The Future of Forests – with Jonah Busch

Summary

The CGD Podcast

Episode: The Future of Forests – with Jonah Busch

Date: August 25, 2015
Host: Rajesh Merchandani, Center for Global Development
Guest: Jonah Busch, Research Fellow
Main Theme:
This episode delves into the dire future impacts of unchecked tropical deforestation, the monumental consequences for global climate and development, and the practical, affordable solutions that can change this trajectory. Drawing from a new research paper co-authored by Jonah Busch, the discussion highlights stark projections, the revolution in deforestation monitoring, economic realities, policy success stories, and the pivotal role of rich countries in climate action.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stark Projections from New Research

• Extent of Deforestation by 2050:

  • “If the world does nothing about tropical deforestation, we can expect an area of tropical forest the size of India to be cleared by 2050. That's 2.9 million square kilometers. That's 1/3 the size of the U.S., all the land east of the Mississippi River plus Texas thrown in for good.” – Jonah Busch [01:13]

• Enormous Carbon Emissions:

  • “It's 169 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is like running 44,000 American coal fired power plants for a year. It's one sixth of our total planetary carbon budget.” – Jonah Busch [01:42]

• Definition of 'Carbon Budget':

  • “Carbon budget is the amount of carbon that scientists say we have left to emit in order to keep global temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius and stop dangerous climate change.” – Rajesh Merchandani [01:58]
  • “Just tropical deforestation. One sixth of that carbon budget.” – Jonah Busch [02:14]

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2. Technological Revolution in Deforestation Monitoring

• From Self-Reporting to Satellite Data:

  • “I almost can't overstate how revolutionary this was when this data was produced in 2013 by Matt Hansen and his collaborators... Now there's satellites, and you can really track deforestation as it happens year on year, right where it's happening.” – Jonah Busch [02:23–03:38]

• Past Data Limitations:

  • “Every country would submit... one number for how much forest they said they'd lost in the last five years, self reporting... you can imagine what a mess that was for previous researchers.” – Jonah Busch [02:54]

• New Trends Uncovered:

  • “Deforestation doesn't just plod along the same amount every year... in fact, it rises very steeply at first, then it plateaus, and eventually falls.” – Jonah Busch [03:59]

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3. Future Trends in Deforestation Rates

• Accelerating Deforestation in Untouched Areas:

  • “In places, in remote places with a lot of forest left, we expect the deforestation, once it arrives there, can shoot up very rapidly. Places like the interior of the Amazon and the heart of the Congo Basin.” – Jonah Busch [04:28]

• Overall Trajectory:

  • “We project that deforestation rates will increase over time, rising gradually through the 2020s and 2030s before accelerating in the 2040s if we do nothing about it.” – Jonah Busch [04:49]

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4. Development Impacts of Deforestation

• Burden on the Poor:

  • “Climate change affects everyone on this planet, but it affects poor people the most through more expensive food, through bigger storms. Most of the costs of climate change fall on the backs of poor people.” – Jonah Busch [05:09]

• Local Environmental Benefits of Forests:

  • “By protecting forests, there's a lot of benefits for people who live downwind or downstream... Forests keep water clean, they prevent droughts, they help agriculture.” – Jonah Busch [05:42]

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5. Solutions: Policy and Carbon Pricing

a. Policy Example: Brazil

• Unprecedented Success:

  • “Brazil has done something remarkable... They've done more to reduce climate changing emissions than any other country... They've cut [Amazon deforestation] from its peak by about 80% in one decade.” – Jonah Busch [06:12]

• Methods Used:

  • “Law enforcement, backed by satellite monitoring, new protected areas, moratoriums on producing beef and soy in a way that clears forests, credit restrictions...” – Jonah Busch [06:44]

b. Economic Incentives & Carbon Pricing

• Making Forests Worth More Alive than Dead:

  • “The crux, we think, as environmental economists to arresting the problem... is by making forests worth more alive than dead.” – Jonah Busch [07:47]

• Carbon Prices and Impact:

  • “We found that a $20 per ton of carbon dioxide price on carbon emissions would reduce the global emissions... by about 1/4. $50 per ton price by 2050 would cut those emissions by half.” – Jonah Busch [08:50]

• Cost Comparisons:

  • “If it costs you $100 in the EU [to reduce emissions], it costs you $20 in the tropics.” – Jonah Busch [10:48]

• Not a Policy-Maker Scare:

  • “Reducing tropical deforestation is a bargain when it comes to stopping climate change.” – Jonah Busch [11:02]

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6. Role of Wealthy Countries

• Beyond Own Emissions:

  • “Rich countries should absolutely be switching to renewable energy... But they should also... be sponsoring reducing deforestation in the tropics, providing financial incentives...” – Jonah Busch [11:12]

• Linking Carbon Markets:

  • “They can do that with payments, with funds, or they can do that with carbon markets, linking carbon markets in Europe or in California to tropical countries.” – Jonah Busch [11:38]

• Development Synergies:

  • “We want to fight climate change, but we want to do it cheaply.” – Jonah Busch [12:31]

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7. Key Policy Recommendations for Paris 2015

• Forests Must Be Central to Solutions:

  • “Forests should be a much bigger part of the climate solution in 2015... there's a worry that forests might fall through the cracks.” – Jonah Busch [12:56]

• More Rich-Poor Country Partnerships:

  • “We'd like to see more partnerships where a rich country like the USA says to a poor country with a lot of forests like Liberia, we will help you achieve many more emission reductions. And in return, here's money to do it.” – Jonah Busch [13:33]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “That's 169 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is like running 44,000 American coal fired power plants for a year.” – Jonah Busch [01:42]
• “We want to fight climate change, but we want to do it cheaply.” – Jonah Busch [12:31]
• “Reducing tropical deforestation is a bargain when it comes to stopping climate change.” – Jonah Busch [11:02]
• “I almost can't overstate how revolutionary this was when this data was produced in 2013...” – Jonah Busch [02:23]
• “Brazil has done something remarkable in the past decade. They've done more to reduce climate changing emissions than any other country on the planet.” – Jonah Busch [06:12]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:06 – Introduction & episode context
• 01:13 – Deforestation projections and carbon budget
• 02:23 – Role of satellite data, breakthrough in monitoring
• 03:59 – Deforestation dynamics (rising-plateau-fall)
• 04:28 – Deforestation trends to 2050
• 05:09 – Development and poverty implications
• 06:12 – Brazil as a policy model
• 07:28 – Economic incentives & carbon pricing
• 08:50 – Impact of carbon price levels
• 10:48 – Cost comparison: tropics vs. developed world
• 11:12 – Role of rich countries
• 12:56 – Policy directions for climate summits
• 13:33 – Call for partnerships between rich and forest-rich countries

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Summary Table

| Segment | Key Points | Timestamp | |--------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Introduction | Set global context; highlight size of problem | 00:06-01:13| | Research Findings | Scope of deforestation, carbon impact | 01:13-02:14| | Data Revolution | Power of satellite data, detail on trends | 02:23-03:59| | Future Projections | Acceleration in untouched regions | 04:28-05:03| | Development Impacts | Effects on poor, benefits of forests | 05:09-05:55| | Brazil's Success | Policy actions, enforcement, impact | 06:12-07:11| | Carbon Pricing | Incentives, numbers, cost effectiveness | 07:28-11:06| | Role of Wealthy Nations | Responsibility, carbon markets, funding | 11:12-12:45| | Paris 2015 Recommendations | Forests in policy, north-south partnerships | 12:56-13:48|

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Conclusion

This episode underscores that unchecked tropical deforestation would have catastrophic effects on the climate, hitting the poorest the hardest. However, with robust policies, economic incentives, and international cooperation—especially through affordable carbon pricing and targeting forest preservation—major progress is not only possible, but comparatively inexpensive. As the world readied for the Paris Climate Conference, Busch’s research offers both a warning and a roadmap: forests must be at the heart of global climate solutions, and the cheapest way to curb warming is to stop cutting them down.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

Hello, I'm Rajesh Merchandani. Thanks for joining me for the CGD podcast. Now, we all know that 2015 is a very big year for development and climate. There's the SDG summit and then there's the Paris Climate Conference in December. Well, we're going to share with you some figures today that have stark implications for both of those. They're the findings of a new paper and they suggest that if tropical deforestation continues unchecked, then by 2050, an area the size of India will have been cleared. That's one third the size of the entire United States. And you can just imagine the amount of carbon dioxide that will be pumped into the atmosphere as a result of that and the effect on our climate. That's the bad news. There is a little bit of good news. The same paper also talks about practical and affordable solutions that could prevent this from happening. The paper was written by research fellow Jonah Busch and by Jens Engelmann. And Jonah, I'm very glad to say, joins me now. Nice to see you, Jonah.

[A]

Great to be with you, Rajesh.

[B]

Now, let's start with the numbers in the paper. Just take us through what it is that you found.

[A]

So we found that if the world does nothing about tropical deforestation, we can expect an area of tropical forest the size of India to be cleared by 2050. That's 2.9 million square kilometers. That's 1/3 the size of the U.S. all the land east of the Mississippi river plus Texas thrown in for good.

[B]

Measure, and presumably the amount of carbon dioxide that would be emitted as a result of that Deforestation is also scarily huge.

[A]

It's enormous. It's 169 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is like running 44,000American coal fired power plants for a year. It's one sixth of our total planetary carbon budget.

[B]

And the carbon budget is an amount of carbon that scientists say we have left to emit in order to keep global Temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius and stop dangerous climate change.

[A]

That's right.

[B]

And we will get through a sixth of this through tropical deforestation alone.

[A]

Just tropical deforestation. One sixth of that carbon budget.

[B]

What did you think when your numbers came up like this? What was your reaction?

[A]

Well, I knew that there were a lot of emissions from tropical deforestation, but I didn't know it was going to be this big. And that was because we for the first time had the privilege of looking through very high quality, very high resolution satellite data on how tropical deforestation has advanced and proceeded in the Last decade, data that NASA has produced from its satellites, that scientists at the University of Maryland have pored over with algorithms using Google, using huge amounts of technology to look at forests the size of a baseball diamond. And it's. This is just. I almost can't overstate how revolutionary this was when this data was produced in 2013 by Matt Hanson and his collaborators. I mean, what we had before to look at were every country would submit to the Food and Agricultural Organization one number for how much forest they said they'd lost in the last five years, self reporting, self reported. And some countries had, you know, they would make their number really high for political reasons. Other countries would say, we have no deforestation at all for political reasons. And so you can imagine what a mess that was for previous researchers, including myself, to deal with. Now there's satellites, and you can really track deforestation as it happens year on year, right where it's happening.

[B]

And what we found is pretty scary.

[A]

And what we found is scary. Yeah. So we see this pattern that deforestation doesn't just plod along the same amount every year as previous researchers were sort of forced to assume. In fact, it rises very steeply at first, and then it plateaus and eventually it falls.

[B]

But that's over a very long period of time.

[A]

Over a very long period of time, sure.

[B]

So using that satellite data, you found that the trends for deforestation are going to do what, to mid century?

[A]

In places, in remote places with a lot of forest left, we expect the deforestation, once it arrives there, can shoot up very rapidly. Places like the interior of the Amazon and the heart of the Congo Basin.

[B]

And this tells us that actually deforestation rates are going to increase in the next few decades.

[A]

That's what we project. We project that deforestation rates will increase over time, rising gradually through the 2000 and twenties and 2000 and thirties before accelerating in the 2000 forties if we do nothing about it.

[B]

So what would be the impact of all of this on people in poor countries, on development?

[A]

There's two. So climate. Climate change affects everyone on this planet, but it affects poor people the most through more expensive food, through bigger storms. Really, most of the costs of climate change fall on the backs of poor people. So if you can stop climate change, you help development. The other thing is that by protecting forests, there's a lot of benefits for people who live downwind or downstream of those forests. Forests keep water clean, they prevent droughts, they help agriculture. They do a lot of good things. So protecting forests has benefits for development.

[B]

So on that point, I mean, we've talked about the figures and how stark and frightening they are. But your paper also discusses things that we can do. And you look at two particular areas, policy and carbon pricing. Let's look at policy first. And here you look at the example of Brazil as something that other countries could learn from, right?

[A]

Yeah. So Brazil has done something remarkable in the past decade. They've done more to reduce climate changing emissions than any other country on the planet. And the way they've done it is by really taming the deforestation in the Amazon. They've cut it from its peak by about 80% in one decade. And at the same time, their soy production and their cattle production grew by about 30 to 60% each over that same time.

[B]

And they did it how?

[A]

And they did it with law enforcement, backed by satellite monitoring, new protected areas, moratoriums on producing beef and soy in a way that clears forests, credit restrictions on municipalities that were clearing forests. So a lot of very restrictive measures in Brazil's case, but very effective.

[B]

That all takes a lot of political will. But in the absence of that, or in addition to that, you also talk about creating economic incentives to stop tropical deforestation. And one thing you look at is introducing a carbon price. And you've got some numbers on this as well.

[A]

So a lot of political will in Brazil from President Lula Minister Marina Silva. They felt there was a nun who'd been shot. They felt they had to send in the army and clear this problem. But most countries are not where Brazil is. Most countries in the tropics are facing a situation where people are clearing forests for agriculture generally. Large agricultural commodity businesses that are traded internationally. Soy and beef in Latin America, palm oil and timber in Asia, and charcoal and timber in Africa. And so the key, the crux, we think, as environmental economists to arresting the problem of tropical deforestation is by making forests worth more alive than dead. So that someone, a farmer, is deciding whether to clear land for cattle or to protect those forests. If the forests have a carbon value that they can tangibly receive as income, they're more likely to keep those forests standing. And that's what our paper looks at. We found that A$20 per ton of carbon dioxide price on carbon emissions would reduce the global emissions I told you about before by about 1/4. $50 per ton price by 2050 would cut those emissions by half those numbers.

[B]

$20 a tonne. $50 a tonne, if you do the maths and then multiply $20 by the number of tonnes of carbon dioxide, you want to reduce those Numbers can be pretty big. That might scare off policymakers. So let's talk a little bit about where those numbers sit in relation to other proposals or suggested carbon prices that are out there.

[A]

Yeah. So I want to say that these numbers are actually, they're smaller than they first appear for a few reasons. And one is, if you have a $20 per ton carbon price in a market, the cost to people is actually not $20, it's something less than that. It's. It's closer on average to about $9. Just like you may pay $100 for your shoes, but it's only costing $20 or $50 to produce those shoes. Same thing here with carbon.

[B]

So there's a bit of a markup.

[A]

So there's a markup that's profit if it's done right, that's profit for the land users. Just like they'd get profit from beef or they'd get profit from soy. Now they could get profit from carbon. That's the idea. Now, the other thing is, let's compare these numbers to a few things. So if you wanted to stop climate change, and you only wanted to do it in Europe, by reducing the cars that people drive or the power plants they're using, it would cost five times as much as it would from reducing tropical deforestation.

[B]

So what you're saying is that preserving tropical forests is a cheaper way to reduce emissions than could be done elsewhere, say, in the European Union.

[A]

That's right. If it costs you $100 in the EU, it costs you $20 in the tropics.

[B]

So the point is that policymakers should not be alarmed by the $20 or the $50 a tonne, because it's actually in keeping with other proposals out there.

[A]

Reducing tropical deforestation is a bargain when it comes to stopping climate change.

[B]

So does this make you think about what is the role of rich countries in reducing tropical deforestation?

[A]

So rich countries should absolutely be switching to renewable energy. They should absolutely be figuring out how to make cars more efficient. But they should also, on top of that, be sponsoring reducing deforestation in the tropics, providing financial incentives to reduce deforestation in tropical countries. They can do that with payments, with funds, or they can do that with carbon markets, linking carbon markets in Europe or in California to the tropical countries.

[B]

So you're creating economic incentives for people not to chop down trees. Rich countries are paying for the global public good of a clean environment. Everybody benefits from that, and they can reach their commitments to reduce carbon emissions, global carbon emissions, in a way that financially makes better sense?

[A]

Yes, It's a much cheaper way to fight climate change. And why is that? We don't have the luxury of spending all our money to fight climate change. Look, I work on climate change. I know it's important. But all of our colleagues in CGD work on important things, too. Global health is important. Fighting poverty is important. Education is important. We live in a world with many important things and scarce resources. And so we want to fight climate change, but we want to do it cheaply.

[B]

So let's cast our minds forward to December to the Paris Climate Conference. In the light of your findings, what do you want policymakers there to be thinking about and doing?

[A]

Well, forests should be a much bigger part of the climate solution in 2015. All the countries are coming together to fight climate change. Things look pretty good right now. It looks like many of the biggest countries are putting bold, ambitious pledges on the table. But there's a worry that forests might fall through the cracks. Some forest countries will offer a certain amount of emission reductions, but it's not nearly as much as could happen as they could do with financing coming in from the rich countries. So we'd like to see more partnerships where a rich country like the USA says to a poor country with a lot of forests like Liberia, we will help you achieve many more emission reductions. And in return, here's money to do it.

[B]

Okay, Jonah, sounds fascinating. The numbers are stark. It's great to talk to you about some of the kind of potential solutions and I'm sure we'll be back talking about this in the future. For the moment, Jonah, thanks very much for joining us.

[A]

Thank you, Rajesh. Wonderful to be here.

[B]

Don't forget, you can find out much more about all this work and everything that CG does. Up to you, CGD does on our website, www.cgdev.org. i'm Rajesh Merchandani and join me again for the next podcast from the center for Global.