The CGD Podcast: "What to Make of the Warsaw COP – Michele de Nevers"

Date: November 7, 2013
Host: Lawrence MacDonald, Center for Global Development
Guest: Michele de Nevers, Senior Associate, CGD

Episode Overview

In this episode, Lawrence MacDonald engages Michele de Nevers—an expert in environmental policy and former World Bank climate lead—in a candid discussion about the significance and limitations of the 19th Conference of the Parties (COP19) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Warsaw. They critically assess the history, process, and future prospects of global climate negotiations, especially as they affect developing countries, and explore alternative routes to meaningful climate action.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. 19 Years of Negotiations: Progress or Stagnation?

• Setting the Scene: COP19 represents almost two decades of annual negotiations under the UNFCCC.
• De Nevers' Perspective: The duration signals both the ongoing importance of climate change—especially for developing countries—and the slow progress towards a binding global treaty.
  • Quote: “We're not really getting very far with the UN process...if it's been going on for 19 years and we don't have a legally binding treaty...what do we really think about this process?” (01:00, B)

2. Cycles of High Expectations and Disappointment

• Historical High Points: Key moments like the Kyoto Protocol, Bali (2007), and Copenhagen (2009) raised hopes for breakthroughs.
• Copenhagen Disappointment: Elevated expectations led to disproportionate feelings of failure.
  • Quote: “Copenhagen was unfairly penalized for the height of those expectations...had expectations been more realistic, I think people might have felt less of a sense of failure.” (02:17, B)
• Future Focus: Attention now shifts to the 2015 Paris COP, where nations are to set targets for 2020—yet this too pushes decisions into the future.

3. UNFCCC’s Role: Still Relevant, But Is It Effective?

• Question Raised: Can the current UNFCCC process deliver a real solution?
• Fading Interest: Climate experts pay less attention post-Copenhagen, questioning whether this process can work.

4. Why Climate Change Still Matters for Development

• Energy Needs in the Developing World:
  • For growth, developing nations require much more energy—both to raise living standards and power economic expansion.
  • Quote: “For developing countries to grow, they need huge increases in their ability to have energy for their growth...if we don't come up with low carbon or...zero carbon energy for those countries, their growth will be stunted...” (04:34–05:37, B)
  • Memorable Moment: Reference to Todd Moss’s blog comparing refrigerator energy use to household consumption in Africa—underscoring energy poverty (05:37, A).
• Climate Vulnerability: Poorest countries are least responsible for emissions but most at risk from climate impacts.

5. Alternative Paths: Coalitions Beyond the UNFCCC

• Critique of Multilateral Negotiations: De Nevers and MacDonald note skepticism about effectiveness of consensus-driven processes among 190+ countries.
  • Quote: “Many people...doubt...a big meeting with representatives from 190plus countries...is the right approach to that solution.” (07:41, B)
• Proposed Alternatives:
  • G20 and Major Economies Forum: Smaller groups of major emitters acting decisively (07:55, B).
  • Business and City Leadership: “C20” (G20 countries), “C30” (global multinationals), and “C40” (cities taking concrete climate actions) may be more nimble and effective than the unwieldy UN process.
    • Quote: “If you look at where the solutions need to take place, they don't all take place at...national governments. They take place in places like New York City...or companies like Unilever and others...” (09:47–10:54, B)
  • Mixed Coalitions: Draw on lessons from non-climate successes (e.g., landmine bans, polio eradication), championing “coalitions of the willing and able” (11:20, B).
    • Quote: “It needs to be not just coalitions of the willing...but coalitions of the willing and able.” (11:20, B)

6. U.S. and China: "C2" and Global Climate Leadership

• Major Emitters: U.S. and China dominate emissions (“the C2”).
• Potential & Limitations: The U.S. is “able but unwilling” due to political gridlock, despite resources and technology.
  • Quote: “I think the US is able but unwilling, highly able, hugely able.” (11:42, B)

7. The COP as Networking Platform More Than Decision-making Forum

• Main Activity: Most meaningful exchanges occur in hallways, not in official negotiations.
  • Quote: “Some people characterize it as an opportunity for speeches and networking and that's pretty much true.” (12:21, B)
• Per Diem Critique: Commentary on the per diems as an ongoing COP incentive (12:46, A; 12:52, B)—a jab at COP “jamboree” culture.
• Example of Practical Work: CGD's Europe team, led by Owen Barder, uses COP to consult on integrating developing countries into the EU Emissions Trading Scheme—an example of seeking concrete bilateral progress outside the formal process (13:11, B).

8. Small Bright Spots Amid Modest Progress

• CDI Environmental Component: The Center’s Commitment to Development Index (CDI) shows the environment component improving over time—though whether this reflects actual policy shifts is debated (13:51, A).
  • Quote: “…the environment component within the seven components of the CDI as one of the few that has shown some significant improvement over time…” (13:51, A)
• Value of Experience: Lawrence MacDonald closes by appreciating Michele’s deep perspective and tireless work in the field.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We're not really getting very far with the UN process...if it's been going on for 19 years and we don't have a legally binding treaty...” (01:00, B)
• “Copenhagen was unfairly penalized for the height of those expectations...” (02:17, B)
• On energy poverty: “[Todd Moss] compared the energy consumption of his refrigerator to average Household energy consumption across Africa. And...the average household consumption [doesn’t] remotely approach...his refrigerator.” (05:37, A)
• “It needs to be not just coalitions of the willing...but coalitions of the willing and able.” (11:20, B)
• “I think the US is able but unwilling, highly able, hugely able.” (11:42, B)
• “Some people characterize it as an opportunity for speeches and networking and that's pretty much true.” (12:21, B)
• On per diems: “I’ve heard it said by some people that it’s really all about the per diems that's keeping this jamboree going.” (12:46, A)
• “COP as platform for practical engagement”—CGD using Warsaw COP to gather feedback on emissions trading (13:11, B)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:09–01:00 — Introduction & COP19 background
• 01:00–03:26 — Reflections on 19 years of COPs, milestones, and disappointments
• 04:34–06:13 — Why climate change matters to developing countries: Energy needs and vulnerability
• 07:41–10:54 — Limitations of UN process; alternatives like G20/C30/C40; business/city leadership
• 11:20–12:02 — Mixed coalitions, coalition of the willing and able
• 11:42–12:08 — U.S. capability vs. political will
• 12:21–13:11 — COP as a networking event vs. formal negotiation
• 13:11–13:51 — Example: CGD’s EU Emissions Scheme ideas discussion at COP
• 13:51–15:00 — Commitment to Development Index; closing reflections

Takeaways

• The UNFCCC/COP process has struggled to deliver truly binding, impactful agreements, largely due to its scale and consensus requirements.
• Climate change remains critically important for development—both in terms of energy access and climate vulnerability.
• Alternative coalitions (of countries, businesses, cities) are emerging as promising pathways where traditional multilateral processes stall.
• The U.S. possesses the resources but currently lacks the political will to lead.
• While the main action at COPs often happens outside formal negotiations, such forums remain valuable for catalyzing new ideas and smaller-scale coalitions.
• Measurable progress (as per CGD's own metrics) remains limited but not absent, offering a sliver of optimism.

Host: Lawrence MacDonald
Guest: Michele de Nevers
Find them on Twitter: @michelledenevers, @MacDonaldDC
Podcast: The CGD Podcast / Global Prosperity Wonkcast