Podcast Summary: The Charlie Kirk Show – Inside the 2025 AmericaFest Straw Poll
Date: December 23, 2025
Host: Charlie Kirk
Guests: Rich Barris (lead pollster, Big Data Poll), Andrew Colvett, Blake
Overview
This episode dives deep into the results and significance of the 2025 AmericaFest Straw Poll, conducted by Turning Point Action at their annual AmFest event. Charlie Kirk and guests analyze what these poll results reveal about the current and future direction of conservative grassroots activism, 2028 presidential nominee preferences, priorities among young right-leaning voters, perceptions on Israel, key policy issues, and the evolving identity of the GOP coalition. The tone is unapologetically grassroots conservative, with a focus on the importance of action, winning elections, and putting "America First".
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. AmFest Atmosphere & Poll Demographics
- Largest and Youngest Ever:
“Visually, this looked like the biggest AM Fest ever... the biggest thing that'll stand out is, you know, the media narrative and the infighting that they projected was going on over there... people in attendance... agree on so much more.”
— Rich Barris [02:02] - This was the youngest sample to date and had the highest response volume, making the findings both statistically significant and highly reflective of the emerging conservative grassroots.
2. 2028 GOP Presidential Nominee Preference
- J.D. Vance Dominates:
The overwhelming favorite for 2028 GOP nominee was Vice President J.D. Vance, receiving 84.2% support.- The next closest: Marco Rubio (4.8%), Ron DeSantis (2.9%), Don Jr. (1.8%), Ted Cruz (3%), and Glenn Youngkin (0.4%).
- Notable write-ins: Donald Trump “for a third term” and a small presence for libertarian-leaning figures like Thomas Massie.
“There’s never been such widespread agreement... This is about as close to uniformity as you get.”
— Rich Barris [06:29–08:10]
Notable Quote
“What are they really telling you when they're picking who they want for the future nominee? ...This is the direction we want to go in the future. This is what we want from the future of the movement, for the future of the party.”
– Rich Barris [06:29]
3. Attendees' Perception of US-Israel Relationship
- Responses to “What best describes your view of Israel?”
- “Number one ally” - 33%
- “One ally of many” - 53% (outright majority)
- “Not an ally” - 13%
- The poll’s youngest-ever group sees Israel as important but no longer singularly central to US foreign policy.
- "The consensus of the movement is really... Israel is an ally, but they're one of many. And so let's just put our own country first."
— Andrew Colvett [15:50]
Notable Quote
“This is a bit of a wakeup call to the older guard of the GOP... there's an expectation that Israel will get a privileged place in the conversation. But that's not where the future really sees our foreign policy.”
– Rich Barris [14:02]
4. Most Important Issues for AmericaFest Conservatives
Top Concern:
- Winning the midterms (overwhelmingly) [18:06]
- Other issues (by %): Voter ID (9.3%), Affordability Crisis (8.1%), Mass Deportations (5.3%), Deep State Lawfare Accountability (4.2%)
Least Important:
- Ending the war in Ukraine (<1%)
“Ending the war in Ukraine dead last... I think because we're not sending them money like we used to be.”
- Andrew Colvett [19:17]
Motivation:
- A recurring grassroots theme: urgency to win elections because of the perceived stakes.
- "At the end of the day the... turning point family wants to win. They know what... kind of turbulence we're in for if Democrats win."
— Rich Barris [19:41]
5. Top-Perceived Threats to America
Ranked by Most Dangerous
- Radical Islam
- Socialism/Marxism
- Mass Migration
- Corrupt Courts
- Low fertility and concerns about technology/AI ranked very low, despite being discussed often in conservative circles.
- The strong emphasis on radical Islam was attributed to Charlie Kirk’s focus on the issue and recent migration patterns.
Notable Quote
“Number one [Radical Islam] is just a big testament, frankly, to Charlie, who was really fixated on that topic… We went to fight them over there so that we could then import them over here and then have to fight them here again.”
– Blake [23:04]
6. Trump 2.0 Administration Approval
- Most Popular Cabinet Members:
- Pete Hegseth (Secretary)—“blew it away” with 83% strong approval [26:39]
- Marco Rubio and Kristi Noem also performed well, the latter credited for her role in large-scale deportations.
- Most Appreciated Achievements:
- Deportations and border security stood out.
“People love deportations, Rich. Yeah, they love the deportations.”
– Andrew Colvett [28:30]
7. Immigration Moratorium — Base’s Top Mobilizer
- 90% support among attendees for an immigration moratorium.
- “If you want to drive base turnout, lean into this issue. Find a way to thread the needle... This will drive turnout.”
— Andrew Colvett [32:01]
- “If you want to drive base turnout, lean into this issue. Find a way to thread the needle... This will drive turnout.”
- Barris emphasized even national polling hovers around 55% support for a moratorium, suggesting its popularity extends beyond just movement conservatives.
Notable Quote
“I would say, suck it up, buttercup… This is a gold mine… Have this as a backbone issue which you can deliver an economic message out of.”
— Rich Barris [33:12]
8. Generational Shift & Movement Identity
- The episode stressed the difference between online narratives and real-life grassroots consensus.
- The poll reveals a significant generational shift on Israel, immigration, and what the future coalition should look like.
- Themes: prioritizing domestic issues, skepticism of perpetual foreign entanglements, desire for hardline positions on security and immigration, and celebrating family formation — all seen as potent base energizers.
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- Rich Barris:
“There’s never been such widespread agreement... This is about as close to uniformity as you get.” [08:10]
- Andrew Colvett:
“The consensus of the movement is really... Israel is an ally, but they're one of many. And so let's just put our own country first.” [15:50]
- Blake:
“Number one [Radical Islam] is just a big testament, frankly, to Charlie, who was really fixated on that topic… We went to fight them over there so that we could then import them over here and then have to fight them here again.” [23:04]
- Rich Barris:
“I would say, suck it up, buttercup… This is a gold mine… Have this as a backbone issue which you can deliver an economic message out of.” [33:12]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [02:02] – Largest, youngest AMFest attendance and energy
- [06:29–08:10] – J.D. Vance’s overwhelming lead for 2028 GOP nomination
- [13:36–15:50] – Israel question results and analysis
- [18:06–19:41] – Top movement issues and priorities
- [21:44–25:06] – Top threats: radical Islam, Marxism, mass migration, and judiciary problems
- [26:39] – Cabinet approval: Hegseth, Rubio, and Noem
- [32:01–33:12] – Immigration moratorium and base enthusiasm
Conclusion
This enlightening episode goes beyond mere polling numbers, offering a window into the motivations and priorities of the new generation of conservative activists. The resounding consensus on J.D. Vance, shifting views on Israel, and the laser-like focus on winning elections and border security show how the coalition is recalibrating for the elections ahead. The results instruct party leaders to heed the grassroots on immigration and to recognize the culture and policy shifts that are mobilizing the movement’s future.