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- [00:00]
A
They like Marco because he's bilingual, because he's calm, because he's level headed, because he's strong character. They think JD Is too aggressive. It's like Avi voted for Trump three times. Trump has terrible character. He's not calm, he's not level headed, he doesn't want to mend fences. He can barely speak one language.
- [00:24]
B
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and this week we're going to Louisiana, which in all of my years of doing focus groups, I have never done to cover an election. So I start now. Well, because Senator Cassidy is really on the ropes as he runs for reelection. You may remember him as one of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump after January 6th. Good for him. I was a big Cassidy Stan in the wake of that because that meant he wanted to bar Trump from ever holding office again. Unfortunately, after Trump won his reelection in 2024, Cassidy has been now a force for sort of rubber stamping a lot of Trump's worst impulses, not the least of which was giving Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The key vote he needed to become HHS secretary in, which was a pretty obvious self serving tactic to try to get back on maga's good side, but does not look like it's worked. Sadly for Cassidy, Republicans in Louisiana have a very long memory about his impeachment vote and he may finish third in this primary, getting locked out of the runoff in the back half of the show. We also have some surprising focus group audio about the Marco Rubio boom lit that we have been watching because we're seeing a lot of it in our focus group. So stay tuned. Ross is going to test the waters on the Don Jr presidential run that JVL talks about so much. My guest today is adopted Louisianan Tim Miller, host of the Bull Work podcast, my co host on the next level, and my, you know, friend in all things. Tim Miller. What's up, buddy?
- [02:06]
A
What up, Sarah? Thank you for the invite. I was happy to do it. I love hearing the Louisiana accents, the best accents in the country. I will say for listeners like me who find the focus group podcast a torment at times, listening to the entire focus group unedit, unedited, without Sarah's takes in the middle, just listening to all of it, being in the room with these people for hours at a time is a torture only Sartre could imagine. It's, it's brutal and I just, I honor you and all things for continuing to do this.
- [02:43]
B
You don't love it. You don't listen to them and still see. You don't find, like, glimmers of hope. You don't find places where, you know, I love humanity.
- [02:52]
A
I'm closer to you than I am to JVL on this question. I love being on the people, of being at a jazz festival, of talking to people. Here's what I don't really love hearing idiots tell me what they think about politics for two or three hours at a time. You know what I mean? I would love to listen to this group talk to me about their favorite gumbo recipe, what they think about Lane kiffin, anything, how their kids are doing, what their life aspirations are. Having to listen to their politics takes. It's a specific torture. And it's tough for me. But I did it for you and for those.
- [03:26]
B
I appreciate that. I appreciate that. I will say, and this is my rejoinder to everyone who makes a similar point to you, that democracy is made up of these voters. I know this is what we're working with, and I think it is essential as we navigate this moment to understand what it is we are dealing with in terms of people across the political spectrum. Quick housekeeping note. If you like this episode and you want to see us in person in California, go to the bulwark.com events. Tim, Sam Stein and I will be in San Diego on May 20 and LA on May 21. Come hang out with us. Okay, Tim, we're going to start with,
- [04:04]
A
you know how I've started to do that now I have this tick. I do. Okay, okay, okay. It's a. You. I have this tick. I've picked up your tick.
- [04:11]
B
I know people in the office here do it, too. It's one of the, it's just a Sarah ism that like, gets contagious. Sorry. Okay.
- [04:19]
A
Okay.
- [04:20]
B
Since you are there in Louisiana and actually, before I even get to Cassidy, just give us a quick primer on Louisiana politics now that you're down there. Like, what kind of state is it?
- [04:31]
A
It's so interesting because the local politics is, like, very vibrant. You know, I mean, and it's a little less so now. I think now the Democratic Party has become so weakened and eviscerated. Like, but there was a period of time where you had, I mean, John Kennedy was a Democrat. They talked about this in the, in the focus group, Right. Like where you had these conservative Democrats and then you had kind of the black Democratic faction and Creole and Cajun voters and you had the social conservatives. Then that's Louisiana. So you have A like more so than like Alabama or whatever. You have people who are conservative impulse voters but are also, you know, partiers and cussers and all that. Right. You know, so it's, it's very, it was I think at one time very dynamic. And you know, I had a bunch of friends that worked for Buddy Romer and various things who'd worked for races down here who tell stories of tales of yore to JBL's newsletter recently from the Triad. Like there's been an insidification of Louisiana politics too. It's just like Trump has overtaken everything. The state has become so Republican. It's become like a one party state where it's like not that interesting really. I remember going to, I went to the Louisiana Republican convention a year or two ago just to kind of get a sense but was happening on the ground and people feel there just wasn't a lot of energy. People feel very kind of checked out. Like I do feel like it's kind of ripe for disruption in a way. It was interesting listening to the focus groups. You hear a lot of these people, they don't really love any of the candidates, are kind of frustrated. I think at least it was kind of ripe for some kind of Louisiana ish Trump to him. Like if John Kennedy wasn't so old, like maybe that could be him because he's kind of distancing from Trump in ways. And so it probably wouldn't be something that like I would like in particular, whatever that person was would emerge. But I do think the state is, is kind of ripe for it. And then here in New Orleans it is much more dynamic politically. And like there's like very big like New Orleans versus the rest of the state, you know, type dynamic which you see in a lot of kind of Southern states where, you know, there's a lot of tension between city politics and state politics. And yeah, and for a while that was, there was a lot more comity there and I think now less so. Like the current governor is very hostile to New Orleans and, and so I, I, who I think this is kind of new that I, the, that dynamic has become much more acute recently. So I'll kind of see how it plays out.
- [06:46]
B
This is not what we talk about in this episode, but it's probably worth noting that one of the other things that has got me looking at Louisiana lately is that they're one of the states where the VRA that was just sort of gutted by the Supreme Court, they're like holding off on their primaries. So that they can redistrict really fast and try to get.
- [07:04]
A
They're nullifying votes. 42, 000 people have voted. I could go vote right now as we're taping this, and the House races would be on the ballot and they're going to cancel those votes and move on. We don't talk about this. It's interesting. One of the dynamics of Louisiana politics is, as I was just talking about all those factions, part of what they're doing and this attack on New Orleans is the second majority minority district that they had added. They drew around Baton Rouge. Big black population in Baton Rouge, too, in part because a lot of the MAGA Republicans here hated this guy Garrett Graves, who was in the Kevin McCarthy kind of wing of the party. And it was just a little too rhino ish for everyone. And so they drew him out. And now what they're talking about in this map is to keep that new district that prompted the lawsuit around Baton Rouge kind of somewhat intact, and that representative was more moderate black congressmen, and carve up New Orleans so that New Orleans doesn't really have a representative anymore. And I think that's part of the dynamic that's at play here.
- [08:09]
B
So Cassidy, I want to, I want to set the stage because we're going to get to the voters, but it's, it's not going to be a surprise. Spoiler alert. The voters are down on Cassidy. Let's have a. You and I like a real accounting of our feelings about Cassidy, because both of us, I have some guilt around Cassidy in that I desperately wanted Republicans to vote for impeaching Trump. I wanted to protect all of the Republicans who took those votes. I thought that was really important to try to help people who took that sort of brave stand. The problem is the way not all of them, but some of them have sort of reengaged with Trump after his election. Like, they've basically all run in this direction of, like Cassidy has of trying to protect their own political careers from that vote by showing just how onside they are subsequently. And Cassidy has been particularly difficult for me to swallow because he's a doctor who knew exactly how dangerous RFK Jr. Was to medicine in this country, health in this country. And he took what I consider to be like one of the worst votes in the Senate. How much can we demand of these people? And should we stick with someone like Cassidy and continue to support him because he took that brave vote? Or do we have to judge him? Should we judge him by the things he's done subsequently? How do you think about it, yeah,
- [09:33]
A
I'm going to free you. I'm going to give you a Louisiana Catholic penance here on this. And it's because the people that took a vote to convict Trump or to impeach Trump in the House deserved defense and cover. They did. It was a very challenging vote, a brave vote, really. And there have been several of them that have since gone on to do things that annoy me, including Peter Meyer in the House, who's now on CNN saying the most annoying things all the time. And so it doesn't mean that you did one brave thing. We get to shower you with praises forever in life. You have to continue to act with integrity. And I thought that Bill Cassidy did. I think I would have given a lot of leeway to somebody like Bill Cassidy to do various things to demonstrate that he still was a conservative, but that this was a principled stand. Like there are just limits to that leeway. And what Bill Cassidy has done, which we're going to find out in these focus groups, is I think really tank his credibility with everybody. It was a choice that he made. It wasn't a choice that he had to make. And I think that it would have been very challenging going any route for him to be reelected to the Senate. There are greater things in life than being in the Senate your entire life. But had he wanted to try, I do think that there was a path of running with integrity and trying to do like an Evan McMullen style thing or Dan Osborne, right, where he could have said he was going to be an independent or John Fetterman. How about Fetterman is a decent example. Fetterman votes with the Democrats 91% of the time, but just on key things doesn't. And the Democrats don't like him. And that's never going to change. Cassidy could have tried that approach. I voted his conscience on conservative issues, said he was going to run for reelect as an independent. The Louisiana Democratic primary is maybe the weakest recruitment field in any state in the country. And even Alabama, Mississippi have have decently credible candidates running this time. We don't are the people that are good, I've met them, they're nice people, but it's just there's no juice. And so imagine had he decided to do that, like let this MAGA primary play out, run as a conservative independent, follow up his integrity on RFK Jr. He was a doctor, he was a vaccine advocate. His wife is as well, opposed rfk, opposed Trump when he does corrupt things, but still support whatever conservative maga policies. You wanted to vote for the stupid, beautiful bill, whatever, run as an independent. I think he probably still loses, but I don't. Maybe not, though. Who knows, like, how bad the economy gets. We'll see how things go in red states. That would have at least been a path. I think they would have had an equal chance of success, maybe slightly less chance of success, but more chance of being able to look yourself in mirror at night. And he didn't do that. He chose to do this. And his ads are disgusting. I guess the one other thing before we get to the focus groups and you hear this in the focus groups, like, the ads here are just. They're everywhere. You can't get away from them. And it is just entirely. Julia Letlow is a moderate squish Rhino and Bill Cassidy is the real maga. Bill Cassidy betrayed Trump and Julia Letlow is the real maga. That's the only thing the ads are about. It's just they've. They're spending tens upon millions of dollars to do TV ads about how the other person is a rhino and how they love Trump the most. And so if you're going to run that kind of campaign, fuck them. That's where I'm at.
- [12:56]
B
Yeah. I mean, this is. I guess this is where I am, which is you took that vote because you knew it was the right thing to do, which means, you know, all the rest of this, how wrong it is, and, and you can lose swinging. Like, you can go down swinging and saying, like, this stuff is wrong, or you can lose the way he's losing now. Like, you've, you've actually done harm to the medical community that you. That, like, you swore an oath to. You have done harm to our. To America. And, like, you're going to get crushed and they hate you. Like, I don't know. I guess I can't quite find it in my heart to be sad for him because of the damage that he's done, but sometimes I feel guilty about that. I'll just. So I'll just name that. All right, let's listen to how the voters talk about Cassidy right now. And just to be clear, for this, for this episode, we did two groups of Louisiana Republicans who are voting in their May 16 primary. Let's start by listening to how they talk about Cass.