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Charlie Kirk
Hey, everybody. Today on the Charlie Kirk show, we start with a California poll analysis with Richard Barris from People's Pundit. And then we get an update from the man himself, Larry Elder, who might be the next governor of California. If you want to support our program, you could do so@charliekirk.com support that's charliekirk.com support I want to thank George for supporting our program. Thank you for getting behind us. I want to thank Michael for for supporting our program. Thank you so much. I want to thank Anna from Alabama for supporting our program. Thank you, John from Destin, Florida, for supporting us. Thank you, Jerry from Alabama for supporting us. Thank you, John from Hammond, Wisconsin, for supporting us. Thank you. And Eric From Santa Cruz, California, for your monthly support. CharlieKirk.com support if you want to email me, you could do that first. Freedomarliekirk.com, get involved right now with Turning Point USA, where we play offense with a sense of urgency to win the American culture war. You can go to tpusa.com, that's tpusa.com to get engaged and get involved with the work that we are doing@tpusa.com Larry Elder is here. Richard Barris with a poll update. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
Larry Elder
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Larry Elder
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Charlie Kirk
ExpressVPN.comExpress/Charlie hey, everybody. Welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk show with us today. He's a friend of mine and he's rarely ever wrong. In fact, we had him coming on our program leading up to the election and he got almost all of his predictions correctly. Richard Barris from the People's Pundit. And also we had you on for the Georgia thing and you were the one that early said, hey, we got a problem In Georgia and you were right. So, so we're gonna hear to talk about California polls. And so. All right, Richard, let's cut through all of the nonsense. Yes. The way it works in California, for all of our friends in Maine and Massachusetts and Florida and South Carolina, it's a two part question, yes or no recall Gavin Newsom. And if yes, then who? Let's start with the yes or no. Do you think that the yeses are going to outnumber the nos?
Richard Barris
Yeah, so we polled it a couple weeks back and we had no ahead by a little bit, Charlie. But let me leave this with you. The caveat here is that I thought my share of the, you know, this part of polling, I thought my share of the white vote was a little bit high. California is usually 45, 50% tops. And did see other pollsters that had him in the 60s. If you look at who is voting right now, this is why Democrats are nervous. The electorate is very white and it's, and it's much older. So if, if the electorate and we had them at 50, we had whites at 55, but we still had the age breakdown to be pretty young. So that could, a two point advantage could easily be swamped by a demographic difference like that. The problem Newsom has, and I was just saying this before, he needs white liberals and Asian voters to come out and they are the least likely to want to vote. Whites were over 80% certain to vote when we polled them and Asian voters were in the 50s. So I mean it really, it goes to show you a close race can turn into a nail biter either way. It really can.
Charlie Kirk
So you think this is still really tight? Gavin is kind of already sort of saying the polls are showing him with big separation, 10 point lead, he's going to defeat this recall. Are you seeing that?
Richard Barris
You know, I'm not, I'm not seeing that yet. Is it, is it possible toward the end California groups together a little bit? I suppose it is. But again, the X factor really is that the most likely somebody is to vote, the more likely they are to vote against him. So we looked at the entire register voter universe too, and Gavin Newsom would survive by probably 10 or 12 points if he got a typical turnout. That's the problem. We didn't see that it was going to be a typical turnout. I can't even tell you guys how many people we spoke to and they didn't even really know there was an election. I'm not kidding. So as much hype as there has been, that's why I mean, I do give the possibility that he feels a little bit better. I give it some credence because he's spending an awful lot of money now. And they did that because they knew they were in trouble. He cannot count on Hispanics to come out like a presidential election or a typical governor gubernatorial race. They don't like him. I mean, that's just the reality. He needs his white liberal base, which is the Bay Area, and he needs those Asian voters that have slid a little bit actually in the last two years. But in the end, when we pressed them, they said, well, if I go and vote, I'll vote to keep him. So they're the most loyal base that he has. But if you go throughout the Central Valley, Southern California, he's performing very weak there. I mean, people should understand. And we got Virginia around the corner. If Gavin Newsom Even survived by 10 points, it's a flashing red light for Democrats. He's gonna talk up a 10 point win. He should survive this recall by 30, 35 points. I mean, this is a very blue state. So in Virginia, you just can't, you cannot afford a 20 point slide if you're a Democrat in Virginia. Yes.
Charlie Kirk
I was going to ask you regionally. So basically the base for Gavin is that whole Bay Area, right? It's San Jose, it's Oakland, it's downtown San Francisco. But as soon as you start to get into Stockton and you get into Modesto and you get into Fresno and you get into Bakersfield, that kind of Central Valley corridor, that could screw up some of the polling. Am I right, Richard? I mean, they could run up the score Almost, probably like 7 to 3, almost like a 70% to 30% margin against Gavin, which could really, it would be more, probably more decisive than a regular election would be because they hate Gavin Newsom in the Central Valley.
Richard Barris
Yeah, you have, we, we've benefited too from doing some district level polling. Some of that's for clients, some of that's for a public polling project we've done. But take a, take districts like 21, David Veladio, Valada or whatever, whatever. The Trump impeaching Republican out there, he barely squeaked by, but his district was plus 18. Get rid of him. So that's, that's a basically even district. Jim Costa, I mean, he's a, I don't even know how many year incumbent, very under the radar, barely, barely known, but he won that district 20 points in 2020, even though Trump did much better. But they want to throw out Gavin by an 8 point margin. So I think that, you know, California is a big state. It's diverse. It is difficult to poll. We weighed it a little bit differently, which may explain why we have a little closer race than some of these other people are showing. But in the end, when we drill down into these districts, I mean, he should not be losing California 16 by eight points. I mean, that, that's, that is, even if he ekes it out, it's an embarrassment.
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Charlie Kirk
Reliefactor.com so, so let's just go through. If, if Gavin Newsom gets recalled, what would be the areas that have to do that? You'd have to have kind of the gay base in San Francisco not turn out right. I'm not saying that pejoratively. It's just what it is, right? You have to have the Hispanic, the Hispanic base in kind of la, not turnout, right? And then you need to have a Suburban one 180, right? You need to have kind of the Westwood yoga moms and, you know, the Brentwood yoga moms, I mean, and kind of like the Pasadena professors be like, not going to happen. And the reason I'm saying this, though, is that this really is an uphill climb. I mean, California, you need like five different dominoes to fall. Am I right?
Richard Barris
Yeah, that, that's a very realistic. I mean, and it's, it's good that we do that with viewers and Listeners, be realistic. It is a very steep hill to climb. But the things you just mentioned, we did see possible, which is why it was close. In LA, for instance, 51% of Hispanics told us in LA they were going to vote. You know, he should. He should trounce the opposition in LA. You should eat at least 30 points out of there. And we were not seeing that. And the reason why is because a
Larry Elder
lot of the people who did tell
Richard Barris
us they were going to vote were anti Newsom. So outside in the county, you know, around Ventura, the suburbs, he was not doing well. And then you had San Diego, for instance, where if San Diego was a bigger margin for no or for yes to recall him, then probably means Orange county would have been a little bit wider. And it may have been a lead for a minute there. But San Diego was not as pro recall as we expected it to be, or it needs to be. So there are definitely five dominoes, maybe even more that you need to see fall. That white liberal base, you know, which is that Bay Area, he needs the more inland Hispanics, for sure. Central Valley Hispanics, the working Hispanic in
Charlie Kirk
the Central Valley, they tend to be more conservative.
Richard Barris
They do, and they're getting more conservative over the years, but they, for a while there, were the most pro recall. I think what Democrats have tried to do in recent weeks is target two groups of people, voters like them, who may think it's not possible, we can't win this thing, so maybe I won't vote. And then two, there were a lot of independents and even Democrats, because we had about 18% of Democrats told us they were going to vote yes. But even this big chunk of Democrats who wanted to vote yes, big chunk of independents who want to vote yes, but they're afraid of Republicans. The Republican brand stinks out there. I mean, the party has been anemic. We have to be real about this. And that's why you saw them go after Larry Elder the way you did. You know, he's the face of white supremacy. They have no rational policy argument to make. So plan B, Scare the hell out of everybody. And that is, we actually saw that in the poll numbers where people were like, look, I would like to vote yes. I just don't know what Republicans are gonna do to my collective bargaining, to my union, whatever it may be, my healthcare. So they got a little bit nervous. But on the flip side of that, Charlie, the problems that California is suffering
Charlie Kirk
from,
Richard Barris
there's almost no way to cover them up with politics anymore. Homelessness, cost of living was the most important issue with voting. And when we asked people what about cost of living, they told us housing prices, gas prices and state and local taxes. Housing prices took half of that. And this is just not working. People who tell us this. So, you know, homelessness was up there, too. So was crime. The one maybe good thing Gavin Newsom has for him is that coronavirus. If you pump that fear level up, you may scare people back into their coronavirus holes where they care more about the virus than they do cost of living. I'm not sure he was there yet, but. So he took a different turn and instead let me try to scare them on the idea of a Republican being in the mansion. And that's what he's tried. And I will tell you this, you know, unequivocally, if yes wins, Larry Elder is the next governor. That's it.
Charlie Kirk
Nobody. That was my next question. So just say that. That. I mean, at the very least, Larry Elder will be able to say he got the most votes out of the. I mean, that's going to happen, right? I mean, Larry will win.
Richard Barris
That is going to happen.
Charlie Kirk
He will win. The if yes question, the question is in the next six days, and as voting is happening, you know, who's going to turn out and are people going to want to keep one of the worst governors in America?
Richard Barris
Yeah. And ultimately the state is very blue, but this is a time where the state's suffering from so many problems. They're debating it, let me just put it that way. So these people would never vote for Republican presidential candidate. They probably in another year would not vote for a Republican candidate. But the situation is so bad now. I've told people this, but it's true for many people who live in California, including people who have voted Democrat for years, this is their last chance. So cost of living may just be completely out of control. They have net negative migration and they really feel like they would leave the state if they could. And this may be their last chance to do something about it. 40%, that's it told us they enjoy living in California and do not contemplate leaving. The rest told us that they would leave if they could, but they can't because of financial situations. And then the remaining part is split about evenly told us that they would, that they're going to leave. They're probably going to. That's not a healthy state. We asked that same question to Floridians about a year ago. And almost 80%, about 78% told us they were happy living in Florida and never thought about leaving. Andrew Big contrast.
Show Co-host or Guest
Yeah. Hey. Hey, Rich. I've been sort of hanging out here in the background, just soaking it all in. I want to ask you specifically, in the time we have remaining, you know, we're about to have Larry on right after you, so we're going to have a chance to talk to the man himself. I'm really curious about this Hispanic vote specifically. Obviously, the state is becoming more Hispanic. You know, they have more kids than basically any other constituency. We still have a lot of Hispanic folks immigrating to California, whether illegally or illegally. We're seeing them become more conservative. You said that before, but there was polling out a couple of weeks ago that said that they were the only ethnic group that supported the yes vote. Is that what you're seeing, or are we losing them back out of this, these, these scare tactics you talked about?
Richard Barris
Yeah, I mean, I think the danger is you could lose them in the end to those scare tactics. Let me, you know, I was talking about California 16, as, you know, specifically is that district. Democrats won that district by 20 points, but Donald Trump only lost it by seven. So those are the areas where there's room for making gains among Hispanic voters. And there are others, too, but it's a great example. They're not hip to the Republican Party, guys. I mean, that's just. They really haven't voted Republican in their lives. And, you know, some of them are new, but they haven't voted Republic. They have no history of that. So there has to be some relationship building. There's. They just like the message. In a state where Donald Trump was toxic, they liked the message. So it's really, it's worth noting. And I will say with Larry Elder, you know, he's been on message, you know, when we poll what these people care about, you know, if I could put it in a slogan, I guess I would, you know, I would say that California is just unlivable and Newsom is a hypocrite, because that is, we asked different things about Gavin Newsom, and what there was bipartisan, widespread support over was that he doesn't practice what he preaches. He even ticked off people who didn't care about lockdowns, you know, from, you know, working Hispanics who absolutely hated those lockdowns to the white liberal who doesn't care, is on the computer all day anyway and is wealthy across the board. These people told us that he's a hypocrite. So that was an area of vulnerability there. That and the state is just if you can be well off financially but live in an area where it's not really livable. You know, the homelessness situation is disgusting in some parts of Gavin Newsom's own neighborhood. And they talk, they told us that, Charlie, this is. It can be gross to walk down streets that we used to love to take strolls down. And then on the flip side of that, for the not so wealthy, they're suffering financially between the lockdowns and the rising cost of living.
Charlie Kirk
So, Richard, we have to get Larry Elder on right now. I just want to say the night of the election, we're going to be covering it. I'm sure you'll be covering it live, but you have an open invitation to come in on our broadcast as we do an all night stream. Because I want to, I kind of want to know what counties are trending where. So we hope you take us up on that. Maybe we could cross stream at some parts of it or do some crazy things. But, but final prediction. My final prediction is that it's right in that margin. I'm not trying to get people's hopes up. A month ago I was very optimistic. I'm right in that. Kind of cautiously optimistic. I mean, we know they're gonna do a lot of funny business and all that nonsense. What do you say as it comes down right now? What are you thinking?
Richard Barris
Yeah, I'm right where you are. I really am. You know, you never wanna, you never wanna over talk something. It's a tremendous hill to climb. They have a ton of money and yeah, it's California. They pull shenanigans. Anyone who says they don't is a liar. It's that simple. But if, if. Charlie, it is absolutely possible that this thing can go so much against them that they, you know, they would have to be, they would have to be playing games for weeks and weeks and I'm. If the electorate pulls out the way that it suggests in the ballot tracking, which I'm talking about right now, what's been returned, then they. Gavin Newsom still has a lot of work to do, but again, I'm with you. I'm cautious. Cautious.
Charlie Kirk
Very, very good. All right.
Richard Barris
Right in the margin.
Charlie Kirk
All right, well, thank you very much, Richard, and I hope you join us on election night. We'll be streaming the entire thing. Talk to you soon. Thanks so much.
Show Co-host or Guest
Thanks, Rich.
Richard Barris
Let's do it. All the best, guys.
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Charlie Kirk
hey everybody. With us is the man who might become governor of California, Larry Elder. Electelder.com electelder.com we endorsed Larry early on. I'm glad we did. He has surged in the polls and it looks like Larry is going to win the plurality as if the polls are right, but we don't know. Larry, how's it going out there in the field in California?
Larry Elder
Well, I think it's going well. As you pointed out, I clearly have the plurality on the replacement side based on is whether or not 50% plus one vote voters in California vote to recall Gavin Newsom. And it's my job to remind people why nearly 2 million people signed that petition, Charlie, to get this guy out of here. Almost a third of them were the very people that voted for him just two years earlier. And by that I'm talking about independents and Democrats. I should Even add Hispanics. 63% of Hispanics voted for him two years ago and now the majority of Hispanics want him out, largely because Gavin Newsom shut down public education. And before he shut down public education, kids educated in our government schools were already behind. Our scores are nearly near the bottom of all 50 states. While we're spending $15,000 per student per year and not getting sufficient bang for our buck, he also shut down the state to the point where a third of all small businesses are now gone forever. And many of these small businesses were owned by black and brown and Asian American people. The kind of people that people like Gavin Newsom pride themselves on caring about.
Charlie Kirk
And so, Larry, this is something that has now become a national kind of issue, the California recall. And Gavin Newsom is very nervous, and he's largely nervous because he has a formidable opponent in you and the message that you are bringing forward, and you kind of set the entire American kind of political community on fire, and you've stayed so disciplined. I just want to say they've tried to trap you in so many different ways. And I gotta ask you, Larry, what is it like to be called saying that you are the black face of white supremacy? I mean, have you seen it all at this point now? Yeah.
Larry Elder
Well, you know, Charlie, I work real hard to earn that title, so don't dismiss it. Look, it's ludicrous. You know, I was looking at a New York Times front page article about my race, and it was a negative article, of course, and it did not mention the fact that I'm black, even though I would be the first black governor of California. And I've never, ever asked anybody to vote for me because I'm black or to vote against me because I'm black. But on the very same page, there was a big article about the current governor of New York being, quote, the first female governor of New York, even though she didn't run. She was basically appointed because the other guy resigned. But that was a big deal. But my race wasn't even referred to because when you're the first black conservative, they don't care about you being the first. It's the kind of double standard, Charlie, that you and I have been talking about for a very long time. I've been talking about and writing about this for almost 35, 40 years in television and in radio. So it does not surprise me. I'm scaring the crap out of them. The reason I'm scaring the crap out of them is because I'm from the inner city. I wasn't on third base and thought I hit a triple like my opponent. My father came here with nothing. Eighth grade dropout, education, made it to the middle class by hard work and by believing in himself and by believing in America. That's not the message the left wants to hear. They want to hear about systemic racism. They want to hear about critical race theory. They want to hear about reparation. So I'm a direct threat to their narrative.
Charlie Kirk
That's exactly right. So, Larry, I just got to ask you as a friend and as just someone who's curious, since you've jumped into this Race. Obviously you were in touch with the grassroots. You were on radio for years. What have you learned about politics, Larry, since getting involved in this? I'm just personally curious.
Larry Elder
Yeah, well, you know, if you know my show, and I know you do, I've never been one of those who ridiculed political people in politics, never called them funny names. I never made jokes about him because I always knew it was a hard gig, that your personal life is exposed. And every two years, four years, six years, there's a thumbs up or a thumbs down over your job and you can lose your job. But I must tell you, I had no idea how rigorous it was to run on a campaign. I've only been doing it for six weeks. You hear my voice already is being, is being stressed. Imagine doing this for an entire year, having this kind of schedule. I'm up, I get my first interview at 7, I get my last interview at 8 o' clock at night. And I'm doing print, I'm doing tv, I'm doing radio, I'm doing rallies, I'm doing fundraisers, which you have to do if you're going to be successful. And one of my campaign aides, I said to him, he's very experienced. I said, does everybody who runs for office lose his voice? He says, the only ones who don't are the ones who don't work hard. And it's just the way it is. And so I have even more respect for people, whether they're Democrats or Republicans, to get into this game, Charlie, than I did before.
Charlie Kirk
And I think what's so important about that is just to think about kind of, Larry came into this with no prior experience and you didn't ask for this. You know, you contemplated it for a while, Larry, and you kind of really
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shook up this race.
Charlie Kirk
So you've been all over the state, you've been to my, our friend Rob McCoy's church and Jack Kibbs church and Greg Farrington's church. Let's talk more broadly. Just do you see something that's happening, Larry, that's even bigger than the California recall of people that are stepping up, that want to take their country back?
Larry Elder
Absolutely. So many people, Charlie, have told me, larry, you've inspired me. I'm now gonna run for school board, Now I'm gonna run for city council. I wasn't gonna get into politics. But now that you've done it and I've seen what you sacrifice, Larry, you have inspired me to get into politics. People keep telling me how much courage I have. I never thought of it that way, Charlie. I feel I have an obligation, a spiritual, a moral and a patriotic duty to do this because I feel that I'm the only one that can beat Gavin Newsom. No, no disrespect to my Republican rivals, but they didn't have the same name recognition that I have. They have been talking about these issues for 27 years, writing about them for 27 years like I have. And I felt that I could do something and I could make things better on crime, on homelessness, on the outrageous cost of living, on the way this man shut down this state while ignoring science while his own kids were enjoying in person education, on fire management, on water management and on energy. I can do something to make things better for Californians and I feel I have a moral, a spiritual and a patriotic duty to do that. And that's why I'm doing it. Obviously, I'm not doing it for fame. I'm not doing it for money. I'm doing it because I really think I can make things better.
Charlie Kirk
Well, and so talk, talk a little bit about that of what you would be what would you would do, Larry and also kind of give some of our national audience it's again, electelder.com just kind of the timeframe here. We're up against a deadline, right? The election is right around the corner. You know, the opposition is spending money like you can't believe. And so talk, talk a little bit about this last minute sprint and then what will some of your actions be if all of a sudden we wake up and Larry Elder's governor, which very well might happen.
Larry Elder
Well, the last minute spread is to remind people of why 2 million people signed this petition to get him out. As I mentioned, about a third of them were independents as Democrats who just voted for him two years earlier. I'm reminding people of how their kids are really getting shafted because they didn't go back to in person education about the businesses that have been shut down because this man ignored science and didn't allow business owners and employees to figure it out. And what's going on here is it's become a national issue. That's why he's brought in all this heavy lumber from outside. Elizabeth Warren cut a commercial for him. Kamala Harris is here. Joe Biden has weighed in, Nancy Pelosi has weighed in. And what they haven't, what you've never heard any one of them say, Charlie, is and I'm quoting, Governor Gavin Newsom has done a good job for California, close quote. You haven't heard that all you've heard is that this is a Republican takeover, a right wing takeover, but no defense about crime, which is up. No defense about homelessness, which is up. No defense about the fact that people are leaving California for the very first time in this state is 170 years old and they're citing high cost of living, taxes and excessive regulation. You don't hear any defense of all that. All you're hearing is, let's change the conversation. Let's talk about issues that have nothing whatever to do with why people have signed this petition and want this guy out.
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Charlie Kirk
And so now we're at this moment where it looks like, Larry, you will win the plurality amongst all of your other opponents. The question is, are they going to cut the corners enough to try to get the yes, no question. What are you seeing and hearing, Larry, on that? And let's make that case. We need people to vote yes recall Newsom. It's kind of confusing. And honestly, I'll be very honest, the way that they created the ballot is really, I don't think it benefits the Democrats. The question's like halfway down on the ballot and I think some people are gonna be like, yes, I wanna keep Gavin Newsom. Because, I mean, you never know. I mean, you're dealing with a lot of Democrats here, 3 to 5%. So talk about how that's the most important question, isn't it, Larry, that we gotta get 50 plus one to say yes. We, we want Gavin Newsom out.
Larry Elder
That's right. By far, it's the most important question. And you pointed out 50% plus one must vote yes to recall Gavin Newsom. And then the second part is, whom do you want to replace him? And obviously, I want people to Vote for me. But you asked me what I would do if I became governor. I'll tell you what I won't do. I won't impose statewide mandates the way this guy has on bass, on face masks and on vaccines. He has mandated that every government worker who's not been vaccinated be tested once a week and will be required to wear a face mask at work. Now, I don't get it. I've been vaccinated. I'm not anti vax because of my age, because of other underlying comorbidities. But for crying out loud, a lot of people have made a very different decision. And for him to tell people who assume the risk, you need to wear a mask at work to protect yourself against other people who assume the risk. It's anti science. And he's supposed to be the one who's pro science. I'm also going to declare a statewide emergency on housing. We have environmental laws that prevent developers from developing low cost housing, which is why the price of a home in California has just hit $800,000, which is anywhere from 150% to 250% above the national average. I'm also going to declare a statewide emergency on water. We have all sorts of projects for more reservoirs, to raise dams and to store water underground. We do have our wet seasons and we're not doing that. Water is raining right out into the Pacific Ocean because of these projects are being held up for fear of lawsuits. I'm going to declare statewide emergency on water. So there are going to be some big changes when I get there, even though I'll be dealing with a hostile legislature.
Charlie Kirk
Well, and there's a lot of power that the California governor could have. And also this would send shockwaves all throughout the national political community. So, Larry, I know that you're losing your voice and you're traveling the state. In closing, how can people help you in this last sprint? Because we want to stay supportive of you and, you know, you've been so good to our show and at Turning Point, how can people help you? Electelder.com and we have a lot of California listeners. If people have already voted, what else can they do?
Larry Elder
Well, get 10 of your friends to also vote. Make sure you sign the ballot, make sure you turn it in. If you don't trust the mail, Charlie, you can track it online or you can drop it off at a voting center and throw a little something in the tip jar. Because my opponent has spent so far $75 million from the usual suspects, the teachers union, the public sector unions, Hollywood big tech, they're going to outspend. That's probably about 10 to 1. They're also going to pull all sorts of shenanigans if you see or hear of anything that you think is suspicious. We had a voter integrity project on electelder.com we're going to file lawsuits in a timely fashion so courts can't throw them out claiming that we waited too long. So throw something in the tip jar. Tell 10 to your 10 of your friends to vote. Make sure you sign the ballot and make sure you turn it in right now. Electelder.com electelder.com it says right there on
Charlie Kirk
the website, make phone calls to registered voters, print at home and distribute Elect Elder flyers. Encourage, encourage your family, friends and neighbors to vote. Yes. Encourage your families to sign up as volunteers. Change your Facebook and Twitter banners to Elect Elder graphics and then volunteer as an election integrity watchdog. And Larry, we are in California this weekend to do recall Gavin Newsom events. We're doing one in San Diego. We're doing one in Orange County. We're doing everything we possibly can to help you out. Anything in closing, Larry, you want to say about your race in this final, final sprint of what has been a pretty crazy six weeks for you, just
Larry Elder
again, these people coming in from out of California trying to make this a federal race. It's not a federal race. It's about California. It's not about Republicans. It's not about even Democrats. It's about Gavin Newsom and his failed leadership. I would love to debate Gavin Newsom. By the way, Charlie, feel free to call him up and set it up. See if he'll debate me over his record on crime, over his record on homelessness, over his record on the rising cost of living, over his record, over the crappy education that black and brown kids are getting K through 12. Let's have that debate.
Charlie Kirk
And he doesn't want to have it because he has almost no record at all. Well, Larry, you're a great friend. Keep it up. Don't lose your voice. Electelder.com and thanks so much for all you're doing. And we'll be watching on election night and hopefully we can get it over 50 plus 1. Thanks for all you're doing.
Larry Elder
Thank you, Charlie. I'll see you in Sacramento.
Charlie Kirk
You bet.
ExpressVPN/Advertisement Voice
All right.
Charlie Kirk
Can't wait. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Email us your thoughts freedomarliekirk.com and if you want to support our program, you could do so@charliecharliekirk.com support. Thanks so much for listening everybody. God Bless.
Turning Point USA Representative
For more on many of these stories
Richard Barris
and news you can Trust, go to charliekirk.com.
Episode: EXCLUSIVE California Recall Update with Larry Elder and Pollster Richard Baris
Date: September 8, 2021
This episode focuses on the high-stakes California recall election targeting Governor Gavin Newsom. Host Charlie Kirk is joined by pollster Richard Baris (“People’s Pundit”) for in-depth analysis of the polling landscape, voter demographics, and regional dynamics influencing the race. Later, Republican frontrunner and talk radio host Larry Elder joins to provide a candidate’s perspective on the campaign, discuss his motivations, and lay out what his priorities would be if elected governor.
With Richard Baris (People’s Pundit) [03:08–19:40]
Recall Mechanics & Demographic Trends:
“The most likely somebody is to vote, the more likely they are to vote against [Newsom]… The problem Newsom has… he needs white liberals and Asian voters to come out and they are the least likely to want to vote.” – Richard Baris [03:42]
Regional Differences & Democratic Vulnerability:
Newsom’s base is the Bay Area (San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland). He is performing poorly in the Central Valley and Southern California.
Quote:
“He should not be losing California 16 by eight points… even if he ekes it out, it's an embarrassment.” – Richard Baris [07:44]
Central Valley and suburban margins could be huge for the recall if turnout patterns continue.
Even in traditional strongholds like LA, Newsom isn't cruising:
“51% of Hispanics told us in LA they were going to vote. He should trounce the opposition in LA… We were not seeing that.” – Richard Baris [09:55]
Barriers for Republicans & Elder:
“The Republican brand stinks out there… That's why you saw them go after Larry Elder… They have no rational policy argument to make. So plan B: scare the hell out of everybody.” – Richard Baris [11:24]
Top Issues Driving Voter Decisions:
“There's almost no way to cover them up with politics anymore.” – Richard Baris [12:34]
“Only 40% told us they enjoy living in California and do not contemplate leaving. The rest… would leave if they could.” – Richard Baris [13:50]
Hispanic and Independent Voters:
“They’re afraid of Republicans… [but] homelessness, cost of living, were top concerns transcending party lines.” – Richard Baris [11:28], [12:31]
Prediction & Election Integrity Concerns:
“You never wanna over talk something. It's a tremendous hill to climb. They [Democrats] have a ton of money and yeah, it's California… But absolutely possible…” – Richard Baris [18:42]
With Larry Elder [20:48–34:29]
Why Larry is Running & State of the Race:
Elder is the clear frontrunner if Newsom is recalled; emphasizes bipartisan anti-Newsom sentiment, especially among Hispanics, independents, and Democrats.
“Almost a third [of recall petition signers] were the very people that voted for him just two years earlier… Now the majority of Hispanics want him out…” – Larry Elder [21:09]
Elder highlights school closures, business destruction, and cost of living as drivers.
“ This has become a national issue ” as top Democrats and national figures campaign on Newsom's behalf.
Responding to Media Attacks:
“I work real hard to earn that title, so don't dismiss it. Look, it's ludicrous… When you’re the first black conservative, they don’t care about you being the first. It’s the kind of double standard… I’m scaring the crap out of them…” – Larry Elder [22:45]
Lessons Learned About Campaigning:
“I always knew [politics] was a hard gig… But I must tell you, I had no idea how rigorous it was… I’ve only been doing it for six weeks. You hear my voice already is being stressed. Imagine doing this for an entire year…” – Larry Elder [24:19]
Movement Momentum & Broader Inspiration:
“So many people… have told me, Larry, you’ve inspired me. I’m now gonna run for school board… city council… I never thought of it that way, Charlie. I feel I have a moral, spiritual and patriotic duty to do this…” – Larry Elder [25:51]
What Elder Would Do as Governor:
“I won’t impose statewide mandates the way this guy has on… face masks and on vaccines... For crying out loud, a lot of people have made a very different decision.” – Larry Elder [30:43]
“Going to declare a statewide emergency on housing… and on water…” – Larry Elder [31:07]
Recall Process & Voter Messaging:
Elder and Kirk stress ballot mechanics: voters must both vote YES to recall and select a replacement; messaging is focused on cutting through confusion and getting supporters to turn out.
“By far, it’s the most important question… 50% plus one must vote yes to recall Gavin Newsom. Then the second part is, whom do you want to replace him?” – Larry Elder [30:33]
Calls for volunteers, poll watchers, and reporting of suspected irregularities due to concern for election integrity.
Democratic Weakness/Messaging:
“If Gavin Newsom even survived by 10 points, it’s a flashing red light for Democrats. He should survive this recall by 30, 35 points. This is a very blue state.”
– Richard Baris [05:38]
California’s Widespread Dissatisfaction:
“40%, that’s it, told us they enjoy living in California and do not contemplate leaving... The rest told us that they would leave if they could, but can’t because of financial situations.”
– Richard Baris [13:50]
On Being Called ‘Black Face of White Supremacy’:
“Look, it’s ludicrous…when you’re the first black conservative, they don’t care about you being the first. It’s the kind of double standard… I’m scaring the crap out of them.”
– Larry Elder [22:45]
Nationalizing the Recall:
“This is not a federal race. It’s about California. It’s not about Republicans. It’s not about even Democrats. It’s about Gavin Newsom and his failed leadership.”
– Larry Elder [33:48]
For more analysis & updates, visit: