Podcast Summary: The Charlie Kirk Show Episode Title: Is "The Trump Effect" Already Securing the Border?

Host: Charlie Kirk
Guest: Todd Benzman, Mark Halperin
Date: [Assumed recent based on transcript]

Introduction

In this episode of The Charlie Kirk Show, host Charlie Kirk delves into pressing issues surrounding U.S. border security and the current dynamics within the Democratic Party. The episode features insightful discussions with immigration expert Todd Benzman and renowned political reporter Mark Halperin. Together, they explore the efficacy of Trump's immigration policies, the potential for self-deportation among illegal immigrants, and the challenges facing the Democratic Party in the wake of recent elections.

Segment 1: The "Trump Effect" on Border Security

Timestamp: [01:26 - 07:00]

Guest: Todd Benzman

Charlie Kirk opens the conversation with Todd Benzman, an expert on immigration and author of Overrun. They discuss Benzman's recent piece for The Daily Wire, which argues that "The Trump Effect 2.0" is leading to a significant decline in illegal border crossings.

Key Points:

• First Trump Effect (2016): Benzman explains that Trump's campaign rhetoric in 2015-2016, emphasizing a crackdown on illegal immigration and the construction of a border wall, led to an 80% reduction in illegal crossings almost overnight. This effect persisted even after Trump took office.

  "Trump effect had the, the effect of it was that just his campaign rhetoric during 2015, 2016 caused illegal immigrants to stay home and shelter in place because he was saying crack down, crack down, big beautiful border wall, et cetera. So they stayed home. The numbers dropped by 80% almost overnight." [00:58]

• Second Trump Effect: Benzman posits that a second wave of Trump-like rhetoric, led by figures like Tom Holman, is currently suppressing illegal crossings. Holman's strong statements about deporting everyone are resonating with immigrants contemplating their future in the U.S.

  "We are probably in the middle of a second Trump effect right now... that has a very powerful effect on the receivers on the receiving end of this." [02:30]

• Impact of Social Media: The ubiquity of smartphones and social media allows immigrants to witness the consequences of illegal crossing in real-time, reinforcing the deterrent effect of the rhetoric.

  "They need to see actions behind the rhetoric. They need to see people actually blocked and actually deported... on their cell phones." [04:00]

• Policy Implementation Challenges: Benzman highlights the importance of follow-through on rhetoric with actionable policies. Previous attempts were hampered by legal challenges, but current policies like "Remain in Mexico" and safe third country agreements are legally vetted and more likely to withstand litigation.

  "The thing to watch for In Trump effect 2.0 is that very thing... So, the big question is whether Trump will be able to implement around that." [04:45]

Segment 2: Self-Deportation and Policy Measures

Timestamp: [05:55 - 10:40]

Discussion: Self-deportation as a realistic outcome and specific executive orders to bolster border security.

Key Points:

• Self-Deportation: Benzman discusses the possibility of self-deportation, where illegal immigrants choose to leave voluntarily to avoid harsher penalties, such as a 10-year ban from re-entry.

  "People who are promised, look, we'll let you get in line through the legal process if you go voluntarily, but if we have to come and get you, you'll be banned for 10 years or longer." [05:55]

• Immediate Policy Actions: Benzman outlines three executive orders he believes should be prioritized:

  1. Eliminate CBP1 Humanitarian Parole: Suspend the program immediately to prevent the influx of migrants.
  2. Remain in Mexico Policy: Legally vetted to ensure migrants remain in Mexico while their claims are processed.
  3. Safe Third Country Agreements: Deny asylum applications from individuals who have passed through other safe countries before reaching the U.S.

  "Number one, eliminate CBP1 humanitarian parole immediately... Number two, to complement that remain in Mexico right off the bat... Number three, safe third country." [09:17]

• Enforcement and Messaging: Strong enforcement and clear messaging are crucial. Visible deportations and stringent policies deter potential migrants.

  "Deportations mean everything. So if they start getting people deported right away, they will be showing up on airport tarmacs in Honduras and whatnot, and making news in Spanish language media." [04:30]

Segment 3: Cabinet Confirmations and the Republican Party

Timestamp: [17:47 - 26:55]

Guest: Mark Halperin

The conversation shifts to Cabinet confirmations, with Mark Halperin providing his analysis on the likelihood of controversial nominees like Matt Gaetz and Bobby Kennedy being confirmed.

Key Points:

• Nominee Support: Halperin argues that President Trump has significant political capital and support within his party, increasing the chances of his nominees being confirmed despite media skepticism.

  "My base case is that Gates gets through... they are not." [20:37]

• Senate Dynamics: With only a handful of Republican senators potentially opposing the nominees, the likelihood of confirmation remains high. Senators like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski may continue to oppose, but overall support within the party is strong.

  "Most of them would say a governor... if they want, they want to have their folks eligible for jobs." [21:16]

• Trump's Approach to Confirmations: Unlike past presidents, Trump is portrayed as willing to aggressively support his nominees, even in the face of significant opposition, ensuring their successful confirmation.

  "Donald Trump expects... he might personally feel bad for them, but he'll, he'll switch on a dime and say, all right, who we nominating next?" [26:55]

Segment 4: The State of the Democratic Party

Timestamp: [27:46 - 34:38]

Discussion: The Democratic Party's current disarray and challenges post-election.

Key Points:

• Disengagement and Fatigue: Halperin notes a significant level of disengagement within the Democratic base, characterized by fatigue and resignation after continuous resistance without tangible results.

  "There is an interesting level of disengagement... they are trying to figure out how they feel about accepting the result." [27:46]

• Alienation from the Party: Democratic voters feel alienated due to the party's focus on progressive policies and internal conflicts, leading to a loss of authenticity and effectiveness.

  "Their description of his alienation from the party is a big part of why I think the Democrats are confused." [31:01]

• Leadership and Strategy Issues: The party struggles to unify around a clear leader and cohesive strategy, hindering its ability to effectively respond to Republican initiatives.

  "They can't agree on who to lead them and they can't agree on what the solution is to get out of where they are now." [31:01]

• Potential for Reorganization: There is hope among Democratic elites for a moderate figure to emerge who can bridge the gap between factions and restore the party's appeal to a broader electorate.

  "They are hopeful that Donald Trump will overreach and that that will give them the opportunity to get an audience with the American people again." [34:20]

Conclusion

Charlie Kirk wraps up the episode by reinforcing the effectiveness of the Trump administration's immigration policies and highlighting the structural challenges facing the Democratic Party. The discussions underscore a pivotal moment in American politics, where immigration policy and internal party dynamics are shaping the future electoral landscape.

Notable Quotes:

• Todd Benzman on Trump Effect:

  "The Trump effect... caused illegal immigrants to stay home and shelter in place because he was saying crack down, crack down, big beautiful border wall..." [00:58]

• Mark Halperin on Democratic Disarray:

  "They are trying to figure out how they feel about accepting the result." [27:46]

• Charlie Kirk on Policy Impact:

  "If there's a pretty good chance that they're going to get pushed back and blocked, they're not going to do it." [07:00]

Key Takeaways

1. "Trump Effect" is Potentially Resurfacing: Strong rhetoric and stricter enforcement policies are deterring illegal border crossings, mirroring the initial impact observed during Trump's 2016 campaign.

2. Policy Implementation is Crucial: Successful reduction in illegal immigration hinges on the administration’s ability to follow through on policy promises without succumbing to legal challenges.

3. Cabinet Confirmations Likely to Prevail: Despite media skepticism, Trump’s nominees have a solid chance of confirmation due to strong party support and strategic lobbying within the Senate.

4. Democratic Party Faces Internal Challenges: The party is grappling with disengagement, internal conflicts, and a lack of cohesive leadership, which may impede its effectiveness in future elections.

5. Future Political Landscape Uncertain: The interplay between robust immigration enforcement and Democratic disarray sets the stage for significant shifts in upcoming electoral contests.

For More Information:

• Charlie Kirk Show: charliekirk.com
• Turning Point USA: tpusa.com
• Mark Halperin's Two Way TV: twowaytv.com

Note: The timestamps provided correspond to the transcript excerpts for accurate reference.