The Development Landscape in 2015 and Beyond – Nancy Birdsall

The CGD Podcast
Host: Rajesh Merchandani (Center for Global Development)
Guest: Nancy Birdsall (Founding President, CGD)
Date: January 27, 2015

Overview

In this first CGD Podcast of 2015, Rajesh Merchandani sits down with Nancy Birdsall to examine the critical issues, events, and prospects facing international development in 2015 and the years ahead. The conversation centers on inequality, shifting paradigms in global development, the evolving role of aid, and the significance of landmark events such as the Addis Ababa Financing for Development conference, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the Paris Climate Conference.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global Inequality and Its Acceleration

• Notable Statistic: Oxfam’s recent report highlights that “just 80 people in the world now own as much as the poorest 3.5 billion” and predicts that by 2016, the richest 1% will own more than half the world’s wealth. (01:00)
• Nancy’s Response:
  • Not surprised by the trends, especially after delving into Thomas Piketty’s work.
  • "I was a little surprised by the magnitude and speed of the shift at the global level. But… not surprised. There are serious questions about the way globalization works… not just for the poor… but for the larger rest, the middle class, the working class, the strugglers, and the very poor in the world." (01:33)

2. The Nature of Development: Incremental and Long-Term

• Nancy on Challenges in Development:
  • "It's a long term challenge. We can't necessarily expect big successes in one year like 2015. Development is about planting the seeds… of hoped for successes in the maybe one year, but also five years and even ten years and more." (02:52)

3. Major Development Milestones in 2015

• Upcoming Events:
  • Addis Ababa Financing for Development Conference (July)
  • UN General Assembly & SDGs adoption (September)
  • Paris Climate Conference (December)
• Nancy’s Perspective:
  • Less anticipation of “big announcements” typical of past conferences (like Monterrey in 2002), as the development landscape has shifted from a focus on aid transfers to collective action on systemic issues. (04:05)
  • "[We're] past that. We're now in a world of collective action on systemic issues." (05:04)

4. Reframing Development and Financing

• Key Hopes for Addis Ababa (06:38):

  • Reiteration of the $100B annual transfer commitment (from the Copenhagen climate agreements) to help finance development—including through private sector mechanisms.
  • Renewed focus on domestic resource mobilization, reflecting stronger growth and governance in developing countries.
  • Emphasis on IMF quota reform to better represent emerging economies and rebalance governance, especially in times of global crisis.
    • "I'm very keen to see… in Addis that there's some… reference to the need for the US Congress… to approve… quota reform at the IMF." (08:27)

• On IMF Reform:

  • “It’s not new money, but it's money that's better embedded in the heart of the IMF… involves some reasonable adjustments that signal to countries like Brazil, China, India that they have rights and… responsibilities in a world where international cooperation on issues like climate is so important.” (09:24, 09:52)
  • "It's not a world… anymore, of rich and poor. It's a world in which we're all in the same boat." (10:05)

5. The Sustainable Development Goals: Scope and Process

• On the Number of Goals (17) and Targets (169):
  • Nancy is accepting of the breadth, noting the "first eight or nine… reflect the spirit of the Millennium Development Goals," and the additional ones are "reasonably bold," notably because they bring in politically tough issues like inequality and climate. (11:46)
• Broader Consultative Process:
  • "In contrast to the MDGs, which could be seen as having come out of a kind of donor club conversation, the SDGs come out of extensive conversations around the world… So they reflect a broader level of engagement." (13:12)
  • "They're the sort of beginning of the 21st century where citizens matter." (13:37)
  • "Rather than top down, it's sort of bottom up." (13:50)

6. The Role of Fairness and Justice in the New Agenda

• On Inequality:
  • "It's a funny word. It doesn't capture really what people want. I think they want a sense of fairness and justice… There is not yet justice in the world and… people perceive something wrong with the system within countries and across countries." (15:25)
  • “We can't imagine adequate progress on the traditional goals… in a world where there's a political reaction against the idea of globalization… We need… some of the rules and conventions… at the global level. Call it a global polity.” (16:12)

7. Reasons for Optimism in 2015

• Specific Positive Developments:
  • More countries publishing contracts for public services (e.g., UK, Colombia, Slovakia, and pressure in Tanzania), signaling increased transparency and expectations for normal behavior due to globalization. (16:50)
  • Growth of development impact bonds, which introduce more outcomes-based funding and public-private collaboration.
  • Reduction of fuel subsidies in some countries (e.g., Indonesia), a move paralleling a carbon tax and positively impacting inequality and climate outcomes.
  • Anticipation of stronger focus on forests and financing for reduced deforestation at the Paris climate talks.
  • Ongoing global efforts in empowering women and promoting human rights. (16:50–19:09)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Magnitude of Inequality:
  "I was a little surprised by the magnitude and speed of the shift at the global level. But… not surprised." — Nancy Birdsall (01:33)

• Development Success Requires Patience:
  "Development is about planting the seeds… of hoped for successes in the maybe one year, but also five years and even ten years and more." — Nancy Birdsall (02:52)

• Shift from Aid to Systemic Issues:
  "We're not in a world anymore of the big thing being aid transfers… We're past that. We're now in a world of collective action on systemic issues." — Nancy Birdsall (05:04)

• On IMF Reform’s Symbolic and Practical Value:
  "It would have an impact on the way people in the financial community, as well as in the development finance community, think about the world… It's far more multipolar. It's not a world… of rich and poor. It's a world in which we're all in the same boat." — Nancy Birdsall (09:56–10:05)

• On the SDGs Consultation Process:
  "In contrast to the MDGs… the SDGs come out of extensive conversations around the world… They reflect a broader level of engagement." — Nancy Birdsall (13:12)

• On People’s True Desires:
  "It's a funny word. It doesn't capture really what people want. I think they want a sense of fairness and justice… The people often are right, and they're often ahead of the more academic or political international conversation." — Nancy Birdsall (15:25)

• Transparency as an Emerging Norm:
  “That's a kind of example where globalization is changing expectations about what is normal behavior. It's slow, but once that gets going, great.” — Nancy Birdsall (16:50)

Timestamps – Key Segments

• [00:46] – Framing current inequality and Piketty’s analysis
• [02:16] – The challenge of setting development goals for a single year
• [03:27] – Major events in 2015 (Addis Ababa, SDGs, Paris Climate Conference)
• [06:52] – Hopes for concrete outcomes at Addis and climate financing
• [09:24] – IMF quota reform and global financial governance
• [11:46] – The structure and ambition of the SDGs
• [13:12] – The consultative, bottom-up nature of the SDGs
• [15:25] – The deeper meaning behind the call for inequality reduction
• [16:50] – Optimism: trends in transparency, innovative funding, and climate action

Conclusion

Nancy Birdsall provides a nuanced, cautiously optimistic vision of the development landscape in 2015, marked by growing global consciousness around inequality, the need for more inclusive consultation and cooperation, and gradual yet meaningful shifts in transparency, financial governance, and climate action. While warning against expecting dramatic one-year wins, she highlights the structural changes and new norms that bode well for long-term progress.

For more insights from Nancy Birdsall, read her 2015 wishlist blog at www.cgdev.org.