The Charlie Kirk Show

Episode: The Trump Team's Secret Midterm Strategy Session

Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Charlie Kirk
Notable Guests/Co-Hosts: Blake, Andrew, Steve Hilton

Episode Overview

This episode gives listeners an insider's look at the Trump campaign's internal midterm election strategy session, as reported by political journalist Mark Halperin. Charlie and his co-hosts dissect this "secret strategy" meeting on Capitol Hill, analyze new polling data, break down key messaging priorities for 2026, and touch on breaking political developments, including California’s gubernatorial race and growing US-Iran tensions. The tone is irreverent, energetic, and unapologetically populist-conservative.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Inside the Trump Midterm Strategy Briefing

[01:16] – [09:11]

Key Details from Halperin's Report:

• Event: A private dinner and strategy session at Capitol Hill Club with senior Trump campaign officials, cabinet members, and top aides (~75-100 attendees)
• Host: Susie Wiles (not President Trump); data presentation by Trump team pollster Tony Fabrizio
• Shared by: Mark Halperin, credited for his reporting and colorful details like "the group was served chicken and steak"
• Tone: Attendees described as veteran (not panicked, but focused)

Main Messaging Takeaways (Courtesy Tony Fabrizio’s Slides):

• Top Voter Issues: Economic populism most strongly resonates
  • Banning stock trading for Congress
  • Transparency on health insurance pricing and claims
  • Lowering prescription drug costs (targeting “Big Pharma”)
  • Trump tax cuts
  • Housing affordability

Populist Underpinning

• Blake: "There is such a hunger in tackling the corruption and draining the swamp… the grassroots, they wanna see accountability, they wanna see the elites...be held accountable." ([04:57])
• Charlie and Blake emphasize these are not abstract policy points—each is meant to "stick in the minds of normie people" who aren't political obsessives.

Border Security: Surprisingly Weak Messaging Impact

• “Taking credit for closing the border does not resonate much.” ([05:46]) — a point of disappointment, despite being seen as a major policy accomplishment.

Media & Outreach Strategy

• Prioritizing podcasts and social media over traditional national TV/interviews
  • "No one's watching Meet the Press anymore… Facebook is still king for voters." ([07:15])
  • Audience focus: Older, reliable voters, not "the Twitterati"

Midterm Electoral Outlook

• Target: 36 House races, 7 key Senate races ([08:10])
• "Historically... president’s party loses seats... They believe they'll only lose the Senate if we lose 50 House seats. So that's kind of an optimistic take." ([08:16])
• Trump himself expected to follow instinct; rest of the team to hew to calibrated, poll-driven messaging

2. The Potomac Sewage Spill – Symbol of Institutional Decline

[11:43] – [18:41]

Catastrophe Overview

• "240 million gallons of raw sewage" spilled into the Potomac River over a month, now closed to the public due to "E. Coli levels more than 10,000 times above EPA quality standards" ([12:31])
• Widespread media coverage, finger-pointing between Maryland's Governor Wes Moore and federal officials

Mockery & Cultural Critique

• “Almost like we're the third world.” ([11:44])
• Blake & Charlie draw analogies to America’s former ability to rapidly build infrastructure (Hoover Dam, Empire State Building) compared to today’s long delays and red tape

DEI and Management Riff

• DC Water manager touts newly “diverse” leadership, replacing “predominantly white male at the top” ([14:48])
• Co-hosts explicitly critique this as misplaced priorities:
  • Blake: "Well, now they have a river filled with poop." ([15:28])
  • Charlie: "White men created Western civilization... If you are going to go into the C suite... and you remove us arbitrarily... don’t be surprised when your city regresses to the historical mean.” ([16:34])

Global Examples

• References to South African “DEI” decline (Johannesburg photos), London’s inability to repair historic buildings, as further examples of “regression”

3. California’s Gubernatorial Race: Republican Opportunity?

[20:31] – [31:11]

Polling Shockwaves & GOP Hope

• Co-hosts discuss California’s open “jungle” primary with 6+ Democratic and 2 Republican candidates
• Recent polling (Tavern Research & Emerson): Steve Hilton at 17%, 2 Republicans above leading Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter ([21:52]–[22:43])

Interview: Steve Hilton (GOP Candidate)

• Realistic about chances: “In practice it’s not going to happen because the Democrat machine is not just going to surrender California… So the real risk is that we get two Democrats in the top two.” ([23:29])
• Unions/Big Tech cash expected to push Dems up; two Republicans advancing “would be a coup”
• Voter ID ballot measure: “It’s qualified for the ballot. This is huge… popular across the board— even among California Democrats.” ([25:30])
• Policy priorities: End “Democrat climate insanity”, bring back “$3 gas”, cut electric bills, make first $100k tax free, address housing unaffordability ([28:33])
• Humor at Democrats’ expense:
  • On Katie Porter possibly "eating" Swalwell: “You do not have to chime in on any of this if you don't want to, Steve Hilton.” ([27:00])
  • Hilton: “I can’t decide between them… endless mashed potato jokes or… Fang Fang.” ([27:04])

Coalition Building

• Steve Hilton explains Republican unity effort: “My door is open… building a team… I’d love Chad to be part of that. I don’t see any interest on his side.” ([30:30])
• Charlie: “Steve Hilton for governor. Charlie Kirk endorsement… We’re behind you 100%, my friend. Keep going.” ([31:11])

4. Looming War with Iran?

[32:57] – [39:50]

Escalating Tensions

• U.S. and Israel reportedly preparing for major military action against Iran, beyond last year’s limited strikes; rapid buildup of U.S. air/naval assets in the region ([33:19])
• “The boss is getting fed up… I think there is a 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks, one Trump advisor said.” ([34:19])

Cautious Analysis

• Co-hosts note public skepticism and timing:
  • "If Trump were to go on air and say we're launching a regime change war against Iran, I think a lot of people would be wondering why it's happening now." ([33:44])
  • “It would be difficult to mix that with this sort of war unless President Trump was highly confident it could be a rapid, decisive operation with no permanent US Footage.” ([37:07])

Precedents: Venezuela

• Reference to Trump administration’s “snake operation” to oust Maduro: “Total success, no U.S. losses. And they were completely humiliating for the regime…” ([36:24])
• Note: caution about repeating successful quick strikes, “If you do that over and over, eventually you do get unlucky and... we're in another five, ten year mess.” ([39:10])

Iran’s Rhetoric

• The Ayatollah’s social media threats:
  • “The strongest military force in the world may at times be struck so hard that it cannot get up again...” ([39:50])
• Blake: “Iran has tried to kill President Trump. That's going on in the back of his head, too. Don't forget that.” ([40:12])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Potomac Spill’s symbolism:

  • Blake: “Almost like we’re the third world…” ([11:44])
  • Charlie: “If you are going to go into the C suite of a utility that runs your sewage for millions of people and you remove us arbitrarily… don’t be surprised when your city regresses to the historical mean. Most places on planet Earth have rivers filled with poop.” ([16:34])

• On Trump’s Messaging:

  • “Banning stock trading for Congress is an interesting one… it captures the idea of, are the elites against us? Are they just exploiting us and playing by different rules?” – Blake ([04:46])

• On California’s political oddities:

  • Hilton: “There is a crazy scenario, as you were just mentioning, where you could get two Republicans in the top two. That's theoretically possible. But in practice it's not going to happen…” ([23:29])
  • Co-host, joking about Katie Porter: “If the race is close, she may simply eat Eric Swalwell.” ([27:00])
  • Hilton: “I can’t decide between them. What is my preference? Katie Porter with the endless opportunity for mashed potato jokes or Eric Swalwell with the… possibilities for Fang Fang. I can’t decide.” ([27:04])

• On Iran:

  • Charlie: “Americans say, come negotiate with us about your nuclear energy. And the result… there is no need to negotiate. But if a negotiation were to take place, predetermining its outcome is misguided and stupid approach. That's Ayatollah Khomeini.” ([39:39])
  • Iran’s tweet: “The strongest military force in the world may at times be struck so hard that it cannot get up again…” ([39:50])

Additional Highlights

• Frequent emphasis on the “populist” spirit driving the Trump campaign and the appetite among voters for anti-elite, anti-corruption, and concrete economic messages.
• Persistent humor and sarcastic tones when discussing Democratic adversaries, public infrastructure failures, and global “regression due to DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) policies.”
• Conclusion with breaking updates on potential American military action in Iran—framed as both a policy dilemma and a media phenomenon.

Episode Timeline (Key Timestamps)

• [01:16]: Trump midterm strategy session analysis
• [02:36]: Fabrizio’s polling: Economic populism leads
• [05:36]: Border closure: weak issue, per new data
• [07:15]: Campaign’s media strategy: focus on Facebook/social over TV
• [11:43]: Potomac sewage spill revealed; "third world" analogies
• [14:48]: DC Water’s DEI management discussion
• [20:31]: California governor’s race polling and "jungle primary" explained
• [23:29]: Steve Hilton interview on GOP strategy and voter ID
• [28:33]: What’s resonating with California voters: gas prices, taxes, housing
• [32:57]: Urgent escalation: U.S.-Iran (reporting via Axios)
• [36:24]: Review of Venezuela regime change as precedent/span>
• [39:50]: Iran’s Ayatollah threatens U.S.; hosts interpret strategic stakes

Summary prepared for listeners seeking a detailed, inside look at the Trump 2026 midterm playbook, the populist-conservative media ecosystem, and the interplay between national politics and local crises.