The Charlie Kirk Show

Episode: How Trump Can Win the ICE Showdown And the Midterms
Date: January 27, 2026
Host: Charlie Kirk
Guests: Larry Schweikart (Author, Historian), Mark Halperin (Editor in Chief—Two Way TV, Host on Megyn Kelly Network), Andrew Colvett (Frequent Contributor)

Overview

This episode dives into two major interlocking themes:

1. How Donald Trump can navigate the political and public relations challenges from the recent ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) operation showdown, particularly in Minneapolis, and how this impacts his broader deportation agenda.
2. The strategic terrain for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms, including voter trends, redistricting, and the divide over immigration.

Charlie Kirk and guests analyze the emerging political opportunities and obstacles, providing both optimistic (“white pill”) and cautionary (“black pill”) outlooks. The conversation swings from GOP optimism in voter registration and demographic shifts, to the real risks from media coverage, Democrat messaging, and public sentiment after controversial law enforcement incidents.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Republican Momentum Heading into 2026 (with Larry Schweikart)

[01:09 – 08:57]

• Retirements & Redistricting Favor GOP:

  • Schweikart highlights a “tide turning” with numerous Democratic retirements (25 announced, catching up to 30 Republican retirements, many of whom were anti-Trump).
  • GOP gains from redistricting: “Republicans are already sitting around 210 to 212 solid, safe seats... probably already over 218 in terms of voter registration.” (Schweikart, 03:26)
  • Arizona’s counties, including blue-leaning Pima, have all trended more Republican since 2024.

• Voter Registration Data:

  • Notable rightward shifts in key states:
    • North Carolina “became a red state last month.”
      (Schweikart, 04:58)
    • Florida: “1.4 million Republican advantage.”
      (Schweikart, 04:58)
    • New Hampshire and Nevada have also swung right, with Nevada flipping to Republican by 3,000 registrations (down from an 88,000 Democrat lead in 2020).
      (Schweikart, 07:51)
  • “Everywhere you look, these numbers are marching steadily toward the Republicans.”

• Democrats on the Back Foot:

  • “The Democrat party is as toxic as any party in American history has ever been.”
    (Schweikart, 08:16)

Notable Quote

“You can’t find one state where Democrats are consistently putting up any winning numbers. They’re all moving…to Republicans.”
— Larry Schweikart [05:17]

2. The Immigration Debate & Winning the Middle

[08:57 – 13:34]

• Independents and the Economy:
  • Independents are “susceptible to heartstring messages” but care more about the economy.
  • If economic trends keep improving by mid-summer, “the number one issue for independents is not going to be immigration.…it’s going to be ‘the economy is pretty good, I’m not going to mess that up.’”
    (Schweikart, 09:37)
• Voter Issue Hierarchy:
  • GOP base has “antibodies and immunities” against left-wing sob stories, but independents may still be swayed.

Notable Quote

“The good news about Indies is they are not wedded to a single issue the way either the left or the right is.”
— Larry Schweikart [10:18]

3. Economic Perception vs. Reality

[11:44 – 13:34]

• Historical Precedent Cautions:
  • Kirk notes: Even if the economy picks up, it might not be soon enough to sway voters (references H.W. Bush losing despite a recovered economy).
  • Schweikart is more optimistic, noting falling gas prices and the delayed but tangible effects of tariffs and foreign investments.
  • Housing remains “sticky” due to “illegals involved in the entire housing market.”
  • “We don’t need to win [independents] by five or six points…just by one point.”
    (Schweikart, 12:32)

4. The Redistricting Chessboard

[13:34 – 17:37]

• Key State Movements:
  • North Carolina +2 red seats; Ohio +2 red; Texas +5 red; Missouri, Kansas, Florida each likely adding red seats after redistricting.
  • California in flux due to district cannibalization; contestation in courts.
  • Net: “GOP gaining between two and four more seats in redistricting, which would put us up in the neighborhood of 216, 217.”
  • Court-driven racial redistricting could push GOP over the 218 majority threshold.
  • “I think Cook is probably a little pessimistic for Republicans. So if Cook is saying 210 to 212 safe, I think that’s a pretty good starting point.”
    (Schweikart, 16:49)

Notable Quote

“Indiana was a disappointment. These people are just idiots.”
— Larry Schweikart [15:54]

5. The Census Controversy

[16:49 – 18:03]

• Counting of illegal immigrants in the 2020 census criticized as distorting representation (“There is no reality in which that makes any sense to the founder’s vision.” — Kirk, 17:06)
• Calls for a new census, possibly crowdfunded (“Trump could do a TikTok fundraiser and raise that money in 30 seconds.” — Schweikart, 17:37)

6. The ICE Operation Political Battle: Messaging, Backlash & Strategy (with Mark Halperin)

[19:26 – 30:04]

• White House Pivot:

  • Latest WH strategy is a 3-pronged messaging shift:
    1. Making Tom Homans the face rather than Secretary Noem.
    2. Admitting need for procedural changes to avoid damaging images.
    3. Emphasizing popular parts of the president’s immigration agenda.
  • “There’s no ambiguity. The president suffered political damage over this [ICE raid in Minneapolis].”
    (Halperin, 20:15)

• Rapid-Fire News Cycles:

  • Halperin and Colvett agree: Trump’s ability to drive the news cycle is unparalleled—scandals and controversies can be replaced “two segments from now” due to Trump’s unique style.
  • Halperin: “The president’s one of the best politicians any of us have ever seen. If he wants to turn the page…he’s got a pretty good chance to do that.”
    (Halperin, 21:48)

• Cooperation & Compromise:

  • Prospects of cooperative compromise in blue cities might allow a "smaller federal footprint," with local law enforcement cooperating to detain criminals for ICE, even if sanctuary status technically remains.
  • “There’s a middle ground between Waltz’s capitulation completely and Waltz cooperating…and I think…if those two things [happen], that would allow ICE and Border Patrol to make their footprint…smaller.”
    (Halperin, 25:21)

7. Democrat Strategy & ICE Funding Showdown

[23:18 – 24:37]

• Democrats' Leverage in ICE Showdown Limited:
  • Although some Democrats threaten to defund ICE/Border Patrol, Halperin notes ICE is already funded by the “big beautiful bill,” so threats of a government shutdown won’t deliver desired leverage.
  • Some “win-win” may be possible if both sides can claim victories through symbolic moves or small substantive changes.

8. The Minneapolis Dilemma: Base Enthusiasm, Indie Doubts

[27:04 – 29:07]

• Media Wins for the Left:
  • Kirk worries Democrats and progressive activists are “winning the information war” by turning ICE confrontations and violence into viral moments.
  • “They win when bad things happen because ICE are getting confronted in the streets. Somebody gets shot, somebody gets killed. That’s actually a win for them.”
    (Kirk, 27:24)
• Desire for Normalcy:
  • Halperin believes most voters, even in blue cities, ultimately “would like the chaos to end” and favor a settlement that reduces confrontations, even if activist minorities don’t.

9. What Trump Should Do Next

[31:14 – 35:14]

• Avoid Over-Focus on Tactics:
  • Halperin: The President must “do the right thing for the American people.” Focus on restoring order and good governance, not just winning immediate partisan tactical fights.
• Handling Investigations & Impeachment if Congress Flips:
  • If Democrats gain the House, expect a barrage of investigations and possible weekly impeachment moves—not just as a distraction, but a bandwidth suck.
  • Yet, a House loss could force Trump to “pass some things in a bipartisan way,” which won’t please the full MAGA base but is sometimes a necessity.

Notable Quote

“People don’t want to see government officials telling bald-faced lies that are contradicted by what they can see with their own eyes. They don’t want to see American citizens shot…They don’t want an enforcement operation that creates chaos…when the whole point of this is to create more order and less chaos.”
— Mark Halperin [33:43]

10. Messaging & Policy Correction

[37:31 – 39:09]

• Rational Policies Sought:
  • Kirk and Halperin agree that a rational compromise—smaller federal footprint, local cooperation—would benefit everyone’s safety and credibility, and help refocus on dangerous criminals.
  • “We bungled the messaging right at the jump. I think that’s fair and we can do better. And we will.”
    (Kirk, 39:09)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Redistricting and Party Trends:

  “Every single county in Arizona moved to the right, including Pima.”
  — Larry Schweikart [04:44]

• On the Toxicity of Democrat Brand:

  “It is as toxic as any party in American history has ever been.”
  — Larry Schweikart [08:16]

• On Pivotal Optics:

  “There’s no ambiguity. The president suffered political damage over this.”
  — Mark Halperin [20:15]

• On Possible Compromise:

  “There’s a middle ground between Waltz’s capitulation completely and Waltz cooperating.”
  — Mark Halperin [25:24]

• On the Voter Mood:

  “The majority of those people would like normalcy. The majority of the city…would like the chaos to end.”
  — Mark Halperin [27:58]

• On Information War:

  “They win when bad things happen because ICE are getting confronted in the streets. Somebody gets shot…that’s actually a win for them.”
  — Charlie Kirk [27:24]

• On Effective Policy:

  “You need rational policies. They can defend what they want to do with deportations. They can’t defend saying a guy who shows up with a gun is a threat automatically.”
  — Mark Halperin [38:17]

Important Timestamps by Segment

• [01:09] Intro to Larry Schweikart, GOP optimism
• [03:26] Schweikart on retirements, voter registration
• [04:58] State-by-state rightward shift details
• [07:51] Nevada and New Hampshire flip
• [09:37] Independents’ susceptibility and economic focus
• [13:34] Impact of redistricting on GOP
• [16:49] Cook Political safe seat analysis
• [19:26] Mark Halperin discusses White House communications pivot
• [20:15] Political damage and presidential optics
• [25:21] Plausibility of local-federal cooperation
• [27:24] The information war—protester advantage
• [31:14] What should Trump do next? Halperin’s advice
• [33:43] On fixing enforcement optics and public trust
• [39:09] Admitting messaging failures, need for improvement

Summary Tone & Takeaways

• The episode is unflinchingly partisan, with Kirk and Schweikart painting a bright picture for the GOP and highlighting left-wing missteps and toxicity.
• Mark Halperin provides a more circumspect, pragmatic analysis, focusing on the importance of optics, public order, and doing good governance rather than pure tactical wins.
• All express the critical importance of smart policy, message discipline, and adapting to fast-changing news cycles, particularly when law enforcement operations are in the public eye.
• Despite strong optimism about midterms, there's awareness that mishandling ICE or messaging blunders could jeopardize gains with independents and moderates, even amid demographic trends moving right.
• The information war is seen as ongoing, with both sides needing to evolve their tactics and communication to maintain public support and electoral momentum.

For more detailed election trend analysis and updates, visit charliekirk.com and follow the guests on their respective platforms.