Podcast Summary: The CGD Podcast

Episode: The Man Who Almost Doubled Nigeria’s GDP
Date: April 7, 2015
Host: Rajesh Merchandani (Center for Global Development)
Guests:

• Dr. Yemi Kale – Chief Statistician of Nigeria, Head of National Bureau of Statistics
• Professor Morten Jerven – Simon Fraser University, Author of "Poor Numbers"

Overview

This episode explores Nigeria’s dramatic GDP recalculation—an 89% jump in the official figure after the country rebased its GDP. Host Rajesh Merchandani interviews Dr. Yemi Kale, who oversaw the process, and Prof. Morten Jerven, a leading researcher on African economic statistics. The discussion delves into the causes and consequences of the GDP revision, the quality of statistical data in Africa, and the broader implications for policy, investment, and the independence of statistical offices.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Shocking GDP Recalculation

• Nigeria’s GDP rose by 89% in 2014 due to updating the base year for economic calculations from 1990 to a more recent year.
• Immediate Reactions and Process:
  • Dr. Yemi Kale describes mixed feelings—both “apprehension” and a need for rigorous validation involving staff, the IMF, World Bank, and African organizations.

    • “The first time I saw those numbers, I got very, very worried actually...I went down to the department. I had to be extremely sure.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [01:31]

• The process' delay was rooted in ensuring accuracy for the first GDP rebasing in over two decades.

2. Old Data, Old Problems

• Nigeria used 1990 as its GDP “base year” until 2014, meaning all growth and prices referenced outdated economic structures.
• Prof. Jerven notes that Nigeria isn’t unique: “A decade or two old base year is not that unusual” in African countries.
  • He draws comparisons to Tanzania and Ghana’s earlier rebasing events, often missed by the international community.

    • “When they changed from 1980s base year to a 1992 base year...no one was paying attention.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [03:08–04:27]

3. Global Relevance and Changing Norms

• Even developed countries, like the UK, have revised GDPs by including activities like prostitution and drug trades, illustrating that GDP is a flexible, evolving international standard.

  • “Any European Union country that needs a little boost to their GDP, look no further than your illegal activity.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [05:53]

4. Statistical Attention and African “Reawakening”

• Post-rebasing, demand for accurate African economic data is rising—from investors, policymakers, and governments.

  • “Investors do not want to invest in an area they don’t understand...To do that you’re going to have to provide me with better quality data.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [06:44]

• The drive is mutual: investors require transparency; African governments need data to attract investment, creating virtuous pressure to upgrade statistical practices.

5. The Challenges of Keeping Statistics Up-to-date

• Prof. Jerven emphasizes the difficulty of maintaining momentum for accurate, updated statistics. It requires continuous attention from both international organizations and domestic policymakers.
• Staff and leadership turnover, shifting priorities, and funding constraints are real obstacles.

  • “As soon as you’re done with one rebasing, you have to start planning for the next one if you’re going to be done in five years.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [09:41]

6. Building Institutional Independence

• Dr. Kale outlines efforts to institutionalize consistency:
  • Making GDP rebasing routine, not dependent on who leads the Bureau.
  • Ongoing staff training.
  • Focusing on building robust, automatic data production processes.

    • “We’re not doing a GDP rebasing just for updating numbers for now...It is building that institution so that regardless of whether Yemi Kale is the head...it becomes a normal practice.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [10:04]

7. Political Support, Funding, and Public Engagement

• Political support and funding are essential; Dr. Kale notes improved support as Nigeria’s policymakers become more engaged with statistical data.
• Key strategy: make data widely accessible and relevant (not buried in unread tomes).
  • After redesigning the website and making data available online, hits rose from 36,000 in 2005 to over 7 million by 2014.

    • “Initially, data was published in very thick...books...Now, we revamped our website...all of a sudden, everybody can get data, everybody’s in data.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [12:41]

8. Data Transparency and Political Pressure

• Dr. Kale describes how publishing negative statistics (like worsening poverty) forced ministers and policymakers to pay attention—even if it embarrassed them.

  • “One of the things I said when I took the job...if I’m going to do this work properly, I should be ready to lose my job.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [15:06]

• He recounts not being asked to falsify data, but facing anger about publishing true (politically inconvenient) data.

9. The Essential Independence of Statistical Agencies

• Prof. Jerven and Dr. Kale emphasize the importance of agency independence, integrity, and legitimacy.
  • Must resist political interference and serve the public, not just policymakers or investors.

  • “Statistical offices...must maintain their integrity and legitimacy...provide valid statistics...assert themselves...independently of other cycles.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [17:09]

10. Harnessing Technology for Better Data

• Innovative approaches: Using mobile phones to gather daily expenditure and income data from informal businesses, incentivized with phone credits.
  • Moving from paper to computer-assisted interviews (with GPS and audit features) for more reliable and verifiable data collection.

    • “Any staff that wants to be trained and stay under the tree fixing number is unable to do that because these gadgets are GPS enabled.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [19:09]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I got very, very worried actually...I had to be extremely sure.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [01:31]
• “A decade or two old base year is not that unusual.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [04:35]
• “I should be ready to lose my job.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [15:06]
• “Statistical offices...must maintain their integrity and legitimacy.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [17:09]
• “Now, we revamped our website...all of a sudden, everybody can get data, everybody’s in data.” – Dr. Yemi Kale [12:41]
• “As soon as you’re done with one rebasing, you have to start planning for the next one if you’re going to be done in five years.” – Prof. Morten Jerven [09:41]
• “If you publish data that embarrasses the powers that be, you get their attention and sometimes their funding.” – paraphased from discussion [14:55–15:04]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:05 – 01:31: Introduction, significance of Nigeria’s GDP rebasing
• 01:31 – 02:55: Dr. Kale describes reaction, process, and international validation
• 03:08 – 05:35: Prof. Jerven contextualizes Africa-wide and global statistical issues
• 06:11 – 07:39: Rising importance of accurate data for investment in Africa
• 08:04 – 10:02: Maintaining updated statistics as a recurring challenge
• 10:04 – 12:41: Institutional reforms, dissemination strategies, and growing data access in Nigeria
• 15:06 – 16:54: Personal and political pressures, transparency, and agency
• 17:09 – 18:09: The necessity of independence and legitimacy for statistical offices
• 18:09 – 20:12: Technology-driven innovations in collecting data

Tone and Language

The episode is conversational yet expertly detailed, mixing humor (about embarrassing politicians and youthful “stupidity” in job risks) with sober analysis of development challenges. Both guests stress the technical and political complexity of economic measurement in developing countries—looking beyond headline figures to the deeper work and ongoing reforms required to ensure data accuracy and integrity.

Conclusion

The episode reveals how vital, complex, and political the task of economic measurement is—especially in developing economies. Nigeria’s experience is presented as a case of statistical “reawakening,” but one that is fragile without continued investment, independence, and innovation. Ultimately, the story is just as much about institutional transformation and public accountability as it is about numbers.