The Business of Fashion Podcast

Episode: Tariffs Are Down, But Uncertainty Is Back

Date: February 24, 2026
Participants:

• Sheena Butler Young (Senior Correspondent, Host)
• Brian Baskin (Executive Editor, Co-host)
• Mark Bain (BoF Reporter, Guest)
• Kathleen (Kat) Chen (BoF Reporter, Guest)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the complex aftermath in the fashion industry following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down Trump-era tariffs on imported fashion goods—and the quick reimposition of new tariffs. While the initial reaction was relief, a new wave of uncertainty has pulled the industry back into “purgatory.” The BoF team unpacks how businesses are navigating ongoing unpredictability, the operational impact of rapid tariff changes, and what it all means for brands, retailers, and consumers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Industry Mood: From Relief to Uncertainty

[00:08–01:45]

• The Supreme Court struck down Trump's initial tariffs, giving a brief sense of relief within the industry, only for new tariffs (starting at 10%, then quickly raised to 15%) to be enacted.
• Quote (Kathleen Chen, 01:16): “It's like we're back to this purgatory of uncertainty, which was the vibe for most of last year when brands and retailers had no idea where tariffs were going to land.”
• Brands are once again hesitant to make financial plans due to unpredictable policy shifts.

2. Stock Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

[02:04–02:38]

• Retailer stocks initially rose after the Supreme Court ruling, but quickly dropped as new tariffs were imposed.
• Quote (Brian Baskin, 02:14): “All the stocks that went up 4% last week are down 10% this week.”
• Illustrates the volatility and lack of confidence in long-term stability.

3. Operational Paralysis: Navigating Uncertainty

[03:01–05:43]

• Decision-making has shifted to being highly reactive. Brands delay price and promotion adjustments until after receiving import invoices.
• Quote (Kathleen Chen, 03:54): “He would make that decision on pricing after he has seen what he is charged by Border and Customs Control. That’s like the level of how disruptive these tariffs are.”
• Companies are unable to plan long-term or implement best business practices; instead, they’re in a constant cycle of short-term, invoice-based decisions.

4. The New Playbook: The Corporate “War Room”

[05:43–06:39]

• Rather than delegating crisis management to supply chain executives, whole executive teams are now involved.
• Quote (Mark Bain, 05:55): “Now it's like you get everyone in the C suite together into a war room and you have to figure out across the business what you are doing.”
• Ongoing negotiation within companies and with consumers has become the norm.

5. Tariff Refunds: Legal Complexity and Consumer Misconceptions

[06:45–09:47]

• Brands may be eligible for refunds on prior tariffs, but the process is complicated, legalistic, and may ultimately yield little.
• Quote (Mark Bain, 07:20): “Consumers are probably not getting refunds. It's not going to be a simple and swift process.”
• Quote (Sheena Butler Young, 09:07): “A refund is only likely with a final unappealable ruling, which could involve further rounds of briefings and oral arguments.”
• Consumer expectations of personal refunds are misplaced.

6. Impact on Consumer Prices & Brand Responses

[09:47–12:40]

• Some brands may use cost relief to discount, but many will retain higher prices to improve profitability rather than reduce sticker prices.
• Quote (Kathleen Chen, 10:12): “A lot of companies also were able to drive their top line growth because of higher prices… If I don’t change prices then my profitability will improve.”
• Well-positioned brands with high consumer demand, like Coach, are unlikely to lower prices.

7. Consumer Perspective: Sticker Shock & Brand Loyalty

[12:40–14:32]

• Consumers feel frustrated: companies raise prices in hardship, but rarely lower them when circumstances improve.
• Quote (Sheena Butler Young, 12:40): “Every time these sort of shocks happen… companies say there's nothing we can do… and then they get relief and they say, actually you were able to buy at that price and now that gives us wiggle room.”
• The industry trend is toward paying more and buying less, with a shift in consumer attitudes and less blind brand loyalty.

8. The Bigger Picture: Pricing, Quality, and New Consumer Expectations

[14:32–16:00]

• “Quality piece pricing” is a growing trend; consumers have become more discerning about value for money, especially in luxury categories.
• Quote (Kathleen Chen, 14:32): “How you factor in your pricing in relation to the perception of your brand is going to be really delicate.”
• The cost-of-living squeeze (higher rent, groceries, etc.) amplifies these dynamics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's like we're back to this purgatory of uncertainty.” – Kathleen Chen, 01:16
• “All the stocks that went up 4% last week are down 10% this week.” – Brian Baskin, 02:14
• “He would make that decision on pricing after he has seen what he is charged by Border and Customs Control.” – Kathleen Chen, 03:54
• “Now it's like you get everyone in the C suite together into a war room.” – Mark Bain, 05:55
• “Consumers are probably not getting refunds. It's not going to be a simple and swift process.” – Mark Bain, 07:20
• “A lot of companies… were able to drive their top line growth because of higher prices.” – Kathleen Chen, 10:12
• “Every time these sort of shocks happen… companies say, 'nothing we can do'… and then they get relief and say, 'you were able to buy at that price and now that gives us wiggle room.'” – Sheena Butler Young, 12:40
• “How you factor in your pricing in relation to the perception of your brand is going to be really delicate.” – Kathleen Chen, 14:32

Lightning Round: Predictions for the Tariff Saga

[16:00–17:39]

• Mark Bain (16:15): “It's going back to court. Whatever it is, it'll be back in court at some point.”
• Brian Baskin (16:21): “The trajectory overall is going to be toward lower tariffs. Not where we were pre-Trump, but… the era of Trump threatening 50% tariffs… is basically over.”
• Sheena Butler Young (16:48): “Anytime Trump gets a significant thumbs down, like one from the Supreme Court… that's really significant in this political climate… it will be, I think, better than expected in the realm of tariffs.”
• Kathleen Chen (17:18): “The Democrats are going to have great midterm elections… it’s just a prediction, not a personal opinion.”
• Panel consensus: Tariffs will likely never return to the extreme highs of the recent past, but legal and political battles will persist.

Conclusion

The episode provides an in-depth look at the fashion industry’s ongoing difficulty in navigating tariff-induced uncertainty. Although legal developments offered brief optimism, rapid policy changes and persistent unpredictability have brands locked in a cycle of short-term, reactive strategies. Operational efficiency, pricing structure, profitability, and consumer trust are all in flux. The ability of brands to weather these storms depends on their agility, brand strength, and ability to adapt to new consumer values—and, as the panel agrees, the policy debate is far from over.

For more reporting on this and other fashion business topics, visit Business of Fashion's professional platform.