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Sarah Longwell
You want Rubio and J.D. vance to wear Trump like an albatross around their necks. And that is why the lower that Trump goes and the longer he stays there. Not only does it help with the midterms, it also helps with 2028. It also helps with the future. And that's why it's so important.
Tim Miller
That's why we want the dick line.
Sarah Longwell
That's right.
Sam Stein
Sorry, what's the.
Sarah Longwell
You always make it about you.
Sam Stein
We're actually going to do a taping of tnl. Okay. And I'm playing the role of jvl, I think.
Tim Miller
All right. Get dark.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, you better be read. Pure nihilism. Okay? We're never getting out of this. Never getting solved.
Sam Stein
The people fucked us.
Tim Miller
The people? You did this?
Sam Stein
Some of. A lot of people handed us JBL stickers in line. All right, thank you. We're going to get into it. News of the day. You guys reference this. This slush fund. It's just. It's just 1.8 billion. All right? Small little matter. Our acting Attorney General, Todd Blanche today said anyone, anyone, anyone could claim that they deserve the slush fund. It doesn't matter if you assaulted a cop. And if you want money, you gotta submit a claim. Even Democratic senators can submit a claim, which seemed to me like a bribe. Tommy Tuberville, not the brightest senator in the world. Wait a second. Easy on Tommy. Even he said, that's too much. I don't think we should pay off the people who assaulted cops. And then they yanked the bill. The Senate Republicans yanked the bill that it was supposed to be over. This. It wasn't gonna be touched this. So, Tim, you start. Is this thing ever gonna see the light of day?
Tim Miller
I don't fucking know.
Sam Stein
I don't.
Tim Miller
I mean, like, how are we gonna claw it back, you know? I mean, like, Trump has been an innovator. Like, my view of this is maybe slightly different. I'm really fucking mad about the 1.8 billion. I don't want any of these fuckers to get the money. It is totally outrageous. But there's also, like, a little part of Dark Tim. Maybe I'll do JVL if I'm here. A little part of Dark Tim's like, let him give the fucking money away to people so that everybody else, as they start to struggle this summer at the gas pump, and they start to be like, wait a minute. He's giving out money to his fucking kids and to his fucking friends. Giving out my money, my tax money. That's one benefit. Benefit two is when Doug gets in there as president in 2029. I've got some people I want to shake down for 1.8 billion. Who's on your list? I want to start. Well, Jeff Bezos is at the top of it, and I don't know, I want to start handing out some money. I want to do Robin Hood. I want to do. What was the movie Denzel was in when he was handing out money at Christmas off the back of the truck. We're in la.
Sarah Longwell
American Gangster.
Tim Miller
American Gangster. I want to be Denzel off the back of the truck, throwing out 1.8 billion in 29. Maybe some of these people deserve it.
Sarah Longwell
Maybe sue for emotional harm.
Sam Stein
This is the time.
Tim Miller
I've been emotional. Have you been emotionally harmed by Donald Trump? I've been fucking emotionally harmed, but I've got a rash.
Sarah Longwell
I don't think that was from Trump.
Sam Stein
That was from pocket hoses
Sarah Longwell
in the green room. He's always showing me his rashes.
Tim Miller
So late night in San Diego.
Sam Stein
So your strategy is what we know as the touch the stove strategy.
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sam Stein
Explain it.
Tim Miller
Well, people need to feel what they voted for. They don't think, would we be here if we had just let Donald Trump be Donald Trump last time? Maybe, I don't know. But all those fucking, you know, Gary Cohn's of the World and Reince Priebus, that was, like, preventing him from being his worst self. Let's see it. I want to see unadulterated Trumpism. I want to see his naked body. I want to see his real skin. I want everyone to get. We got two and a half more years. I want everybody to experience the pain. I'm trying to do my jbl. It's the best I got.
Sam Stein
Do you want to see Trump's naked body, Sarah?
Tim Miller
Yes, kind of. I mean, think about how bad it would.
Sarah Longwell
Like, there's the part of you that
Tim Miller
wants to be like.
Sarah Longwell
You stand there naked while we ridicule you and throw fruit.
Sam Stein
This is like Game of Thrones shame.
Tim Miller
Basically, yes.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Do you think Tina Peters should get to touch the stone?
Tim Miller
Yeah.
Sarah Longwell
Shame, Tim.
Tim Miller
Shame.
Sam Stein
I thought we dealt with this last night.
Sarah Longwell
We did deal with it last night. I won. It was fine.
Sam Stein
A couple senators, Republican senators have come out against this thing. Tom Tillis. Imagine that. A fund that is set up to compensate people who assaulted Capitol police officers. How absurd does that sound coming out of my mouth? Mitch McConnell. So the nation's top law.
Tim Miller
Mitch McConnell's alive.
Sam Stein
He's alive.
Tim Miller
Really?
Sam Stein
So the nation's top law enforcement officials asking for A slush fund to pay people who saw cops utterly stupid, morally wrong. Take your pick. I mentioned Tommy Coach, Tommy Tuberville. This gets to sort of a larger issue, which is what's happening with these Republicans. How serious should we take this idea that they've seen some sort of light?
Sarah Longwell
Well, of course they haven't seen some sort of light. What they have seen is the beginnings of the Bush line. Donald Trump.
Sam Stein
You know, she can't stop talking about it.
Sarah Longwell
You know, I've been getting questions recently now that this is becoming a popularized term. You know, I did one in going into the election, I talked about the double haters a lot, and that became like a thing that everybody talked about. Unfortunately, this time, going into the midterms, it's going to be about the Bush line. You know, there's people on TV being like, as Sarah Longwell calls it, the Bush line. Peter Hamby wrote about it in Puck, and I was like, anyway, though. But people. So people have been asking me, why does it matter? Why does it matter if he gets to 32%? What's the point? He's not running again. So who cares how low his poll numbers are? And the reason that it matters is, number one, if you're JVL and you think, boy, this guy's going to run for a third term. He's not going to run for a third term if he's at 28%. Right? Like, I mean, let's not put anything past that.
Sam Stein
Hold on. Why do you say that?
Sarah Longwell
I think he would understand that he's unpopular.
Sam Stein
No, Donald, no.
Sarah Longwell
All right, all right. Everyone stop yelling. Everyone stop screaming. Everyone stop screaming. More importantly, Donald John Trump, Donald Trump Jr. More importantly, the other people in the Republican Party, the more unpopular his popularity is, the reason that they show so much fealty to him. The more unpopular he is, the more likely they are to start speaking out against things like the ballroom.
Tim Miller
This is true. This is why the stupid Bush line happens. Because, look, these guys just take us back a year, right? If we were in May of last year, there's no way that Thom Tillis or Tommy Tuberville or any of them are saying any of this, right? Because he seems so powerful. Everybody was cowering. The law firms are cowering. The CEOs are cowering. People are doing the Trump dance. And that mattered. It did. There was a cultural moment where it felt like this was ascendant. But this year it is different. And people are considering their political futures. They're considering whether or not that there's going to be blowback. And I don't think that these guys are worried about blowback. You think that Thom Tillis is worried that people are going to yell at him at the airport if he says that the stupid slush fund is dumb or the ballroom is dumb? No. And it's because, like, the vibes have shifted, and that's important. And I think that the more that. That the lower he goes, the more of this you're going to see. And, you know, that particularly gets, you know, becomes acute in the midterms.
Sam Stein
What is the Bush line? Like, what actually number is the Bush line?
Sarah Longwell
This is a great question. Thank you. Wait a guess. All right, but here's why it's important. It's 32%, but that is. That is the number that George W. Bush was at when he left office. Okay. And the reason, again, that this is important is if you think about the historical precedent, when Bush left office, the Republican Party never recovered from his unpopularity. He had a bad war and he had a bad economy. That sounds familiar, right? And so when you have those things, what happened is then the Republicans went into the wilderness. They lost two national elections, they struggled with their political identity, only to have Trump then come in and completely revamp the party. And so, look, I am under no illusions. The Republican Party is never going back to something that looks anything like it was before. But the question is, is, can the Republican Party become something that is not a criminal enterprise, that is not like an authoritarian, fascist enterprise? Maybe, I don't know. But, like, the one way that it would happen. The one way that it would happen is for Donald Trump to leave office with America going, that fucking sucked. Like, we don't want to do that again. We want to discredit Trump and everybody in his administration. Right. You want Rubio and J.D. vance to wear Trump like an albatross around their necks. And that is why the lower that Trump goes and the longer he stays there, not only does it help with the midterms, it also helps with 20, 28. It also helps with the future, and that's why it's so important.
Tim Miller
That's why we want the dick line.
Sarah Longwell
That's right.
Sam Stein
Sorry. What's the.
Sarah Longwell
You always make it about
Tim Miller
Richard Nixon hit 24%.
Sam Stein
All right.
Sarah Longwell
Do you listen to our show, Sam?
Sam Stein
I do. It's all set up. It's a setup for this. Just going to read a few numbers. Quinnipiac today, Trump approval handling of his job is 34% approved, 58% disapproved handling of the economy 33% approved. 64% disapproved. Immigration, 40% approved. 57 disapprove. Foreign policy, 35% approved. 60% disprove. In the situation in Iran, 33% approve. 61% disapprove. If he had to highlight one of those issues, that is the most problematic for him, I'm guessing Economy.
Sarah Longwell
It's the inflation. Was inflation on there or did you just do it?
Sam Stein
Control. Sorry.
Sarah Longwell
It's okay, because this is actually really important. So you see a lot of top line where people are like, the economy now. Everybody thinks the economy is doing bad, but actually the more important numbers are inflation and cost of living. And when I look at Trump's numbers, I always think about how do you take his overall approval rating, which is sitting in most of the aggregations, up around like 37%. But his actual numbers on improving people's cost of living, that's down at 32%. That the inflation numbers. In terms of people thinking about Trump's handling of inflation, that's down at 32%. So you want to close that gap for Trump where his overall approval is reflecting his numbers on people's lived experiences with the economy, not just.
Tim Miller
You're such a lib now know. Lived experience.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, man. I'm holding Space.
Tim Miller
Repetitive. I'm holding. We don't need to do the woke thing for things. Experience is lived experience. We don't need to do that. Latinx.
Sarah Longwell
Latinx.
Sam Stein
Is that what it. Is that the actual pronunciation?
Sarah Longwell
L. Next.
Tim Miller
It's Latinx.
Sarah Longwell
It doesn't matter because everyone should stop saying it.
Sam Stein
Let's. Okay, we are gonna have a. I can't get over there. We're gonna have a debate about whether there is a. So the setup here is that obviously, even amidst all this shit that Trump's gone through, I mean, it's objectively true, he still has an incredible sway over the Republican Party. And he's knocked a bunch of incumbent Republicans out of office in these primary elections. Bill Cassidy, soon to be John Cornyn, and Tom Massie in Kentucky. And Tim idiotically thinks that there's going to be. What do you call a Tom Massey Lane?
Tim Miller
Concerning. Concerning.
Sam Stein
You got three people. Congrats.
Tim Miller
If there's anyone in here that's in favor of a Tom Massey Lane, that's a bad sign for Tom Massey's chances in 2028.
Sam Stein
You have four people for Tom Massey here. There's so much. Not so much that you support Tom Massey, but will there be a lane for someone of that ilk to run as a Republican successfully? Or consequently.
Tim Miller
So this is my case for this. All right? Or this is what we're trying to. This is what we're aspiring to with the dick line. Okay? So just dream with me. People like, dream with me. Do remember I worked for a guy named Jon Huntsman that finished in Last place in 20, 2012.
Sarah Longwell
How's his name spelled?
Tim Miller
Good question. So it could be a last place dream again, but just stick with me. When Trump won in 2016, he ran as like a direct attack on the previous Republican Party that was not popular anymore. And when Obama won in 08, he ran. It was kind of like a sideways critique of the Democratic establishment, particularly on the Iraq war. Right. Like on particular issues. And honestly, it was foreign policy both times. Trump also on the war. And if this war continues to go as bad as it's going right now, and if it continues, and if the economy gets as bad as I think it's going to get as the year goes on, because I think we're really just beginning to feel the pain. And you get into 2027 and even the Republican base is like, I thought I fucking signed up for America first. Like, I thought I signed up for caring about us and not these stupid wars over here. I thought I signed up for figuring out who the child fuckers were in the Epstein files. These were the things that I signed up for. And Trump betrayed me. I don't think it's crazy to think that those people might look for somebody that can offer a critique of Donald Trump on those issues. It's not gonna be a fucking woe. It's not gonna be Nikki Haley. It's not gonna be Jon Huntsman. It's not gonna be Jeb, Exclamation point. Like, it's not that. Right. But could there be somebody who has a lot of disgusting opinions about immigration and race, but who also believes that we should care about America first, we should not get into stupid Middle east wars and like. And critiques Trump aggressively on those grounds. And like, I think yes. And I think that the fact that Thomas also Israel. And also Israel, Good point. And also Israel in particular, and our relationship with Israel. And Thomas Massie got 45% in fucking Kentucky in that primary. And if you end up in a multi way primary in 2028, like, that's a pretty good base to start from. And I don't think that Thomas Massie is going to be the Republican nominee in 2028, but I think that ideally, where we get to a place where Trump is so unpopular and he's fucked up so badly that somebody of that ilk could actually run against his administration and potentially have a path.
Sarah Longwell
Let me ask you this.
Tim Miller
That's my optimistic future. Can we just dream together? Can we not have an optimistic future?
Sarah Longwell
But hold on. So the reason. So I agree with you that that lane, the contours of that lane are real. I think the question is, is we say Thomas Massie and what we mean is somebody who is at least principled in certain ways. Right? But as we have discussed ad nauseam, I think there is going to be a fracture between the America first wing and the MAGA establishment wing. But I don't understand why it would be Massey versus, like, it seems to me that Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson occupy the lane you're talking about.
Tim Miller
Well, I would rather have Arby's in her pants, Marjorie, to green over Tucker. If I had to pick Massie is kind of my aspirational choice for that guy. I guess what I'm saying is. What I'm saying is the best case scenario is Thomas Massie, okay? It's not getting better than that, all right? You're not going to have anybody you like any more than that. So Thomas Massey is the best case choice. But I obviously agree that Tucker is the more likely person to fill that. And that's disgusting. And we were trying to be positive, you know, at a live show. And so I was, you know, I was looking at the brighter side of America first.
Sam Stein
Counterpoint.
Sarah Longwell
Counterpoint.
Sam Stein
Sam, I think you're an idiot. There is literally nothing to suggest that that would happen.
Tim Miller
He had 45% and they spent 19 million against him. That's pretty good. Is 45% not nothing.
Sam Stein
That's one. Did you ever see a campaign commercial from his opponent? Guy was like a fucking tomato candy. Zero personality to. You're like, oh, if Trump got to really bad approval on the economy in Iran and we're there, buddy. Like, we're there and he's already knocking off some.
Tim Miller
It's getting worse, though.
Guest or Additional Speaker
3.
Sam Stein
3. The man incited an insurrection on the Capitol and then they went down to Mar a Lago to kiss his ass. There is nothing in our history to suggest that there is a viable lane so long as he is alive for a Republican. He will. He will. He will meddle.
Tim Miller
He is not. He will make sure of health. No, you never know. I don't have a huge bruise on my neck.
Sam Stein
He will meddle in that primary and I'm. I'm in. Look, I. Maybe because sometimes I'm occupying the seat, but I I'm the JBL type here.
Tim Miller
Those little hickey jokes. All right.
Sam Stein
I got it going
Sarah Longwell
so much.
Sam Stein
So many sex jokes on this thing. I will tell you. I've become convinced of JVL's argument. Don Jr. I think he's a player.
Tim Miller
He's a tomato can, you know, I think. You don't think Thomas Massey could take
Sarah Longwell
down Don Jr. You're persuaded on the Don Jr. One?
Tim Miller
JVL convinced me he can't even open his eyes.
Sam Stein
You know what? Maybe not Undyne Jr. Cause I don't know if Trump, if his father loves him. Let's play a video clip. Let's play a video clip.
Sarah Longwell
How was your transition?
Tim Miller
Good job.
Sam Stein
Thank you.
Sarah Longwell
You're a real pro, man.
Sam Stein
Let's play a video of the president talking about his son's wedding, which appears to be coming up. This happened today.
Guest or Additional Speaker
He'd like me to go, but it's going to be just a small little private affair and I'm going to try and make it. I'm in the midst. I said, you know, this is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things. That's one I can't win on. If I do attend, I get killed. If I don't attend, I get killed by the fake news. Of course, I'm talking about now, but he's got a very person who I've known for a long time, and hopefully
Sam Stein
they're gonna have a great marriage. All right. I just wanted to set the stage here.
Tim Miller
Relatable.
Sam Stein
Him talking about attending his own son's wedding.
Tim Miller
Second wedding.
Sam Stein
Second wedding. Saying he might get killed. Killed if he goes to the wedding. I will just note Donald Trump and because he said, well, he's busy with Iran. Donald Trump has played golf 14 times since the war started. Not too busy to golf, but Don Jr. S wedding might be the line.
Tim Miller
So would you go to John. This takes me to the old Barack Obama joke from Correspondent Center. People are like, you have a drink with Mitch McConnell. Stop telling me to. Would you go to Don Jr. S wedding? I wouldn't.
Sarah Longwell
Is he marrying Kimberly Guilfoyle?
Sam Stein
No, they never got married.
Tim Miller
They broke up.
Sarah Longwell
They broke up.
Sam Stein
They broke up. She's now our ambassador to Greece. I don't know who he's marrying.
Sarah Longwell
You know what?
Tim Miller
This is why Gavin Newsom will never be president.
Sarah Longwell
You know that, right? You cannot keep. Do you know how many times I'll show this picture of Gavin Newsom on the bearskin rug with Kimberly Guilfoyle? Guilfoyle, me Once, shame on you, Guilfoyle. Me twice.
Tim Miller
So you're saying it's Eric. He might be turning to Eric. Ivanka, no, too woke. Too big on his.
Sam Stein
You mentioned Gavin Newsom. He was in D.C. this week at this ideas festival. He was asked about this idea of should Democrats impeach Trump?
Tim Miller
By who?
Sam Stein
I don't know. Some guy who cares. Some gaggled reporters. And it wasn't me.
Tim Miller
I thought I might have been you.
Sam Stein
No, it wasn't me.
Sarah Longwell
Oh, you didn't ask him?
Sam Stein
I thought I was there. I was there. This is insignificant to this point.
Sarah Longwell
You just kind of hyped this earlier, like it was you who asked him.
Tim Miller
It's a little confusing.
Sam Stein
All right, here we go. Gavin says no. He says, I fear that if you don't have the Senate while you're producing. Except a lot of headlines and fundraising appeals, to the extent accountability comes in many different forms. But we've been there, done that on multiple occasions. I know the base. I know a lot of people feel very strongly about that. But if there is an agenda that I would be promoting, that wouldn't be on the top of my agenda. And I actually.
Tim Miller
He said very strongly.
Sam Stein
That's a direct quote. Yeah, people feel very strongly about that.
Sarah Longwell
At some point, his performance art is going to become his real life. Like, the mask is going to grow to fit him, and he's just going to be this bizarro version of Trump.
Sam Stein
Gavin.
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
Sam Stein
Okay. Do we think impeachment should be on the table? Yes or no? And seriously, because this is a fissure.
Tim Miller
What do you guys think? Do you want to impeach him?
Sarah Longwell
Hold on, Wait, wait. Time out, time out, time out.
Tim Miller
Really?
Sarah Longwell
Everybody who thinks you should impeach Trump, say yes.
Date: May 22, 2026
Panel: Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller, Sam Stein (plus other guest voices at points)
Theme:
A deep-dive, irreverent roundtable discussing the enduring impacts of Donald Trump on the Republican Party, the current GOP landscape, and how Trump’s approval – or disapproval – could shape the post-Trump era for years to come.
The episode unpacks the latest GOP controversies, notably a "slush fund" scandal involving potential payouts to people involved in assaults on law enforcement during the Capitol riot. Panelists use this as a springboard to analyze how Trump’s persistent unpopularity is affecting his grip on the Republican Party and whether the GOP can ever evolve past Trumpism. There’s a clear focus on political accountability, possible realignments for the party, and which future figures might define a post-Trump right—all laced with characteristic Bulwark witticism.
(00:51–05:18)
(05:42–09:56)
(10:00–12:37)
(12:42–16:43)
(16:42–18:07)
(18:39–20:13)
The conversation is fast, irreverent, and deeply skeptical—laced with sarcasm and dark humor, but anchored by real polling and honest worry about the party’s future. There’s a sense of “hope for the best, expect the worst,” with constant ribbing among panelists.