The CGD Podcast – Can Deliberative Democracy Cure the Resource Curse?

Guest: Justin Sandefur (CGD Researcher)
Host: Rajesh Merchandani
Release Date: September 9, 2015
Podcast: Center for Global Development

Episode Overview

This episode gives an in-depth update on a pioneering research project in Tanzania, run by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and partners, exploring whether incorporating ordinary Tanzanians' perspectives through deliberative polling can help overcome the "resource curse" — a common phenomenon where countries rich in natural resources often experience poor governance and underdevelopment. Justin Sandefur, CGD researcher, walks us through the methodology, key findings, and broader significance for development policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Background & Purpose

• Tanzania's Natural Gas Discovery:

  • Recent natural gas finds in Tanzania have the potential to dramatically increase government revenues, equivalent to the average Tanzanian household's annual income (01:02).
  • Main question: What should Tanzania do with this newfound wealth?
    "Should the gas be extracted at all? Should it be left in the ground? Should it be sold internationally?...Who should be in charge of these decisions?" – Justin Sandefur [01:25]

• Initial National Poll:

  • Conducted a nationally representative poll with 2,000 Tanzanian respondents across rural and urban areas (most rural, reflective of national demographics) (01:02–02:07).
  • Questions ranged from extraction and selling to social spending priorities.

The Deliberative Polling Process

• Why Deliberative Democracy?

  • Recognizing most Tanzanians were initially uninformed about the gas discovery, researchers wanted to go beyond a simple poll:
    "...a lot of Tanzanians don't know anything about the natural gas...So we wanted to...educate people and give people a chance to process this information, think and talk and debate..." – Sandefur [02:23]

• How It Worked:

  • Inspired by Jim Fishkin's concept, deliberative polling involves:
    • (1) Initial poll
    • (2) In-depth information and group deliberation
    • (3) Re-polling after deliberation (03:01)
  • 400 randomly chosen participants (from the 2,000 polled) were brought together in Dar es Salaam for a two-day event featuring briefings, moderated debates, and small group discussions.
    "A huge logistical chaotic effort...brought them in buses...for a two day extravaganza of debating natural gas policy." – Sandefur [03:35]

• Atmosphere:

  • Inclusive, with broad age and gender representation:
    "A representative cross section of the country from young women nursing as they talked to old men...all speaking up and taking part..." – Sandefur [04:46]

Key Findings from the Polling

• General Attitudes Toward Gas Wealth

  • Overwhelmingly, the public supports:
    • Extracting and selling the gas resources
    • Investing proceeds into immediate social spending (health, education)
    • High priority placed on transparency and government oversight (05:12–05:51)
  • Skepticism toward the idea of saving the money for future generations or creating a sovereign wealth fund.
    "When you ask people point blank, should the money be spent now or saved for the future, people lean towards spend it now." – Sandefur [06:43]

• Direct Cash Transfers vs. Government Spending:

  • Strong enthusiasm in principle for direct cash transfers (similar to Alaska oil dividends), especially for the poor.
  • However, given a choice, a small majority prefers government programs over individual transfers (07:11–08:21).
    "A narrow majority is going to choose spending on government programs. And...those 400 people who came to Dar...moved more in the direction of...spending this money on government programs." – Sandefur [07:51]

• Impact of Deliberation:

  • Deliberation led to slightly more "prudential" preferences on some issues:
    • Greater support for commercialization, transparency, and independent oversight
    • Less support for subsidies or quick consumption
    • No significant movement towards long-term saving or infrastructure investment (08:29–09:23)
  • Still, even after deliberation, most participants preferred immediate social service spending.

Broader Reflections and Research Implications

• Capacity for Civic Engagement:
  • The process dispels doubts about low-income, less-educated populations participating meaningfully in complex policy debates:
    "It was encouraging...to see even in such a low income, low literacy environment, people able to wrestle with kinds of complex questions..." – Sandefur [10:19]
  • Critique of technocratic skepticism: "...if you ask many economists, they would say...that's something that needs to be...under technocratic control and we need to insulate this from too much political interference. I think that's sort of short sighted." – Sandefur [10:56]

Policymaker Engagement & Next Steps

• Taking Results to Tanzanian Policy-Makers:

  • Many policymakers were initially skeptical of the public's capacity to understand gas policy.
  • Upcoming workshop will present both citizen and policymaker perspectives side by side:
    "Here's what ordinary Tanzanians think, here's what sort of policy elites think...when people get more educated and deliberate, do they move in the direction of their policymakers or in a different direction?" – Sandefur [12:26]

• Political Context:

  • The study occurs against the backdrop of a looming, closely contested national election, increasing the stakes for natural gas policy decisions (13:02).

• Inclusive Debate:

  • The project includes both government and opposition, facilitated by CGD and the Dar-based think tank Repoa.

Lessons for Development

• Resource Wealth in Developing Democracies:

  • The case shifts the development paradigm away from external aid toward effective domestic resource management:
    "...many poor countries are now sitting on huge stocks of wealth...It becomes really less about aid flows...and more a question about how is Tanzania as a democracy going to govern these new resources?" – Sandefur [15:00]

• Regional Relevance:

  • Neighboring countries like Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique, and Ghana face similar challenges, making Tanzania's experiment widely instructive (15:36).

Memorable Quotes

• On the promise of deliberative democracy:
  "Deliberation and receiving all this information moved people somewhat closer in line with the economists..." – Sandefur [08:29]

• On the public’s engagement:
  "It was really nice to see people really processing the issues, really forming opinions." – Sandefur [04:38]

• On skepticism from policymakers:
  "Many Tanzanian policymakers...were a bit skeptical when we said we're going to go ask ordinary Tanzanians what they think... So we've gone and done that..." – Sandefur [11:28]

• On development’s changing landscape:
  "We're in a situation where many poor countries are now sitting on huge stocks of wealth. There’s huge finance available within Tanzania now to potentially finance development." – Sandefur [15:00]

Topical Timestamps

• Recap of natural gas discovery & initial survey: [01:02–02:07]
• The need for deliberation, not just polling: [02:07–03:01]
• Explanation of deliberative polling method & the Dar es Salaam event: [03:01–04:59]
• Key results: public preferences and transparency: [05:12–06:43]
• Cash transfers vs. government spending; effect of deliberation: [07:11–08:21]
• How public opinion shifted and its limits: [08:29–09:23]
• Reflections on civic engagement and technocracy: [09:46–11:17]
• Presenting findings to policymakers; next steps: [11:17–13:02]
• Development implications; relevance to other countries: [14:17–15:46]

Conclusion

This episode offers a unique look into how deliberative democracy tools can be harnessed to address the governance challenges of new resource wealth, as demonstrated in Tanzania's response to the "resource curse." The research reveals both the promise and the pragmatic limitations of public engagement: citizens meaningfully process complex policy when empowered, but certain immediate priorities (like social spending) endure. The work highlights a shift in development thinking—emphasizing internal, democratic resource management over conventional aid. The Tanzanian experience, as revealed in this podcast, stands as an instructive case for many resource-rich developing nations.