The CGD Podcast: “US Immigration Reform and Guest Workers – Michael Clemens”

Host: Center for Global Development (Lawrence MacDonald)
Guest: Michael Clemens, Senior Fellow, CGD
Date: April 22, 2013

Overview

This episode critically examines the proposed US immigration reform bill (2013) and its provisions for expanding temporary “guest worker” programs through the new W visa. Host Lawrence MacDonald talks with Michael Clemens, a leading expert on labor mobility and development, about what these changes mean for both the United States and people in developing countries. The conversation delves into economic needs, political realities, misconceptions about migrants, and the potential for labor mobility to offer broad-based benefits.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Changing Political Landscape for Immigration Reform

• Post-2012 Election Shift: Both parties have started supporting immigration reform, spurred by electoral losses and demographic changes ([00:24]–[01:09]).
• Central Legislation: The bipartisan “Gang of Eight” bill includes a section for modest increases in low-skill temporary work visas—dubbed the “W visa” ([01:09]–[01:43]).

2. Economic Opportunities—W Visa and its Impact

• Scale of the Program:

  “It is for 200,000 time bound temporary low skill visas, employment visas per year. And it is an incredible opportunity for people outside the country to benefit from the US labor market.” — Michael Clemens ([01:43])

• Value for Migrants:
  • Crossing the border, even legally, can multiply earnings for workers five to ten times compared to their home country ([03:09]–[04:00]).
  • Example: H2A agricultural workers earn $9.70/hr in the US; in Mexico, minimum wage is $0.57/hr.

    "We're talking about life-changing revaluation of the labor of hard-working people." — Michael Clemens ([03:09])

3. Addressing Common Concerns: Employment and Downward Pressure on Wages

• Labor Shortages Unavoidable:
  • The US economy’s demand for low-skill jobs will outpace the number of Americans entering the labor force, meaning those jobs “are either not going to get done or people from other countries are going to do them.” ([04:39]–[06:18])
• Impact on US Workers:
  • Legal migration channels protect both US and migrant workers by ensuring enforcement of minimum wage and basic standards, reducing exploitations that flourish in the black market ([04:11]).
• Personal Story:
  • Clemens shares how high elder care costs exhausted his mother’s retirement savings, highlighting how labor scarcity directly affects American families ([06:47]–[08:22]).

  “There are real trade offs... doubling wages means that your retirement savings goes half as far.” — Michael Clemens ([06:47])

4. The “Shadow” Workforce and Policy Lessons from History

• Magnitude of Undocumented Workers:
  • There are millions of “informal temporary workers” (undocumented), compared to a fraction with legal, formal status ([09:25]–[10:23]).
• Failure of Past Reforms:
  • The 1986 Immigration Reform legalized many then-undocumented migrants but didn't provide legal channels for ongoing labor needs, leading unauthorized migration to rebound ([10:23]).
• Key Analogy:

  “It wouldn't have made sense to delay the end of Prohibition until we had achieved exactly zero alcohol consumption... The point of repealing Prohibition was to ensure the laws... were aligned to the best interests of Americans.” — Michael Clemens ([11:59])

5. Modesty and Limitations of Proposed W Visa

• Insufficient Legal Pathways:
  • The proposed cap (200,000/year) is less than historical unauthorized flows (350,000–500,000/year during strong economies); risk remains for renewed undocumented migration ([13:14]).

  “I fear... that difference will be made up by additional waves of unauthorized immigration heading us towards a new crisis.” — Michael Clemens ([13:14])

6. Myths about Migrant Intentions: Will Guest Workers Stay?

• Research Debunking “They’ll Never Leave”:
  • Tougher border enforcement decreases circular migration, making people less likely to return home ([16:18]).

  “There were people who stayed in the United States who would have been going back and forth... because it became harder to get in.” — Michael Clemens ([16:18])

• Development Angle:
  • Circular movement helps home countries, allowing migrants to return with new skills and resources ([17:17]).

  “It can only enhance their ability to... strengthen their home communities.” — Michael Clemens ([17:34])

7. Prospects for Legislative Influence and Outcomes

• Expanded but Politically Negotiated Numbers:
  • The bill raises the share of both high and low-skill temporary visas, notably opening coverage beyond seasonal work (e.g., elder care, non-seasonal agriculture).
  • The numbers are a compromise between business and labor, and Clemens believes they're too low for long-term needs ([19:29]).
• Possibility for System Expansion:
  • Success and public trust could make political expansion of guest worker quotas feasible over time ([21:12]).

8. Indirect Economic Benefits—Beyond the Wage Debate

• Migrants are Consumers Too:
  • “You’re never going to see the effects of that on investment... in job creation when looking at them and their friends or the people who are competing for their jobs.” ([23:50])
  • Migrant labor sustains entire industries—agriculture, service sectors, “taco trucks," etc. ([23:53])
• Empowering Working Women:
  • More low-skill migrant labor (e.g., childcare, elder care) enables educated American women to participate in the workforce, boosting overall productivity ([24:25]–[25:43]).
  • Patricia Cortes’ research supports the causal link between low-skilled immigration and higher labor force participation among high-skill native women ([25:43]).
• Educational Attainment:
  • Having more low-skill immigrants increases the incentive for native students to complete high school, as shown in Jenny Hunt's study ([26:33]–[28:45]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On value for migrants:

  “It is the opportunity for many of them to multiply their earnings by five times, eight times, ten times.” — Michael Clemens ([03:09])

• On protection for natives and migrants:

  “No US worker wants to be competing with people who are working on the black market where there's no effective minimum wage, no worker protections of any kind.” — Michael Clemens ([04:11])

• On the logic of reform:

  “What we do with the law in this country is adopt laws that are in the national interest. And it wouldn't have made sense to me to delay the end of Prohibition until we had achieved exactly zero alcohol consumption.” — Michael Clemens ([11:59])

• On the limits of the W visa:

  “It's not modest in that it is a huge expansion of... legal opportunities. It's modest with respect to... the needs of the economy.” — Michael Clemens ([13:14])

• On guest worker “abuse” myths:

  “The increased border enforcement... actually decreased circular movement between Mexico and the United States.” — Michael Clemens ([16:18])

• On indirect economic impact:

  “Migrants help to keep entire industries alive... When those sectors disappear, many more workers than just the harvest laborers are put out of work.” — Michael Clemens ([23:53])

• On the positive side for women & education:

  “In US cities that have received more low skill migrants, high skill US women are more likely to be working rather than not working.” — Michael Clemens ([24:50]) “In US States that have gotten more low skill immigrants over the past decades, high school dropout rates have been falling faster.” — Michael Clemens ([28:08])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction & Political Context: [00:10]–[01:43]
• W Visa Overview & Benefits for Migrants: [01:43]–[04:00]
• Labor Market Needs & Competition: [04:00]–[06:18]
• Personal Story on Elder Care Costs: [06:47]–[08:22]
• Scale of Informal Workers & Historical Lessons: [09:25]–[11:13]
• Policy Rationale & Prohibition Analogy: [11:59]–[12:37]
• Guest Worker Cap vs. Economic Demand: [13:14]–[14:45]
• Are Guest Workers Here to Stay? Circular Migration: [16:13]–[17:49]
• CGD’s Role & Prospects for the Legislation: [18:55]–[21:12]
• Indirect Economic Benefits & Women’s Labor: [22:04]–[25:43]
• Research on Causality & Education: [25:43]–[28:45]
• Closing Thoughts: [28:45]–[29:00]

Conclusion

The episode rigorously challenges preconceptions about immigrants and guest worker programs, highlighting the wide-ranging benefits—economic, social, and developmental—of more flexible, humane labor mobility policies. Clemens argues that carefully designed temporary worker visas can be a “win, win, win, win” for the US middle class, US workers, border security, and migrants themselves, provided policy keeps pace with real labor needs. The politics are still challenging, but the potential for smart reform is clear.