The Charlie Kirk Show
Episode Title: "A Surprise Christmas Gift for the Economy?"
Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Charlie Kirk
Co-hosts/Contributors: Andrew Colvett, Blake
Guests: Stephen Moore (Unleash Prosperity, former Trump economic advisor), Bhatia Ungar Sargon (NewsNation host)
Episode Overview
This episode delves into unexpectedly positive economic news—specifically, robust GDP growth numbers for Q3 2025—and explores what this might mean for the U.S. economy, the upcoming year, and the political landscape as the 2026 elections loom. The hosts and guests examine why economic perceptions diverge from the data, the persistent challenges surrounding housing and inflation, and Trump's influence on economic policy and narrative. In the second half, the conversation pivots to cultural and political debates within the conservative movement, notably coalition-building, Israel, and current strains of antisemitism, featuring a thoughtful discussion with Bhatia Ungar Sargon. Throughout, the tone combines optimism, sharp critique of mainstream narratives, and a spirit of open debate.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Surprise Q3 GDP Growth: "Christmas Present" for the Economy
- 4.3% Q3 GDP Growth: This figure notably outpaces expectations (forecasted around 3.3%) and is seen by Trump supporters as a validation of pro-growth policies.
- Stephen Moore calls the number "a solid 8 or 9 out of 10" and asserts the economy is "super bullish" (01:43).
- The Debt Conversation: Moore points out that economic growth above 3.5% allows GDP to outpace debt growth, mitigating national debt concerns.
- Lagging Effects of Trump Bills: Moore explains that many tax cuts from Trump-era policies will begin to appear in Americans’ paychecks from January 2026, predicting a speed-up in the economy (01:43–02:43).
"Once you get above three and a half percent economic growth, then the economy grows faster than the debt grows."
— Stephen Moore (01:43)
2. Public Perception vs. Economic Data
- "The Vibe Session": Despite positive numbers, approximately half of Americans think the economy isn't doing well—a phenomenon dubbed the "vibe session" (04:43).
- Generational Perspective: Moore contrasts current economic "angst," especially among young people, with early 1980s stagflation: "They can't put this in any kind of perspective" (05:10).
- Housing Affordability:
- Core Issues Identified: High prices due to local restrictions on new building and capital gains taxes which discourage selling homes (06:24).
- Immigration Debate: Moore critiques blaming immigrants, observing "It's scapegoating... because actually immigrants build housing" (06:24).
"If you don't have an increase in supply, then the price of something is going to go up."
— Stephen Moore (06:24)
3. Tariffs, Trade Policy, and Economic Forecasting
- Trump’s Trade Agenda: Trump's tariff policies are credited for reducing the trade deficit, contributing to strong GDP growth. Kevin Hassett is cited as noting that 1.5% of the 4.3% GDP growth comes from this effect (08:20).
- Critique of Economists: Moore suggests "Trump Derangement Syndrome" leads many professional economists to consistently underestimate positive economic trends under Trump (09:13).
"Professional economists probably should turn their PhDs back in and say, we don't know what we're talking about, because they are consistently wrong."
— Stephen Moore (09:13)
4. Inflation, Cost of Living, and Everyday Experience
- Inflation Details:
- Official inflation rates are "headed down to 2% or less" (03:41), according to Moore.
- Persistent Grocery Price Pain: Listeners and Moore’s own family “feel the pain” at the grocery store, specifically with increased beef prices, but Moore notes other items (e.g., pork, electronics, air travel) have decreased (12:33).
- Energy Prices: Gas prices are falling nationwide, though remain structurally high in states like California due to local policies (13:39–14:11).
"I feel your pain, folks... But if you look overall at the economy... the inflation rate is headed in the right direction."
— Stephen Moore (12:33)
5. Red vs Blue State Economics
- Cost of Living: Nine out of ten states with the highest cost of living are “blue states,” attributed to "liberal Democrats cause[ing] shortages of everything because of their stupid policies. High taxes, high regulations..." (14:18).
- Relocation Advice: Move to red states like Florida, Texas, Alabama, or Utah for lower prices (14:18).
6. Mortgage and Housing Solutions
- Against 50-Year Mortgages: Moore dismisses ultra-long-term mortgages, advocating for lowering mortgage rates by controlling inflation instead (15:06).
"The best way to bring the price of housing down is to bring the mortgage rate down. And the way you bring the mortgage rate down is bringing the inflation rate down, which Trump is doing."
— Stephen Moore (15:06)
7. Remembering Charlie Kirk and Legacy
- Stephen Moore’s Reflections: Nostalgic recounting of first meetings and admiration for Kirk's drive and developing influence (15:30–16:47).
- Cultural References: Joking and reminiscing about Christmas movies and football offer touches of warmth and personal connection.
"He knew what he wanted to do. ... I really believe Charlie Kirk was on path to someday be president, United States."
— Stephen Moore (15:30)
[19:32] Major Segment: Bhatia Ungar Sargon on Conservatism, Coalition, and Israel
8. Amfest, Debate, and Conservative Coalition
- Bhatia’s Emotional Tribute: She shares how much Charlie meant to her and values how the America Fest event allowed for open debate and airing differences—"more unites us than divides us as Americans" (19:32).
- Debating Israel and the Right’s Future:
- Cites the airing of “family business” at Amfest, noting robust and sometimes fraught debate around Israel and U.S. foreign policy (22:10).
- JD Vance and Antisemitism:
- Bhatia voices reservations about anointing JD Vance for GOP leadership due to associations with controversial figures and rhetoric (23:09).
- She underscores the importance of clear, public disavowals of antisemitism and dangerous historical revisionism.
"Leadership is about having principles and standing up for them, no matter the blowback, not being afraid of offending actual Nazis."
— Bhatia Ungar Sargon (23:09)
9. Responding to Rising Extremism and Coalition Management
- On the "Vibe" Around Antisemitism: Bhatia expresses concern that certain podcasters questioning Hitler’s villainy frighten and alienate Jewish Americans (24:24, 28:21).
- Movement Strategy: Blake posits that the right must define itself by “good affirmations” and positive vision, not just disavowals (28:41).
"If Vice President Vance is setting a positive example... he can shape the movement in a good direction. ... Instead of having to go around playing police and disavowing people, what you are avowing is going to make people into something better."
— Blake (28:41)
10. Israel, Ukraine, and Moral Lobbying
- Pro-Israel Pressure and Moral Dilemmas: Andrew discusses the tension some conservative gentiles feel about perceived “moral blackmail” from pro-Israel advocates (34:07).
- Bhatia’s Analogy With Ukraine: She compares how extreme lobbying tactics are also present in the Ukraine debate, but maintains individuals must act on conscience, not peer pressure (34:27):
"The idea that I would allow that to influence my view would make me an unserious person. ... I answer to my God. I have to face myself in the mirror."
— Bhatia Ungar Sargon (34:27)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Economic Mood:
"I don't quite understand why... about half Americans think the economy is not doing well... it is."
— Stephen Moore (03:41) - On Housing Fixes:
"Get rid of the capital gains tax on housing when it's sold. And if you do that, you'll have an increase in supply and prices will come down."
— Stephen Moore (06:24) - Playful Banter:
"My wife says, you know, she goes to the grocery store, she comes back really angry about the price of steak... But... pork chops are way down in price."
— Stephen Moore (12:33) - Remembrance:
"I think about him every single day. ... The most important thing is what Charlie really stood for: the view that more unites us than divides us as Americans."
— Bhatia Ungar Sargon (19:32) - On Navigating Political Extremes:
"It's not just Jewish Americans. I think every American should feel worried about this question of whether Hitler was truly the [villain]."
— Bhatia Ungar Sargon (28:21)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:09 - Stephen Moore joins to analyze Q3 GDP growth
- 03:41 - Discussion of inflation numbers and economic perceptions
- 05:10 - Historical context for young workers’ challenges
- 06:24 - Breakdown of causes for high housing prices
- 08:20 - Trump’s trade policy and its economic impact
- 09:13 - Critique of mainstream economists’ forecasting
- 12:33 - Everyday inflation pain points for consumers
- 14:18 - Red vs blue state cost of living differences
- 15:06 - Moore's stance on 50-year mortgages and housing
- 19:32 - Bhatia Ungar Sargon reflects on Charlie Kirk, Amfest, and conservative coalition
- 23:09 - Bhatia questions the readiness to back JD Vance amid antisemitism concerns
- 28:41 - Blake and Bhatia discuss coalition-building and affirmational politics
- 34:27 - Analogy between Israel/Ukraine lobbying and standing by personal convictions
Episode Tone & Language
- Direct and Unapologetic: The hosts and guests maintain a confidently conservative, no-holds-barred tone.
- Camaraderie and Emotion: Personal reminiscences about Charlie Kirk and playful Christmas banter add warmth.
- Unifying Yet Candid: The panel stresses the need for truthful debate and coalition-building, even while acknowledging deep divides.
- Highly Critical of Mainstream Narratives: Consistent skepticism about economists, the media, and blue state policies.
Summary
This episode offers a spirited, detail-rich look at surprisingly strong economic data—a "Christmas gift" for the Trump team—and the deeper debates it triggers in U.S. politics and conservative identity. Practical concerns (inflation, housing, jobs) are weighed alongside perceptions and policy solutions. The conversation then broadens to larger questions of coalition, Israel, antisemitism, and the legacy of Charlie Kirk, striking a balance between optimism, critique, and calls for ideological clarity.