In this episode of The Canadian Macro Investor Podcast, Simon and Dan break down the latest Fed decision and why the bond market may be starting to challenge Kevin Warsh’s inflation message. They discuss the split reaction across the yield curve, with short-term yields moving differently than longer-term yields, and what that could mean for inflation, recession risk and future rate hikes.

They also look at Canada’s population data problem and why undercounting temporary residents could distort unemployment, mortgage delinquency trends and the broader read on the Canadian economy.

From there, they dig into big tech earnings, including Microsoft and Meta, and why investors are paying closer attention to AI capex, free cash flow, depreciation, and credit default swaps across the hyperscalers. They also discuss Anthropic, open-weight AI models, data privacy concerns, tariffs, copper demand, and what the AI infrastructure build-out could mean for energy and markets.

Tickers discussed: MSFT, META, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, ORCL, AAPL, SKM

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