Podcast Summary: "What Went Right in Arizona, and Left Everywhere Else"

The Charlie Kirk Show | November 5, 2025

Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

This episode focuses on analyzing the results from the most recent round of U.S. elections, emphasizing why conservatives suffered setbacks in most places while celebrating a rare victory in Mesa, Arizona. Host Charlie Kirk, joined by Turning Point Action COO Tyler Boyer, Blake Neff, and others, dissects political trends, messaging failures, demographic challenges, and the crucial role of grassroots activism. They underline the necessity for renewed conservative energy, sound candidate selection, and targeted local strategies to counteract Democratic organization and enthusiasm.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Election Night Recap: Conservative Losses and One Big Win

• General Mood: Acknowledgment of widespread conservative defeats, especially in key races—"It was bad...we did worse than we did in 2021." (Charlie Kirk, 01:27)
• Mesa, Arizona Victory: Turning Point Action’s grassroots spearheaded the recall of Julie Spilsbury, the “Republicans for Kamala” face in Mesa.
  • "This is like target number one for the Democrats to topple." (Tyler Boyer, 05:09)
  • Importance stressed as Mesa sits in pivotal Maricopa County—“As Phoenix goes...the presidency goes.” (Tyler Boyer, 08:32)

2. The Mesa Recall: Strategy and Implications

• Opponent Profile: Julie Spilsbury portrayed as a “fake Republican” backed by Democratic interests, aiming to subvert local conservative strongholds.
• Tactics Used: Intense grassroots organizing—door knocking, petitions, volunteer work, and local coalition-building.
• National Attention: Major outlets (NYT, Politico, Axios) framed this local recall as a major referendum on Trump and broader conservative strength.
  • “They were all out here on a city council race following everything...because what they were hoping was that we were gonna fail.” (Blake Neff, 07:25)
• Demoralizing Democrats' Strategy: The message sent to Democrats—Arizona is no longer an easy target, which may impact future DNC investment.

3. Turning Point’s Grassroots vs. Establishment Narrative

• Notable Quote: "To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics." (Tyler Boyer, 04:09)
• Julie Spilsbury’s Complaint: She accused Turning Point of overwhelming her with national money and volunteers (11:36). Boyer pushes back, affirming all canvassers were local.

4. Lessons from New Hampshire and Beyond

• Special election in Berlin, NH, won by GOP with a margin of 13 votes, was aided by Turning Point’s vote-chasing ground game—“That probably did directly make the difference.” (Blake Neff, 13:19)
• New Hampshire and Arizona highlighted as states where conservative infrastructure made an impact, pushing back against the idea that conservatives can't win even in blue-leaning environments.

5. Challenges Facing Conservatives Elsewhere

• Enthusiasm Gap: A recognition that Democratic voters were more energized.
  • “Enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things...Republicans focusing too much on foreign policy affairs” (Blake Neff, 21:26)
• Ground Game Disparity: Democrats advertised 6,000+ grassroots jobs, heavily out-organizing Republicans in field operations.
• Demographic Shift: Younger voters, women, and minority groups swinging heavily Democratic.
  • "If you have a 20 plus percent...differential on candidates for females...you're going to lose every time." (Tyler Boyer, 25:33)
  • "The economy for people under 30 is catastrophic." (Blake Neff, 28:42)
• Donor Mismatch: Limited resources mean Turning Point must pick its battles; criticized expectations that the organization can compete nationally everywhere without adequate funding.

6. The Demand for Big, Bold Wins

• Economic Messaging: Persistent dissatisfaction with Republicans’ focus—too much time on foreign affairs, not enough on kitchen-table issues like housing, inflation, wages.
  • "It's the economy, stupid. I know that it's cliche at this point, but that's true." (Blake Neff, 19:50)
• Need for “Moonshot” Policies: Calls for large, visionary projects (e.g., massive home-building initiatives) to energize and inspire disaffected, low-propensity voters, especially young people.

7. Voter Turnout and Demographic Realities

• Gender Gap: "Women just vote more. They just vote more often. They're more predictable voters and they tend to be prone to emotional arguments that Democrats make." (Blake Neff, 26:39)
• Youth Vote: Blowback from federal priorities and a stagnant economy among under-40s—losing this demographic is electoral suicide.
  • “If you are losing it by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election.” (Tyler Boyer, 29:01)
• Hispanic Swing: Warning about Hispanic turnout dropping off for conservatives, threatening gains in Sun Belt states like Texas.

8. The Path Forward

• Focus on Ground Game and Candidate Quality: Build lean, effective infrastructure in key states.
• Donor Alignment: Conservative donors need to fund proven field operations, not just national advertising.
• Refusal to Black Pill: Despite setbacks, the show insists conservatives must keep fighting, reiterating that progress is possible with concerted effort.

Notable Quotes and Moments (with Timestamps)

• "It's only cope to say that, oh, these were blue states...The truth is that we did worse than we did in 2021."
  — Blake Neff, [01:27]

• "This is like target number one for the Democrats to topple"
  — Tyler Boyer, [05:09]

• “To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics.”
  — Tyler Boyer, [04:09]

• "Turning Point's huge. They're a national organization. They have a ton of money. They have a ton of volunteers...How do I fight that?"
  — Julie Spilsbury (quoted), [11:36]

• "Enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things. I think, again, it's this foreign policy fixation."
  — Blake Neff, [21:26]

• “If you have a 20 plus percent...differential on candidates for females...you're going to lose every time.”
  — Tyler Boyer, [25:33]

• "If you are losing it by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election."
  — Tyler Boyer, [29:01]

• "The coalition that we built on working people, even some union people, blacks, Hispanics...The Hispanic vote fell off a cliff too."
  — Blake Neff, [30:35]

• “We don't fight because we know we're gonna win. We fight because we know it's the right thing to do.”
  — Blake Neff, [36:02]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:20] — Election recap: “It was bad.”
• [02:24–06:46] — Mesa, AZ recall deep dive—method, significance, national implications.
• [11:36] — Julie Spilsbury’s defeated candidate testimonial on Turning Point’s ground game.
• [12:51–14:51] — New Hampshire special election: Key win, ground game analysis.
• [15:26–16:59] — Discussion on donor realities, limits of ground game, and focused strategic investment.
• [18:01–20:56] — Breakdown of GOP’s problem: Messaging, enthusiasm gap, economic issues, and perception vs. reality.
• [24:14–26:39] — Gender, age, and turnout dynamics; Virginia and New Jersey implications.
• [27:40–29:01] — Youth vote and demographic trends: The looming crisis with young and Hispanic voters.
• [32:06] — The three keys to future conservative victory: enthusiasm, infrastructure, and candidate quality.
• [36:02] — Closing remarks: The necessity of continued fighting, not based on certainty of victory, but on principle.

Closing Tone and Takeaway

The episode is frank and introspective, blending criticism, self-awareness, and determined optimism. The speakers accept both strategic failures and inherent demographic challenges but point to Arizona (and to a degree, New Hampshire) as models of what is possible when grassroots work is prioritized. The call to action is clear: double down on local activism, re-align donors with ground realities, innovate on economic policy, and never stop fighting—even during setbacks.