Podcast Summary: The CGD Podcast – "Migration’s Inevitability and Labor Mobility"
Guest: Michael Clemens (Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development)
Host: Lawrence MacDonald
Date: May 22, 2014

Overview

In this episode, economist and economic historian Michael Clemens joins host Lawrence MacDonald to discuss Clemens' research on the relationship between economic development and international migration. Drawing from his latest paper, "Does Development Reduce Migration?", Clemens challenges the widespread belief that economic development in poor countries directly leads to less emigration. Instead, Clemens describes a nuanced, evidence-backed relationship where migration initially increases with development—only declining once a certain income threshold is reached. The discussion extends to practical policy implications, ethical labor mobility, and what smarter development strategies should look like in a world where migration is, for much of the process, inevitable.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Does Development Reduce Migration?

• Clemens' research shows that increased development in very poor countries typically raises migration rates until a middle-income threshold (~$6,000–$8,000 per capita GDP, PPP) is reached. After this point, further development leads to a decrease in emigration.

  • Quote:
    "Once you get to be a certain level, it seems that more development at home is associated, as we would think, with a lower propensity to leave a country that's developing. Not before that. Not when you are starting out at a very poor level. It seems to be just the opposite."
    — Michael Clemens (00:39)

• This inverted-U pattern (migration increases, then falls with development) is observed across numerous countries and historical contexts. Examples include Dominican Republic, Albania, Egypt, Algeria, El Salvador, and Taiwan.

• Tipping Point: Migration rates start to decline around $6,000–$8,000 per capita GDP at PPP. (01:14)

2. Why Does Migration Increase as Countries Develop?

• As country income rises from very low levels:
  • People have more resources to migrate (education, travel costs).
  • Connectivity improves (cell phones, internet), facilitating information and maintaining international networks.
  • Rising aspirations and awareness of foreign opportunities.
  • Quote:
    "You can afford education, which helps you get abroad. You can afford the plane ticket. You're more likely to have connections with people in other countries... It's a synergistic process."
    — Michael Clemens (02:34)

3. Misconceptions and Policy Pitfalls

• The idea that development aid will decrease migration in the short to medium term is a "red herring," especially for countries far below the income threshold (e.g. Haiti, Cambodia, Ghana).
  • Quote:
    "...for countries around the low level of development of Haiti... absolutely the biggest thing to expect with more development, there is more migration. Absolutely, not less."
    — Michael Clemens (04:28)
• Ethical and practical impossibility of "keeping countries poor" to stem migration (04:50).

4. Productive Policy Responses: Planning for Labor Mobility

• Aid and development strategies should anticipate and facilitate migration, not resist it.
• Policymakers should integrate labor mobility into development planning, rather than treat migration as a failure or threat.
• Practical areas include:
  • Portable skills and certifications
  • Portable pensions
  • Cheaper, more accessible remittance systems
  • Quote:
    "The lesson of history is exactly the opposite. The people who are planning for Haiti's future need to be planning for labor mobility."
    — Michael Clemens (06:21)

5. Reducing Remittance Costs & Facilitating Mobility

• Remittance fees remain high (up to 13% for sending money to Africa), despite widespread cell phone access and technology that should reduce costs (07:07).
• Global policy has begun addressing this, but much more remains to be done.

6. Portable Education and Training: Who Pays?

• Many skilled emigrants from poor countries finance their own education (not always through public funds).
  • Example: Most Filipino nurses pay out of pocket or via family loans (12:54).
• Alternative models:
  • Destination countries or companies can finance training (e.g., Australia Pacific Technical College).
  • Employers (e.g., shipping companies training Filipino crew).
  • Migration-contingent student loans or joint funding to avoid "fiscal brain drain."
  • Against restricting movement as an “ethical” solution; prefers creative financing to compensate countries of origin.
  • Quote:
    "...none of them involve actually forcing people to not realize their dreams and ambitions by moving to other countries. That unfortunately is what folks like Collier recommend."
    — Michael Clemens (10:52)

7. The ‘Mobility Transition’ and How Long It Takes

• The migration "peak" can take a century or more for the poorest countries to reach the income threshold for declining migration—especially with typical growth rates of ~2% per year.
  • Quote:
    "...if you want to get to this transition point of $7,900 a year, you're looking at over a century."
    — Michael Clemens (16:22)

8. Why Does Propensity to Migrate Decline After a Certain Point?

• Demographic transitions (youth bulges) temporarily boost migration pressure.
• Inequality may drive international comparisons and aspirations, influencing migration.
• Visa and border restrictions usually ease as countries become wealthier.
  • Quote:
    "There are also restrictions on the ability to leave that tend to fall away as you get richer."
    — Michael Clemens (19:03)

9. Implications for U.S. Migration Policy

• As Mexico's income rises beyond the migration "peak," U.S. migration pressure from Mexico falls (currently near zero net migration).
• Meanwhile, countries below the threshold (Honduras, Nicaragua, Jamaica, Haiti) will see increased migration pressure.
• The U.S. will continue to require lower-skill labor, suggesting policy should prepare for new migration flows from other countries, not just focus on high-skill migrants.
  • Quote:
    "Somebody's got to take care of their children, somebody cleans their offices...those people are going to be immigrants."
    — Michael Clemens (22:38)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Development as Migration Driver:
  "...for, for the time being, that is not the way it's going to go the way for policymakers on the development side to engage with migration is to know that if they are successfully fostering development in the poorest countries, they are going to be encouraging migration, and they need to plan for that." (05:15)

• On Policy Absence:
  "The World Bank has, for example, an $800 million portfolio for Haiti, not $1 of that...are associated in any way with fostering labor mobility. That's not part of the development plan." (06:11)

• Host’s Satirical Take:
  "The simple policy prescription then is let's keep Haiti poor." (03:31)

Key Timestamps

• [00:39] – Clemens: Higher development initially increases migration; decrease only at middle-income level.
• [01:14] – $6,000–$8,000 GDP per capita: estimated “tipping point.”
• [02:34] – Mechanisms: Education, travel affordability, connectivity.
• [04:28] – Myth-busting: Development in poor countries increases rather than decreases migration.
• [05:15] – Policy: Need to incorporate labor mobility in development plans.
• [06:33] – Steps to facilitate migration: Portable skills, pensions, remittances technology.
• [10:52] – Critique of migration restrictions as ‘ethical’.
• [12:54] – Filipinos and labor export: mostly self-financed education.
• [13:32] – Example: Australia Pacific Technical College.
• [16:22] – Timeframes: Over a century for poorest to reach migration “peak” at modest growth rates.
• [18:25] – Other explanations for the migration curve fall (demographics, inequality, visa policies).
• [21:21] – U.S. policy: Transition in source countries for migrants, ongoing need for low-skilled labor.

Conclusion

Michael Clemens powerfully illustrates that migration is a natural, predictable part of the development process. For most developing countries, development aid and improved living standards will increase migration pressure before it eventually abates—often on timescales much longer than most political cycles. Forward-thinking policy should embrace, facilitate, and plan for this human mobility, integrating labor mobility mechanisms and creative financing solutions. Restrictive policies that aim to stop migration are both unrealistic and unethical, as they ignore both the evidence and the aspirations of millions.

Clemens urges policymakers, especially in donor countries and agencies, to move beyond outdated assumptions and integrate migration into coherent, ethically responsible development strategies.