegan, which of course doesn't bode well for

[B]

a candidate in Texas. Yeah, I don't know. We said that he has a 40% chance. I think that's pretty good for doom and gloom Tim and JVL. You know, look, you go back to bet the Beto, this is the comp, right? Like 2018, we have a straight comp. 2018 was the first Trump midterm, which was a Democratic wave. It was the closest somebody's run in Texas, you know, since Ann Richards, basically statewide. And Beto lost 48 to 51, basically lost by just under three points. Beto ran a great race. People don't people have memory hold this because he ran two horrific races after that. But like the 2018 race was before, you know, the Vanity Fair profile and before he said he wanted to take all the guns. Like, like his thing was he went to the whole state, like he spent a ton of time out in rural Texas, like doing Q&As, doing town halls. He was like, he kind of ran as like an earnest Democrat that Democrats liked but also kind of non partisan coded a little bit. Right. Like he ran a really great reason. He's running against Ted Cruz, who's one of the most unappealing people in the world and like has one of the world's most punchable faces. He still lost by three, ran an almost perfect race in 2018. So now we fast forward, you know, has Texas moved right or left since then? Hard to say. Like it moved. It did Start to move a little left in 2020, but then went back right in 2024. A lot of that was the Latino thing. We have a lot of evidence that the Latinos are snapp back now. So I think we're probably back to around that baseline, around a 3% race. The question is can, you know, now it's candidate stuff. It's like, is Paxton so bad? You know, like is Paxton's baggage, you know, given his, his, his, you know, pedo buddy, a sweet sweetheart deal? Is that worse than Cruz? Is he less good? You know, on the campaign trails cruise, Can Tellarico overcome, you know, him talking about veganism while wearing a mask? I, we'll see. But you know, you'd have to say that Paxton's a favorite, but it's, it's doable.

[A]

Tell you what, if we could do away with the secret ballot and see what the Texas Republicans in the state legislature voting. Talarico wins Texas state Republican legislators like

[B]

90, 10, 60 of them voted to impeach him. So think about Trump.

[A]

Actual Texas elected Republicans have been trying to kill Paxton for a decade at this point and to get rid of him. The people who know him best hate him. And I don't want to say that the voters are a bunch of mouth breathing rubes, but it does appear like the voters in Texas, at least Republican voters.

[B]

I know we're going to do more Texas. You know, it does.

[A]

I know Sarah's got her mad face on. She doesn't like that.

[B]

Why, why don't you like that?

[C]

I, I, I mean, I, I don't know that I have to categorize them exactly like that to say that they wanted the criminal, which I think is exactly true.

[A]

While we're here, Chip Roy also lost. Do you guys have thoughts on that

[B]

or do you want to.

[C]

That's great. See you, Chip.

[B]

Bye bye. Chip Roy, don't let the hit show or the good Lord split you. Yeah. Chip Roy, Chip Roy is one of these ones who is the most annoying in the House because he did the moral high horse stuff about Trump without following through ever. You know, like he always tried to kind of talk about the principle, the ways in which Trump betrayed principled conservatism. But at the end he always folded like a cheap suit, you know, and so in that sense, he was the most annoying. And he also is like very convinced of his own ability to persuade people. I don't know if people know Chip Roy. Should we, for people who don't, Chris, should we pull up a picture of Chip Roy?

[A]

It's just pre, bald and goatee or post.

[B]

I think we want to see him.

[A]

He had a total image makeover when he decided to run for office.

[B]

Yeah, the. The. I once wrote an article about Chip Roy called Chip Roy is a cowardly goldfish.

[C]

He got mad at you about that.

[B]

He had so many called me. He tried to talk to me for like an hour and win me over and say that, like, you know, I'm not as bad of a guy. There we go. There we go. Schiffer was once Ted Cruz's chief of staff. He is out of there. But this was, I guess it was after January 6th. This was in that period, right after January 6th. I wrote this February 25th. And Chiproy was, I guess now, with the benefit of five years hindsight, maybe deserves the tiniest little iota of credit that it was. He was trying to move people on, you know, like he was a coward, you know, in January 6th. But like in that period right after, when Kevin McCarthy went down there, he was one of the ones that's kind of like, okay, you know, he started sounding a little bulwarky. You know, he started feeling like, you know, maybe we should just like, put this. This guy in the past, you know, after the cap, whole capital storming thing and move forward. And. And I made fun of him for that because I was like, we got a chance to do something about this a month and a half ago, and you. You fucking lost out and so screw you. You know, he. I guess that take now gets vindicated as well, because he went right back. Took him, what, about four months. Get right back on board. Anyway, see you later, Chip, Roy, Sarah,

[A]

we have a tweet out by Tellarico. I want to thank Senator Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don't agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service to Senator Cornyn supporters. You have a place in our campaign. Sarah, can I put a focus group request in?

[C]

Yep.

[A]

Women, Cornyn voters. Because I have a feeling that Paxton may be uniquely vulnerable with women, especially married women, especially married women who don't think that husbands should be allowed to do what. What Paxton seems to have done and get away with it. I wonder, do you think there's some gold there for Talarico to convince some of those. Those nice, nice gals to come home?

[C]

I think maybe. Well, but again, this is. This is Tim's point, is that it's not just about who. It's about volume. Right. So, yes, do I think that there are some corn and voters Especially like these college educated suburban voters who find Paxton reprehensible. Correctly. But also there's just a lot more of the rural, white whatever Trump says goes type voters. And you know, you have to count on an extremely high level of them being pissed off at Trump. Right. An extremely high level of them. What. What do we want to call it? They are diminished enthusiasm. We want them to have diminished enthusiasm.

[A]

Stay home.

[C]

But Trump seemed to be able to turn them out for Paxton in this primary.

[B]

So you just a little hint of opium. Can we do a little hint of hopium right now?

[A]

Okay, but then we got to move on.

[B]

All right, here's some. Here's just a raw number for you. John Cornyn right now is 325,000 votes. When this thing's all done, I'm doing back of the envelope math. He'll have price somewhere about 450,000 votes, maybe a little more.

[A]

That's good.

[B]

Beto lost to Ted Cruz by. It's always dangerous to do live math by basically 210,000 votes. So you're trying to say. You know what I mean? Like, again, this is all like, there are a lot of other factors at play here, but could there be 200,000 corn and voters for Telorico? I don't. I. Or I mean, it's only 100. You know what I mean? Or if you imagine they voted for Cruise, could there be a hundred thousand Cruz voting Cruz corn and voters are gonna go to tell Rico a hundred thousand to be 20% of his vote? Maybe not. No. Yeah, I got. Okay, this isn't opium.

[A]

This is the opposite of hopium.

[B]

No opium there for you.

[A]

This is the. This is the. Oh, my gosh, wait a minute. Even if he gets one of every two corn and voters, he's still pro and runs the bet.

[B]

Okay, well, no, with one and two, he's wins. He wins. He wins. One and two. He would win with the better number.

[A]

Real close.

[B]

Would be.

[A]

Real close. Okay, so listen, quick, run a show, guys. We have a lot to talk about. It's going to be a great show and a long show. We're going to talk about Sarah's incipient campaign and boosterism for Candace Owens as president, which I was frankly shocked by. I feel like it betrayed all the principles of the bulwark. Yeah, but we're going to. We're going to chop that up together. We're going to talk a little bit about Iran, a little bit about Megyn Kelly, who has discovered that Donald Trump is corrupt and that he treated his Wives badly. This is shocking news. You guys are going to love it.

[B]

GB I know you have a show map. I just have a couple of things I saw during the ad read I want to mention. Paxton ends up almost winning Austin, Travis county. There are 12,500 Paxton voters in Austin. Who are they? I want to get a focus group of them. I'd like to meet the Austin Paxton. They're the Tech Bros. Yeah, maybe the Cornyn was asked in his concession speech where he looks like a scared cadaver if he still has concerns about Ken Paxton. And he said, I'll have more to say on that later. So that's intriguing, potentially. And a little happy note for you. Thomas Massey posted a pic of himself vacationing with Marjorie Taylor Green in Costa Rica. So you know all your faves getting together.

[A]

Where's her?

[B]

They're both. Their spouses are both there.

[A]

Oh, okay, okay.

[B]

No keys in sight.

[A]

Are they at one of those swingers resorts?

[B]

I said no. I don't.

[A]

Is that a thing that they. Was there an upside down pineapple?

[B]

I don't see one in this photo.

[A]

Don't. Don't make us explain that to Sarah. Okay,

[C]

so

[A]

Sarah published an outstanding piece yesterday saying people may be sleeping on the idea that Candace. Candace could run for president because in. In focus groups that she's been doing for years now, she is a name that just comes up organically all the time and that she is sort of breaking out of just normal Republican obsessive silos and becoming sort of mainstream. And in the same way that I said Graham Platner should he beat Susan Collins like a drum, sort of becomes a contender to be win the Democratic nomination. This means that you want Candace Owens to be president. And I would like you to defend yourself for before. How could you possibly have done this before?

[B]

Sarah defends herself. I just do want to say as soon as I saw the article get posted on the site, I was like, Sarah's a glutton for punishment because we know exactly what people are going to say about this article. And then number two, I just, nobody has ever in one of Sarah's focus groups meant thrown out my name as a potential person they're looking up for president. And so I do just want to say to like bulwark listeners, if you're ever in a focus group and people like any other names out there that you're looking at for 20, 28, maybe float me. I'm not going to run. But it's nice to be wanted. It's nice to be floated. It's It's a little, you know, it hurts my ego a little bit how many times Candace is. Has gotten mentioned.

[C]

Yeah. Okay. So first of all, Tim, you also wrote a President Candace piece which somebody resurfaced. And I think it, it could be. Our editors have a slight penchant for throwing titles on about the, the floating of these names for president. Because I don't think that Candace Owens is going to run for president. This piece.

[A]

You just think she should be president?

[C]

No, this is. This was a piece about the fact that voters do organically unprompted and have for years thrown her out there as somebody that they like, especially women. Often part of what has been interesting in more recent. So she's been coming up in focus groups for years. There's a whole bunch of people. I mean, whole bunch people. There are some people on Twitter who say things like, you know, oh, you got one lunatic focus groups. And I'm like, I actually run three lunatic focus groups a week. A week. Listen to voters across the political spectrum all the time. And they just. People raise Candace Owens as like a fun, kicky choice. And I think that that is not evidence of Candace Owens likelihood of becoming president. I do think it is evidence of Candace Owens increasing cultural power. And I just want to say for people who really dismiss the idea that there is like, some of these really weirdo podcaster types could end up as contenders of some kind. And I, I don't mean Candace here specifically, but let's say Tucker, who also comes up in the groups. Donald Trump is the president. Donald Trump was a game show host who had bankrupted a bunch of businesses who lived on Page Six, had a bunch of marriages. He was a cultural figure who had a parasocial relationship with voters. And I'm sorry, but it is not that weird. It's like people have something in their brains that say, well, obviously Candace is too crazy for anybody to think of as a political figure. And I'm like, no, she's not. Not in the world we're living in now. And Tucker gets brought up all the time. Megyn Kelly gets brought up like, there is a. And this is important. And, you know, I saved this for a second piece and I regretted it because it would have rounded out the analysis. Not that the people who are mad about this read the story, right. They just got mad at the title and whatever. But there is an. And I'm gonna elaborate on something I've been talking about, which is that there is an America first section of the party that is also Israel Worst. So the America First Israel worst, which is Tucker, which is, which is Candace, which is a little bit Megan, they are forming a real bloc and they are all increasingly critical of Donald Trump and there is real juice in that wing. And the other thing that is interesting to me is the America First Israel worst is kind of part of the horseshoe, right. There is a, A section of. Because this is what the piece is really about is that she's been coming up for years, but there is not just an increase in mentions of her but, but more. Not bipartisan. Exactly. Because it's not lots of Dems. Dems. But it is more independents who are and more just like non political people who listen to her for her conspiracy stuff. And so it is, it is a testament to the fact that there is a new generation of that are. That are legacies of Donald Trump. Like Donald Trump like unleashed this on our politics and here we are. And like the political set in D.C. who wants to, like the magazine set, who wants to say how dare you guys like raise this or talk about it. I'm like, I wish somebody. The reason I started doing focus groups in the first place was because we all missed the phenomenon of Trump. And so when I hear these things bubble up and you know, nobody got mad at me when I said recently Marco Rubio is really coming up in the groups in a new way, everybody was like, yeah, yeah, yeah, that sounds right. And I'm like, okay, so you liked that take. But of course, shortly after I started sounding that and mentioning it a few weeks later, you started to see it in the polls. You started to see Rubio leading over Vance in a number of polls. And so I just, I'm just saying that it's in there and it is a reflection of something that's happening in our politics.

[B]

I agree with all that. And I don't think that you in any way want Candace Owens to be president. Sarah, I absolve you.

[C]

I sure don't.

[B]

I. I'm a little upset. I know what it feels like to be JVL right now that you did not read or recall my seminal 2023 work about President Candace and the case I was looking there was pretty similar to the things that you just laid out. But I just want to add one other layer to it it that you kind of got at. But, but more particular Candace, if you like. Now she talks a lot about conspiracy theories, but like she always did. Right. But when I was writing this piece in 2023, she was doing a little bit of conspiracy theory, a little Bit of like just celebrity hot takes and gossip, a little bit of mommy blogging, you know, and a dabble of politics. Right. And it made for like an interesting show, like before she started, like, you know, doing six part series on Brigitte Macron's dick. Like, I, like, that was part of my maga, like, listening, you know, part of the stuff that I listened to because it was like more appealing to listen to than like Charlie Kirk show RIP or like Patrick Beth David. Because like they just talk about politics and I just get bored. Like, I like, I know what you're gonna fucking say. You know what I mean? This isn't useful to me. And so you could see why people could engage with her. And like, that was Trump, right? Like, how did Trump.

[A]

How was the Trump playbook?

[B]

Right? Yeah, and like the mega Howard Stern

[A]

tweeting about the Twilight Kids.

[B]

Correct. And the MAGA policy platform, like the Project 2025 platform is just not that popular. Right. And that's why don't. I think a lot of. I think pretty much if you ask anybody, like, do you think if we reran this waste with Ron desanctimonious against Kamala, maybe he wins, but probably closer, right? Like, that seems like a less scary competition, right? Because he is just. He was just running on like the MAGA platform. And the MAGA platform is less popular than this kind of like broader, you know, MAGA America first, like a culture war, you know, you know, some soft focus stuff. Trump's always like a little tongue in cheek. A lot of times she's kind of tongue in cheek sometimes. And so, you know, so anyway, I also don't think that she's going to be the president, but the people that dismiss that and think that it's really just going to be a race between a senator and another. My response to that is, where have you been the last 16 years?

[A]

I mean, I can think of one senator on the Republican side who might be interesting. Chris, can we have that tweet?

[B]

Is she in this?

[A]

Paxton does. Ken Paxton. Is his scandal life enough to break him out of the. He's just another politician mode? Because here's the thing. I actually wonder if. If I was. She looks great. Looks great. The gloves, the hair. I love. God love her. Good for. Good for you, Roseanne.

[C]

She was also hanging out with rfk, as you recall. She's the one. He broke the bear. I buried the bear in Central park story.

[A]

Yeah, well, she's. She's a health nut. You could tell she's lived a very healthy Life. No, I think Paxton could, could feel that. Okay, moving on, because we do have a lot. We're trying to get out of here in under three hours tonight.

[B]

I want to see the fourth quarter though. Western Conference finals, if possible.

[A]

So we're gonna do this very quickly with Iran because it is the most important story.

[B]

Sorry. I was still. I had to. To take a break. I was getting ready for John Lovett's wedding. Mazel tov to John and Ari. And I had to stop putting on my tuxedo and put instead on a regular shirt and get into my. Get onto a live stream in my dirty hotel room to discuss the end of the war in Iran. Because we pro that. We were promised that all the leaders in the Middle east have gotten on a phone call with Trump and they had basically had a deal. They were 2% away. You know, they're on the 2 yard line and the war was over. Is that not so? We can stop talking about it now. Right?

[C]

Then we started. Then we did some bombs. Just, just to. Just to tie it up with a bow, we started bombing.

[A]

You want to loop your conclusion back up to the intro.

[B]

How did the defensive bombs work in the, in the water in the south of Iran, which. What were we defending our position?

[C]

I think they were putting. They were putting more mines down, so we were blowing up the mine boats.

[B]

Now why would they be putting mines down if the war was over?

[C]

It's a great question. You're making great points. Why. This is what I do not understand is why do the markets like, why did you even get on for a live stream about that whole.