Watch Rubio Laugh as Trump's Iran Story Falls Apart

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: Watch Rubio Laugh as Trump's Iran Story Falls Apart
Date: July 22, 2026
Host: Will Saletan (The Bulwark)
Theme:
This episode centers on Donald Trump’s repeated falsehoods and policy failures regarding Iran. Will Saletan breaks down how Trump’s statements about a supposed “powerful” peace deal fell apart as the reality on the ground—rising oil prices, renewed conflict, and increased American casualties—contradicted Trump’s proclamations. The episode uses Trump’s own words and several media exchanges, highlighting the self-inflicted nature of the political crisis and Trump’s attempts to bluff his way through the fallout.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Boastful Claims About the Iran Deal

• Timestamp: 00:00–01:01
  • Will opens by laying out the situation: Trump declared that the Iran war was over, the U.S. had won, a new deal was set, and economic relief was coming.
  • Quote: “Turns out it was all bs. The deal is off, the war’s back on, the price of oil is going right back up, and more American troops are getting killed. Why? Because Donald Trump is a complete idiot.” —Will Saletan (00:21)
  • Trump repeatedly called his new deal with Iran “a very powerful document,” specifically contrasting it with Obama’s Iran deal, which he derided.
  • Quote: “It’s not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. This is a very powerful document.” —(Imitating Trump, 00:53)

2. Trump Undermines His Own Deal in Public

• Timestamp: 01:01–01:33
  • Days after signing the deal, Trump is challenged by a reporter about its enforceability.
  • Reporter: “There’s nothing enforceable in the deal itself, is that correct?”
  • Trump: “Doesn’t have to be. I let him know. I said, look, if you don’t adhere to the agreement, I don’t want to do that, but we’re going to bomb the hell out of you.” (01:28)

3. Trump’s Bet on “New” Iranian Leadership

• Timestamp: 01:33–02:52
  • Trump’s claim: The deal didn’t need enforcement because Iran had new, smarter leaders, suggesting regime change for the better.
  • Quote: “But they have a new group of leaders that…I think they’re far less radicalized. And I think they’re…really good. They love their country, frankly. I think that’s regime change.” —(Imitating Trump, 01:54)
  • Will notes the false premise: Trump’s “new” leaders are essentially the same as the old guard.
  • Axios’s Mark Caputo challenges Trump directly, pointing out continuity in Iranian leadership: “But you have Khamenei Jr. You still have a lot of IRGC officials there.” (02:48)
  • Trump maintains, without evidence: “They’re different people. All right, Khamenei Jr’s different from the father…we have people that are much less radicalized.” (02:52)

4. Trump Publicly Admits Bombing Won’t Work

• Timestamp: 03:01–04:18
  • Trump, speaking to Caputo, says further bombings are futile—they’d just drive Iranian leaders underground and wouldn’t open the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Quote: “If we’re not going to put boots on the ground…they go deep into the caves…when we stop, they’ll come up, and they’ll probably be the same leaders.” —(03:58)
  • Trump makes it clear to Iran in public: He has no intention of “boots on the ground,” removing deterrence from U.S. threats.

5. Forewarning Economic Disaster—Then Living It

• Timestamp: 04:18–05:48
  • Trump tells Caputo why further attacks would backfire: Mines would block the Strait of Hormuz, missiles would target oil tankers, and this would crash the stock market.
  • Quote: “Hormuz Strait would be totally closed. You would have mines all over it...If I attack them, none of those ships are leaving. The stock market would be much lower. Now, think of this. I have one primary wish as president...I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.” —(05:08)
  • Will Saletan points out Trump’s self-sabotage: “I just want to pause here so we can appreciate what an unbelievable moron Donald Trump.” (05:48)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will Saletan, opening salvo:
  “Turns out it was all bs. The deal is off, the war’s back on, the price of oil is going right back up, and more American troops are getting killed. Why? Because Donald Trump is a complete idiot.” (00:21)

• Trump’s faux-confidence, undercutting himself:
  “If you don’t adhere to the agreement…we’re going to bomb the hell out of you.” (01:28)
  “I think they’re far less radicalized. And I think they’re…really good.” (01:54)

• On public blundering:
  “If we’re not going to put boots on the ground…when we stop, they’ll come up, and they’ll probably be the same leaders.” (03:58)

• On economic doom:
  “Hormuz Strait would be totally closed. You would have mines all over it…The stock market would be much lower. Now, think of this. I have one primary wish as president…I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.” (05:08)

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Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–01:01: Introduction, Trump’s initial claims about Iran deal
• 01:01–01:33: Immediate undermining of deal’s enforceability by Trump
• 01:33–02:52: Trump’s trust in Iran’s “new” leadership, fact-checked by press
• 03:01–04:18: Trump tells the world bombing won’t work, removes threat of boots on the ground
• 04:18–05:48: Trump outlines potential global economic crisis, seemingly foretells his own failure

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Tone & Style

Will Saletan’s narration is relentless, incredulous, and sardonic, often using Trump’s direct quotes and public statements to highlight the contradiction between rhetoric and reality. The tone is sharply critical, occasionally mocking, and laser-focused on exposing political incompetence.

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Summary:
In this episode, Will Saletan meticulously demonstrates, using Trump’s own words, how the former president’s Iran policy collapsed under its own contradictions, ill-thought-out claims, and public blunders. The commentary is pointed and urgent, tracing how Trump’s misinformation and lack of strategic thinking endangered U.S. interests and lives—while causing laughter (and disbelief) among both the press and key observers.

Transcript

[A]

Hey, it's Will Salatan from the Bulwark. Remember all that stuff Donald Trump said about the war in Iran? That it was over and we won and we had a deal and gas prices were going to come down and they were going to stay down? Well, turns out it was all bs. The deal is off, the war's back on, the price of oil is going right back up, and more American troops are getting killed. Why?

[B]

Why?

[A]

Because Donald Trump is a complete idiot. What I'm going to show you today is how he's trying, pathetically, to lie his way through this absolute fiasco as it exposes him for the fool he is. So let's go back a month, to the middle of June. That is when Trump signed his deal with Iran, and he told the press it was a very powerful document.

[B]

I mean, I want it to be released because it's a very powerful document. It's not like the Obama document, which was just a terrible document. This is a very powerful document.

[A]

Oh, no, no, it's not like that. That ridiculous Obama deal. No, this deal. This deal is powerful. But then. But then a couple of days later, a reporter asked Trump about this. This very powerful deal. And here is what Trump said. So you're threatening to bomb Iran if they don't comply, but there's nothing enforceable in the deal itself, is that correct?

[B]

Doesn't have to be. I let him know. I said, look, if you don't adhere to the agreement, I don't want to do that, but we're going to bomb the hell out of you.

[A]

In other words, Trump lied. The deal had no power at all. The only way to enforce the deal was to go back and bomb Iran again. But. But Trump said, oh, we didn't need to worry about enforcing the deal because. Because Iran had new leaders. And the new leaders, he said, were really, really good.

[B]

But they have a new group of leaders that I think is actually, I think they're smarter. I think they're very smart. I think they're far less radicalized. And I think they're. I think they're really good. They love their country, frankly. I think that's regime change. I think they're going to behave much differently. I think they see a different way of life.

[A]

So that was Trump's bet. The new leaders of Iran were good guys, and they were going to be totally different from the. From the bad old guys. But then Trump did an interview with Mark Caputo, who is a reporter for Axios, and Caputo pointed out that the new leaders of Iran were a lot like the old leaders.

[B]

And we're dealing with the third group, who I actually think is the smartest group. And I actually think it's regime change, if you want to know the truth. It's. These are different things. How was it regime change if you know? Because they're different people.

[A]

But you have Khamenei Jr. You still have a lot of IRGC officials there.

[B]

They're different people. All right, how many juniors different from the father? You have a number. And we have people that are much less radicalized.

[A]

You can see in that clip, people around Trump told him. They told him he was wrong. They told him, hey, you know, the new leader of Iran, the new leader is literally the son of the old leader. He's another ayatollah. And the irgc, that's the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they were still in power. But Trump just. He just blew it off. He said, oh, no, oh, no. The new government is totally, totally different. In fact, he was so confident in these. In these new leaders of Iran that he blabbed in that interview about how he was. He was done bombing Iran. He said more bombing would not help. He said it would just make everything worse.

[B]

The only way I can get tougher is if I go in there for another two or three weeks and continue to bomb the hell out of him. Right. But what does that get us? The strait of our moves will not be open. Let's say I did that. Let's say I decided to do that. If we're not going to put boots on the ground, Okay. I mean, you don't want boots on the ground. Right. If we're not going to put boots on the ground, probably the same people, you know, they go deep into the caves. They're called granite caves. They're very powerful. They go deep, and then when we stop, they'll come up, and they'll probably be the same leaders.

[A]

So here's Trump on worldwide video telling the leaders of Iran that he didn't believe more bombing would do anything. It wouldn't change the regime because they'd just go underground. Right. And then they'd come back. They'd come back up, and it wouldn't open the Strait of Hormuz, where the oil comes out. Trump even told them he wouldn't send in ground troops. You saw him say it. Right, Right there. So Iran didn't need to worry about that either. Right. And Trump would not shut up. He told Caputo that if the US Continued to bomb Iran, Iran would put mines in the strait. Right. And there would be missiles flying over the strait and oil tankers would stop coming out of the strait. And the stock market, the stock market would plummet.

[B]

We would right now have. The Hormuz Strait would be totally closed. You would have mines all over it. And it would have missiles flying over billion dollar ships. But if I attack them, none of those ships are leaving. If I went further, the stock market would be much lower. Now, think of this. I have one primary wish as president in terms of people. I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover. So this is the kind of thing that could cause a worldwide depression.

[A]

I just want to pause here so we can appreciate what an unbelievable moron Donald Trump.