Podcast Summary: "What to Expect at COP21 – Podcast with Frances Seymour"

Podcast: The CGD Podcast
Host: Rajesh Merchandani, Center for Global Development
Guest: Frances Seymour, Senior Fellow, CGD
Date: November 24, 2015

Episode Overview

This episode examines the upcoming COP21 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, focusing on what’s at stake, how tropical forests factor into climate mitigation, and how the landscape of international climate negotiation has evolved since previous summits. Frances Seymour offers expert insights into the following: key issues under negotiation, the unique status of forests in climate talks, the impact and response to Indonesia’s forest fires, new elements at play in Paris, and reasons for both hope and realism about the future.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Main Negotiation Buckets at COP21 (00:49–02:14)

• Four main issues up for negotiation:
  • Mitigation:
    • Level of ambition and temperature targets (e.g., staying below 2°C rise).
    • Differentiation of responsibilities between rich and poor countries.
    • Frequency and ambition of target reviews.
  • Adaptation:
    • Coping with already-occurring climate change.
    • Controversial topic: liability and compensation from rich countries for unavoidable damages in poorer countries.
  • Finance:
    • Funding mechanisms and sources to support climate actions.
  • Accountability & Transparency:
    • Methods and frequency for verifying compliance with commitments.
• Quote:

  "...how and how often are we going to check whether countries are following through on their commitments, both in terms of reducing emissions and coming up with the finance? So that's the big picture of the issues that are on the table."
  — Frances Seymour (01:39)

2. Tropical Forests & REDD+ in Climate Talks (02:14–04:14)

• Forests address every major negotiation bucket: mitigation, adaptation, finance, and accountability.
• Unexpected challenge: Because forest policy negotiations (specifically REDD+ - Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) have already progressed with the Warsaw Framework (2013) and final details in Bonn (2015), forests are less prominent on the Pariss agenda.
• Current issue: Whether "REDD+" will be named in the core agreement is uncertain, impacting political and financial signaling.
• Quote:

  "...the reason forests are not high on the agenda in Paris is because the negotiations on forests have been so successful....there's really nothing left to talk about with Forest..."
  — Frances Seymour (03:04)

3. Significance of Including REDD+ in the Agreement (04:14–05:16)

• Symbolism matters: Explicitly mentioning REDD+ signals the critical importance of forests and ensures adequate focus and financing.
• Forests = Major emissions & solution potential:
  • Forest-based emissions outstrip emissions from the European Union.
• Quote:

  "...forest-based emissions are greater than the emissions from the European Union. So they're a big part of the problem and they're an even bigger part of the solution....it seems crazy not to label it..."
  — Frances Seymour (04:28)

4. Indonesia’s Forest Fires – Both a Climate and Public Health Crisis (05:16–07:58)

• Massive emissions: During Sep-Oct, Indonesia’s forest fires emitted more daily carbon than the entire U.S. economy.
• Domestic toll:
  • Public health emergency affecting hundreds of thousands/millions with respiratory issues.
  • International response should focus on solidarity and support, not blame.
• Promising actions: Indonesian government (Jokowi administration) taking steps like banning new peatland clearance.
• Quote:

  "...it really is inappropriate to lecture the Indonesians about what they need to do in the interests of the global climate, when in fact it's Indonesian citizens who have suffered a lot and the worst from having to breathe all this smoke. Now's the time for solidarity..."
  — Frances Seymour (07:34)

5. Three Key Differences at Paris versus Previous Summits (e.g., Copenhagen) (07:58–10:29)

• 1. INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions):
  • Over 190 countries have submitted pledges, marking a shift from top-down to bottom-up commitments.
  • The firewall between rich and poor countries is eroding as major developing emitters step up.
• 2. Heads of State attend at the beginning, not the end:
  • A strategy by the French hosts to avoid a last-minute failure.
• 3. The Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA):
  • Official inclusion of non-state actors (private businesses, civil society) to focus on real-world implementation.
• Quote:

  "...the process of pledging through INDCs has begun to erode the firewall between rich countries with responsibilities on one side and poor countries with less responsibilities on the other side. Because we have big developing country emitters like China, India, Brazil, Indonesia coming forward to say what they're going to do."
  — Frances Seymour (08:34)

6. Will There Be A Deal? Does It Matter If It’s Not Enough? (10:29–11:58)

• Deal value:
  • A starting point that allows for future ambition to be increased (“ratcheting up”).
  • Demonstrates willingness and good faith from many sectors—governments, private sector, civil society.
• Recognizes collective action: No country or stakeholder can solve the issue alone.
• Quote:

  "A lot of it is about signaling good faith...that everybody's got a role to play in this, both governments, private sector, civil society groups...and that by working together over time, we can ratchet up ambition and get to where we need to be."
  — Frances Seymour (11:36)

7. Atmosphere in Paris – Hope, Realism, and Reasons for Optimism (11:58–13:45)

• Compared to Copenhagen:
  • Less "irrational exuberance," more clear-eyed realism.
  • More major emitters have made commitments in advance.
  • Multiple avenues for COP21 to be considered a success (not just one big text).
• Personal optimism:
  • Frances Seymour consciously chooses optimism, citing civil rights progress in the U.S. as evidence that transformational change is possible.
• Quote:

  "Change is possible, and I look forward to experiencing it in my lifetime."
  — Frances Seymour (13:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the importance of forests:
  “Forest-based emissions are greater than the emissions from the European Union...they’re a big part of the problem and an even bigger part of the solution.” (04:28)
• On INDCs:
  “The process of pledging through INDCs has begun to erode the firewall between rich countries...and poor countries...because we have big developing country emitters...coming forward to say what they're going to do.” (08:32)
• On responding to Indonesia’s fires:
  “It really is inappropriate to lecture the Indonesians about what they need to do in the interests of the global climate, when in fact it's Indonesian citizens who have suffered a lot and the worst from having to breathe all this smoke. Now's the time for solidarity...” (07:34)
• On optimism for the planet:
  “Change is possible, and I look forward to experiencing it in my lifetime.” (13:39)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:49 – Frances Seymour outlines the four main negotiation categories at COP21.
• 02:14 – Discussion on the status and challenges for tropical forests and REDD+.
• 05:16 – Analysis of Indonesia’s massive forest fires and the appropriate global response.
• 07:58 – What makes COP21 materially different from previous summits.
• 10:29 – Will there be a deal at Paris? What is the value if current commitments are insufficient?
• 11:58 – Discussing the tone and expectations for Paris versus Copenhagen.
• 13:11 – Frances Seymour’s personal optimism and hope for change.

Tone

The conversation is informed, grounded, and engaged, balancing analytical clarity with a sense of urgency and hope. Frances Seymour argues for pragmatic optimism, collective responsibility, and solidarity with those most directly affected by climate impacts.

Conclusion

This episode serves as an accessible primer on the political and policy landscape of COP21. It underlines the complexity and progress in climate negotiations—especially regarding tropical forests—and provides realistic, cautiously optimistic expectations for the summit and the broader fight against climate change.