The CGD Podcast: “Deforestation by the Numbers – Jonah Busch and Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon”

Date: June 2, 2014
Host: Lawrence MacDonald (Center for Global Development)
Guests: Jonah Busch & Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon

Episode Overview

This episode explores the drivers of tropical deforestation and what interventions are most effective in stopping it, based on a comprehensive meta-analysis conducted by Jonah Busch and Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon. Drawing from 117 econometric studies covering two-thirds of the world’s tropical forests over several decades, the conversation delves into the evidence behind common beliefs regarding deforestation and highlights actionable insights for policymakers, especially in the context of international climate and development efforts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Should Development Policy Focus on Forests?

• Forests & Global Development: Forests are a frontline issue not only for environmentalists but also for international development, as changes in forest cover directly impact communities in poorer countries.
  • Jonah Busch: “Most of the emissions, the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming are coming from industry in rich countries... 10 to 15% of global warming is caused by emissions from tropical deforestation.” [01:28]
• Livelihoods & Forests: Many local communities rely on forests for food, medicine, and stable environments.
  • Jonah Busch: “Around 20% of all income in communities in remote rural areas near forests is coming from forests.” [03:55]

2. The Meta-Analysis: Scope & Methodology

• Scale: The study synthesizes 117 “spatially explicit econometric studies” from 36 countries, covering two-thirds of the world’s tropical forests and several decades since 1996. [08:22–09:03]
• How It Works: The studies examine land parcels using satellite data, correlating deforestation with various drivers, like population growth or proximity to roads.
  • Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon: “Spatially explicit econometric study means... regression analysis where they input drivers of deforestation... the deforestation itself was gathered through remote sensing.” [06:31]
• Variable Definitions: A challenge was standardizing various ways researchers describe similar factors (e.g., ‘land tenure’ vs. ‘land rights’). [09:59]

3. What Drives Deforestation?

• Conventional Wisdom Confirmed: Some results validated what was already believed:
  • Infrastructure (roads) is a major driver: “Roads cause deforestation.” [12:21]
  • Geography matters: “Steep slopes are slower to get deforested. Wet places are slower to get deforested.” [12:46]
• Quantified Impact: The study’s contribution is in putting numbers behind these effects.
  • Jonah Busch: “For every one time that a park shows up as with higher deforestation, there’s six times where it shows up with lower deforestation.” [12:57]
  • Translation: Protected areas are six times more likely to reduce deforestation than to see increased forest loss.

4. Surprises and Nuanced Findings

• Community Forest Management: Not as clear-cut as hoped.
  • Jonah Busch: “I was expecting... that community forest management lined up more with less deforestation... but it wasn’t a statistically significant difference.” [13:53–14:30]
  • Popular, politically appealing interventions like community control or clarified property rights did NOT consistently reduce deforestation.
    • Jonah Busch: “It may be good for development, but... just as many other places where there was more deforestation.” [15:23]

5. What Works to Prevent Deforestation?

• Effective Policies:
  • Limiting Roads in Remote Areas: Careful planning of road networks to avoid opening new forest frontiers slows deforestation. [16:06]
  • Targeted Protected Areas: Placing protected areas at forest frontiers, rather than only in remote or scenic areas, makes them more impactful.
    • Jonah Busch: “If the goal is to slow deforestation... place [protected areas] that’s threatened.” [17:03]
  • Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES): Financial incentives given to communities to keep forests standing consistently lead to less deforestation.
    • Jonah Busch: “These sorts of payments appear to be associated with... keeping the forest standing.” [18:10]
    • Lawrence MacDonald: “Payment for ecological services... is the big finding, that that does work pretty well... because I think the jury’s been out on that.” [19:16]
  • Note: While PES had the most promising results, only four studies have evaluated them, so more research is needed. [19:54]

6. Research Gaps & Future Directions

• Calls for more quasi-experimental and controlled studies, especially for interventions like PES and law enforcement, and in under-researched regions (Africa, Eastern Europe). [21:02]
  • Jonah Busch: “We find a lot of studies on infrastructure. We find relatively few on law enforcement [or] gender.” [20:28]
• Natural Experiments: Suggested as a way to study real-world effects when randomized control trials aren’t practical (e.g., where policy rollouts occur unevenly across regions). [22:30]

7. From Local to Global: Policy Implications

• Linking International Payments (REDD+) to Proven Approaches:
  • International schemes like REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) can fund effective, evidence-based interventions at local levels, be it protected areas, PES, or indigenous land rights.
    • Jonah Busch: “It’s up to the forest countries to figure out what works best in their context to achieve reduced deforestation.” [24:55]
• Cost-effectiveness:
  • Preventing deforestation is one of the cheapest and most urgent ways to address climate change, needing no new technology.
    • Jonah Busch: “Trees have been capturing and storing carbon from the atmosphere for millions of years... We just need to allow them to keep growing.” [27:36]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Double-Edged Sword of GDP:
  • Jonah Busch [05:05]:
    “Gross domestic product is like palm oil. It’s in absolutely everything... it captures a country’s income, but it doesn’t capture the losses... on a macroeconomic level, that’s exactly what countries do.”
• On Protected Areas:
  • Jonah Busch [12:57]:
    “For every one time that a park shows up as with higher deforestation, there’s six times where it shows up with lower deforestation.”
• On Community Forest Management:
  • Jonah Busch [14:30]:
    “It wasn’t a statistically significant difference. So it fell in our category of drivers... that we really couldn’t say consistently one way or the other accelerated or slowed deforestation.”
• On Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES):
  • Jonah Busch [18:10]:
    “These sorts of payments appear to be associated with, in fact, keeping the forest standing.”
• On Linking International and Local Action:
  • Jonah Busch [24:55]:
    “Those countries could look at this study and they’d be able to say... we see that payment for ecosystem services works. We see... protected areas work. They can turn to these methods.”
• On Simplicity and Urgency:
  • Jonah Busch [27:36]:
    “We just need to allow [trees] to keep growing.”

Key Timestamps for Segments

• Why should development agencies focus on forests? – 01:28–04:52
• How the meta-analysis was conducted – 06:03–09:59
• Major drivers of deforestation and what’s been confirmed – 12:21–13:50
• Surprising findings about community forest management and land tenure – 13:53–15:53
• Most effective policies for forest conservation – 16:06–19:16
• Discussion on payments for ecosystem services (PES) – 18:10–20:21
• Research gaps and need for natural experiments – 21:02–22:30
• Role of international payments (REDD+ links) – 24:55–26:22
• Cost-effectiveness and urgency of forest protection – 26:41–27:47

Takeaways for Listeners

• Evidence-based policy matters: Roads and infrastructure, if unmanaged, reliably drive forest loss; meanwhile, strategic protected areas and incentive payments to communities are promising interventions.
• Not all ‘obvious’ solutions work everywhere: The effects of community management and property rights are mixed, challenging dominant policy assumptions.
• More rigorous research is crucial: Especially for new interventions like PES.
• Protecting forests is both a climate and development win: It’s cost-effective, urgent, and benefits local and global communities.

For deeper details, listeners are encouraged to check out the full working paper or the accessible brief prepared by the Center for Global Development.