The CGD Podcast: "A Wish List for 2016 – Nancy Birdsall"

Date: January 12, 2016
Host: Rajesh Merchandani, Center for Global Development
Guest: Nancy Birdsall, President of the Center for Global Development

Overview

This episode centers on Nancy Birdsall’s wish list for international development in 2016. Birdsall and Merchandani reflect on key developments in 2015 and lay out priorities and hopes for smarter, fairer global policies in the new year. The discussion draws on Birdsall’s expertise and CGD’s research, tackling reforms in international institutions, climate policy, inequality, education financing, transparency, and the shifting global order.

Highlights and Key Discussion Points

Reflections on 2015’s Milestones

• IMF Quota Reform Passes US Congress

  • Long-awaited approval helps stabilize the global financial system, which Birdsall calls indispensable for development prosperity.
  • Quote: “We can't have development if we have instability in the financial system. We learned that in 2008, 9…” (Birdsall, 01:27)

• Paris Climate Conference & Clean Energy R&D

  • Paris seen as a breakthrough for international climate consensus, though Birdsall notes it was "not ideal but...a big step forward." (02:01)
  • Bill Gates’ $2 billion investment in clean energy R&D praised as visionary philanthropy.
  • Steps taken to reduce fuel subsidies in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, which Birdsall calls “a move towards fairness and climate benefit.”
  • Progress in reducing deforestation credited to rich countries funding preservation in forested nations.

• Launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

  • Recognized as major new source of development finance, highlighting China’s growing leadership.
  • Better leveraging of resources at the Asian Development Bank through merged balance sheets.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDGs celebrated for their broad, universal scope and emphasis on sustainability (environmental and political).
• Birdsall expresses concern about the sheer number of targets (17 goals, 169 targets) and the challenge of measurement and accountability.
• Major wishes for improvement:
  1. Migration: More attention and better metrics for migration’s role in development, citing Michael Clemens’ work and the CGD’s Commitment to Development Index.
     • Quote: “If we don't manage as a world what migration there is better, we are leaving on the sidewalk trillions of dollars in GDP and welfare.” (Birdsall, 07:56)
  2. Inequality: Calls for more concrete measurement using median incomes, noting current approaches are “a little mushy.”
     • Quote: “There's no absolute right amount of equality that economists can endorse, obviously complicated issue.” (Birdsall, 08:50)
     • She notes her “obsession about the median” as a better metric than average GDP per capita. (09:43)

Climate Change: Looking Ahead to 2016

• Hopeful for new and scaled-up carbon pricing mechanisms:
  • California’s Cap and Trade System: Hopes for international cooperation, e.g. with Brazil’s Acre state, to monetize environmental preservation. (09:58)
  • US National Policies: Anticipates Obama administration’s new emissions caps for power plants will drive further cap and trade efforts.
  • China’s Nationwide Cap and Trade Plan: Expected to be fully detailed in 2016 for a 2017 launch.

Education Financing and Outcome-Based Aid

• Gordon Brown’s commission on education finance lauded; Birdsall wishes for a major focus on “outcome based aid.”
• Emphasizes funding must shift from mere enrollment ("butts in seats") to real learning–addressing the "learning crisis" highlighted by CGD fellows such as Lant Pritchett.
  • Quote: “Not just enrollment, but actually are children learning more?” (Birdsall, 13:12)

Transparency and Anti-Corruption

• Highlights CGD’s research on tax transparency (Owen Barder), beneficiary ownership (corporate tax avoidance), and open contracting (Charles Kenny).
• Publishing government contracts, for example, can make aid more effective and reduce corruption.
  • Quote: “If Malawi had access to what it cost to build a bridge from prior contracts...it can better assess which proposal makes the most sense...not only more efficient, but exactly less corrupt.” (Birdsall, 16:28)

The Shifting Global Order and U.S. Role

• Birdsall reflects on 15 years since CGD’s founding, observing that the US has shifted from "hyper power" to "superpower," stressing the US must lead "by influence and persuasion" rather than as a "benign bully." (17:12)
• She hopes the US upholds its leadership in development, especially humanitarian aid and support for migration.
  • Quote: “...the US still matters immensely… but we need the US at the helm in a way that brings along five. The US can't be...a benign bully anymore. It has to be leading by influence and persuasion.” (Birdsall, 17:12)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's a bit like Groundhog Day, exactly.” — Birdsall reflects on the annual hope for IMF reforms finally fulfilled. (01:27)
• “The paradigmatic underfunded global public bad is the climate problem. So bravo to Bill Gates.” (02:01)
• “There's going to be more emphasis on good measurement, more emphasis on learning, as opposed to just butts in seats.” (Birdsall, 13:12)
• “You're our benign bully. It's okay.” — Host Rajesh Merchandani jokes affectionately with Birdsall during her U.S. analysis. (20:03)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 2015 Year in Review: IMF, Climate, Deforestation, AIIB — 01:05–05:40
• SDGs, Migration, and Inequality Wishes — 05:48–09:41
• Climate Policy and Carbon Pricing Hopes — 09:58–12:07
• Education: Outcome-Based Aid and the Learning Crisis — 12:26–14:30
• Transparency, Open Contracts, and Tax Justice — 14:35–16:34
• 15 Years of CGD & U.S. Global Leadership — 17:12–20:03

Tone and Style

The conversation is candid, insightful, and lightly humorous. Birdsall brings rigorous analysis alongside personal “obsessions” (median income, outcome-based aid), and Merchandani keeps the discussion accessible and lively, frequently referencing CGD’s research community.

Summary

Nancy Birdsall’s 2016 wish list covers critical, actionable steps for advancing global development: from deepening reforms at international financial institutions to embracing real accountability in the SDGs, pioneering outcome-focused education funding, scaling up climate solutions, enhancing transparency, and preserving the positive role of U.S. leadership in a changing world order. Listeners leave with a sense of optimism, practical priorities, and a celebratory nod to CGD’s 15 years of impact.