Game Time - The Charlie Kirk Show | Wave AI Podcast Notes

The Charlie Kirk Show

Episode: Game Time

Date: November 3, 2020

Episode Overview

In this high-energy pre-election episode, Charlie Kirk delivers a passionate, data-driven “final argument” for President Trump and conservative candidates on the eve of the 2020 Election. Drawing on real-time polling, early vote turnouts, ground reports from battleground states, and direct feedback from voters, Kirk argues that a Trump upset is not only possible but likely, provided there is massive turnout. The episode is loaded with analysis, criticism of left-wing narratives, and repeated calls-to-action for listeners to vote and mobilize their circles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Surge in Trump Momentum & Exploding Crowds

Kirk recounts his travels across states like Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin, and more, emphasizing a palpable energy and a noticeable late shift toward President Trump.
- Quote: “Last week... I predicted that over the weekend, you are going to see some of this data materialize in the late polling.” ([01:48])
He highlights President Trump’s relentless rally schedule, drawing crowds of 20,000–30,000 at each stop.
- Quote: “No one in the history of American politics has ever seen this kind of ambitious campaign schedule, ever.” ([07:15])

2. Late Breaking Polls Favor Trump

Kirk analyzes the Des Moines Register poll showing Trump up 7 points in Iowa and the movement in key battlegrounds like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
- Quote: “The headline is, ‘Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades.’ None of this is good news for Joe Biden.” ([08:45])
- He dismisses polls favoring Biden, arguing that “polling is a lagging indicator... it's not a leading indicator.” ([01:48])
Kirk claims mainstream media and analysts like Nate Silver and Larry Sabato are out of step with actual data and fail to account for ground realities.
- Quote: “The fact that Nate Silver is saying that... just goes to show that I’m invalidating any other predictions... They know nothing more than an average person looking at this data.” ([17:18])

3. Hispanic & Minority Voters Shifting for Trump

Citing early voting and absentee ballot trends, Kirk asserts Trump is making unprecedented inroads with Hispanic and Black voters, especially in Miami-Dade County and across Florida.
- Quote: “President Trump is doing phenomenally well with Latino voters.” ([19:02])
- Quote: “The Democrat advantage for in-person early voting in Miami-Dade county is just 403 votes. In 2016, Democrats had a 70,000 vote advantage in Miami-Dade.” ([19:35])
Kirk summarizes feedback from Hispanic organizers:
- “They said President Donald Trump is winning Hispanic voters because he’s more exciting, he’s more energizing, and he speaks to the heart and then to the head.” ([20:38])
He highlights the disconnect between the Democratic message about lockdowns and the desires of Latino and working-class communities.
- Quote: “A shutdown message to the Latino community is the exact opposite of what they want to hear.” ([20:10])

4. Critique of Biden’s Campaign and Messaging

Kirk derides Biden’s closing message as negative, confusing, and off-putting, referencing what he calls “Pig Latin” and incoherent statements.
- Quote: “Joe Biden’s closing argument sounds something like gibberish. Pig Latin.” ([00:00])
- Memorable Moment: Audio played of Biden’s gaffe:
  - “I’ll lead an effective strategy to mobilize true international pressure.” ([38:52])
He repeatedly claims the Democratic base is less energized and less focused on American exceptionalism, which he says hampers Biden’s ability to unite his party.
- Quote: “A very substantial part of the Democrat base doesn’t want America to be successful, big, or bold. They want America to be deconstructed.” ([10:42])

5. Economic Messaging Resonates

Kirk makes the case that Trump’s message of reopening the country and economic recovery is resonating more strongly than the Democrats’ focus on COVID restrictions.
- Quote: “The candidate who’s talking about opening up the country, crushing the virus, correctly trusting the science... that message resonates at a fundamental level with the muscular class.” ([22:13])
He suggests that working class Americans and minorities are especially receptive to Trump’s economic message.
- Quote: “They’re the ones that actually have to do the grunt work, while the Zoom and Skype class... has the luxury of being able to tell other people to sit down and shut up.” ([22:54])

6. Criticism of Pollsters and Media Narratives

Kirk argues most polling underestimates Trump’s support and the importance of Election Day turnout, especially among Republicans who plan to vote in-person.
- Quote: “Stop looking at things monolithically... One of the most incredible and admirable traits of President Trump is how he views everything as a potential to improve.” ([14:54])
- Quote: “Polling becomes less and less relevant the more we actually see early voting data, turnout, and what is needed for a certain candidate to win.” ([26:03])
He claims the media and Democrats are using polls as psychological tactics to demoralize GOP turnout.
- Quote: “They look at these polls as tactics and their narratives as tactics, to try and impact human behavior, to try and not have you show up tomorrow.” ([32:10])

7. Leftist Plans if Biden Wins

Kirk warns that if Biden is elected, progressive forces led by figures like Bernie Sanders will control the agenda.
- Quote: [Bernie Sanders] “We organize our people to make sure that Biden becomes the most progressive president since FDR.” ([36:54])

8. Call To Action & Urgency

Kirk continuously rallies listeners to mobilize maximum turnout for Trump, urging peer-to-peer texts, social media, and helping friends get to the polls.
- Quote: “Empty your phone and peer to peer text message everyone in your phone right now to go vote for President Donald Trump and Republicans up and down the ballot.” ([33:20])
Describes the election as “the last mechanism that we have in a free society to check against corporate tyranny, cultural tyranny, and leftist domination.” ([37:23])
- Quote: “If we win, the country’s saved. If we lose, we got a problem. Let’s choose wisely, everybody.” ([40:20])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“This is the most important election of our lifetime. Our values, our security, and our future are on the ballot.” ([01:15] & [40:54]) – Repeated throughout, both by Kirk and in ad spots.
“President Donald Trump is the ambassador, is the representative of free speech... fighting more for the ideas that people on the liberal left think they believe in than any other candidate.” ([35:46])
“Do not be a spectator. Do something about it. Drag those friends to the polls. Empty your entire phone, post on social media relentlessly for the President. We can do this everybody.” ([34:30])
Biden gaffes replayed as part of closing arguments: “I’ll lead an effective strategy to mobilize true international pressure.” / “I think it’s a right for people that bad at... Kev care.” ([38:52] - [39:10])
Critique of Stacey Abrams: “She’s awful. She is one of my least favorite politicians. She’s a pathological liar... Suppression is their only weapon.” ([37:25])

Key Timestamps

Polling surge and Iowa poll analysis: [01:48]–[10:00]
Analysis of Trump's rallies and campaign style: [07:15]–[12:00]
Breakdown of early voting data and Hispanic vote: [19:00]–[22:00]
Critique of media & polling establishment: [24:00]–[28:00]
Biden gaffes and closing argument: [38:52]–[39:10]
Bernie Sanders on pushing Biden left: [36:54]
Call to action: [33:20]; [34:30]; [40:20]

Summary Table

| Segment | Timestamp | Key Points/Quotes | |--------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------| | Surge in pro-Trump polls | 01:48–10:00 | “Polling is a lagging indicator…” | | Early voting & minority turnout | 19:00–22:00 | “Trump is doing phenomenally well with Latino voters.” | | Critique of Democrat messaging | 10:30–13:00 | “They want America to be deconstructed.” | | Media & pollster criticism | 24:00–28:00 | “They know nothing more…” | | Biden’s gaffes | 38:52–39:10 | “I’ll lead an effective strategy…” | | Bernie Sanders: Biden to be most progressive | 36:54 | “Make sure that Biden becomes the most progressive president since FDR.” | | Call to Action | 33:20; 40:20 | “Drag those friends to the polls…” |

Tone and Language

Charlie Kirk’s tone is urgent, assertive, and at times combative, framing the election as a make-or-break moment for America. He mixes data analysis, polemics against Democrats and mainstream media, and motivational appeals to listeners to maximize turnout.

For listeners seeking a high-octane, inside-the-moment snapshot of the Trump campaign’s perspective on Election Eve, this episode is both a rallying cry and a whirlwind tour through polls, demographics, and ground-report optimism.

Transcript

A (0:00)

Hey, everybody. Today on the Charlie Kirk show, final polling shows President Trump within the margin of error in Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders says a Joe Biden campaign will be a radical leftist takeover. And Joe Biden's closing argument sounds something like gibberish. Pig Latin. That and so much more here in the Charlie Kirk Show. Please go vote. Get your friends to do the same. Get to the polls. Do it proudly, do it loudly. And email us freedom charliekirk.com Pictures of you voting and your friends doing that. Post them on social media. We. We have to win, everybody. This isn't striking distance. We need massive turnout, the largest turnout the country has ever seen in the history of this republic. We turn out, we win. It's that simple. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus. I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk. Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

B (0:52)

I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point usa.

A (1:02)

We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here.

C (1:15)

This is the most important election of our lifetime. Our values, our security, and our future are on the ballot. Every American deserves to have their voice heard and their vote counted. So visit YourVote2020.org to find your polling location. To the polls. Cast your ballot. Visit YourVote2020.org because your voice, your values, your vote have never been more important. Paid for by America First Policies, Inc.

A (1:48)

We've been crisscrossing the country. We were in Florida. We've been in North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota, Colorado. We've been all across the country. Especially in the last week, I started to see a paradigm shift. We started to see data come in through early voting numbers, the final voter registration numbers. We started to see our crowds explode in size. And last week, on Friday, when we finished off the week of the Charlie Kirk Show, I predicted that over the weekend, you are going to see some of this data materialize in the late polling. Remember, polling is a lagging indicator. It's not a leading indicator. Polling only shows a snapshot of time. But it takes days to tabulate these polls. You're only talking to maybe 800 to 1,000 people. And things can be changing very rapidly. For example, about a week and a half ago, A poll came out that showed that 8% of voters were still undecided. 8%. That is a massive number considering how polarized people believe our country is. And if you are still undecided about President Trump today, you are waiting for a reason to vote for President Trump. So I had a phone call with a friend of mine who is very involved in politics and he runs a lot of national campaigns. I consider him to be a data savant. We were chatting on Saturday afternoon around 3 or 4 Wisconsin time, Central time. And we were saying, ah, where is the polling? That is reflecting what we're seeing in the early voting data, in the crowds, in the conversations. And we both said, remember back in 2016 when the Des Moines Register poll came out? I said, yeah, of course I remember that. He said, well, it's supposed to come out in a couple hours. Let's see what it says. Now. Back in 2016, I was traveling the country with Donald Trump Jr. On my personal time the weekend before the Tuesday shock election. We were in Michigan, we were in Wisconsin, we were all across the country. And I remember being with Don and we saw this Des Moines Register poll come through that showed Donald Trump up seven points. And I said, don, if this ends up being correct, we're going to win the Midwest and we could win this election. The Des Moines Register poll was the, it was the canary in the coal mine for the rural Democrats that were realizing quickly they were losing not just rural voters, but also independent voters. So late on Saturday evening, after we got done campaigning in Wisconsin, the Des Moines Register poll came out. I must have had at least 15 people texted to me in less than an hour. And the Des Moines Register poll, which is considered to be the gold standard of polls, it's just the state poll just in Iowa, it is always done the Saturday evening before the Tuesday election. It runs on. The Sunday episode of the Des Moines Register had President Donald Trump up seven points against Joe Biden, identical to 2016 in September. This Iowa poll showed Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied 47 to 47. The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Seltzer Co. Of Des Moines. It is an Iowa based polling company. They know how to poll the state of Iowa. The most alarming number though is Joe Biden's 41%. Donald Trump at 48%, Joe Biden at 41%. 3% of voters say that they're supporting somebody else. 2% of voters said they were undecided and 5% of voters said they don't Want to tell or they don't want to reveal who they're voting for, which is code for Trump. The headline is Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden fades. None of this is good news for Joe Biden. They were tied in September, 47% to 47%. The same poll, the same sample size, one month, seven points where Joe Biden goes down to 41, Donald Trump goes up to 48. What changed? Well, first of all, we learned that the Biden family is currently under federal investigation, which Hunter Biden is, and probably his father. We had a 33.1% GDP number on Friday. And also, President Donald Trump successfully recovered from the Chinese coronavirus, and he has been campaigning like a madman. No one in the history of American politics has ever seen this kind of ambitious campaign schedule, ever. President Donald Trump is drawing 20 to 30,000 people per rally, per stop. He's in Fayetteville, North Carolina. He will be in Michigan twice today, Wisconsin and Scranton, Pennsylvania. Yesterday he was in Rome, Georgia, Opa Locka, Florida. He was in North Carolina, he was in Michigan. And I think he might have stopped in Wisconsin as well. It's hard to keep track. He has been crisscrossing the country drawing massive crowds of massive enthusiasm. And his message, his closing argument has been phenomenal. The Joe Biden closing argument has been the same old man, old angry man, screaming at clouds, using pig Latin argument that he's been saying the last couple of weeks, where he just says, everything is awful, we're headed for a dark winter. Trump is the worst thing ever and give us power because we're really angry about it. That's basically the closing argument for Joe Biden. If I was running the Biden campaign, which I never would, I would have suggested, why weren't they more positive and big and bold about what America could be? It's because a lot, a very substantial part of the Democrat base doesn't want America to be successful, big or bold. They want America to be deconstructed. They want the parts to be taken out. They want redistribution. So this idea of a return to American exceptionalism is something that Joe Biden simply cannot communicate without turning off a major part of the Democrat base. And now you're seeing, as Ernest Hemingway would say, this happened gradually, then suddenly. I have been waiting for this type of a poll for weeks because we started to see this in our travels. We started to see this in the work we were doing at Turning Point Action where normal people that were never involved in politics would show up and they'd say, I feel like I'm losing my country. What can I do? The activist media completely misses what Donald Trump represents and stands for. They think it's a cult of personality. It's not for some of his followers. They do enjoy the entertainment value of President Trump. He represents something they can connect to, but it's a lot more sophisticated than that. I wrote an entire book about this, the MAGA Doctrine, where President Donald Trump is a singular vessel for all of the combined betrayals, lies, unkept promises, poorly crafted trade deals, foolish immigration policies, corporate pandering. He's a retaliation to all of it. And he's also, he's a window into America's future. Back to strength, prosperity, exceptionalism, and an America that truly is the greatest country ever to exist in the history of the world. And people are starting to get it very quickly. And what happened on Friday is all of a sudden that 8 to 10% of people that were undecided really started to pay attention to President Donald Trump's rallies. The president has been on message spot on. 10 out of 10 he said, I'm going to open up the country safely. Joe Biden's going to lock it down. Biden will bring a depression and raise your taxes. I won't. I will protect your second Amendment. I have put on the court. Amy Coney, Barrett Kavanaugh and Gorsuch. Look, this holiday season more people will be mailing stuff than ever before. They're mailing things all over the place. That means the post office is going to be busy. It's going to be a circus. You don't have time for that. Stamps.com brings the post office right to your computer. Mail and ship anything from the convenience of your home or office with stamps dot com. Anything you can do at the post office you can do in just a few clicks. Plus, stamps.com saves you money with deep discounts that you can't get at the post office. Stamps.com brings the services of the US Post Office and the UPS right to your computer. Stamps.com is a must have for business whether you're a small office and sending out invoices or an online seller fulfilling orders. Go to stamps.com it's stamps.com you get 5 cents off every first class stamp and 40% off priority mail and 62% off UPS shipping rates. There's no risk. With my promo code Kirk K I R K. You get a special offer that includes a four week trial plus postage and digital scale. Just go to stamps.com, click on the microphone at the top of the homepage and type in Kirk. That's stamps.com Enter Kirk stamps.com Never go to the post office again. Joe Biden got a shock poll this weekend showing that he has plummeted to 41% in Iowa. Despite visiting the state of Iowa recently, spending tens of millions of dollars, and also having a competitive Senate race against incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, it is becoming more and more clear that Senator Joni Ernst will most likely win the Senate seat. The Des Moines Register poll says Trump wins back Independence, Biden loses ground with women. Isn't that the opposite of what the activist media has been telling us? Here's one of the biggest lies about politics, that the way things are a week out of the election is the way that they will stay. Stop looking at things monolithically. One of the most incredible and admirable traits of President Trump is how he views everything as a potential to improve. Iowa was conjectured by Nate Silver and the professional pollsters who are still predicting a Biden landslide. By the way, they're still saying that Joe Biden is going to win in a landslide. I take great exception with that prediction that Iowa was a blue state. It's going to vote for a Democrat senator. It's kind of a waste of time to even think otherwise. Now we have data to show the exact opposite. And last evening, we have now seen an ABC News Washington Post poll that Donald Trump is up to in the critical state of Florida. President Trump is up in North Carolina. And in a shocking turn of events, Joe Biden, who had an average lead in the Real Clear Politics average poll in battleground states of about 5 to 6 points, it has now plummeted to 2.9 points. On the eve of the election, President Donald Trump has regained the polling average in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. And in 2016, President Donald Trump overperformed the battleground averages in certain states by 6 points and others by 3 to 4 points. So what does all this mean going into the day before the election? We're learning a lot as early voting data is coming in. For example, in the state of Florida, Democrats vastly underperformed in the state of Florida. I rarely make predictions this confidently, but I can say with almost 95% certainty that President Donald Trump will win the state of Florida. I will be stunned if President Trump does not win Florida. And I'm looking at the same data that all the professional pundits and prognosticators are looking at. And I went to Nate Silver's blog this morning and he says Joe Biden has Florida completely and totally signed, sealed and delivered. The fact that Nate Silver is saying that while I'm also looking at the same data that he has just goes to show that I'm invalidating any other predictions that Larry Sabadell or any of these professionals are giving up. They know nothing more than an average person looking at this data. For example, Miami Dade county where President Donald Trump drew 30,000 people last evening is underperforming with early voting so significantly from 2016. It is going to take a Democrat surge on election day to compensate for this. The 2020-2016 early vote gap is a 4.7% advantage. Trump 47,941 votes in the state of Florida. Democrats lead early voting in person early voting and vote by mail Republican versus Democrat not including non party affiliates which IS NPAs by 104,000 votes. And now Gulf and Bay counties are allowed to continue to vote today in the Panhandle. By comparison, in 2016 President Trump won the state by 113,000 votes and Hillary Clinton led early voting by 96,000 votes. Talking to Congressman and my friends in Florida, they anticipated being down 275 to 300,000 early votes in Florida and being down 100,000 with the Panhandle. Still, allowing one extra day for early voting is an ideal scenario. Republicans will win same day voting in Florida by 350 to 400,000 votes and non party affiliates Independents in Florida are trending slightly to President Trump's direction. It is becoming almost insurmountable for the Democrats to make up this gap in Florida. 20202016 in person early voting in Florida and Miami Dade County 14.6% Advantage Trump 75,000 more votes General election Trump vs Biden vs Jorgensen vs Hawkins In a national poll. Again, I don't like national polls, but they can be somewhat instructive to see if there's a trend that we might be missing. One week ago USA Today Suffolk poll had Biden up 7 jtnrmg research had Biden up 7 one week ago had CNBC Biden up 10 New York Times Sienna Biden up 9 just out now. International Business Times Biden up 3 his national polling lead cut nearly in half in just the last couple days. This is reflective of the collapsing of polling that we are seeing for Joe Biden all across the country. That is exactly the type of movement that President Trump needs to bring this thing home. The Democrat advantage for in person early voting in Miami Dade county is just 403 votes in 2016 Democrats had a 70,000 vote vote advantage in Miami Dade County. Now this points to lagging turnout in the Hispanic areas and also that President Trump is doing better with Hispanics. He is doing phenomenally well with Latino voters. Let's play cut one. I'm gonna tell you exactly why President Donald Trump is doing so well with Hispanic voters. Let's play cut one. If Joe Biden wins, should another lockdown be on the table? Well, hopefully it doesn't come to that because we will see swift action coordinating with and supporting public health authorities telling us what we can do as citizens without requiring any kind of mandates. But everything has to be on the table in order to keep Americans safe. Do you see how Pete Buddha judge thinks he's just smarter than you. He uses bigger words than typical politicians. What specifically would Joe Biden do differently except lock down the country coordinating and swift action? It sounds good. It makes you feel good. What does that actually mean? Pete Buttigieg thinks he's smarter than you. Let's play that tape again. Listen very carefully and try to make sense of exactly what Joe Biden would do except shutting the country down. Play it again. If Joe Biden wins, should another lockdown be on the table? Well, hopefully it doesn't come to that because we will see swift action coordinating with and supporting public health authorities telling us what we can do as citizens without requiring any kind of mandates. But everything has to be on the table in order to keep Americans safe. Everything has to be on the table. So he uses nice, probably poll tested words, coordinating a swift response, supporting local public health officials. And how exactly did President Trump not do that? But this is exactly why Hispanic voters are coming to President Trump in record numbers. In fact, it's so dramatic, it's so quick and it's so sudden. This could be deliver the White House for President Donald Trump in record fashion. Hispanic and Latino voters are traditionally taken for granted, just like the black community, by Democrat leaders and politicians. Susan Crabtree from Real Clear Politics says can Latinos boost Trump's chances in Florida? Quote, Democrats didn't anticipate a late surge in Latino voters for President Trump in Florida and it's giving them nightmares. Matt Isbell, a Florida based Democrat data analyst said, I have trouble sleeping last night. It is stressing me out. Perfect. We've been having trouble sleeping the last couple months because we thought you guys might get near power. Now you guys are having trouble sleeping when you threaten to shut down the country to a community that owns businesses, understands the value of family, wants open schools and is appreciative for the greatest country ever to exist in the history of the world. A shutdown message to the Latino community is the exact opposite of what they want to hear. I was in Miami, Florida a couple days ago. I spoke to a packed house of Hispanic Cuban Republicans through Turning Point Action. And a couple of the Hispanic organizers came up to me. They said President Donald Trump is winning Hispanic voters. Cuz he's more exciting, he's more energizing and he speaks to the heart and then to the head. And what these Hispanic organizers were telling me is this is why they loved Barack Obama so much, is that he was, he gave them hope, he gave them excitement. That Latino and Hispanic voters, they want the candidate that has the big rallies, the loud music. Again, I'm just relaying exactly what they said. And they said in order to win the Hispanic community, you have to show them that you care. You have to show them that you have massive support and you can win massive amount of Hispanic and Latino voters because of that. Let's play cut4Trump on how Biden's cruel lockdown would be devastating for Florida's tourist industry. Phenomenal closing argument play cut 4 Biden's