The CGD Podcast

Episode: The Future of Forests – with Jonah Busch

Date: August 25, 2015
Host: Rajesh Merchandani, Center for Global Development
Guest: Jonah Busch, Research Fellow
Main Theme:
This episode delves into the dire future impacts of unchecked tropical deforestation, the monumental consequences for global climate and development, and the practical, affordable solutions that can change this trajectory. Drawing from a new research paper co-authored by Jonah Busch, the discussion highlights stark projections, the revolution in deforestation monitoring, economic realities, policy success stories, and the pivotal role of rich countries in climate action.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stark Projections from New Research

• Extent of Deforestation by 2050:

  • “If the world does nothing about tropical deforestation, we can expect an area of tropical forest the size of India to be cleared by 2050. That's 2.9 million square kilometers. That's 1/3 the size of the U.S., all the land east of the Mississippi River plus Texas thrown in for good.” – Jonah Busch [01:13]

• Enormous Carbon Emissions:

  • “It's 169 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is like running 44,000 American coal fired power plants for a year. It's one sixth of our total planetary carbon budget.” – Jonah Busch [01:42]

• Definition of 'Carbon Budget':

  • “Carbon budget is the amount of carbon that scientists say we have left to emit in order to keep global temperature rises below 2 degrees Celsius and stop dangerous climate change.” – Rajesh Merchandani [01:58]
  • “Just tropical deforestation. One sixth of that carbon budget.” – Jonah Busch [02:14]

2. Technological Revolution in Deforestation Monitoring

• From Self-Reporting to Satellite Data:

  • “I almost can't overstate how revolutionary this was when this data was produced in 2013 by Matt Hansen and his collaborators... Now there's satellites, and you can really track deforestation as it happens year on year, right where it's happening.” – Jonah Busch [02:23–03:38]

• Past Data Limitations:

  • “Every country would submit... one number for how much forest they said they'd lost in the last five years, self reporting... you can imagine what a mess that was for previous researchers.” – Jonah Busch [02:54]

• New Trends Uncovered:

  • “Deforestation doesn't just plod along the same amount every year... in fact, it rises very steeply at first, then it plateaus, and eventually falls.” – Jonah Busch [03:59]

3. Future Trends in Deforestation Rates

• Accelerating Deforestation in Untouched Areas:

  • “In places, in remote places with a lot of forest left, we expect the deforestation, once it arrives there, can shoot up very rapidly. Places like the interior of the Amazon and the heart of the Congo Basin.” – Jonah Busch [04:28]

• Overall Trajectory:

  • “We project that deforestation rates will increase over time, rising gradually through the 2020s and 2030s before accelerating in the 2040s if we do nothing about it.” – Jonah Busch [04:49]

4. Development Impacts of Deforestation

• Burden on the Poor:

  • “Climate change affects everyone on this planet, but it affects poor people the most through more expensive food, through bigger storms. Most of the costs of climate change fall on the backs of poor people.” – Jonah Busch [05:09]

• Local Environmental Benefits of Forests:

  • “By protecting forests, there's a lot of benefits for people who live downwind or downstream... Forests keep water clean, they prevent droughts, they help agriculture.” – Jonah Busch [05:42]

5. Solutions: Policy and Carbon Pricing

a. Policy Example: Brazil

• Unprecedented Success:

  • “Brazil has done something remarkable... They've done more to reduce climate changing emissions than any other country... They've cut [Amazon deforestation] from its peak by about 80% in one decade.” – Jonah Busch [06:12]

• Methods Used:

  • “Law enforcement, backed by satellite monitoring, new protected areas, moratoriums on producing beef and soy in a way that clears forests, credit restrictions...” – Jonah Busch [06:44]

b. Economic Incentives & Carbon Pricing

• Making Forests Worth More Alive than Dead:

  • “The crux, we think, as environmental economists to arresting the problem... is by making forests worth more alive than dead.” – Jonah Busch [07:47]

• Carbon Prices and Impact:

  • “We found that a $20 per ton of carbon dioxide price on carbon emissions would reduce the global emissions... by about 1/4. $50 per ton price by 2050 would cut those emissions by half.” – Jonah Busch [08:50]

• Cost Comparisons:

  • “If it costs you $100 in the EU [to reduce emissions], it costs you $20 in the tropics.” – Jonah Busch [10:48]

• Not a Policy-Maker Scare:

  • “Reducing tropical deforestation is a bargain when it comes to stopping climate change.” – Jonah Busch [11:02]

6. Role of Wealthy Countries

• Beyond Own Emissions:

  • “Rich countries should absolutely be switching to renewable energy... But they should also... be sponsoring reducing deforestation in the tropics, providing financial incentives...” – Jonah Busch [11:12]

• Linking Carbon Markets:

  • “They can do that with payments, with funds, or they can do that with carbon markets, linking carbon markets in Europe or in California to tropical countries.” – Jonah Busch [11:38]

• Development Synergies:

  • “We want to fight climate change, but we want to do it cheaply.” – Jonah Busch [12:31]

7. Key Policy Recommendations for Paris 2015

• Forests Must Be Central to Solutions:

  • “Forests should be a much bigger part of the climate solution in 2015... there's a worry that forests might fall through the cracks.” – Jonah Busch [12:56]

• More Rich-Poor Country Partnerships:

  • “We'd like to see more partnerships where a rich country like the USA says to a poor country with a lot of forests like Liberia, we will help you achieve many more emission reductions. And in return, here's money to do it.” – Jonah Busch [13:33]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “That's 169 billion tons of carbon dioxide. That is like running 44,000 American coal fired power plants for a year.” – Jonah Busch [01:42]
• “We want to fight climate change, but we want to do it cheaply.” – Jonah Busch [12:31]
• “Reducing tropical deforestation is a bargain when it comes to stopping climate change.” – Jonah Busch [11:02]
• “I almost can't overstate how revolutionary this was when this data was produced in 2013...” – Jonah Busch [02:23]
• “Brazil has done something remarkable in the past decade. They've done more to reduce climate changing emissions than any other country on the planet.” – Jonah Busch [06:12]

Important Timestamps

• 00:06 – Introduction & episode context
• 01:13 – Deforestation projections and carbon budget
• 02:23 – Role of satellite data, breakthrough in monitoring
• 03:59 – Deforestation dynamics (rising-plateau-fall)
• 04:28 – Deforestation trends to 2050
• 05:09 – Development and poverty implications
• 06:12 – Brazil as a policy model
• 07:28 – Economic incentives & carbon pricing
• 08:50 – Impact of carbon price levels
• 10:48 – Cost comparison: tropics vs. developed world
• 11:12 – Role of rich countries
• 12:56 – Policy directions for climate summits
• 13:33 – Call for partnerships between rich and forest-rich countries

Summary Table

| Segment | Key Points | Timestamp | |--------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Introduction | Set global context; highlight size of problem | 00:06-01:13| | Research Findings | Scope of deforestation, carbon impact | 01:13-02:14| | Data Revolution | Power of satellite data, detail on trends | 02:23-03:59| | Future Projections | Acceleration in untouched regions | 04:28-05:03| | Development Impacts | Effects on poor, benefits of forests | 05:09-05:55| | Brazil's Success | Policy actions, enforcement, impact | 06:12-07:11| | Carbon Pricing | Incentives, numbers, cost effectiveness | 07:28-11:06| | Role of Wealthy Nations | Responsibility, carbon markets, funding | 11:12-12:45| | Paris 2015 Recommendations | Forests in policy, north-south partnerships | 12:56-13:48|

Conclusion

This episode underscores that unchecked tropical deforestation would have catastrophic effects on the climate, hitting the poorest the hardest. However, with robust policies, economic incentives, and international cooperation—especially through affordable carbon pricing and targeting forest preservation—major progress is not only possible, but comparatively inexpensive. As the world readied for the Paris Climate Conference, Busch’s research offers both a warning and a roadmap: forests must be at the heart of global climate solutions, and the cheapest way to curb warming is to stop cutting them down.