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- [00:03]
A
Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my best friend Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark. And we are up for another bedhead show.
- [00:12]
B
I know, it's so early.
- [00:13]
A
Super early, super early. We're taping.
- [00:17]
B
I still have those, like, creases for my pillow on my face and I tried to put like cold cream on. Tried to put my one skin face on and now I just look shiny, so whatever.
- [00:29]
A
Well, I just came off of my bow and branch sheets and let me tell you. Okay, so we got a packed show, but you have a hard out. So we're going to move through this as quickly as we can. First, we were able to announce our very first show. Just us adieu. Just you and I, in my hometown, New York city.
- [00:52]
B
Yeah.
- [00:52]
A
On September 8th, you and I are going to be doing an event, an evening with Sarah Longwell and JVL at the 92nd Street. Yes. An iconic venue. I've always wanted to play the Y.
- [01:04]
B
Me too.
- [01:05]
A
Go to92y.org if you want to get tickets. We're going to be talking about your book. I have to figure out how we're going to do this because normally these conversations are about an interviewer who is just like, you know, the interviewer has read the book and is leading the star of the show around as a tour. But, like, you know, like, I did edit the book with you. I feel like my level of engagement in this is so, you know, like, it's gonna be a little weird for me to pretend. So, Sarah, what were you thinking about? I know what all your thoughts are, so I'm gonna have to come up with a great format for this.
- [01:38]
B
It's okay. I've already. I already know exactly what we should do. We should. Because the day that we're doing this and I just realized this, like, I think tickets just went on sale. We just announced the book tour yesterday and I really hope everybody from New York comes, but I think you and I should do like, hey, you worked on the book with me. But also there are points at the book where you and I strenuously disagree. There are points at the book where you and I are talking to each other. I just. Yesterday. And then we won't do a lot of book talk. But I just recorded the audiobook over this week.
- [02:12]
A
You did the whole thing in one week?
- [02:13]
B
I did the whole thing in three days. I was a reading machine.
- [02:16]
A
That's amazing.
- [02:18]
B
Yeah. You have to go in and do your.
- [02:19]
A
Do the forward next week. I'm doing it.
- [02:21]
B
It's interesting you know, I've never done anything like this, but they have like a whole editor and stuff that's there. And so when you skip a word or get an inflection wrong, there's like a director who's like, go back. But anyway, as I was reading it, so I've just read it the whole way through for the first time in a minute. And there's like multiple places in the book where I'm like, I think JV, like JVL would say, and JVL's ridiculous. It's like I was doing the John Jr. Part where you're like, insisting, you know, I was talking about MAGA establishment versus America first. How you think Don Jr. Is the solve. I think that's crazy, but also, there's a point there. Anyway, so, like, you and I are in this conversation in this book, and I think you should say, look, I was in this, but there's a bunch of places where I think Sarah's wrong. And that, like, that's part of our ongoing conversation about this. And like, we press into those pieces. There's also, I'll say this, there's a bunch of autobiographical stuff in the book that. Remember when you and I did that show that we killed?
- [03:24]
A
The Lost show?
- [03:25]
B
The Lost show where we just asked each other super personal questions. There's a lot of that stuff in there. Like, I did put a bunch of things that.
- [03:33]
A
It's some of the best stuff in the book, actually. The memoir ish stuff is fantastic.
- [03:38]
B
And there's a lot in there that even people who listen to this show don't know that I decided to put in there because it's part of the story about all this stuff. And so I don't know. I think there's a lot of that that'll be pretty brand new for us to talk about.
- [03:51]
A
I'm. I'm excited. It's going to be great.
- [03:53]
B
I'm excited, too. There's nobody I'd like to do it with more.
- [03:56]
A
It's going to be awesome. So, hey, friends, if you're in the city, come up and do it also. I mean, this is not really, not really related, but it's on my mind. The pro shot of Hadestown with the original cast is being released in theaters, and I think it's next week or the week after. And I think you should go and take your family to go see it because it's a chance for you to see how it ends.
- [04:24]
B
Okay? Just. This is. Nobody's going to get this conversation. I don't think there's anybody here who knows.
- [04:29]
A
It's a long running thing. Hadestown, my second favorite Broadway show ever. And Sarah actually walked out on it.
- [04:38]
B
I got bored and left.
- [04:40]
A
I've never heard of somebody leaving a Broadway show. Okay, okay, okay. 8,000, 647. The world is abuzz with. Are you threatening me that the figures 8,000, 647 have appeared on the grass in the National Mall? Some nefarious group, probably a terrorist cell, did it. And the first question I have, Sarah, is this means they'll have to cancel all of the America250 stuff because this is such a serious threat that the Secret Service in the US Military should probably lock down all of Washington DC because this is a real threat against the life of the President of the United States. I guess we'll have to cancel everything, right?
- [05:29]
B
That's a great point. I hope they cancel everything. It's a circus out here.
- [05:35]
A
Bad.
- [05:36]
B
It's just everything down there. First of all, okay, we keep going to the Kennedy center to check. Name is still up. Like, everything in D.C. is so weird. It's all under litigation. Like, the Arch is under litigation. The ballroom's under litigation. The Kennedy center is under litigation. And you never know. There's like constant injunctions. So it's like, is it up? Is it down? They said it's supposed to be down. The court said it's supposed to be down. So we keep sending people, places to the reflecting pool. Like, is it. Is it.
- [06:06]
A
Is it blue?
- [06:07]
B
Is it swimming pool? Is it swimming pool blue? No, it's like brackish, normal. All of the renderings are absurd. And so what? Whatever. I didn't know about the 8, 6, 4, 7. On. Is that a story? Is that a real thing?
- [06:24]
A
It's a real thing. It's. It's all over the news this morning. I mean, boy, you know, so I hope.
- [06:31]
B
No, they got to cancel it. They got to cancel the Idiocracy Command show. Guys, if you just think about it for five minutes, if you really sit there and say there is going to be a claw and a UFC cage and what on the White House lawn.
- [06:49]
A
It's already there. Good chance of rain on Sunday. So this is all on Sunday. I hope it's gonna be mid-90s.
- [06:55]
B
Yeah.
- [06:56]
A
Chance of thunder.
- [06:57]
B
Welcome to. Welcome to the real swamp, guys.
- [07:00]
A
The humidity.
- [07:01]
B
The humidity here will kill you.
- [07:04]
A
I gotta say, having guys doing mma outdoors in mid-90s, maybe not the safest thing in the world. You know, I mean, that. That's not great for the athletes I don't think. But that's okay. I mean, it's where we are. Okay. Moving on. Iran. So we were, as of yesterday, Thursday, we were about to unleash hell, and we were just poised for all the strikes. And then, miraculously, last night. I guess it wasn't last night. I guess it was in the.
- [07:43]
B
The.
- [07:44]
A
During the day, the President said, actually, we're gonna hold off on those strikes. We're super close to a deal. At which point the stock market shot up.
- [07:54]
B
Sure.
- [07:55]
A
So I. I will. I want to run a couple things by you on this, because on the one hand, like, why do we even talk about these things? Right. This is. It's been the same story for 100 days now, more than 100 days. Like, oh, we're closed in the markets where everybody just. The President of the United States is a liar.
- [08:17]
B
Yeah. I don't know why you put it on the show map. I've been, like, basically ignoring this. I will believe it when I see it.
- [08:25]
A
So I think it's actually real this time. Can I give you my theory? Yeah.
- [08:30]
B
I mean, you'll have to explain that to me because it seems a pattern of everything else.
- [08:36]
A
So here's. Here's why I think it's real. If you look at it from Trump's perspective, are there any places where taking an exit ramp become, like, super attractive to him? And I think the weekend of his birthday with his big UFC fight is one of them. So if he can claim on Sunday, look at VI Day. It's VI Victory Over Iran Day. We did it. They've surrendered. We win. We win. We win at his big UFC fight. That's a very attractive thing.
- [09:19]
B
Okay.
- [09:20]
A
Iran knowing that has a lot of incentive to say, all right, well, we'll give you something. If you tick off this, this, this, this, and this box now. So we have reporting from Politico Europe this morning that the Iranians this time are saying, actually, yeah, large parts of the negotiating texts have been finalized. And according to Iranian state media, what it looks like we are getting is, again, this is Iranian state media's portrayal of what is on the table. Not a deal, just a memorandum of understanding. What is a memorandum of understanding? It's nothing just for people to understand. It is a framework to talk about things at a later date. Which means from Trump's perspective, he can say, look, I got the deal. While from the Iranians perspective, they can say, whatever. We're just talking more, bro. You know what I'm saying? Like, they. Both sides get to claim what they Want the representations being made by Iranian state media is that this memorandum of understanding will have a ceasefire in it. The Strait of Hormuz will open, but not back to pre war levels. The governance of the strait will no longer be done under international law, but will be, it will be administered, managed by joint operations between Iran and Oman. You know, just like the two countries on either side. Just makes totally, totally, totally, total sense, the nuclear stuff. According to again, the Iranian state media on this, the memorandum of understanding would say, oh, we're going to spend the next 60 days talking about the nuclear stuff. We'll talk about it. Oh, and also by the way, sanctions start rolling back, this sounds to me like total victory, not total for the Iranians, but a very, a, a very good thing for the interests of the Iranian Islamic Republic. And but Trump will get to say, look, I got, I got a deal, I got a deal. Look at my deal, I have my papers in my deal. And we're going to have a next week a bunch of world leaders over in Switzerland for the G7. And so they could, they're doing it in Evian, by the way, which I guess is, is in France, not Sweden, but Geneva is right there. And so you could do a signing or ceremony on Sunday in Geneva. And because of the way the time works, because they're ahead of us, they could sign that like noon Geneva time. And then by the time we get to fight time in the octagon on the White House lawn, Trump could be triumphantly proclaiming his victory over Iran. I think that for Donald Trump this is a highly attractive. Right. The guy thinks of everything in terms of production and how it looks. I think he will be willing to give Iran basically anything they want in order to, to get this done for Sunday. That's my case.
- [12:47]
B
I like this theory. I think your theory makes a lot of sense. It makes sense from Trump's psychological and performative standpoint. Here's the counterpoint though. One this particular, first of all, what, they're going to have a signing in Geneva on a memo of understanding. That's the kind of thing you docusign. You don't go to Geneva to sign a memo of understanding. I do.
- [13:09]
A
If it means getting Vance out of
- [13:10]
B
the house for it, yeah, maybe. Okay. But also, so this is where we were like a month ago. There was this exact deal. We give them money, we lose access to international control of the strait, they make no commitments on nuclear weapons and there's a 60 day ceasefire was the deal they had before. And like, here's the thing. He can announce that deal. It will not be without total backlash from most of his allies. Like, anybody who's supporting him right now will freak out about that particular deal because it's not a deal. It's not a deal. Hold on. Sorry, sorry, sorry. All right, well, go ahead. You say this.
- [13:50]
A
No, I'm just asking. Would. Would they. Would they dare do it? After what. Watching what just happened to John Cornyn, and he just. Look, he just dragged Lindsay over the finish line. Is Lindsay gonna. I think Lindsay gives him cover on this.
- [14:05]
B
Maybe just a little. I don't know, man. I. Here's the thing, though, but here's my bigger counterpoint.
- [14:10]
A
Okay, go ahead.
- [14:12]
B
These guys haven't been able to manage a ceasefire at all. Also, Israel seems to have increasingly a divergent agenda from us, which is. Trump was like, I thought this would be over now because I had no idea what I was doing. And I was just listening to you. It's. Now it's costing me politically and I'm bored of it. So you're on your own. But, like, Israel can keep. They can keep fighting. And also, like, I don't know, they just. We were supposed to be in a ceasefire and a drone shot one of our helicopters down, and then we bombed them for a couple days. So I guess just color me skeptical. That and also, sorry. And one last counterpoint. Trump has announced that we have a deal multiple times. Like, I'm not sure I know I hear what you're saying about him trying to say did this. But, like, he's cried wolf on this so many times that. Does the added production value make it real, or is it just another time of him saying it and then somebody bombs somebody else and, like, we're back to the same place.
- [15:16]
A
I don't think Trump can tolerate having the war ongoing by July 4th. I just think he will have a psychological need to claim America. 250 is our hard reset. That is our. We're looking forward. We flip the switch and we stop talking about Iran. And I will give the Iranians whatever the fuck they need in order to do that by. And the beauty of doing this via memorandum of understanding is that the Iranians aren't actually bound by anything. And Trump can know that whatever they can break the memorandum. Once he says, we got a deal, he walks away from this and he never goes back. Right. It doesn't matter what the Iranians do, because he is not going to go back to war over there. Like, I think he's learned his lesson politically. I think he touched the stove here. Maybe I'm wrong, but this is. This is my thesis.