The CGD Podcast: The Upside of Down – Charles Kenny
Date: January 27, 2014
Host: Lawrence MacDonald, Center for Global Development
Guest: Charles Kenny, author and CGD Senior Fellow
Main Theme:
Exploring Charles Kenny's book, "The Upside of Down: Why the Rise of the Rest Is Good for the West," the episode challenges zero-sum thinking about global economic shifts. Kenny argues that the economic growth of developing countries benefits the West and the world at large, and outlines policy choices that can lead to shared prosperity.
Episode Overview
Charles Kenny discusses the core thesis of his latest book: as countries like China and India rise economically, the West need not fear relative decline. Instead, the United States and Europe should embrace global development, shaping policies that are mutually beneficial rather than defensive. The conversation weaves Kenny’s personal story, optimism about global progress, critiques of Western policy, and the urgent challenges of climate change.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Book Thesis: The Rise of the Rest is Good for the West
Summing Up the Argument
Kenny reads a key passage encapsulating his central thesis:
- “Rather than focusing on retaining or regaining top nation status... policymakers would be better employed seeking to maximize America’s and Europe’s benefits from a richer, healthier, more educated and safer world.”
[01:26]
Zero-Sum Thinking Debunked:
- Many still see the global economy as a zero-sum game: “If China is up, we must be down” ([02:42]).
- Kenny points out that global GDP is not a fixed pie: “GDP doesn’t have a limit to it. ...The world has seen a massively expanding global economy and that’s in the best interests of the United States to see it continue.”
[02:42] – Charles Kenny
Historical Comparison:
- Citing Britain’s graceful adaptation to relative decline, Kenny notes: “Controlling a quarter of global trade did not mean that most Brits lived above any modern Western poverty line... It was wonderful for the Prime Minister and Queen Victoria... how much that actually did for everyday Brits is really arguable.”
[04:24] – Charles Kenny
2. Personal Backstory and Global Perspective
- Kenny relates his international family background, emphasizing the advantages of living in a globally connected world:
- “I have been in the immensely fortunate situation from birth of being a citizen of the United States and a member of the European Union.”
[06:48]
- “I have been in the immensely fortunate situation from birth of being a citizen of the United States and a member of the European Union.”
- His family embodies “the advantage of a global world,” with children eligible for multiple citizenships and relatives from diverse backgrounds ([07:23]).
On Optimism and Privilege:
- Kenny acknowledges his “rose-colored glasses” stemming from personal fortune, but insists that progress is real:
- “Over the last 20, 30 years, we’ve seen more progress against those evils of poverty than any time before in history by a huge margin.”
[09:36]
- “Over the last 20, 30 years, we’ve seen more progress against those evils of poverty than any time before in history by a huge margin.”
3. The “Real Agenda”: Policy for Shared Prosperity
Broadening the Audience:
- MacDonald observes, “Your real agenda ... is that [the West] should embrace policies that are going to improve the lives of people who are still in misery.” ([10:33]) Kenny agrees: “Busted.”
[10:33] – Lawrence MacDonald & Charles Kenny
Critique of US Trade Policy:
- Kenny highlights how the US pushes narrow interests (Big Pharma, Hollywood, tobacco) in trade agreements, with negative consequences for developing countries ([11:21]).
Generosity & Self-Interest Intersect:
- The “Commitment to Development Index” is less about altruism and more about enlightened self-interest. As poor countries become richer and more innovative, it benefits the US and Europe too.
- “In a positive sum world [long-term interests of rich countries] happen to match up with what is good for developing countries.”
[12:23]
- “In a positive sum world [long-term interests of rich countries] happen to match up with what is good for developing countries.”
- On intellectual property: “In the long term, the United States doesn’t really – it’s not in the United States’ interest to look for these hugely long copyright and patent terms because ... we’ll be receiving as much of our intellectual property as we are selling.”
[13:02]
Ugly American Concerns:
- On tobacco exports: “I don’t think it is good for the United States to have the reputation of a country that would rather put a few trade dollars ahead of the public health of its trading partners.”
[14:07]
4. Domestic Challenges and Political Dysfunction
Concerns about US Democracy:
- MacDonald raises the issue of political capture by special interests and “legalized corruption” in American politics, lamenting that “it’s not a democracy, it’s an auction.”
[17:54] – Lawrence MacDonald
Kenny’s Response:
- He concedes the book doesn’t address domestic reforms, but expresses faith in the US’s ability to “bully through”:
- “When push comes to shove... things can [get] done... [not] perfectly but better than the doubters might have expected.”
[18:14]
- “When push comes to shove... things can [get] done... [not] perfectly but better than the doubters might have expected.”
- Yet, he also points to failures—such as Congress’s refusal to approve IMF funding—and acknowledges deep-seated problems ([20:29]).
5. Environmental Constraints & Climate Change
Climate Risks Acknowledged:
- MacDonald presses on the ‘polar bear in the room’—climate change and resource limits. Kenny affirms the seriousness:
- “There is one somewhat legitimate fear about a growing global economy... if they grow the way we grew up, we are going to toast the planet.”
[22:00]
- “There is one somewhat legitimate fear about a growing global economy... if they grow the way we grew up, we are going to toast the planet.”
Reasons for Hope:
- Developing countries are innovating differently:
- “If you look at the largest producer of solar cells in the world, it’s China. ...They are already taking steps way in advance of any steps we took until we were way richer.”
[22:51]
- “If you look at the largest producer of solar cells in the world, it’s China. ...They are already taking steps way in advance of any steps we took until we were way richer.”
- Public willingness to make sacrifices for the environment is higher in some developing countries (notably China) than in the US ([22:51]).
Fairness to the Poor:
- “We do not want to fix the climate on the back of the poor... especially in Africa [where people] consume far, far, far less energy than we do.”
[23:54] - The rich world must both reduce its own emissions and support the poor in accessing sustainable energy ([24:41]).
On Climate Diplomacy:
- Kenny is skeptical about a globally binding deal:
- “Maybe that’s where we ought to be putting our focus” – on ad hoc, multi-country initiatives, innovation, and “carbon added taxes,” rather than waiting for universal agreement.
[27:12]
- “Maybe that’s where we ought to be putting our focus” – on ad hoc, multi-country initiatives, innovation, and “carbon added taxes,” rather than waiting for universal agreement.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “GDP doesn’t have a limit to it. ...The world has seen a massively expanding global economy and that’s in the best interests of the United States to see it continue.”
[02:42] – Charles Kenny - “Controlling a quarter of global trade did not mean that most Brits lived above any modern Western poverty line.”
[04:24] – Charles Kenny - “I have been in the immensely fortunate situation from birth of being a citizen of the United States and a member of the European Union, if you will.”
[06:48] – Charles Kenny - “Over the last 20, 30 years, we’ve seen more progress against those evils of poverty than any time before in history by a huge margin.”
[09:36] – Charles Kenny - “In a positive sum world [long-term interests of rich countries] happen to match up with what is good for developing countries.”
[12:23] – Charles Kenny - “I don’t think it is good for the United States to have the reputation of a country that would rather put a few trade dollars ahead of the public health of its trading partners.”
[14:07] – Charles Kenny - “We should not stop [the world’s poor] getting access to electricity. We darn well should help them get access to electricity in a manner that is sustainable because that’s in our own self-interest...”
[23:54] – Charles Kenny
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|--------------------| | [01:26] | Kenny reads his thesis from the book | | [02:42] | Discussion on zero-sum thinking and global GDP | | [04:24] | The real impact of national economic dominance (UK historical example) | | [06:48] | Kenny’s international family background | | [09:36] | Optimism about global progress against poverty | | [11:21] | Critique of US trade policy and narrow interests | | [12:23] | Alignment of generosity and self-interest | | [14:07] | Long-term interests: Tobacco policy and reputation | | [17:54] | Concerns about US democracy and special interests | | [18:14] | Kenny’s nuanced optimism about US political system | | [22:00] | Climate change as the legitimate global fear | | [23:54] | Energy poverty and fairness in climate action | | [27:12] | Alternatives to global climate deals (ad hoc action) |
Final Thoughts
Tone: The discussion is frank, optimistic but realistic, self-aware, and often lightly humorous. Kenny’s “resident optimist” persona is balanced by clear-eyed awareness of ongoing challenges—from endemic poverty to environmental threats to US political dysfunction.
Takeaway:
The rise of developing countries is not a threat, but an opportunity, for the West—provided it rethinks its policies in a way that is mutually beneficial, forward-looking, and rooted in both self-interest and common humanity.