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And so Don Lemon here, playing political campaign manager for the entire Democrat Party publicly, basically was the shot in the dark, where all of a sudden Democrats said, oh, yeah, you're right. And next thing you know, Biden is traveling to Kenosha, and all of a sudden the peaceful protests went to. Actually, all the destruction is Donald Trump's fault like that. He's also rolling out major national TV ads on this theme, part of the largest ever for his campaign, a $45 million ad spend to re establish himself as the law and order candidate, which is just laughable. And this is all because the Democrats called the riots and the arson and the terrorism peaceful protests throughout the entire months of July and August. Number seven, incumbent. If you're an incumbent, you're very hard to beat. This is historically an insurmountable advantage. There's only been two incumbents that have lost since 1980, and that is Jimmy Carter and George H.W. bush, both for different reasons. The one that really lost as a true incumbent would be Jimmy Carter, George H.W. bush was of course an incumbent, but there were two extenuating circumstances. He was an incumbent after serving as eight years as Vice president. So people were just ready for a party switch. And also, Ross Perot really chiseled a lot of votes away from George H.W. bush running for reelection in 1992. Trump is able to use his incumbency to his political advantage perhaps better than almost anyone else I think, in the modern political era. For example, have his RNC renomination speech on the White House lawn, pardoning someone during the RNC and doing a naturalization ceremony from the White House, holding campaign rallies in front of Air Force One, securing once in a generation peace deals in the Oval Office, while Joe Biden is in his basement holding his press conference from the James Brady Briefing Room in the White House. And like I said earlier, the President has access to narrative setting, message. So because of this, President Donald Trump is able to actually do things, not just talk about things. Vice President Biden is unable to do things. So there are three ways to grade candidates. There's what you did, what you're doing, what you're going to do. Only an incumbent is able to actually play in that middle bracket, that second bucket. Joe Biden can't actually talk about what he's doing because he's a challenger. That's why beating an incumbent is so hard, because you're able to say, here's what I did, here's what I'm doing. What, here's what I'm going to do. Where Joe Biden can only say, here's what I did, here's what I'm going to do. And what he did actually contradicts what he's going to do. And actually he didn't do anything except bad things. And no one actually believes what he's going to do. So every day, President Donald Trump can actually use the office of the presidency to build goodwill amongst the American population. He can use the office of the presidency to actually build coalitions of political support. He can use the office of the presidency to be able to broaden his appeal to likely voters. He could take advantage of traveling around the country. He could take advantage of the fact that he has taxpayer funded travel. And some people say, well, that's not right. Well, every incumbent president has this. You have the biggest plane, you got Secret Service production, and, and you could go do official visits and people might interpret it politically. You also take advantage of the fact that The Dow hit 29,000 points today and take credit for it. So any good thing that happens in the country an incumbent can take credit for. The challenge is when things aren't going well, you have to take responsibility for it. Key number eight on how to predict a president more campaign stops. No one talks about this. Very few people do. I believe whoever does more campaign stops generally wins. This is obvious that Trump is winning here. He did more campaign stops than Hillary. In fact, it was 4 to 1. While Joe Biden was in Wilmington, Delaware today, in his basement, Donald Trump was in Wilmington, North Carolina, campaigning. President Donald Trump did five different campaign stops while Joe Biden avoided his own convention. Joe Biden is literally playing follow the leader right now. After the dnc. While pundits did a victory lap on his failing convention, Biden, Joe Biden released a statement saying he was content to stay in his basement for the rest of the campaign and not have any stops. Now, after seeing the incredible and monumental success of the RNC and the optics, all of a sudden Joe Biden is now emerging from his basement. Here's the brilliance. What President Donald Trump was able to do by having multiple campaign stops and actually campaigning around the country and communicating to voters is that he actually forced a campaign. What was once a referendum on President Donald Trump is now Biden versus Trump. That's a completely different landscape politically to be playing on. So Joe Biden is visiting Wisconsin tomorrow for the first time in three years. Here's a very simple question. Why is Joe Biden able to visit Kenosha tomorrow but he wasn't able to do his Democrat convention in Wisconsin two weeks ago? What's different? The difference is the poll numbers. It's not the virus, which he might say. Well, that's a serious question that Joe Biden should have to ask from reporters. Say, well, welcome to Kenosha. Why are you here now? Why didn't you come to your convention two weeks ago? Why didn't you actually come to your nominating convention? The reason is that the polls are tightening and he knows it and the enthusiasm is on President Donald Trump's side and they're freaking out in the Biden campaign. As you guys know, paying out of your own pocket for gear that you need to do your job is pretty awful. 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If you've got a military or first Responder background, visit govx.com that's govx.com and sign up for free for instant access to tons of deals and a community that honors your service. It's promo code Kirk for $15 off first orders of $50 or more. This is a terrific service for those of us that have served our country. Gov x.com g o v x.com use that promo code k I r k key number nine and how to accurately Predict a Presidential Winner I have a theory that the more exciting candidate wins then actually the boring candidate traditionally loses. Let's actually work backwards. President Obama was way more exciting than Mitt Romney and John McCain in 2012 and 2008. George W. Bush was far more exciting than John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. Bill Clinton was way more exciting in 96 and way more exciting in 92. Ronald Reagan was far more exciting in 84 and in 80. I can go backwards in time in the 1960 election of Richard Nixon versus John JFK. JFK was way more exciting than Richard Nixon. Far more exciting. So Richard Nixon did eventually win the presidency in 1968. Do you know why Richard Nixon actually ended up winning the presidency in 1968? Because of the riots. There was a huge issue in the country in 1968 with social unrest. Richard Nixon was actually former Vice President under Dwight D. Eisenhower and former Governor of California. Richard Nixon was a power hungry politician, won in 68, won even more convincingly in 1972. His vice president, Spiro Agnew resigned. Gerald Ford, who I believe was Majority Leader at the time. Is that right? I think he was speaker of the House, Minority Leader, not Majority Leader. He was Minority Leader, ended up becoming Vice President of the United States and then Richard Nixon resigned and then Gerald Ford ended up becoming the only unelected President in American history. And do you know who the Chief of staff to Gerald Ford was? Dick Cheney. It's an interesting little factoid. And then in 1976 actually Ronald Reagan challenged Jerry Ford to the nomination in 1976 unsuccessfully. And then Ronald Reagan won the nomination in 1980 and beat Jeremy Carter, the incumbent. And this also applies to primaries. But we're not going to get too much into this. JFK beat Lyndon Baines Johnson in the 1960 primary. We can go into that. But I don't want to get too much into primaries. But the exciting candidate usually wins. Donald Trump is far more excited than Joe Biden, let me tell you that. Far more interesting. Number 10 key and please email us your questions. Freedom charliekirk.com, freedomarliekirk.com and if I select your question, you guys win a signed copy of the MAGA doctrine. Number 10 Be on the right side of the unexpected. This is an easy way of saying it's better to be lucky than good. Almost always there is an October surprise. Be on the right side of that October surprise, whatever that might be right now. President Donald Trump was right on the July and August surprise, which was the endless riots on the streets of America. There wasn't unexpected to me. I know the riot. I know the, the base of the Democrat Party. I know the base of the arsonist left. So whatever ends up happening in the month of October, it might be a foreign conflict. I don't even want to speculate what it is because it's probably going to be a tragedy. If President Donald Trump is on the right side of that surprise, he will see the polling reflect that. You want to be on the correct side of the unexpected story. Biden for a couple months was on the right side of the virus and the lockdown story. So you put all those 10 things together. Right side of the unexpected story. The more exciting candidate, more campaign stops, the incumbency advantage, the top three issues and how do they line up with what the people want and the stances that people are taking. Social media velocity, which very few people talk about and of course, which we talk about. Yard signs matter. And branding matters. Organic branding really, really matters. Grassroots energy and volunteers. Who has more volunteers? Who has more people showing up in the streets and knocking on doors? Enthusiasm. And finally, of course, the trends. Trends do matter. And things can get very hot in the last 20 days of a campaign. Remember that things can change all suddenly as soon as people see the two candidates juxtaposed. Now you might see, well, Charlie, debates aren't on there. I think debates do matter. I would have had a longer list to this. I am a believer that debates actually do move public opinion and people watch them. And I think these are Gonna be some of the most watched debates ever in the history of American politics. But before I get to that, here's what I actually think President Donald Trump has to pivot on. And usually pivot is a bad term. I think that President Donald Trump has to have the next chess move. I think President Trump can checkmate Joe Biden. After Joe Biden fell into the riots and arson trap by doing nothing for six weeks, now Joe Biden's like, no, no, I'm actually the law and ordered candidate. Now here's what President Trump has to do. Call Joe Biden what he is. Lockdown Biden. The lockdowns are the next big issue that no one is talking about. You can see this in the moral outrage that Democrats have in San Francisco of Nancy Pelosi walking into the hair salon she said she was set up, even though the evidence shows it was not a setup at all whatsoever. Lockdown. Biden will lose the election. If Joe Biden's on the side of arson and rioting and looters out of the swing voters remaining in America. They want the economy reopened. They want their lives back. And by the way, if Nancy Pelosi can go to a hair salon, we can vote in person. I was the first person to tweet that, by the way. Everyone's been repeating over the last 24 hours. Just got to have a little bit of a copyright here. And by the way, I don't mind. It's open source, as long as it's a good take. I don't mind if anyone says it. Let's get to some of your questions. Freedom@charliekirk.com, freedomarliekirk.com hello, my name is Susan. Hi, Susan. And my question is, what happens in the event Donald Trump wins but Biden does not concede? It doesn't matter. It does not take a concession. The Electoral College will elect President Donald Trump. They're going to go to the streets, try to get violent. This is why President Donald Trump needs to understand the channels of communication to be able to mobilize the National Guard. Susan, you win a signed copy of the New York Times bestseller, the MAGA Doctrine. Send in your questions, everybody. What is the best response as a black man to my black peers when they ask me, what is President Trump's black agenda? Please help huge Trump supporter try to convince black people he's the guy for 2020. Number one, he stands for educational choice. He believes that all Americans, including minority and black Americans, should have the freedom to be able to send your kid to a better school. If you currently go to a failing school, this school. This issue disproportionately affects black America. That's number one. Number two, President Donald Trump delivered more results for the black community than than Democrats ever have. Despite not getting political votes or support from the black community, he went out of his way to go deliver results to a community that has insulted him, scorned him, persecuted him, went up against him. Why did President Trump do that? Because President Donald Trump is a president for all Americans, not just a select few, not just the elites. If you want law and order, if you want the arson and the crime to stop, President Donald Trump is your guy. If you want jobs and manufacturing to come back to this country, President Donald Trump is your guy. The black agenda for Donald Trump is very simple. I'm gonna restrict immigration and get more black people in the workforce. I'm gonna make America the drugstore of the world. We're gonna make vitamin C, penicillin, Advil and essential pharmaceuticals again in our country here. We're gonna employ black America and all Americans to help do that. I'm going to get the criminals and the thugs and the vigilantes that are on the streets of inner city black America in prison and make sure that they don't have same day bail for first degree murder like they do in the streets of Chicago. President Donald Trump's black agenda is also about educational choice and family formation. The democrats have had 45 years of absolute and total political monopoly, total political control. Explain to me why any Democrat, why any black person would go vote for a Democrat right now. I can't see a reason. They've destroyed Chicago, they destroy Atlanta, they destroy Philadelphia, they destroyed Detroit, they've destroyed New York City right now. And one of the unspoken stories happening in America is the death of New York City. New York City is crumbling before us right now and Mayor Bill de Blasio is keeping restaurants shut down. He is keeping schools closed. It is the crushing of a once great American city all because of Democrats. And thanks for your question. Brian G. You win a signed copy of the New York Times bestseller the MAGA Doctrine. Here's the next question. Hi Charlie, My question is this. Why are the Democrats and media saying all the troubles are happening under President Donald Trump, but it's in Democrat run cities and states? I just went through this. Lastly, why won't they denounce Blmntifa for what they're doing? Thanks, Kenny. Well, Kenny, you win a signed copy of the MAGA Doctrine. Make sure you email me to Redeem it. And by the way, again, we are sending out 10 signed copies of the MAGA doctrine to anyone who subscribes to us. If you're watching on Facebook, there's that link right now. Just press that subscribe button, press that button opens up in your phone. Press that subscribe button. Email us freedom charliekirk.com freedom charliekirk.com and if you want to contact us, all the emails I glance at, I take an eye of eyes@freedom charliekirk.com? comments, feedback, you name it. Freedomarliekirk.com, freedomarlick.com Kenny to answer the question, look, the base of the Democrat Party is BLM Incorporated. The base is antifa. The base is lawlessness and the base is arson. They don't want to offend their base. Our base are normal, decent, reasonable people. And so we don't want to lose votes but by just doing what we believe in and not defecting against our voters, we don't lose votes. And so BLM and Antifa, they are the enforcement wing of the Democrat Party. Antifa is the paramilitary arm of the Democrat Party. They just are. It is the unspoken rule that if you do not elect Joe Biden, we are going to go to the streets. This is Joe Biden's form of a hostage situation in our country. Basically saying if you do not support us, we, we are going to continue this political extortion and this political attack in the streets. And this is one of the most evil things you can possibly do to tell a society that it is going to continue to burn unless you give us power. It is no different than waterboarding an entire society. And Joe Biden basically says, you elect me, don't worry, I'll get these protests over with. And some people are actually. And by the way, we got a great email the other day. I don't know who sent it. Maybe you're watching right now. It was a phenomenal email. I completely forgot about it. Forgot about the name, not forgot about what he said, where he said something really honest where he said, charlie, I think they're right when they say the riots are gonna stop if Joe Biden wins. I actually agree with that. I think the riots will stop if Joe Biden wins. I think that's exactly the point is that what they're saying is actually true is that this is not actually a baseless extortion attempt that they will turn off the riot switch if they win. Next question here we get a lot of mail in voting questions, by the way, we have A great podcast with Tom Fitton coming up that will answer all of your mail in questions. Email us right now. Freedom charliekirk.com what do you do when you're surrounded by liberals? You mentioned yard signs and bumper stickers. What advice do you have for someone that cannot share their views? I've already had a Gaston flag cut down from my flag pole. Look, I do not envy you. One of the greatest blessings that God has given me. I can speak my mind every single day. I can say what I believe. I can do it publicly. I can inspire other people. My best opinion is this, Jesse. And thank you for that question. And I hope that you don't get doxed because you just got your question answered here on the Charlie Kirk Show. You get a signed copy the MAGA doctrine. Speak as loudly and confidently as you can to voice truth without compromising the safety of your family. I totally get it that if you're in downtown Portland or if you're in New York City, you cannot wave a Trump flag. I get it. However, that just kind of shows the tyranny that exists in our country. It is a soft form of tyranny. Hi Charlie. I'm sure reparations will be a question for the debates. If so, how does President Donald Trump answer David B. It's a great question, David. In fact, I might actually tell the President this in my next conversation with him. I'm actually coming up with a debate prep document for the president of five trap questions I think they're going to pin on him and how I would answer it if I were to believe that, you know, it would actually, you know, the president's amazing and we have a great relationship. So here's how I'd answer this. President Donald Trump said, hey, look, I'm not a big fan of reparations and blaming people based on things they didn't do. But if the Democrat Party is so focused on reparations, let's start with the history of their party. Why doesn't the Democrat Party pay the reparations opposing the 13th, 14th and 15th amendment? The Democrat Party owned the slaves. Democrat parties, the party of kkk. The the Democrat Party is the party of racism. Why doesn't Joe Biden pay reparations for being best friends with bitter segregationists? Why doesn't Joe Biden, if he can remember because he doesn't have a great memory. Why doesn't he ask his vice presidential nominee, his best friend, Senator Harris, his new best friend, former enemy, what she thought of his busing strategy when that little girl was her when she had to actually get bused. Why isn't Joe Biden. Here's an idea. Why doesn't Hunter Biden, because he has all the money, because he sold this out to China, pay the reparations that the Democrat Party should pay? We, as the Republicans have nothing to apologize for. We're the party that freed the slaves, passed the 13th, 14th, 15th amendment, women's suffrage. We're the part of the Civil Rights act, black liberation. We don't care about the color of the skin. We care about your values. So if you guys want to have reparations, I'm not paying it. Republican Party's not paying it. The Democrat Party should pay it. That's how President Donald Trump should answer a question. What reparations? In the upcoming debate. Next question. Hey, Charlie, huge fan for all you do. Do you think Donald Trump can Win Maine in 2020? Yes, I love Maine. Maine is one of my favorite states in the entire country. I love all states equally, unless you're from New York. Kidding. Ha ha. But I love Maine. Some of the toughest people in the country, some of the best, most ethical people and the beat, the least appreciated people. And they're good lobstermen. I love the state of Maine. I really do. And I think Donald Trump can definitely win the 2nd congressional district in Maine. And I think he can win all of Maine. Please keep your questions coming. Freedomarlicirk.com Freedom charliekirk.com Here's one from Carl. We got a lot of questions from people named Carl. Hey, Charlie, what do you think will happen in the vice presidential debates? Thanks so much. Well, Carl, you win a signed copy of the New York Times bestseller the MAGA Doctrine. The VP debates are actually gonna be some of the most important vice presidential debates in American history. Mike Pence versus Kamala Harris. Senator Harris is actually going to be kind of running as a co president. It's not just a traditional vice presidential debate. This is going to be more important than ever before. And I think Mike Pence, some people call him the Silver Fox, is going to do very, very well. Mike Pence has been phenomenal lately. He was great on Fox News. I think the more Mike Pence, the better. I think Mike Pence needs to be deployed to congressional districts all across the country, these swing areas, these counties that really make a difference. Hey, guys, I encourage you to get involved with TurningPoint USA, tpusa.com, check out our website, get involved for the fight for freedom and liberty@tpusa.com, tpusa.com email us your questions as always at freedom charliekirk.com freedom@charliekirk.com and consider supporting us. We are doing two podcasts a day. I'm traveling the country. We have the best production team you could possibly imagine, the best fact finding team. We are finding the stories that matter. We're explaining the issues. We go a level deeper, but we give you the history and the philosophy and we give you an analysis. These 10 things can predict a winner. In fact, they're original here on the Charlie Kirk Show. They always work for me. Never, never let me down. I bet you guys can find who's going to win this race based on these 10 things. And I think the harder we work, the more we volunteer, the more we're involved. Things are constantly moving. It is not a snapshot in time. It is instead a motion picture all happening in front of us. Consider supporting us. Charliekirk.com support email me as always, freedom charliekirk.com thank you guys so much for watching. See you soon.