The Carey Nieuwhof Leadership Podcast

Episode 765: The Real Difference Between Growing and Declining Churches
Guest: Thom Rainer
Date: November 6, 2025

Overview

In this episode, host Carey Nieuwhof talks with renowned church researcher and author Thom Rainer about recent surprising trends in church growth and decline. They discuss the factors distinguishing growing from declining churches, how Gen Z is responding to faith and community, the dangers of polarization, and practical ways any church can reach the next generation—especially the so-called “anxious generation.” Rainer shares groundbreaking research, compelling stories, and actionable insights for leaders navigating a rapidly changing ministry environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Reversal in Church Decline: Surprising Data

• Thom and Carey reflect on recent evidence showing a surprising reversal in church decline, particularly among Gen Z.
  • Carey ([02:04]): “For the first time in my memory, we're seeing statistical evidence that the historic decline in the church is starting to reverse a little bit.”
  • Thom ([02:20]): “To say I'm blown away is an understatement. To say I was wrong is an understatement as well. I am grateful I was wrong, and I'm grateful for what I'm seeing God doing.”
• Mainline church decline continues, but evangelical churches showing renewed growth in professions of faith and church attendance.

Gender Shifts: More Men Returning to Church

• Notable and unexplained trend: Men are returning to church at higher rates than women, reversing longstanding patterns.
  • Thom ([04:48]): “My honest answer is, I cannot explain it...I'm so surprised at the gender trend...I wish I could make up some statistics.”

Emergence of the “Analog Church”

• Gen Z is craving real, in-person connection and beginning to reject over-digitized lives.
  • Thom ([06:23]): “Gen Z is really rejecting a lot of the digital. Not totally, not completely, but they're seeing that there's something else in their lives right now...They’re smart, and they know it. And so if it’s not working in their lives, they’re asking the question, ‘What is there?’”
• Both Thom and Carey anticipate the future of the church is rooted in human connection, not digital novelty.

Growth vs. Decline: The Key Differentiator

• ESSENTIAL INSIGHT: Churches that consistently grow, especially among Gen Z, hold at least three outwardly focused events per year.
  • Thom ([11:52]): “Churches that have at least three outwardly focused events on their calendar in a year are the churches that are growing and reaching Gen Z. That sounds too simple, but...if there were at least three a year, then that church had a high likelihood of not only being in a growth mode, but a Gen Z mode.”
• Outwardly focused events must be intentional, with church members actively involved in inviting and connecting, not merely hosting.

What Counts as “Outwardly Focused”?

• “Friend Day” or “Invite Your One” Sundays ([14:28])
• Community sports leagues or events (e.g., Upward Sports, pickleball, 5Ks) ([15:28])
• Vacation Bible camps (but only if focused on non-churched families with intentional engagement) ([22:02])
• Alpha courses—highly relational, evangelistic, focused on unchurched invitations ([23:10], [23:25])

The Power of Invitation and Relationship

• Eating together multiplies effectiveness: Inviting someone for a meal before/after church drastically increases likelihood of attendance.
  • Thom ([19:53]): “When someone invites someone to church and asks them to go for coffee or a meal afterwards or before...the number jumps up to almost 80%. Wow, the relationship.”
• Churches with a genuine “invite culture” are rare—most need intentional events to catalyze growth ([18:50], [18:55]).

Obstacles in Declining Churches

• Leaders in plateaued or declining churches often:
  • Lead from a place of despair, believing growth is impossible ([27:16])
  • Are overburdened with non-missional tasks (excessive committees, pastoral care, administrative meetings) ([28:38])
  • Fail to focus on prayer, evangelism, and intentional outreach ([28:38], [29:12])

The Anxious Generation: Gen Z’s Needs and Opportunities

• Based on Jonathan Haidt’s The Anxious Generation and Rainer’s research:
  • The church is, statistically, the healthiest context for a young person struggling with anxiety ([33:09], [34:55])
  • Even secular voices (e.g., Haidt, Elon Musk) are lamenting the cultural and social vacuum left by declining church influence.
• Gen Z is highly open to new approaches and genuine relationships—more so than many expect ([49:03]).
• Reverse Halo Effect: Unchurched people often see more value in the church than church members themselves—members' negativity inhibits invitation ([50:03]).

Polarization: A Central Threat

• Polarization (fueled by social media, algorithms, and political divides) is crippling Gen Z, families, and churches ([37:05]).
• Churches must resist importing polarization and weaponized scripture; instead, they need to model unity and love across differences ([43:06], [47:11]).
• Memorable Quote — Carey ([47:03]): “It’s almost like they need to know that you love them more than you love what they think.”
  • Thom ([47:11]): “Boy, you need to go clip that and put it on a board and just save it somewhere.”

Example of Cultural Engagement

• Thom shares how his wife Nellie Jo models deep love and friendship toward people with different life choices, never compromising biblical convictions but always leading with acceptance and care ([47:33]).

Key Research Findings & Data

• Attrition Rate: On average, churches lose roughly 32 out of every 100 in attendance each year due to death, moving, and especially reduced attendance frequency—not outright desertion ([52:27], [52:54]).
• Conversion Effectiveness: In 1980, 41 church members on average resulted in one conversion annually. By 2025, it takes 93 church members for one conversion ([55:27]), a sign of reduced evangelistic intentionality.
  • Thom ([58:04]): “We are much less evangelistic than we were many years ago.”
• Many churches label outreach/mercy events as evangelism but lack any real gospel intentionality ([59:22]).

Reaching Gen Z: Encouragement & Examples

• Gen Z is extremely open to exploring new, more meaningful paths.
• Even “dying” churches can pivot:
  • Example: A church with a median age of 74 and median attendance of 28 grew to 150 (median age in the 20s) within a year after one woman began meeting with single moms—intentionality and faith made the difference ([61:35]).
  • Thom ([62:56]): “God is not done with these churches. Don’t think he is. Ask the maybe trite and simplistic question: what can God really do through me if I’m obedient to him to reach others with the gospel?”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On church growth simplicity:
  • “Churches that have at least three outwardly focused events on their calendar in a year are the churches that are growing and reaching Gen Z.” (Thom, [11:52])
• On polarization:
  • “Polarization is not the biblical way. To be one in Christ is the beautiful...way of the Bible.” (Thom, [37:05])
• On love and unity:
  • “They need to know that you love them more than you love what they think.” (Carey, [47:03])
• On unchurched openness:
  • “They like the church more than the church likes the church, at least from the past.” (Thom, [49:54])

Important Timestamps

• 02:04 – Surprising reversal in church decline
• 11:52 – Three outwardly focused events: the differentiator
• 15:28 – Examples of outward-focused events (Upward Sports, pickleball)
• 18:50 – Invite culture and personal experience
• 19:53 – Power of inviting to meals (80% attendance stat)
• 27:16 – How church leaders get in their own way
• 33:09 – Influence of Jonathan Haidt’s “Anxious Generation”
• 37:05 – Danger of polarization for Gen Z and the church
• 47:03 – The importance of loving people above opinions
• 49:03 – Gen Z’s surprising openness to church
• 52:27 – 32% annual attendance attrition explained
• 55:27 – Conversion effectiveness over time
• 61:35 – Single act of faith revitalizing an aging church

Takeaways & Action Steps for Leaders

• Prioritize Outward Focus: Schedule and execute at least three community-focused, evangelistic events per year—with prayer and intentional engagement.
• Embrace Relationship: Don’t underestimate the power of hospitality; sharing a meal multiplies the effectiveness of invitations.
• Audit Ministry Tasks: Minimize time spent on maintenance modes (committees, internal care) and maximize focus on prayer, outreach, and building connections.
• Resist Polarization: Cultivate environments of unity and acceptance—centered on Christ, not on contentious issues—especially for Gen Z.
• Love First: Make people feel loved above all; Gen Z (and all people) need to experience genuine care to be open to the gospel.
• Every Church Can Rebound: No church is too old or too small to experience renewal if willing to take faithful, intentional risks.

Connect with Thom Rainer:

• churchanswers.com
• Social: @ThomRainer

Book Mentioned:

• The Anxious Generation Goes to Church by Thom Rainer

This episode is a must-listen for leaders navigating change, growth barriers, and generational shifts in the church. The data, stories, and practical wisdom shared by Thom Rainer paint a compelling picture of hope for the future—one event, one invitation, and one relationship at a time.