How Trump Can Win the ICE Showdown And the Midterms

Summary

The Charlie Kirk Show

Episode: How Trump Can Win the ICE Showdown And the Midterms
Date: January 27, 2026
Host: Charlie Kirk
Guests: Larry Schweikart (Author, Historian), Mark Halperin (Editor in Chief—Two Way TV, Host on Megyn Kelly Network), Andrew Colvett (Frequent Contributor)

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Overview

This episode dives into two major interlocking themes:

1. How Donald Trump can navigate the political and public relations challenges from the recent ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) operation showdown, particularly in Minneapolis, and how this impacts his broader deportation agenda.
2. The strategic terrain for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms, including voter trends, redistricting, and the divide over immigration.

Charlie Kirk and guests analyze the emerging political opportunities and obstacles, providing both optimistic (“white pill”) and cautionary (“black pill”) outlooks. The conversation swings from GOP optimism in voter registration and demographic shifts, to the real risks from media coverage, Democrat messaging, and public sentiment after controversial law enforcement incidents.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Republican Momentum Heading into 2026 (with Larry Schweikart)

[01:09 – 08:57]

• Retirements & Redistricting Favor GOP:

  • Schweikart highlights a “tide turning” with numerous Democratic retirements (25 announced, catching up to 30 Republican retirements, many of whom were anti-Trump).
  • GOP gains from redistricting: “Republicans are already sitting around 210 to 212 solid, safe seats... probably already over 218 in terms of voter registration.” (Schweikart, 03:26)
  • Arizona’s counties, including blue-leaning Pima, have all trended more Republican since 2024.

• Voter Registration Data:

  • Notable rightward shifts in key states:
    • North Carolina “became a red state last month.”
      (Schweikart, 04:58)
    • Florida: “1.4 million Republican advantage.”
      (Schweikart, 04:58)
    • New Hampshire and Nevada have also swung right, with Nevada flipping to Republican by 3,000 registrations (down from an 88,000 Democrat lead in 2020).
      (Schweikart, 07:51)
  • “Everywhere you look, these numbers are marching steadily toward the Republicans.”

• Democrats on the Back Foot:

  • “The Democrat party is as toxic as any party in American history has ever been.”
    (Schweikart, 08:16)

Notable Quote

“You can’t find one state where Democrats are consistently putting up any winning numbers. They’re all moving…to Republicans.”
— Larry Schweikart [05:17]

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2. The Immigration Debate & Winning the Middle

[08:57 – 13:34]

• Independents and the Economy:
  • Independents are “susceptible to heartstring messages” but care more about the economy.
  • If economic trends keep improving by mid-summer, “the number one issue for independents is not going to be immigration.…it’s going to be ‘the economy is pretty good, I’m not going to mess that up.’”
    (Schweikart, 09:37)
• Voter Issue Hierarchy:
  • GOP base has “antibodies and immunities” against left-wing sob stories, but independents may still be swayed.

Notable Quote

“The good news about Indies is they are not wedded to a single issue the way either the left or the right is.”
— Larry Schweikart [10:18]

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3. Economic Perception vs. Reality

[11:44 – 13:34]

• Historical Precedent Cautions:
  • Kirk notes: Even if the economy picks up, it might not be soon enough to sway voters (references H.W. Bush losing despite a recovered economy).
  • Schweikart is more optimistic, noting falling gas prices and the delayed but tangible effects of tariffs and foreign investments.
  • Housing remains “sticky” due to “illegals involved in the entire housing market.”
  • “We don’t need to win [independents] by five or six points…just by one point.”
    (Schweikart, 12:32)

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4. The Redistricting Chessboard

[13:34 – 17:37]

• Key State Movements:
  • North Carolina +2 red seats; Ohio +2 red; Texas +5 red; Missouri, Kansas, Florida each likely adding red seats after redistricting.
  • California in flux due to district cannibalization; contestation in courts.
  • Net: “GOP gaining between two and four more seats in redistricting, which would put us up in the neighborhood of 216, 217.”
  • Court-driven racial redistricting could push GOP over the 218 majority threshold.
  • “I think Cook is probably a little pessimistic for Republicans. So if Cook is saying 210 to 212 safe, I think that’s a pretty good starting point.”
    (Schweikart, 16:49)

Notable Quote

“Indiana was a disappointment. These people are just idiots.”
— Larry Schweikart [15:54]

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5. The Census Controversy

[16:49 – 18:03]

• Counting of illegal immigrants in the 2020 census criticized as distorting representation (“There is no reality in which that makes any sense to the founder’s vision.” — Kirk, 17:06)
• Calls for a new census, possibly crowdfunded (“Trump could do a TikTok fundraiser and raise that money in 30 seconds.” — Schweikart, 17:37)

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6. The ICE Operation Political Battle: Messaging, Backlash & Strategy (with Mark Halperin)

[19:26 – 30:04]

• White House Pivot:

  • Latest WH strategy is a 3-pronged messaging shift:
    1. Making Tom Homans the face rather than Secretary Noem.
    2. Admitting need for procedural changes to avoid damaging images.
    3. Emphasizing popular parts of the president’s immigration agenda.
  • “There’s no ambiguity. The president suffered political damage over this [ICE raid in Minneapolis].”
    (Halperin, 20:15)

• Rapid-Fire News Cycles:

  • Halperin and Colvett agree: Trump’s ability to drive the news cycle is unparalleled—scandals and controversies can be replaced “two segments from now” due to Trump’s unique style.
  • Halperin: “The president’s one of the best politicians any of us have ever seen. If he wants to turn the page…he’s got a pretty good chance to do that.”
    (Halperin, 21:48)

• Cooperation & Compromise:

  • Prospects of cooperative compromise in blue cities might allow a "smaller federal footprint," with local law enforcement cooperating to detain criminals for ICE, even if sanctuary status technically remains.
  • “There’s a middle ground between Waltz’s capitulation completely and Waltz cooperating…and I think…if those two things [happen], that would allow ICE and Border Patrol to make their footprint…smaller.”
    (Halperin, 25:21)

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7. Democrat Strategy & ICE Funding Showdown

[23:18 – 24:37]

• Democrats' Leverage in ICE Showdown Limited:
  • Although some Democrats threaten to defund ICE/Border Patrol, Halperin notes ICE is already funded by the “big beautiful bill,” so threats of a government shutdown won’t deliver desired leverage.
  • Some “win-win” may be possible if both sides can claim victories through symbolic moves or small substantive changes.

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8. The Minneapolis Dilemma: Base Enthusiasm, Indie Doubts

[27:04 – 29:07]

• Media Wins for the Left:
  • Kirk worries Democrats and progressive activists are “winning the information war” by turning ICE confrontations and violence into viral moments.
  • “They win when bad things happen because ICE are getting confronted in the streets. Somebody gets shot, somebody gets killed. That’s actually a win for them.”
    (Kirk, 27:24)
• Desire for Normalcy:
  • Halperin believes most voters, even in blue cities, ultimately “would like the chaos to end” and favor a settlement that reduces confrontations, even if activist minorities don’t.

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9. What Trump Should Do Next

[31:14 – 35:14]

• Avoid Over-Focus on Tactics:
  • Halperin: The President must “do the right thing for the American people.” Focus on restoring order and good governance, not just winning immediate partisan tactical fights.
• Handling Investigations & Impeachment if Congress Flips:
  • If Democrats gain the House, expect a barrage of investigations and possible weekly impeachment moves—not just as a distraction, but a bandwidth suck.
  • Yet, a House loss could force Trump to “pass some things in a bipartisan way,” which won’t please the full MAGA base but is sometimes a necessity.

Notable Quote

“People don’t want to see government officials telling bald-faced lies that are contradicted by what they can see with their own eyes. They don’t want to see American citizens shot…They don’t want an enforcement operation that creates chaos…when the whole point of this is to create more order and less chaos.”
— Mark Halperin [33:43]

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10. Messaging & Policy Correction

[37:31 – 39:09]

• Rational Policies Sought:
  • Kirk and Halperin agree that a rational compromise—smaller federal footprint, local cooperation—would benefit everyone’s safety and credibility, and help refocus on dangerous criminals.
  • “We bungled the messaging right at the jump. I think that’s fair and we can do better. And we will.”
    (Kirk, 39:09)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Redistricting and Party Trends:

  “Every single county in Arizona moved to the right, including Pima.”
  — Larry Schweikart [04:44]

• On the Toxicity of Democrat Brand:

  “It is as toxic as any party in American history has ever been.”
  — Larry Schweikart [08:16]

• On Pivotal Optics:

  “There’s no ambiguity. The president suffered political damage over this.”
  — Mark Halperin [20:15]

• On Possible Compromise:

  “There’s a middle ground between Waltz’s capitulation completely and Waltz cooperating.”
  — Mark Halperin [25:24]

• On the Voter Mood:

  “The majority of those people would like normalcy. The majority of the city…would like the chaos to end.”
  — Mark Halperin [27:58]

• On Information War:

  “They win when bad things happen because ICE are getting confronted in the streets. Somebody gets shot…that’s actually a win for them.”
  — Charlie Kirk [27:24]

• On Effective Policy:

  “You need rational policies. They can defend what they want to do with deportations. They can’t defend saying a guy who shows up with a gun is a threat automatically.”
  — Mark Halperin [38:17]

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Important Timestamps by Segment

• [01:09] Intro to Larry Schweikart, GOP optimism
• [03:26] Schweikart on retirements, voter registration
• [04:58] State-by-state rightward shift details
• [07:51] Nevada and New Hampshire flip
• [09:37] Independents’ susceptibility and economic focus
• [13:34] Impact of redistricting on GOP
• [16:49] Cook Political safe seat analysis
• [19:26] Mark Halperin discusses White House communications pivot
• [20:15] Political damage and presidential optics
• [25:21] Plausibility of local-federal cooperation
• [27:24] The information war—protester advantage
• [31:14] What should Trump do next? Halperin’s advice
• [33:43] On fixing enforcement optics and public trust
• [39:09] Admitting messaging failures, need for improvement

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Summary Tone & Takeaways

• The episode is unflinchingly partisan, with Kirk and Schweikart painting a bright picture for the GOP and highlighting left-wing missteps and toxicity.
• Mark Halperin provides a more circumspect, pragmatic analysis, focusing on the importance of optics, public order, and doing good governance rather than pure tactical wins.
• All express the critical importance of smart policy, message discipline, and adapting to fast-changing news cycles, particularly when law enforcement operations are in the public eye.
• Despite strong optimism about midterms, there's awareness that mishandling ICE or messaging blunders could jeopardize gains with independents and moderates, even amid demographic trends moving right.
• The information war is seen as ongoing, with both sides needing to evolve their tactics and communication to maintain public support and electoral momentum.

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For more detailed election trend analysis and updates, visit charliekirk.com and follow the guests on their respective platforms.

Transcript

[Charlie Kirk]

My name is Charlie Kirk. I run the largest pro American student organization in the country, fighting for the future of our republic. My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth. If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable. But if the most important thing is doing good, you will end up purposeful. College is a scam, everybody. You got to stop sending your kids to college. You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible. Go start a Turning Point USA College chapter. Go start a Turning Point USA High School chapter. Go find out how your church can get involved. Sign up and become an activist. I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade. Most important decision I ever made in my life. And I encourage you to do the same. Here I am, Lord.

[Mark Halperin]

Use me.

[Charlie Kirk]

Buckle up, everybody.

[Mark Halperin]

Here we go.

[Charlie Kirk]

The Charlie Kirk show is proudly sponsored by Preserve Gold. But the leading gold and silver experts and the only precious metals company I recommend to my family, friends and viewers.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

All right, welcome back. Hour two, the Charlie Kirk show is underway. Excited about this next guest. He's a contrarian, he's a filmmaker, he's an author, he's a historian. We had him on when I think in the campaign season quite a bit with Charlie ahead of 2024. And he had a way of looking at things that will make you think and if you are prepared or willing, black pill right now, don't. Because there's actually things you need to be looking at that will give you hope, optimism, whether that's the midterms heading into 2028 about deportation. That's Larry Schweikart, the real Larry Schweikart again. He's an author, historian, PhD, New York Times number one best selling author, filmmaker, rock drummer, America's history teacher. Larry, welcome back to the show.

[Larry Schweikart]

Yeah, don't forget the rock drummer part. That's really important. A study came out today showing that bison are returning to the Illinois prairie to drumming. I thought, okay, about time.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Bison.

[Larry Schweikart]

I need to go. Yep, bison for the first time in 200.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Where are they coming? Wild bison.

[Larry Schweikart]

Yeah, I don't know. Probably leaving Minnesota because it's so crazy, but.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah, right. They're avoiding the.

[Andrew Colvett]

I'm just thinking of driving. I don't want to. Man, hitting a bison would probably really.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah, I think about that sometimes as well, you know, like I sort of bemoan the loss of the real west, the frontier. But then I think, you know, I'm, you know, I don't contending with grizzly Bears and actual wolves and bison.

[Andrew Colvett]

I'm a German by heritage so I feel that like deep deepness in my soul. If you fly over like Europe and you see everything subdivided into little plots of like developed land. So we conquered the West. I like going to South Dakota and just seeing agriculture as far as the eye can see.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

I'm a conservation especially because it keeps.

[Andrew Colvett]

Libs from moving there.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Well that's true. Well, open carry gives, keeps lives from moving there too. Larry, I love the way your mind works. You and I spoke briefly on the phone last week. So I mean there's a lot of doomerism happening. There's a lot of black pilling, especially with you. Look at Minneapolis, it's basically a war zone. You have a different way of seeing what's happening right now in the country. Give us your 30,000 foot view. Are you optimistic? Are you pessimistic? What are you thinking? What are you seeing?

[Larry Schweikart]

Well, I think a lot of concern is over the 2026 midterms and I'm not concerned. Today Eleanor HOLMES Norton of D.C. announced her retirement. She is Democrat number 25 to do so. Now last year a whole bunch of Republicans announced their retirements and I'm not sure why. A lot of them were older, a lot of them were anti Trumpers and I said just wait, the Democrats will catch up. And so far the number is 30 Rs and now 25Ds. And I think some of those Rs have already been replaced or are being replaced like Marjorie Taylor Greene. So I think when all the redistricting is done, the Republicans are going to have a four or five seat lock on the House because there are just not enough toss up states to make a difference. The Republicans are already sitting around 210 to 212 solid safe seats. And so when you look at all the redistricting and so forth, you're probably already over 218 in terms of voter registration. This has been moving toward Republicans for almost 18 straight months and Democrats have no answer for this. So they kept saying, well wait till 2026 and the numbers start to come out. Well, we had Arizona's number, Arizona's first out of the gate for 2026. And guess what? Every single county in Arizona moved to the right, including Pima.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Let's go.

[Larry Schweikart]

Which has lost almost one full percent of its Democrat lead in the last year and a half. So these are staggering numbers. You can't find one state where Democrats are consistently putting up any winning numbers. They're all moving To Republicans to the point that in North Carolina, that state became a red state last month. It's astounding. It was Democrat plus 175,000 in 2025, 2024. Florida obviously is now off the charts. It's 1.4 million Republicans advantage. But every state where we can measure it is moving right. And I think that's a terrifying omen for Democrats. So you go up to Minnesota and I've harped on this. I think Minnesota is ground zero for breaking the entire Democrat party. The voter fraud and, and the obviously the illegal immigration fraud up there. I think that it's tentacles stretch to every other state, but particularly to California, which is the big enchilada that'll be the one to be targeted after Minnesota falls. And nobody's given up, nobody's backing down. I love to see it. Despite all the hand wringing rhinos and all the Democrats calling for a government shutdown, nobody is backing up.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

See, this is why you need to always take a step back when everybody else is losing their minds. You got to stay competent, you got to stay confident and you got to stay calm. You got to focus on these things because this is what Turning Point Action is doing. So yeah, there's all this hand wringing. There's people that are freaking out about Minneapolis. You've got Governor Stitt, you've got Lady Graham. These people are blinking, they're bending the knee. Meanwhile, Turning Point Action is building a standing army of ballot chasers in what we're calling the red wall New Hampshire, where we have an advantage, more conservatives than liberals. It's the independent vote that'll swing that state. But still it's a really good sign that you have more registered Republicans. And we're going to be keep, we're going to keep doing that work by the way. New Hampshire, Nevada, we're making gains in Nevada, Arizona, we're all over this state. We're making gains every single day. So while everybody else is losing their minds and they're getting weak in the knees, we're putting up wins. We're registering voters in all of these. And then you talk about the redistricting. We've spent a lot of time on this. We're actually going to be primary a lot of these state senators in Indiana that refused to play hardball now and apparently they made some handshake deal, Larry, with Maryland. Now Maryland's gonna redistrict anyways.

[Larry Schweikart]

They lie. Of course they lie.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Suckers.

[Larry Schweikart]

I'm glad you brought up Nevada, New Hampshire. These are two of the states that Seth Keshel and I follow a lot. New Hampshire has moved almost more than a half point redder than it was in 2024. November. Nevada has now flipped to a red state. Not by a lot, by about 3,000, but it was 18,000 Democrat lead in 2024 and it was 88,000 in 2020. So everywhere you look these, these numbers are marching steadily toward the Republicans. Now you mentioned indies and the independents of course are important everywhere. But one thing that I think these numbers are telling us is that people do not want to be associated in any way, shape or form with the Democrat party. It is as toxic as any party in American history has ever been. And it's a two step process. They leave the Democrats in step one and, and step two, they become Republicans. So I think we're in phenomenal shape as far as that goes.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

What's your vibe on the independents when it comes specifically to this topic of immigration? If anybody's gonna get weak on it, if they're gonna give in to the sob stories, I think the conservative base has developed antibodies and immunities from the same old tactics of the left wing. Ink that gets spilled. Oh, this is terrible. Obama comes out with this statement talking about masked agents and they're rightly upset and we need to. Our values are under assault more than ever before. Republicans don't hear that stuff. They look at that and they rightly are skeptical. They rightly push back independents. Where are they at on immigration?

[Larry Schweikart]

They are probably far more susceptible to these kinds of heartstring messages. But the good news is that independents are all over the map in terms of what is the most important issue to them because usually it almost always comes down to the economy. And, and so if the economy as it has already done, continues to pick up, you start to see more and more jobs, prices continue to fall and by say mid summer, everything is looking really good in terms of the economy. Believe me, the number one issue for independence is not going to be immigration or what's happening in Minnesota. It's going to be on the economy is pretty good. I'm not going to mess that up. Yeah. So the good news about Indies is they are not wedded to a single issue the way either the left or the right is.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

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[Charlie Kirk]

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[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Larry, I got two questions for you. You mentioned the economy and that that is a huge piece of the pie here, especially for Indies. The problem is if you just look at historical precedent, you're a historian, you look at H.W. bush. The recession ended in the spring of 91. He lost the election in 92. You've got inflation from Joe Biden that is, I mean you still go to the store. It's obscene. When you try and feed a family, those prices are not going to drop all the way back to their pre 2020 levels. Emotionally is the electorate. Do we have enough time to sort of see those gains and that growth in the GDP and real wages catch up with inflation to the point where we get electorally rewarded?

[Larry Schweikart]

Yeah, I think so. Not all prices are falling but I can look at my gas price on the corner. It's already dropped by 50 or 60 cents cents since the last year. And we have gas from California which is always 20 or 30 cents higher. The stickiest part of all prices is not the grocery store, although that's still a little bit high. But it's in housing and, and we have this disconnect in the housing market that isn't partially due to having illegals involved in the entire housing market, all that kind of stuff. The tariffs are going to kick in. All those investments that the foreigners made last year and promised to Trump are starting to break ground. So yeah, I think enough is going to change that. It will affect the independent voters and we don't need a lot, we don't need to win them by five or six points. We need to win them by one point because as I say, the Republicans are winning the voter registration game almost everywhere.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

So, yeah, and I'm looking at some numbers here, 275 if you want to throw it up. But it looks like we're getting good numbers on transportation, utilities, but education, housing, healthcare, having a family, those are all tricky. Right. And those are not numbers that you can move quickly. But I hope you're right. Listen, if we put up a few more numbers of 4.5% GDP growth, 5%, that would be amazing. I can't remember the last time we saw numbers that high. I do believe that's going to have a psychological impact. Second question for you, Larry, though, is this redistricting? If you would. We got four minutes left in this segment. Go through a couple of the states that you're watching. Obviously, we gained some in Florida, Texas. We lost some in California. That's getting challenged in the courts. You think we're going to be at 210, 212 safe Republican districts. And are those really safe? Because I hope those models aren't looking at like, you know, Hispanic votes from 2024 because we're losing. We've lost a little bit of ground off those numbers.

[Larry Schweikart]

Well, the, the constantly shifting redistricting numbers show that North Carolina has added to red, Ohio's added two red. Texas has added five red. Missouri's added one red. Kansas supposedly is going to redistrict, will add one red. Florida will redistrict. They will add between two to three red. You've then seen one law seat in Utah due to the court decision there. So that's one blue. You have arguably five in California. But as you mentioned, that's being challenged. And California is a little tricky because in order to get those districts, they've had to cannibalize some very, very close Democrat districts. So I don't think it's a given that all five of those end up in Republican in Democrat hands or I don't think it's they may get all five of those and lose one or two others. So I don't think it's necessarily a net gain of 5 in California for Democrats. Indiana was a disappointment. These people are just idiots. I don't know what else you can say about them. When I go through all the numbers and again, they keep shifting, I look at the GOP gaining between two and four more seats in redistricting, which would put us up in the neighborhood of 216, 217. But then you have the elephant in the room, which is the racial redistricting decision coming from the Supreme Court. And what. No one can answer me. And I've asked this to my court guru, Zen Master. I've asked it to other people who deal with the court. How many of the racial redistricting seats are going to be covered in the seats that have already been redistricted in many of these states? And nobody can give me an answer on that. Louisiana does plan to redistrict. That'll be another red seat. So let's assume we pick up two or three from the racial redistricting. You're over 218 right there. Now, how many are safe? Safe, Safe. I'm just going by Cook, and I think Cook is probably a little pessimistic for Republicans. So if cook is saying 210 to 212 safe, I think that's a pretty good starting point.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah. I mean, it. You know, one of the things that I'll just continue raging against is, is this botched census in 2020. You know, we should not be counting illegals on a census. There is no reality in which that makes any sense to the founder's vision. Blake. Sorry.

[Andrew Colvett]

Well, I mean that we struggle with the fact that there's, like, court rulings to that effect and everything. What's outrageous to me is just the way they will sometimes, like, estimate things. And also just that the census happened in 2020 during COVID and so it happened. Absolute bizarre moment for the country in so many ways.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

I think Larry or Lutnick should just call a new census and let. Let it get challenged in court. Fight it if we lose. But at least we.

[Andrew Colvett]

The challenge is you'd have to fund it.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

We'll find the funding. We'll pull it from somewhere.

[Larry Schweikart]

I mean, Trump could do a, you know, a TikTok fundraiser and raise that money in 30 seconds.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

I would donate to it. We would. We would do. We would do promotions on the show to raise for it.

[Larry Schweikart]

Larry, last important thing about Minnesota, I wanna make this point. Seth Keshel has said twice that Minnesota would have voted for Trump had it not been for all the fraudulent votes there. That's something else to keep in mind, a reason to win in Minnesota.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah. Well, and certainly the demographic replacement, immigration with all the Somalis is certainly playing a role there too. Larry Schweikart, thank you for the white pill. Now we're gonna have Mark Halperin on for the black pill. So little yin and yang, little to and fro. Every day, Americans make Choices that shape our country's future right down to which cell phone provider we support. Here's what most people don't realize. Patriot Mobile isn't just a wireless provider. They're an activist organization funded by selling top tier cell phone service. They've been on the front lines defending our freedoms long before it was cool to do so. Standing in the gap when others wouldn't. The best part is they deliver prioritized premium service on all three major US Networks, giving you the same or even better coverage backed by 100% US based customer support. Get unlimited data plans, mobile hotspots, international roaming and more. And when you switch to Patriot Mobile, you'll help grow a movement that fuels the Christian conservative cause. Every bill you pay helps advance the values of family, faith and freedom. Switching is easier than ever. Activate in minutes. Keep your number, keep your phone or upgrade. Take a stand today.

[Charlie Kirk]

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[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Mark Halperin joins us now. Mark, welcome back to the show. Editor in chief of Two Way TV and host of NextUp on the Megyn Kelly Network. Mark, you have a very, you are one of the most, I would say, plugged in commentators, thinkers about this space. I'm fully expecting you to give me bad news about the politics of deportation, that we're losing the information battle, especially with what's going on with this recent shooting. Am I right? Is that where your head is at?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, it was true four hours ago. It's clear that the White House, after getting a lot of input, including directly the president this weekend, are shifting and it's happening in real time with Caroline's briefing. It's a three pronged process. One is to make Homans the face of this as opposed to Secretary Noem. And he's headed to Minnesota and I'll be curious to see how much TV he's doing as compared to Secretary Noem and Stephen Miller. Two is to acknowledge that there need to be changes in how this goes to minimize the chances that there are images that are damaging to the president's agenda and, and to this mission. And there's no doubt they've been damaging you. You can cite all sorts of mitigating factors and concerns about signal chats or whether someone should show up to protest with a concealed weapon. There's all sorts of things people can raise. But the reality is there's no ambiguity. The president suffered political damage over this. And then lastly, as Caroline's doing right now, is to emphasize the portions of the president's immigration agenda that are not just somewhat popular, but that are exceedingly popular, and to try to get more of the conversation to back on that terrain, as opposed to what has been the view of many Republicans who are super supportive of the president. A failed mission. Not entirely, but in many respects in Minneapolis.

[Andrew Colvett]

Yeah, Mark. So we can see that there's some of that effort to pivot. You've been an observer of politics for a long time. What's your sense on how successful that's likely to be? Because I think about there's sort of two competing impulses, which is people will remember the most resonant, emotional, visual moment, which could be this. But also the Trump administration news cycles move so fast, we could be on a completely new thing two weeks from now. I think about the Greenland drama, which already feels a century ago.

[Mark Halperin]

Two weeks from now, two segments from now, we could already be on something new. Look, the president sending home and taking a call from Governor Waltz and having a readout from the president, Truth Social, saying it's a positive call. The president's one of the best politicians any of us have ever seen. And if he wants to turn the page and send this in a different direction or take it off the front pages, he's got a pretty good chance to do that. And that's what we're in the midst of doing. So if you're asking me what the chances are, I'd say better than 50%. As usual. He's up against the liberal dominant media, as usual. He's got to do many other things. This isn't his only focus. But the president has a lot of power to change the narrative, and I think we're seeing that happen right now in real time. And I think the chances are better than 50% to put this back on more favorable terrain without disappointing those who say can't give the liberals a win or those who say the immigration mission must continue. I think he can do both those things. He was responsible. Take the last thing I'll say, take the politics out of it. Some people think that's naive. Well, he's not the. He's not the campaigner in chief. He's not the president of the Republican Party or the MAGA movement. He's the president of the United States. And doing something with ice and border patrol in an American city is better done, more effectively done with the cooperation of the mayor and the Governor, and I think they're going to try to secure that now.

[Andrew Colvett]

So the flip side of this is the president can make the moves he wants, but there's also the Democrats. We've heard Senator Schiff and others talk about let's make a giant defund the government showdown over whether ICE gets any more funding, whether the Border Patrol gets any more funding. Do you think Democrats will want this battle where they'll escalate to massive war over the Border Patrol and ice, or do you think they're likely to back down if the president is giving them a bit of an off ramp?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, last night they wanted to fight, let's see, with the changes the president's making, if they still want it. And remember, as you know, ICE is funded. ICE was funded by the big beautiful bill. So this budget showdown that the Democrats say they're willing to precipitate, even if it leads to shutting down, the government is not going to actually get them what they want. But the president should want some cooperation for the symbolism and the optics and the politics, but also the substance. So if Republicans have to give something to make the mission work more effectively, they may, well, they may want to do that. And if that gets the Democrats to the table to keep there from being a shutdown, that seems like a win win. So I don't think it's impossible to avoid a shutdown, in part because, as I said, the Democrats don't have the leverage they might because ICE is already funded.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

So, Mark, I know you're reacting to this readout from the Tim Waltz call that President Trump put out. I still, you know, I'm incredulous that this would actually happen the way that you're suggesting that there would be actual cooperation like we experienced in the Obama years. Right. Obama, I think, is, you know, listen, it's a good Talking point for U.S. deporter in Chief. What was really happening there was that blue districts were blue municipalities were coordinating with immigration enforcement. They were handing over criminals in jails, in prisons when there was a detainer request. Is that what you're suggesting is going to happen in Minneapolis, that this could be the compromise that's reached?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, cooperation between Governor Waltz and Donald Trump is as far fetched and outlandish as a friendly Oval Office meeting between Mayor Moudani and the president. That happened, dudes. Right now, the level of cooperation between them remains to be seen, but apparently they took that meeting and made themselves texting buddies. One of the things that Caroline said at the briefing and that the president talked about over the weekend is they want to have Congress outlaw sanctuary cities. That's not going to happen. But there is a middle ground between Walt's capitulation completely and Walt's cooperating. And I think one of the big measures, two big measures that I've heard both sides talk about as possibilities. One is the local police should be helping here. They shouldn't be just turning their heads the other way and not showing up when there's activity on the streets that they could help defuse. And then, number two, it's a sanctuary city, but they can find a way to make the process of deporting people who leave local law enforcement control and then can be deported. They can make that easier. They don't have to completely turn their heads away from that. And I think if those two things are done, that would allow ICE and Border Patrol to make their footprint in the city smaller. And this is a, this is the George Floyd city. This is a very blue city. The people who are protesting have not quite become professionals yet, but they're semi pro. But I think if those two things happened and the footprint decreased, people could go back to being Minnesotans rather than warriors for protesting a lawful and approved federal law enforcement activity.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

And Mark, I love where your head's at. I mean, all this makes sense, but nothing makes sense when you're dealing with these radical leftists.

[Andrew Colvett]

I mean, they feel very amped up to me. I just, I can't help but wonder if they Democrats might want to back off. But I see, I can see the people on TikTok. You can see the people on TikTok on Blue Sky. They're saying, like, we need to shoot.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

ICE officers, so let's game this out here, Mark. So they're winning currently, as of four hours ago, the information war, right. I saw it on Twitter X all weekend. I mean, the shooting unleashes them. They win when bad things happen because ICE are getting confronted in the streets. Somebody gets shot, somebody gets killed. That's actually a win for them. So why would they want to back down when this tactic is seemingly working? Why would Governor Waltz hand any cooperation or any sort of political win to President Trump?

[Mark Halperin]

There are some who wouldn't want to, but I believe, having spent a lot of time in the Twin Cities, I believe that the majority of those people would like normalcy. The majority of the city, regardless of an individual's politics and the suburbs, would like the chaos to end. And like I said, the. This is, this is a harder city to calm down. That's why this has happened. They've got a post George, George Floyd mentality. The liberals there don't like the president. But if the footprint gets reduced, you just, you have to realize what it's like for them now to have a federal force on the ground larger than their police force by a lot. So will all the people on that signal chat want to stand down? No, but I believe that most of the electeds will, including the governor and the mayor. And I believe they'll have a story to tell which is the president can say we won because we got local cooperation and we've already arrested a lot of people. And the Democrats can say we won because they've really reduced the federal footprint here. And I think that's the recipe to calm this down and to get all but the most professional protesters to stand down.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah, well, and again we talk about where this. Yeah, it started with Joe Biden letting in millions of illegals. That's obviously the starting point originally. But also there's this fraud story and you've got these Somali fraud rings that are bilking taxpayers and sending the money who knows where. Millions and millions of dollars going through msp. Right. So I don't know, I'm sitting here going like, yeah, I would like to win the information war. I think the base is completely committed to this. I think we're building up immunities to the sob stories in this information war. But I don't know that about indies and I don't know about that about sympathetic middle of the line moderate Dems, if there are any. So I do want to win the information war, but I also want to get rid of these fraud rings. I also want to get people in our country that shouldn't be here out. So I'm sitting here, I'm hearing you, but I'm also feeling conflicted. I got to be honest. So where can people follow you?

[Mark Halperin]

Two way TV and arkhalperin or arknextup Halperin, all those places to see and listen to my shows.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

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[Mark Halperin]

More.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

With Mark Halperin two Way tv. And next up on the Megyn Kelly Network. Okay, so Mark, there's going to be and we're going to talk about this every time you probably come on for the rest of the year here, but everything is sort of angling towards midterms. You can feel that. This is why we always encourage have courage during the off cycle years. That's when you need to be aggressive because you're going to get a lot of these weak kneed Republicans. You're going to get these moderates. You're seeing Lisa Murkowski, you're seeing Governor Stitt already sort of blink on this. Minneapolis, maybe we're going to see a messaging pivot from the White House. But there are larger themes happening, right? You've got economic news, you've got President Trump at Davos. You've got foreign policy disputes, you got Greenland, you got Venezuela. What does the president need to do in your opinion? You said take this off the front page and kind of pivot to the next thing. If you were in the room, what would you recommend the president do next?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, a couple things. First of all, I think Governor Stitt would laugh if he said he was a moderate governor.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Oklahoma, I've met Governor Stitt, by the way.

[Mark Halperin]

You think he's a moderate when he.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Goes on CNN and says what are we really doing here? Yeah. By the way, I never will trust Mark. Call me a cynic. I will never trust a governor or senator that's already said I'm not running again or listen, you never know what kind of. And I'm not accusing Governor Stitt of this, but I've seen it too many times. You know, what gig are they angling for next? What rubber chicken dinner do they want to get invited to next? That's all I'll say.

[Mark Halperin]

For all we know, he wants to be Abby Phillips main substitute host. Okay. So again, I say this with respect. I'm not a political analyst or a political reporter. I'm an American analyst or American reporter. And I think to just relentlessly focus on the midterms, again I say with respect is not the right thing for the country even in an election year. The President's job is to do well in the midterms by doing good things for the American people. Same with Congress, same with Governor Waltz. So the focus should not be I think on sort of the tactics and the fundraising, at least not yet. This is hurting the President's poll numbers and it's hurting the brand of the Republican Party and it's hurting MAGA because people don't like what they're seeing and they don't like what they're seeing because. Because it rubs up against their sense of what American government should be, what America should be. People don't want to see government officials telling bald faced lies that are contradicted by what they can see with their own eyes. They don't want to see American citizens shot on the street by government officials. And they don't want to see an enforcement operation that creates chaos when the whole point of this is to create more order and less chaos. Okay, so those are all things that I think the President can be behind and before and help him in the party politically by working on them. If he does that, if he gets the focus on the extraordinary achievement of shutting down the border and the achievement of going into these cities with federal officials and taking out the bad hombres, taking out the people who are dangerous to the community and then deporting others as bandwidth allows, then I think one of the great promises made, promises kept, will be the focus of a lot of voters in the midterms. This is not just mag Democrats and this is not just moderate Democrats. I talked to Republicans for the last 72 hours, including some major supporters of the President who don't want to see this continue the way it's been going. Again, they support the President's immigration agenda. They just don't want to see this. And I think if the President can work that out to emphasize the parts of this that have worked and can continue to work and mitigate the prospect of American citizens being shot by federal officers, I think that's that people will give him the party credit for making a mid course correction.

[Andrew Colvett]

So Mark, there's obviously despite your advice, there is a lot of fixation on the midterms and there's definitely on the right. I've seen this sort of all or nothing attitude that if the midterms are bad, it's all over for the administration or something. But it strikes me, as you noted, they already funded ice, for example, for a long time with a big, beautiful bill. The President has obviously a lot of power to do things, even if he doesn't control Congress. How much do you think it actually matters for President Trump's agenda that he control Congress? And what do you think is likely to happen if he loses it? Are we actually likely to see, for example, the impeachment every week that some people have talked about? And if they do impeach Trump every week, does that actually matter?

[Mark Halperin]

Well, it's not just impeach him, right? It's investigate him. There's 100 things they'd like to have subpoena, power to investigate, and to call members of the administration up to Capitol Hill to testify. All those things are not just a distraction and a bandwidth suck, but they can create a lot of news because the media would love to see a 14 day investigation into the Trump family's crypto holdings or an investigation into policymaking around ice. So it matters for that. It also matters if the President wants to pass anything. The President could do a lot by executive action, but there's some things, like the budget that Congress has to do. And I'm a big believer that if the President does lose the House, he can turn that into a virtue by starting to pass some things in a bipartisan way that the current balance of power would let him do. Now, that won't be popular with everyone in MAGA because it'll mean the President making deal with Hakeem Jeffries, but the alternative is perhaps getting nothing done because they don't have 60 votes in the Senate. I think that, that, that right now the President's chances of keeping the House are underrated. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's underrated. And the Senate is still better than even stay to stay Republican. So he needs to, again, the best thing he can do to, to make sure that he's got the best possible chance to keep the majority is to do things the American people like to do, things that are popular and to let Republicans talk about those things. And if he does that, you know, it won't take care of itself, but it will be the biggest down payment he could make on success in the midterms.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

Yeah, and I think you're right, Mark. You know, I'm willing to concede the fact, something we've talked about on this show is that, you know, the whole masking of ICE agents, it strikes, I guess, the majority of Americans as un American, but they are getting doxed. And we do have the sanctuary city issues where they're not willing to cooperate like they did with Obama, like they did with Clinton. And it's TDS on the local level. I mean, if there is some sort of detente, that's possible where they actually, you know, Louisiana, Portland, Minneapolis, New York are willing to say, hey, smaller footprint, but we'll cooperate at the local level. We'll hand over detention requests of illegals. I think that would be a huge win for the country. And by the way, it would be safer for agents and cities and illegals. If you care about the immigrants, it would be safer.

[Mark Halperin]

I agree. I agree. I totally agree. You need rational policies. And you know, we haven't talked about this. You guys may have talked about it earlier in the show. I was doing other stuff, so I wasn't able to listen. You know, to be so twisted, to have every administration official out on Sunday saying if you show up with a gun, you're a threat, that is a twisting of the Second Amendment. It's a twisting of the MAGA attitude towards the Second Amendment. And so you've got to get policies that you can defend. And they can defend the mission here. They can defend what they want to do with deportations. They can't defend saying a guy who shows up with a gun is a threat automatically. They can't defend claiming the guy's a domestic terrorist without any evidence.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

I agree.

[Mark Halperin]

And that's why you're seeing Tom Homans who says, let's have an investigation go in. Tom Homans isn't going to say, I'm quite sure anyone who shows up with a gun is a threat.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

No, I think we bungled the messaging right at the jump. I think that's fair and we can do better. And we will. Mark Halperin, thank you so much.

[Mark Halperin]

Thank you, guys. Good to see you.

[Charlie Kirk (Host)]

For more on many of these stories and news you can Trust, go to charliekirk.com.