A (5:51)
Now, that ad is perfect. Donald Trump should just run that ad non stop from now to the election. It instills a very real sense of fear to the battleground voter in Michigan or Wisconsin or Florida. When I was just in Michigan for a little under five hours, I drove in and spoke at an event in Holland, Michigan and drove back to Chicago. I stopped at a Burger King and I saw on the television that ad twice in less than 30 minutes. And so we're seeing right now new polling that actually shows Donald Trump within the margin of error in states like Pennsylvania. A recent poll in Pennsylvania has Donald Trump only down two points. Now the average has Donald Trump down anywhere between five or six points. But this recent poll by CNBC and Change Research, which is actually a Democrat polling firm, has Biden only up by two points in the state of Pennsylvania. Now this, the survey pool was less likely voters than other recent polls of 382 likely voters. But the other poll in Pennsylvania, Gravis was 1000. Like likely voters done by Grabis Marketing that had Donald Trump down by only three points. Now we have to understand trend lines. The election is not going to be held as you're listening to this podcast, it's not going to be held next week and it's not even going to be held next month. What is the trend? What is the direction that this election is heading and what are the broader questions that still need to be answered? Well, the questions that still need to be answered actually favor Donald Trump. It's hard to imagine how the virus is going to be worse a month from today than it is today. Now, it conceivably could be. You could probably make the argument that deaths could still be going up and the lockdowns could be reintensifying. I actually am an optimist with this. I think that things are going to get better in the next 30 days and even better in the next 60 days. I think that more people are waking up to the cheap proven by some scientists observation method of using hydroxychloroquine. And if you don't Believe me, just listen to our episode with the nine doctors that we had that spoke out against this. And so if the virus is going to improve by relative terms, that helps Donald Trump and hurts Joe Biden. I also believe that if the rumors are true and Joe Biden does indeed select Senator Harris from California, I think you are going to see a five to seven point bump for Donald Trump. Because all of a sudden Joe Biden is no longer just the kind of confused, happy, go lucky guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania. All of a sudden there is a snarly, divisive, gun grabbing, Marxist face to the Democrat Party that manifests all of the radicalism in someone that quite honestly has been a political opportunist for her entire career. Senator Harris. Now there's a reason why Joe Biden, his campaign are taking so long to pick their Vice president. And some sources say that the vice president selection will be happening next week. Now, if it does happen next week, and it is Senator Harris, Midwestern voters want nothing to do with a California senator who very well might become President of the United States. This election will now become a referendum on the soon to be president because of Joe Biden's imminent mental decline and cognitive challenges. And Donald Trump, Donald Trump can win that argument. Senator Harris has pandered to the defund police movement. She has been the most anti second amendment senator in recent years. She has very little to no charisma. She's not well liked amongst the base of the Democrat parties. This is not even a base play. In fact, Bernie Sanders supporters were tweeting out repeatedly, Kamala Harris is a cop. She's a cop. Don't elect Senator Kamala Harris. And that's a really kind of an ironic twist for the Joe Biden campaign. He wants to defund the police and then he puts a cop as his vice president. I'm not really sure how he's going to square that with the base of the Democrat Party. And you actually see some very promising trend lines in the suburbs of America. Defund Police has an 85% negative rating. Suburban America, which is going to determine the election in many of these states and probably the entire presidential election, which used to be a reliably Republican part of these key battleground states has now recently turned more Democrat. If they believe that the police will be defunded and suburban America will be put in complete jeopardy, a lot of them are going to trend towards Donald Trump. Rural America already supports President Trump enthusiastically and I think they are going to show up in great numbers. And President Trump has to continue to communicate and try to build up their enthusiasm and their support. So in every single one of the battleground state polls, Donald Trump is trending in the correct direction. And so I think you're actually going to see a perfect storm in the favor of Donald Trump if he can actually win the COVID primary. And that's basically what this is. If Donald Trump can win the month of August and at the end of August be able to say hospitalizations and deaths are at least stable or going in the right direction, he will be in a dramatically better position in early September than he is now. Whether you're working from home or working on your fitness, you want to know what you're listening to to be actually what you're listening to, not what your roommates or your neighbors or the garbage that your left wing neighbor might be listening to. If they're listening to Rachel Maddow, you need to be able to tune it out. Guess what? You can do that with wireless earbuds from Raycon. You can listen to the Charlie Kirk Show. While your friends, your neighbors, your family members are piping the Young Turks, you can be deep into history, Western civilization, and unique commentary here on the Charlie Kirk Show. That's why you need Raycon. You already know that Raycon earbuds start about half the price of any other premium wireless earbud on the market, and that they sound just as amazing as other top audio brands. Their newest model, the Everyday E25 earbud, are the best ones yet, with six hours of playtime, seamless Bluetooth pairing, more bass, more compact design that gives you a nice noise isolating fit. Raycon's wireless earbuds are incredibly comfortable, perfect for conference calls or binging podcasts. Unlike some of your other wireless options, Raycon earbuds are both stylish and discreet, with no dangling wires or stems to distract anyone during video calls. You've heard me talk about how the company was founded by Ray J and Cardi B. She's a criminal, but she's a nice person. Are obsessed with Raycons. Pick up a pair and see what the hype is all about. So go to buyraycon.com Kirk it's buyraycon.com Kirk for 15% off Raycon wireless earbuds buyraycon.com Kirk now remember, there is a consolidation of Republican support that is always late breaking. Democrats rarely ever are late breaking candidates. Almost never. They consolidate their identity politic groups early, they boost turnout, they ballot harvest, and they hope that Republicans don't show up. Republicans are very reliant on decent, reasonable people breaking in their direction in the last couple weeks of a presidential campaign. That is why Ronald Reagan in 1980 was down 10 points on a lot of the tracking polls weeks before the election. And may he rest in peace, My dear friend Pat Caddell, who was the pollster for President Jimmy Carter, he said he saw a tsunami of new polls coming in the last four or five days that showed the Reagan revolution woke up in a moment's notice and brought Ronald Reagan to the presidency. So we have to look at trend lines. We also have to look at what are the major issues that are going to determine the election. If President Trump can win the COVID primary or the Chinese coronavirus primary and in early September, be able to show positive economic numbers, be able to show that deaths and hospitalizations are hopefully going down, he can then focus on the radicalism that will probably and almost assuredly be on the Democrat ballot. This should be a referendum on Senator Kamala Harris worldview. And the Democrats might back themselves into an argument they are not prepared to have. The Joe Biden campaign has been very successful because Joe Biden is built into the memory of a lot of Americans as being a very decent and very reasonable and moderate U.S. senator and vice President, which is, of course, nonsense and garbage. But it's hard to persuade people of that image because they've had it for a couple decades now. I think Joe Biden's favorability can probably go down another five to six points. However, Senator Kamala Harris, she is detested in the heartland of this country. Her worldview, I should say, personally as well. And those numbers are not going to go up anytime soon amongst swing voters in the Midwest. Right now, if Pennsylvania is within three points, make no mistake, that means Donald Trump is up 4 points in the state of Pennsylvania. That is two independent polls that show Donald Trump within the margin of error of Pennsylvania. This is amazing news, considering this is one of the hardest, toughest moments for President Trump that a president has had in the last couple decades, dealing with the virus, the race riots, and an answer to all of that. And so I think it's actually time that we admit we are due for a break, that we reasonable Americans are actually due for something breaking in our direction. And I think it will. So in order to win the presidency, you do need to win a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin. Now, believe it or not, Pennsylvania is looking a lot better than the state of Florida. How is that possible? Florida should be a reliably Republican state. Pennsylvania, somewhat a center left Democrat State. Well, it's because Governor Tom Wolf, the governor of Pennsylvania, is one of the most unpopular governors in the entire country. His response to the Chinese coronavirus and locking down his entire state has been met with intense backlash. He has an approval rating in the mid-30s because of that. That is translating to support for Republicans and Donald Trump. Florida, with the recent uptick in the virus cases and a elderly population in the state of Florida trending in Biden's direction. So there's actually an argument to be made. President Trump can win the White House without winning the state of Florida. So what are the big picture questions that are going to be asked? Here's the biggest argument that Donald Trump has to make. He has to say, do not vote for me. Vote for a worldview. I represent a philosophy and I represent a movement of stability, of decent families being able to flourish without having to worry about crime and arson and our history being burned down. And my opponent is a figurehead for a movement that wants to rip our country apart from within and delete everything that we represent. I actually think the more the president makes it about big picture ideas and less about himself personally, I think the more successful he's going to be. And not even about policies and not even about laws. I actually think it has to be a referendum in some ways on Joe Biden and his worldview. A referendum on the Democrat mayors all across the country, a referendum on the kind of ideas that they're trying to make mainstream in our country. And I really do believe this. I've been traveling a lot, as I just said, talking to decent, common sense Americans that would never march in a protest, that are far too reasonable to ever engage in a boycott of a business. They're waiting for something to do to show that they're upset. They are. There are millions of people out there that are just waiting patiently and they are decent people that are saying, you tell me when I'll be the first one in the voting booth and you better believe I'm gonna vote for someone who is the decent and reasonable candidate. I think the Biden campaign is actually seeing tracking polling that is troubling them. I think they're seeing very low enthusiasm. I think they're seeing decaying support in the black community because Joe Biden has said people are not black if they do not support him. Something a KKK leader would have said in the 1870s, you're not a black person unless you support me. Incredibly racist thing to say. I think the Biden campaign is more worried than they're showing Say, Charlie, how do you know this? When I travel the country and I turn on Fox News, Biden is running ads on Fox News all across the country. Biden's path to victory is trying to peel away Republican voters into the Democrat column. Hard argument, hard plane to land if you have a radical vice president nominee, that is Kamala Harris, that could presumptively be the president of the United States. So I'm looking at this polling. Donald Trump up a point and a half in Iowa. In Michigan, Joe Biden has fallen six points in the latest tracking poll. In Michigan, Donald Trump In Texas, Donald Trump up 0.2%, which honestly is alarmingly close. That's a longer term, more structural fault line that we can address at a different time. And a new Cato Institute poll said that 72% of conservatives are afraid to speak out. And battleground state polling is showing time and time again that decent, reasonable Americans, people that have three kids, that can't go to church, that might own a couple firearms, that go on a vacation and they earn $85,000 a year, they are worried that a common way of life, a stable society will be ripped underneath them instantaneously and immediately. For very good reason, by the way. And so we look at the state of Arizona. Two weeks ago, Biden was up 5 points in the state of Arizona. Now a Democrat poll commissioned by CNBC and Chains Research, which is a Democrat Research polling has Joe Biden up only two points. And we know that if Joe Biden is up to Donald Trump is actually up too, because of enthusiasm and lake breakers going in Donald Trump's column. These are all very good signs. So I come here as an ambassador of positivity. Not that we're going to win, assuredly, but you have to almost throw the receiver open, to use a football analogy, might look like the wide receiver is completely covered. But wait three and a half seconds and it's going to be nothing but endless yardage to be able to get a touchdown. You understand the analogy I'm using, that this election is far from calcified. It's far. The cake is far from being baked. I can use analogies all day long. And I think that if we are able to make a very coherent and cogent argument that the president is the ambassador of decent America, of a stable life for reasonable people, and Joe Biden represents a movement. And don't make it about Joe Biden. Joe Biden's actually very popular, believe it or not, despite his touching of young girls and embezzling money from China and Palling around with Ted Kennedy and covering from Obama's thuggery. I think some of that will be communicated. I think Joe Biden's favorability will go down by three or four points. But don't bet on that. This is not Hillary Clinton. Okay? But what's different is that the left has shown their colors far more in the last four years than they did the years prior to Hillary Clinton. That was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. The 2020 election should be a referendum on the American left. So we must look at 2016 versus 2020. Hillary Clinton was totally detested. The only person that might actually be as unlikable as Hillary Clinton might be Senator Kamala Harris. People that are in Wisconsin that might have called themselves a Democrat ten years ago that go to church and they just want to raise a family, they do not want a gun grabbing California senator who is nothing but a political opportunist. The former Attorney General of California who instituted the most anti Christian, anti religious liberty orders to all of a sudden become the heir apparent to the White House. If he ends up picking Kamala Harris, I can convince every Christian on the planet, God willing, to go vote for Donald Trump. 82%, according to the Washington Post, 82% of Christians support Donald Trump. Evangelical Christians, I should say. I think that number will go up by 10 points if Senator Kamala Harris ends up being the nominee. Now, Joe Biden is in a very difficult position because he has said, I am going to pick a woman for my running mate. Now, it's a difficult position because, first of all, they're actually admitting that there are two genders and that they are admitting that there are differences between men and women. However, regardless of that, Joe Biden's also in difficult position because every single woman in the Democrat Party just so happens to be a radical Marxist. They don't exactly have moderate Democrat women in leadership that might actually be likely to be a vice presidential nominee. So when Senator Harris was still a candidate and people saw her every single day on cable television and, and she went after Justice Brett Kavanaugh more aggressively than any other senator. Let's make this a referendum on Brett Kavanaugh. Let's make this a referendum on the behavior of the Senate Democrats and how they went after every single one of us. And by the way, the options for Joe Biden are running thin. I think it's very likely that it will be Senator Harris. The whisper campaign has kind of built a cushion around the idea of, of Senator Harris. Politico even had a page where it said Joe Biden's running mate is Kamala Harris. As if they were leaked that information first and they knew it and they had the landing page all created for that. The other candidates that are in the running are Senator Elizabeth Warren, which would be a double dream. It would be twice as good. It would be one of the greatest scenarios we could possibly imagine. So Joe Biden is really stuck in a difficult position, a position that Donald Trump does not have to encounter himself. So the next 30 days you got Joe Biden, that has a very difficult position and a place to choose as vice president. And Donald Trump has to get through the COVID nonsense, the Chinese coronavirus and everything that surrounds that. If Joe Biden selects a mainstream, boring Democrat, then all of a sudden he is going to be faced with an enthusiasm problem and potentially a base revolt within the Democrat Party and unable to build the broad based Obama style coalition that boosted black turnout and boosted turnout amongst younger voters. And I can tell you right now, younger voters are not gonna come out in big numbers for Joe Biden or Senator Harris. Not going to happen in the slightest. So they're faced with that challenge. They are looking at the same enthusiasm data that we are looking at. They are seeing the trend lines go in the wrong direction. They are seeing Joe Biden's favorability numbers in Arizona that I'm looking at right now looks like the stock market after we locked down our country, I mean, it is plummeting. I mean it is going in a direction that if it is sustained itself and there is not a basement, it's not good. I mean, you extrapolate some of these data sets over the next 30 days, even at half of a percentage of that continues, all of a sudden the trend lines will be reversed. And so I come to you with good news, not incredible news that Donald Trump is going to win, but, but maybe reasonable people are starting to see the differences between the two distinct governing styles. It takes 30 to 60 days for a message really to set in. If you think about it, repetition is the soul of memory. Sometimes it takes five or six times to repeat something for it to really be able to be immersed into the zeitgeist of a country. And so for those of us that listen to podcasts every day and do podcasts and talk about this, it's so incredibly obvious for us Democrats. Arson, Trump, not arson. Pretty like a really typical, very easy to articulate choice. Some people who just go to work, who are just trying to survive, it takes 30 to 60 days for that to solidify, to set in to be reflected in polling. And so what does Donald Trump have to do to win the election? Keep the enthusiasm high. Don't do anything that will in any way shape or form deteriorate his very dedicated base. Do not do anything on guns. Do not sign a DACA deal. Do not go after Christians and be very critical of John Roberts. That's basically what you have to do for the conservative base. The more you repeat law and order, the more you repeat civil society, the better to win. Voters in the middle continue to communicate that Joe Biden is the leader and the figurehead for an incredibly divisive movement that does not represent Midwestern values. That's basically what this election is now going to come down to. A collection of three or four Midwestern states and Florida and North Carolina and Arizona. It's a five state race. And Joe Biden has a lot of trouble that he has to explain away because at some point between now and the election, Joe Biden is going to be forced to have to talk unedited, uninterrupted, for more than 10 minutes, maybe 20. This is a challenge for him. This is something that, in fact, I would be so terrified of. You have a candidate that actually cannot cohesively be able to make an argument for more than 15 or 20 minutes that blundering or making such a fatal error in communication that it looks as if he is not equipped to become President United States. And Donald Trump, also, the more he is able to point forward and say, in the next four years, we will be able to do something specific. And we've talked about this on the podcast, what that looks like, thinking big and dreaming big. It's not all bad news out there. In fact, I'm seeing it on the ground, how positive it can be. And, you know, this just shows how deceiving it is on the ground. People are saying, well, Donald Trump is down so many points in the national polls. National polls actually mean nothing. We do not have a popular vote to determine the President of the United States. National polls are actually completely and totally irrelevant. And it has Joe Biden up 8.4 points in the national polls. It doesn't matter if Donald Trump loses New York by 72 points. It just does not matter. So you have to dismiss national polls altogether. They are trying to ruin your spirit. I'm here to tell you to keep your spirit very strong. According to the American Principles Project, it said, should big tech companies such as Google, Facebook and Twitter be allowed to censor speech on their platform if that speech would otherwise be constitutionally protected in the public square. 56% of people in Arizona said no, 63% of people in Georgia said no, 61% of North Carolina, no Pennsylvania, 60%. This is a winning issue. I mean, you can't have 60% of people agree on anything in some of these states. So listen to our sister episode where we talk about this in great depth, where we talk about big tech censorship and what we can do to actually address this issue. Where we go into the hearings on Capitol Hill. Let not your heart be troubled. This is going to be a late breaking election. And every person you persuade, every person you communicate with right now could end up determining this election. It could end up being a couple hundred vote election in Wisconsin. It very well might be. And you have to factor in at least 50,000 fake votes between the states that are peppered in through dead people and Democrat tactics and all the things that they do to try to get Democrats elected. And we've had Tom Fitton talk about voter fraud at length here on the Charlie Kirk Show. Keep the faith. Things are trending in the President's direction. Email me your questions. Freedom charliekirk.com, freedomarliekirk.com if you guys want to win a signed copy of the MAGA doctrine, type in Charlie Kirk showed your podcast provider hit subscribe, give us a five star review, subscribe screenshot it and email us@freedom charliekirk.com get involved with TurningPoint USA. Go to tpusa.com, tpusa.com, get engaged, get involved. Start a group on campus@tpusa.com and please consider supporting our podcast. We are putting out more material than any other conservative podcast on the planet. You can do so by going to charliekirk.comsupport charliekirk.com support. Thanks so much for listening everybody. God bless.
