Podcast Summary: Africa’s Data Revolution – Amanda Glassman

Podcast: The CGD Podcast (Global Prosperity Wonkcast)
Host: Lawrence MacDonald, Center for Global Development
Guest: Amanda Glassman, Director of Global Health Policy at CGD
Date: July 8, 2014
Episode Focus: The urgent need to improve the quality, availability, and use of statistical data in Sub-Saharan Africa, drawing on insights from the upcoming "Delivering on the Data Revolution" report co-produced by CGD and the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC).

Episode Overview

This episode explores the state of data in Sub-Saharan Africa, why data matters for policy and development, and how both African governments and international donors are implicated in persistent weaknesses. Amanda Glassman discusses the high-profile GDP rebasing cases in Nigeria and Ghana, problems and incentives in current data collection, and presents a "data compact" as a way forward for the continent’s “data revolution.” The discussion ties into the global post-2015 development agenda and offers recommendations for both domestic and international stakeholders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why African Data Matters

• Data as a tool for accountability: Data informs policymakers, citizens, and donors about national priorities, policy effectiveness, and the impact of aid.
  • Amanda Glassman: “Data is the basic currency … of both government's accountability to its citizens and … between donor governments and recipient governments.” [00:44]

2. Problems in African Statistical Systems

• Stagnant progress: Statistical capacity, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, has barely improved over the past decade.
• Neglect of basics: While household surveys have advanced, foundational data (births, deaths, growth, poverty, tax, trade) are neglected.
  • Glassman: “…we've forgotten about the basics. Births and deaths, growth and poverty, tax and trade. These are the basic building blocks of any kind of economic or social indicator … and yet we've forgotten about them.” [01:29]

3. Dramatic Data Revisions: Nigeria and Ghana’s GDP

• Nigeria: Rebasing GDP led to a 75% increase in the country’s estimated economy size.
  • Host: “…they decided that their economy was more than 3/4 bigger than they had thought...” [02:13]
  • Glassman: “That just shows you how important it is to have better data on which to base your estimates of growth.” [02:39]
• Ghana: Also saw a 60% jump after rebasing. Many countries are now realizing the need to reassess their data.

4. Who is Responsible for Weak Data?

• Collective responsibility: “Collective guilt” shared by international donors and African governments.
  • Donors fund most statistical activities, with priorities often dictating focus (usually on household surveys, not administrative data).
  • National governments underfund and undervalue statistical systems.
  • Glassman: “It just can't be described as a priority. So it's definitely a shared agenda.” [04:44]

5. Problems with International Donor Incentives

• Preference for household surveys: Donors favor household surveys, which are easier and less reliant on state bureaucracy.
  • Glassman: “They're not easy to do, but they are relatively easy to do...You don't depend on the bureaucracy…” [05:47]
• Results-based aid challenges: Financial incentives may encourage data manipulation unless independent, robust systems exist.
  • Glassman: “…budget incentives for misreporting … between the donor and recipient, let's call them misaligned incentives.” [07:16]

6. African Success Stories and Variations

• Notable examples: Rwanda and South Africa (particularly “Stats South Africa”) are highlighted for stronger systems, but many challenges remain continent-wide.
  • Glassman: “Stats South Africa has ... placed staff ... in line ministries to help them build better, more accurate data systems...” [07:46]
• Francophone vs. Anglophone differences: Tradition of independent statistical organizations among Francophone countries noted as a possible reason for better data.

7. Political Will and Leadership

• Need for presidential leadership: Improvement hinges on top-level political demand.
  • Glassman: “We haven't seen presidents take leadership in this area … I hope to see in this next stage, presidents stepping up to the plate...” [09:05]

Memorable Quotes

• Amanda Glassman on Data’s Role:
  “Data tells us what's going on. … It tells policymakers what are priorities. … It tells donors whether their money is making any difference.” [00:44]

• On Donor Incentives:
  "If you incentivize the production of certain kinds of data, well, you get certain kinds of data." [07:13]

• On Big Data Hopes:
  "Certainly both big data and new technologies are really exciting … but if we don't have a national statistical system in place that allows us to just produce the basics, we'll be missing the opportunity..." [10:56]

• On the Post-2015 Agenda:
  “How can we have these [development goals] discussions in the absence of understanding really what kind of data is and what quality that data is? … If we don't focus on this as part of the post2015 process … we're missing the boat.” [16:04]

Recommendations & The Way Forward

1. The “Data Compact” Proposal [11:54]

• Key mechanism: Formal agreements between countries (led by president or finance minister) and donors to prioritize and resource foundational data collection.
  • Focus: Improvement in accuracy, timeliness, and openness.
  • High-level political commitment + mobilization of resources (both domestic and external) + phased implementation tracked independently.
  • Glassman: “It would allow for a big high-level political commitment. It would require greater resource mobilization from both donors and governments and then some independent tracking...” [11:54]
• Pay-for-performance: Compacts could work like pay-for-performance contracts, tying donor support to actual improvements in basic data systems.

2. Donor Behavior Changes [13:03]

• Invest in basics: Donors to maintain current surveys but guarantee foundational data is also properly funded, with support contingent on measurable progress.

3. Implementation Pathways [14:06]

• Country-led planning: Governments articulate priorities (possibly via national statistics development strategies) and engage a coalition of existing key statistics donors.
• Initial candidates: Kenya, Nigeria, Liberia—countries already showing moves or with strong donor involvement.

Important Segments and Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 00:44 | Why data in Africa matters for policy and accountability | | 01:12 | Statistical capacity challenges and the basics being forgotten | | 02:12 | GDP rebasing in Nigeria as illustration of poor data | | 04:01 | Collective responsibility: donors and African governments | | 07:13 | Problems with results-based aid and misaligned incentives | | 07:46 | Country examples: South Africa, Rwanda, Francophone vs. Anglophone countries | | 09:05 | Need for presidential leadership on data policy | | 10:56 | Big data and why innovations won’t solve the basics without system strengthening | | 11:54 | Main report recommendation: country/donor “data compacts” | | 13:03 | Donor behavior changes and pay-for-performance | | 14:06 | How a data compact might work in practice | | 16:04 | Data’s role in post-2015 development agenda; push for global commitment |

Final Takeaways

• Improving Africa’s data is fundamental for development outcomes and accountability both domestically and with donors.
• Progress is stymied by collective neglect from both donors (who set perverse incentives) and African governments (who underinvest).
• High-profile cases (like Nigeria’s GDP rebasing) highlight the costs of weak data.
• Real change requires political leadership, a renewed focus on basic statistics, and institutionalized cooperation between governments and donors—embodied in “data compacts.”
• The conversation is central to the post-2015 development agenda, and both glassman and CGD intend to keep pushing the issue globally.

For full details, listen to the episode or access the forthcoming report by CGD and APHRC.