The Carey Nieuwhof Leadership Podcast

Episode CNLP 777 | 2026 Disruptive Church Trends: Gen Z Leading Church Attendance Surge, Women Exiting Faith, + The Impact of Discipleship By Algorithm
Aired: January 6, 2026

Episode Overview

In this annual "Church Trends" kickoff, Carey Nieuwhof explores seven disruptive trends shaping the North American and global church landscape entering 2026. He merges fresh Barna research, anecdotal evidence, and cultural observation, with a focus on both signs of hope (notably a Gen Z-fueled attendance spike) and pronounced challenges (such as women’s exodus from faith and the spiritual risks of algorithm-driven discipleship). Carey calls church leaders to see opportunity in the moment’s disruption, to adapt boldly, and to ready themselves—and their teams—for a rapidly changing future.

Key Takeaways & Trends

1. Gen Z Leading a Surge in Church Attendance

Timestamps: 09:27 – 13:22

• Gen Z is now the most frequent church-attending generation, averaging 1.9 times per month, surpassing Millennials and older generations.
• In the UK, Gen Z church attendance among 18-24-year-olds quadrupled over eight years (4% to 16%).
• Carey suggests young people are turning to church for "an alternative to the culture," not a mirror of it.
• Memorable Quote:

  "The church has gone from despair to desperation. And what that's done is it's driven a lot of young adults to Jesus. They're not really seeking an echo of the culture, but an alternative to it." (Carey, 12:04)

• Action: Leaders should prepare their congregations for renewal, but recognize that revival is fundamentally God’s action.

  "You can't really create a revival... but you can position yourself spiritually for renewal and revival." (Carey, 13:12)

2. Young Men Attending, Young Women Leaving

Timestamps: 13:25 – 20:29

• Young men, once considered the most difficult group to reach, are showing unprecedented engagement with church.
• Conversely, Gen Z women are less engaged than their male peers in prayer, Bible reading, and attendance.
• Possible reasons:
  • Culture's changing views on gender roles
  • Rightward shift in some evangelical churches may attract men but alienate women
  • Lack of leadership opportunities for women within churches
  • Continued impacts of church-related abuse scandals (#MeToo, #ChurchToo)
• Young female influencers are building platforms outside the church (books, podcasts, NGOs) rather than from inside.
• Memorable Quote:

  "Women have risen to higher levels of leadership in their jobs or even as elected government officials, but don't see the same opportunities or valuing of their gifts in the church." (Carey, 17:33)

• Action: Audit your church’s demographics and ministry structures for inclusivity.

  "If you're attracting a particular demographic—say, only wealthy people, or white people, or just males—maybe it's time to audit your ministry and ask why." (Carey, 01:01)

3. Evangelism Is Getting Bolder & More Direct

Timestamps: 20:32 – 24:35

• Old model: Invite friends to Sunday services (rarely acted on).
• New model: Young believers and influencers engage directly in evangelism on streets, campuses, and especially online (YouTube, TikTok).
• The internet is now full of “evangelist-influencers” sharing the Gospel directly.
• Key Insight: Churches are often “bypassed” by the next generation, who prefer peer-to-peer, direct communication.
• Memorable Quote:

  "The trend has moved from the seats to the streets." (Carey, 22:52)

• Action: Church leaders need to leverage and empower digital evangelists in their own congregations, rather than assign them menial tasks.

  "Maybe the best thing you can do for that group this year is to pour fuel on their fire. Encourage them, support them, resource them, and even learn from them." (Carey, 24:10)

4. Preaching Shifting from Presentation to Encounter

Timestamps: 27:05 – 30:44

• While much about church culture has changed, the Sunday sermon (as a 30-40 minute presentation) has remained largely static.
• 30 years ago, sermons were scarce—now, sermons are everywhere online, but authentic community is scarce.
• The need is to create encounters with God, not just information delivery.
• Gen Z seeks both an “emotional and intellectual” faith experience.
• Memorable Quote:

  "People are tired of showing up for church hoping to find God, but only finding us and our performance instead." (Carey, 29:45)

• Action: Prioritize facilitating genuine encounters with God and inviting the Holy Spirit to move during services.

5. Discipleship Is Largely Controlled by Algorithm

Timestamps: 30:49 – 36:49

• People in pews are vastly more influenced by digital algorithms (social media feeds, YouTube, TikTok) than church teachings.

  "Most people today are discipled by algorithms more than they're discipled by their pastor or their local church." (Carey, 31:01)

• Average congregant: 49 hours/week screen time vs. 30 min/week in church teaching and 2 hours in group settings.
• Pastors’ attempts to address cultural or theological issues receive backlash, as people arrive pre-formed in different ideological camps.

  "It's increasingly impossible to say anything on key cultural or theological issues that doesn't generate a slew of negative responses." (Carey, 32:06)

• The temptation is to become an echo chamber, but this only creates factionalism and ultimately irrelevance.
• Memorable Insight:

  "If everyone in your church agrees with you all the time, chances are you're discipling an echo chamber, not a true church." (Carey, 34:21)

• Action: Focus on faithfully preaching the full Gospel, expect opposition from all sides, and avoid mimicking cultural factions.

6. Senior Pastors Are Aging Out, Young Leaders Not Replacing Them

Timestamps: 37:06 – 41:56

• Average US senior pastor is now 58 years old; shortages of younger leaders loom.
• 1992: Average age was 44; only 6% were over 65.
• Few young Christians are pursuing ministry to fill the gap; economic factors (underpaid positions) discourage entry.
• Many current leaders lack confidence in the next generation—71% of survey respondents are concerned about their successors' quality.
• Solutions: Churches may need to restructure salaries, encourage youth toward ministry from an early age, and develop talent pipelines.
• Memorable Quote:

  "A few highly competent, motivated and called staff will lead the church much better than twice the number of average or below average team members." (Carey, 41:10)

7. The Church Has Yet to Brace for the Coming AI Revolution

Timestamps: 43:41 – 50:01

• AI poised to disrupt society on an unprecedented level; now encroaching into traditionally “safe” jobs (law, banking, engineering).
• Major Concerns:
  • White-collar job bloodbath: massive layoffs, with best earners suddenly unemployed.
  • Mental health: AI companions preferred by 31% of teens; risk of increasing loneliness, suicide, and social detachment.
  • Deepfakes: Will blur the line between truth and fiction, eroding trust.
• Carey warns churches: Be ready for a congregation facing economic distress, mental health crises, and epistemological confusion.
• Hopeful Note:

  "As the world becomes more artificial, the church becomes more human. That's what we should do." (Carey, 49:08)

• Action: Double down on facilitating real, human connection; equip churches to pastor a “world fundamentally disrupted by AI”.
• Announcement: Book coming later in 2026, “AI in the Future: How to Lead in a World You’d Barely Recognize”.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Gen Z’s motivations (12:04):
  "They're not really seeking an echo of the culture, but an alternative to it."
• On audit for inclusivity (01:01):
  "Maybe it's time to audit your ministry and ask why? Because the gospel reaches into the hearts of all people."
• On preaching (29:45):
  "People are tired of showing up for church hoping to find God, but only finding us and our performance instead."
• On digital discipleship (31:01):
  "Most people today are discipled by algorithms more than they're discipled by their pastor or their local church."
• On echo chambers (34:21):
  "If everyone in your church agrees with you all the time, chances are you're discipling an echo chamber, not a true church."
• On the church’s unique opportunity (49:08):
  "As the world becomes more artificial, the church becomes more human. That's what we should do."

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|-------------| | Church Trends Overview / Revival Data | 03:25–09:26 | | #1: Gen Z Attendance Surge | 09:27–13:22 | | #2: Young Men Attending / Women Exiting | 13:25–20:29 | | #3: Direct Evangelism & Digital Influencers | 20:32–24:35 | | #4: Preaching as Encounter | 27:05–30:44 | | #5: Discipled by Algorithm | 30:49–36:49 | | #6: Senior Pastor Demographics | 37:06–41:56 | | #7: Preparing for AI Disruption | 43:41–50:01 |

Final Thoughts

Carey closes the episode stressing both the hope and urgency of 2026 for church leaders. The seeds of revival are evident, especially among young people, but massive challenges loom in leadership, discipleship, and cultural relevance amidst the AI revolution. His call: “[Let’s] work and pray toward a better gospel-soaked future together.”

Next Episodes: Deep dives with guests like David Kinnaman, Luke LeFever, Daniel McLeod, Ruslan KD, and John Mark Comer.

Action for Listeners: Download the full leader guide at 2026ChurchTrends.com.

This summary captures the core content, ideas, tone, and direct quotes of “CNLP 777 | 2026 Disruptive Church Trends.” For church leaders seeking clarity and hope, Carey urges a fresh, strategic, and deeply human approach to ministry in a time of remarkable change.