The CGD Podcast: What to Do About Migrants and Refugees? – Michael Clemens

Center for Global Development — March 11, 2016
Host: Rajesh Merchandani
Guest: Michael Clemens (CGD’s migration expert)

Brief Overview

This episode tackles widespread concerns and misconceptions about migrants and refugees, focusing on evidence-based insights into their impact on host societies. Host Rajesh Merchandani speaks with Michael Clemens, who dissects the economic and social consequences of migration, the reality behind popular political narratives, and proposes innovative policy approaches for managing migration in ways that benefit both migrants and destination countries.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Main Arguments Against Migration and their Realities

(Starting at 01:00)

• Three Common Objections:

  1. Migrants take local jobs
  2. Migrants drain social benefits
  3. Migrants cause crime and social unrest
     Clemens explores the underlying truths and misconceptions behind each.

• Jobs and Displacement

  • Short-term displacement is real but long-term effects often benefit local workers due to structural shifts in the economy.

  • Referenced a comprehensive study in Denmark, which tracked every worker over 20 years. After initial displacement from refugee waves (Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia), locals moved into better jobs and saw wage increases.

    “The big picture result…is that in the places where those refugees were sent, people who were living there at the time ended up with better jobs and higher wages in the end, after this transition.” — (Michael Clemens, 02:49)

  • Migration as investment: Has costs (displacement, adjustment) but significant long-term payoffs to society.

• Addressing Individual Harm vs. Societal Benefit

  • Clemens stresses compassion for those negatively affected by change, calling for transition support, like trade adjustment assistance for workers displaced by globalization:

    “Politicians owe people support, social safety nets when those things happen.” — (Michael Clemens, 04:28)

  • Historical example: The harsh yet ultimately transformative shift from agricultural labor in the US (1790–today), emphasizing the necessity for institutional support during social upheaval.

    “At an individual level, that’s hard. But I also don’t think anybody would look back and say... we should still have 90% of the labor force in agriculture and not have Google…” — (Michael Clemens, 05:47)

2. Myths About Benefits and Crime

(07:00)

• Fiscal Impact of Migrants

  • Clemens cites an OECD study across 21 rich countries:

    “What is the net fiscal position…for immigrant families? And the bottom line is that it’s tremendously positive.” — (Michael Clemens, 07:20)

  • Migrants are usually younger, often skilled, and thus contribute more to tax bases while using fewer benefits.

• Syrian Refugees: Young Men as a Concern?

  • Most able-bodied, “prime of life” people are the ones able to make difficult journeys, not a disproportionately risky demographic.
  • Refugees require higher initial investment, but are a good long-term bet:
    • Example from US: After about seven years, refugees out-earn other migrants and become net contributors, sometimes far exceeding expectations (e.g., WhatsApp founder Jan Koum).

    “After...seven years, the refugees are making more…They’re often extremely committed to the place that they are going…Over the long term, they contribute to the economy.” — (Michael Clemens, 09:08)

    • The long-term contribution is often missed in debates focused on initial costs.

• Crime and Social Unrest

  • While not discussed in depth, Clemens dismisses the narrative that migrants significantly contribute to crime, pointing out the lack of data supporting such claims.

3. What Should Policy Look Like?

(11:00 onward)

• Not “Open Borders,” but Smarter Regulation

  • Clemens clarifies he does not support unregulated migration:

    “The idea that less restriction on movement is somehow equivalent to all the Syrians are going to come camp in your living room is...in the hyperventilating discussions of people who would like to keep migrants out…” — (Michael Clemens, 11:25)

  • Advocates for institutions and tools to capture global benefits of migration for both home and host countries.

• Innovative Policy Proposals

  1. Immigration Fee (Becker’s Proposal):

     • Migrants would pay a fee (e.g., $50,000, possibly financed over time) to cover societal adaptation costs (e.g., retraining, safety nets for locals), enabling a form of compensation and benefit sharing.

     “A mechanism for sharing the benefits of migration, a large fraction of which are captured by migrants, with the places that they go.” — (Michael Clemens, 13:21)

     • Distinction: Not to be confused with Denmark’s policy of seizing refugee assets, which Clemens describes as fundamentally different (“seizing the possessions of desperate people who are fleeing conflict is something very different…”— 13:52).

  2. Targeted Higher Taxation and Australian HECS Analogy

     • Possible model where migrants pay higher taxes as their incomes increase, similar to Australia’s higher education repayment system.

  3. Global Skill Partnerships

     • Instead of “recruitment bans,” enable mutually beneficial agreements.
     • Example: Train nurses in Malawi for explicit service in London, with destination countries (or employers) sharing upfront education costs, benefiting both the developing country's institutions and the needs of the hiring country.

     “We call this plan a global skill partnership. And it’s really built on the arbitrage opportunity...” — (Michael Clemens, 16:48)

4. Principles for Policymakers

(17:16 onward)

• Development Complements Migration

  • Economic development in source countries often leads to more, not less, migration in the short term; thus, development aid is not a substitute for migrant inflows.

• Investment, Not Threat

  • Changing the view of migrants from threat to investable resource is crucial but requires a shift in both public and political mindset.

    “It really is a mental shift. I mean, when you have people marching in the streets of Poland saying Islam will be the death of Europe, they’re not talking about something that’s actually happening.” — (Michael Clemens, 18:26)

• Historical Successes

  • Previous refugee crises (Hungarian, Vietnamese) ultimately benefited host societies; current challenges are surmountable with vision and planning.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The big picture result…is that in the places where those refugees were sent, people who were living there at the time ended up with better jobs and higher wages…”
  — Michael Clemens [02:49]

• “Politicians owe people support, social safety nets when those things happen.”
  — Michael Clemens [04:28]

• “The benefits to these things in the aggregate outweigh the costs. And we need mechanisms like that for the winners to compensate the losers.”
  — Michael Clemens [04:39]

• “Anyone looking at Jan Koum as a boy would say: well, look at the burden, look at the public entitlements flowing to these freeloading people from Ukraine. It takes a little bit of vision to step back and say: what’s the potential of this child to gigantically add value.”
  — Michael Clemens [10:08]

• “I don’t believe in open borders if it means anybody can just come in and do whatever they want...That’s an idea that only has currency in the hyperventilating discussions...”
  — Michael Clemens [11:10]

• “Development complements migration. Development is not a substitute for migration.”
  — Michael Clemens [17:16]

• “We have handled refugee crises very well in the past. The Hungarians and the Vietnamese have been a tremendous benefit, and they were handled very well. This one can be handled too.”
  — Michael Clemens [18:51]

Important Timestamps

• 00:06–01:00 — Political context and introduction of guest
• 01:00–03:34 — Jobs: Short- & long-term impacts, Danish study
• 03:34–06:59 — Listening to aggrieved workers, historical perspective on transition costs
• 07:11–08:46 — Benefits and fiscal impact: OECD studies, demographics of migration
• 08:46–11:10 — Real details about refugees; Jan Koum/WhatsApp example
• 11:10–13:52 — Discussion on regulation, not open borders; immigration fees
• 13:52–16:55 — Global skill partnerships and alternative to “recruitment bans”
• 17:16–19:11 — Policy principles, change in mindset, lessons from history

Summary

This episode robustly challenges clichéd fears about migration with in-depth research and case studies. Michael Clemens emphasizes the need for policies that maximize the substantial economic and social benefits of migration, while addressing the genuine short-term transitions costs for some locals. He advocates for regulatory and financial innovations—such as migration fees and global skill partnerships—to ensure fair burden-sharing and mutual benefit. Ultimately, Clemens calls for a fundamental shift in perception, urging politicians and societies to see migrants as investments in their own future prosperity, rather than a threat.