Transcript
Charlie Kirk (0:00)
Thank you for listening to this Podcast 1 production now available on Apple Podcasts, Podcast 1, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Hey everybody. Today on the Charlie Kirk show, we go into the news. You might have been missing some political news. That's right. We actually give you the Update on Trump vs Biden. And I could tell you from some first personal experience on the ground of the battleground states and actually being there in 2016, there's some stuff that you're not going to want to miss. I our sister organization, Turning Point Action, our 501 organization, is hosting the President of the United States in Phoenix, Arizona on June 23rd. You guys can sign up@Trumpstudents.org convention. That's right, Trumpstudents.org convention. Or if you guys want to go, just email me freedom charliekirk.com if you're in the American Southwest or if you want to go from anywhere from across the country and hear the President address the next generation, you can do that@freedom charliekirk.com, email us. Tickets are running out right now, so email us freedom charliekirk.com or you can go to trumpstudents.org convention. It's gonna be a lot of fun. The President is coming to Phoenix. We are hosting him at Turning Point Action. Email me your questions freedom charliekirk.com also listen to our sister episode, Devin Nunez. Okay, everybody buckle up. Here we go. Charlie, what you've done is incredible here. Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
Jim Acosta (1:14)
I want you to know we are
Charlie Kirk (1:15)
lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
Jim Acosta (1:18)
Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
Senator Tim Scott (1:21)
I want to thank Charlie. He's an incredible guy. His spirit, his love of this country. He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point usa.
Charlie Kirk (1:31)
We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives. And we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country. That's why we are here. So in case you forgot, with all the burning, the looting, the rioting, the protesting, the potential for more lockdowns and shutdowns, there's also still an election going on. That's right. It's a presidential election year. Let's talk about the election. I mean, we've been talking about so much happening right now in the cities of our country and the Chinese coronavirus and how corporations are capitulating to far left wing social justice causes. Let's actually talk about the election. So Joe Biden is making a huge play for Florida. It's putting Trump on defense in his own backyard, which is technically now his home state. And now this is a must win state for the White House. Now, part of the strategy is around Val Demings, who's a Florida representative, who's a potential running mate for Joe Biden. So Joe Biden can purportedly make a big play from his basement. I'm not really sure how that's working. I think every day Joe Biden comes out of his basement and he asks, am I president yet? Am I president yet? It's kind of like Groundhog Day, but it's much more depressing. So, look, the big play in Florida is based solely on fear mongering about a second wave of the Chinese coronavirus and the need for a real leader. Now, President Trump, of course, won Florida in 2016 by over 100,000 votes. I remember tracking county by county. I took personal time off from Turning Point usa. I volunteered with the campaign. I traveled the country with Donald Trump Jr. I was monitoring a lot of the counties as they were coming in in the state of Florida. And I remember watching Miami Dade County, Palm Beach County, Pinellas county, very carefully. Long Boats, Key area, which I know quite well. Sarasota, Naples, and also the Panhandle. And as soon as I saw that the number differentials in those counties were not the typical Democrat Republican split and the Panhandle had not yet reported, I said, donald Trump's gonna win the White House. Cause I was also simultaneously monitoring a lot of the counties in Michigan and Wisconsin. We have to realize that we have an Electoral College, but even beyond that, we have an electoral county model, because a lot of these counties are actually the ones that are the swing counties. And even within the counties, there's townships or precincts that are going to make or break the entire trajectory of Western society and civilization. So it's really interesting to think that certain neighborhoods, that certain city blocks are actually going to determine the future of America. Now, President Trump won Florida by 100,000 votes, but Biden thinks he can reclaim Florida like Obama did in 08 in 2012. So here's some bad news about Florida and here's some good news about Florida. Florida. Let's start with the bad news. The recent poll, which, again, I don't take these polls that seriously. I don't think they're all completely incorrect, but I think that they could be mostly incorrect. And they also don't factor in turnout. They're also just a snapshot in time. We have to understand that President Trump has been under incredible duress. From the media. And I don't wanna say that he's under duress. Let's say he's under attack. I think that's probably a more fair way to say it. But look, Joe Biden, he thinks that he can win back Florida. But the bad news for Joe Biden is, is that Florida, in the whole alleged Democrat wave that happened in 2018, Florida remains strong. Ron DeSantis still won Florida. Senator Rick Scott still won the Senate seat. And he did a very difficult thing, which is to beat an incumbent Democrat Senator, Senator Nelson. So Florida has been trending ever so slightly in the center right direction, but Joe Biden thinks he can win. So one of these polls has Joe Biden at 50%, Trump at 43% in the state of Florida. In Arizona has Biden up 1, Biden 45%, Trump 44%. That's actually a pretty promising poll. The fact that Biden is only winning by one in Arizona, according to the CNBC Change Research poll, is a huge, actually really, really positive for Trump. And because I'll tell you right now, that we're supposed to believe that Arizona is upside down and backwards, that differential I'll take completely. That does not factor in Trump enthusiasm. That does not take the Trump surge, that does not take into effect the Trump surge. That is assuredly gonna happen in the last two weeks where Trump is able to get a clear and convincing message and define his opponent. That doesn't count all the ad money that's gonna be spent or the ground game, the rallies, all that. So the fact that Trump's within one point in Arizona is. I'll take that any day now. He should be up. I mean, Arizona shouldn't be contested. But having spent a lot of time in Arizona, Turning Point USA, our 501 educational charity, is headquartered in Arizona. Our podcast, we do a lot of our podcast out of Arizona. We're hosting the President of the United States actually, coming up on Tuesday from our 501c4 in Arizona. You guys can come check that out@Trumpstudents.org if you're anywhere in the Southwest, you want to come hear the president speak, we have him coming in Phoenix, Arizona on June 23rd in Arizona. So I know the state of Arizona pretty well. And the fact that this polling, which is probably tilted a little bit over, sampling Democrats within one point, I'll take it. Now, this Florida poll, not great. Not gonna lie down. 7 Again, I don't necessarily believe it, but that does go to show, I think, that Trump has a Florida focus that needs to happen that Trump needs to focus on Florida more than not. And I will say that the trend lines have been moving in the general direction that are not favorable to Trump. They've been going in the wrong direction in Florida. Now, interestingly enough, Michigan, according to the CNBC Research poll, is that Trump's within 2 points of Biden. I think that's great. The fact that Trump's in two points, I mean, some of the tracking polls for Trump had Trump down in the state of Michigan going right into the last days with Hillary Clinton. And I think so. Look, some polls have him down 16 points in Michigan. I don't believe that for a second in North Carolina has Biden up 2. But again, this doesn't factor in so many different things. Voter registration, voter turnout, voter modeling, late breakers, the base turning out. And we have to understand that if we were probably to accept. You don't want to say that this is completely going to be the case, but I think this is generally true. This will probably be the lowest point of Trump's approval rating presidency. I mean, I can't think of a scenario and maybe one will happen in the next couple months where Trump has been under attack with so many things he cannot control happening around him. I mean, you talk about having the riots, the issue around police, law enforcement, the lockdowns, the less than favorable economic climate, him having to play defense on issues that are not his particular preferred issues. So if you start of this as a baseline, if you say, hey, Trump is down two points in Michigan as a baseline, I'll take it. Trump is down one point in Arizona as a baseline. Understand that Republicans are late breaking voters. Democrat base is pretty much built in. It is almost guaranteed. Trump's entire path to victory is a path of persuasion on top of a path of building and motivating, a base that needs to come out and turn out in record numbers. And I also, a lot of the pollsters, I think get wrong the way that they sample Trump supporters. A lot of Trump supporters are not likely to participate in polls. We saw this in 2016. Now, also in 2016, I was one of the people that actually accurately predicted. You can go back into my tweet where I published it. I got under such repudiation and condemnation from the intelligentsia when I said Donald Trump was going to win. Now, I didn't get the entire map correctly, but I said that Donald Trump was going to win Michigan. I had that. I went to 270toWin.com. I filled it incorrectly. Now, I did this because I was actually spending a lot of time in Michigan. I spoke to human beings in Michigan. I saw something happening in Michigan that was so special, unlike anything I had experienced in my short career in politics leading up to that. But most importantly, I looked at the cross tabs and I looked at how they were tabulating the polling and the polling that they were doing in Michigan, similar to how a lot of these experts have been wrong about so much in the last couple months and so much in the last couple years. They said that they had Donald Trump losing the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. And I. Anyone who's been in the Midwest, like, I have and knows what the Upper Peninsula of Michigan actually is. So just so you know, Michigan is like a mint. Not like Mitt Romney, his family is from Michigan. But if you put up your hand, that's basically the map of Michigan. Okay? It's an old joke. And you ask people, where do you live in Michigan? But there's actually an entire part of Michigan that people don't always talk about, which is called the Upper Peninsula, which is actually contiguous with the northern part of Wisconsin. This is basically like Alabama, near Canada. Okay? It is the most conservative part of the entire Midwest. I mean, I think it's a requirement to live in the Upper Peninsula for you to have a firearm. I mean, there's some amazing parts. There's Marquette, Sault Ste. Marie. I have some friends that have been from there. These are people that generally are very, very pro Donald Trump's message. They're very pro Second Amendment, pro individual initiative, pro America. The fact that the cross tabs in 2016 said that Donald Trump was gonna lose the Upper Peninsula, and it was with. And the statewide polling had Trump within the margin of error. I said, Donald Trump's gonna win the state of Michigan. There's no way. And actually, it came out on election Day. He won the Upper Peninsula by massive margin. And so if you go into the cross tab, sometimes they're just not sampling parts of the state correctly. The people that they're able to get on the phone from those states are not indicative of how counties make up a broader complexion of an entire state. And so pollsters are supposed to factor that in. But sometimes they're under a lot of pressure, sometimes they're under deadlines to get polling published, and they're not always able to get accurate sampling sizes of certain parts of the state. And that's understandable. But I also think that there are suppression polls. So right now, the RCP average has Joe Biden up 8.5 points over Donald Trump, 50 to 41%. So, look, I'm not going to say that's a good thing. I mean, I don't necessarily believe it's that poll right now. I don't believe it's that margin right now. I think I've talked to some people that are in the polling industry, and I've seen some people on cable television that have said that the internal polls on both campaigns show it much tighter than that. But let's say that Donald Trump is down right now. It's understandable. The news cycle has been so disfavorable for what Trump wants to achieve and what he's trying to convey to the American people. We understand that. We have some ground to make up, but it's not as bad as I think people are making it seem. But a poll in Minnesota had Trump down only 5. And this was all before the riots and the destruction. The state is in play. Look, yesterday we went over a bunch of points that explained why there is a reason for hope. And we covered the idea of. Of suppression polls. And I encourage you to go back and check out that podcast. It was very in depth of how these polls are actually done. But what if the polls are right? What does Trump have to do to actually correct course. But let's pretend that the polls are half right. Let's say that instead of being down 13 points in Michigan, or instead of being down 16 points in Michigan, or instead of Being down 2 points in North Carolina, let's just cut it all in half, okay? Let's pretend that he has some margin to make up. Well, then what? Well, first of all, rallies are imperative. I think that President Trump is the best offensive political player in modern American history. He's the best person that goes on offense. He is not Dennis Rodman, okay? He's not very good at playing defense. He's not good at locking down the Democrats, that he's good at putting them on defense. He's good at making them play on the terms of engagement of his agenda, his doctrine, like I articulated in my book MAGA doctrine. Secondly, the Democrats and the media, they're dictating the entire rules of engagement. They're saying, these are the issues that you have to talk about. These are the executive orders you have to sign, and here are the things that you must communicate. So, look, today, Jim Acosta tried to peddle this lie to Kayleigh McEnany, who we've had on the Charlie Kirk Show. I encourage you to go back and listen to that episode. And she absolutely ran circles around him on the hypocrisy play tape.
