What Went Right in Arizona, and Left Everywhere Else

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "What Went Right in Arizona, and Left Everywhere Else"

The Charlie Kirk Show | November 5, 2025

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Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

This episode focuses on analyzing the results from the most recent round of U.S. elections, emphasizing why conservatives suffered setbacks in most places while celebrating a rare victory in Mesa, Arizona. Host Charlie Kirk, joined by Turning Point Action COO Tyler Boyer, Blake Neff, and others, dissects political trends, messaging failures, demographic challenges, and the crucial role of grassroots activism. They underline the necessity for renewed conservative energy, sound candidate selection, and targeted local strategies to counteract Democratic organization and enthusiasm.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Election Night Recap: Conservative Losses and One Big Win

• General Mood: Acknowledgment of widespread conservative defeats, especially in key races—"It was bad...we did worse than we did in 2021." (Charlie Kirk, 01:27)
• Mesa, Arizona Victory: Turning Point Action’s grassroots spearheaded the recall of Julie Spilsbury, the “Republicans for Kamala” face in Mesa.
  • "This is like target number one for the Democrats to topple." (Tyler Boyer, 05:09)
  • Importance stressed as Mesa sits in pivotal Maricopa County—“As Phoenix goes...the presidency goes.” (Tyler Boyer, 08:32)

2. The Mesa Recall: Strategy and Implications

• Opponent Profile: Julie Spilsbury portrayed as a “fake Republican” backed by Democratic interests, aiming to subvert local conservative strongholds.
• Tactics Used: Intense grassroots organizing—door knocking, petitions, volunteer work, and local coalition-building.
• National Attention: Major outlets (NYT, Politico, Axios) framed this local recall as a major referendum on Trump and broader conservative strength.
  • “They were all out here on a city council race following everything...because what they were hoping was that we were gonna fail.” (Blake Neff, 07:25)
• Demoralizing Democrats' Strategy: The message sent to Democrats—Arizona is no longer an easy target, which may impact future DNC investment.

3. Turning Point’s Grassroots vs. Establishment Narrative

• Notable Quote: "To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics." (Tyler Boyer, 04:09)
• Julie Spilsbury’s Complaint: She accused Turning Point of overwhelming her with national money and volunteers (11:36). Boyer pushes back, affirming all canvassers were local.

4. Lessons from New Hampshire and Beyond

• Special election in Berlin, NH, won by GOP with a margin of 13 votes, was aided by Turning Point’s vote-chasing ground game—“That probably did directly make the difference.” (Blake Neff, 13:19)
• New Hampshire and Arizona highlighted as states where conservative infrastructure made an impact, pushing back against the idea that conservatives can't win even in blue-leaning environments.

5. Challenges Facing Conservatives Elsewhere

• Enthusiasm Gap: A recognition that Democratic voters were more energized.
  • “Enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things...Republicans focusing too much on foreign policy affairs” (Blake Neff, 21:26)
• Ground Game Disparity: Democrats advertised 6,000+ grassroots jobs, heavily out-organizing Republicans in field operations.
• Demographic Shift: Younger voters, women, and minority groups swinging heavily Democratic.
  • "If you have a 20 plus percent...differential on candidates for females...you're going to lose every time." (Tyler Boyer, 25:33)
  • "The economy for people under 30 is catastrophic." (Blake Neff, 28:42)
• Donor Mismatch: Limited resources mean Turning Point must pick its battles; criticized expectations that the organization can compete nationally everywhere without adequate funding.

6. The Demand for Big, Bold Wins

• Economic Messaging: Persistent dissatisfaction with Republicans’ focus—too much time on foreign affairs, not enough on kitchen-table issues like housing, inflation, wages.
  • "It's the economy, stupid. I know that it's cliche at this point, but that's true." (Blake Neff, 19:50)
• Need for “Moonshot” Policies: Calls for large, visionary projects (e.g., massive home-building initiatives) to energize and inspire disaffected, low-propensity voters, especially young people.

7. Voter Turnout and Demographic Realities

• Gender Gap: "Women just vote more. They just vote more often. They're more predictable voters and they tend to be prone to emotional arguments that Democrats make." (Blake Neff, 26:39)
• Youth Vote: Blowback from federal priorities and a stagnant economy among under-40s—losing this demographic is electoral suicide.
  • “If you are losing it by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election.” (Tyler Boyer, 29:01)
• Hispanic Swing: Warning about Hispanic turnout dropping off for conservatives, threatening gains in Sun Belt states like Texas.

8. The Path Forward

• Focus on Ground Game and Candidate Quality: Build lean, effective infrastructure in key states.
• Donor Alignment: Conservative donors need to fund proven field operations, not just national advertising.
• Refusal to Black Pill: Despite setbacks, the show insists conservatives must keep fighting, reiterating that progress is possible with concerted effort.

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Notable Quotes and Moments (with Timestamps)

• "It's only cope to say that, oh, these were blue states...The truth is that we did worse than we did in 2021."
  — Blake Neff, [01:27]

• "This is like target number one for the Democrats to topple"
  — Tyler Boyer, [05:09]

• “To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics.”
  — Tyler Boyer, [04:09]

• "Turning Point's huge. They're a national organization. They have a ton of money. They have a ton of volunteers...How do I fight that?"
  — Julie Spilsbury (quoted), [11:36]

• "Enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things. I think, again, it's this foreign policy fixation."
  — Blake Neff, [21:26]

• “If you have a 20 plus percent...differential on candidates for females...you're going to lose every time.”
  — Tyler Boyer, [25:33]

• "If you are losing it by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election."
  — Tyler Boyer, [29:01]

• "The coalition that we built on working people, even some union people, blacks, Hispanics...The Hispanic vote fell off a cliff too."
  — Blake Neff, [30:35]

• “We don't fight because we know we're gonna win. We fight because we know it's the right thing to do.”
  — Blake Neff, [36:02]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:20] — Election recap: “It was bad.”
• [02:24–06:46] — Mesa, AZ recall deep dive—method, significance, national implications.
• [11:36] — Julie Spilsbury’s defeated candidate testimonial on Turning Point’s ground game.
• [12:51–14:51] — New Hampshire special election: Key win, ground game analysis.
• [15:26–16:59] — Discussion on donor realities, limits of ground game, and focused strategic investment.
• [18:01–20:56] — Breakdown of GOP’s problem: Messaging, enthusiasm gap, economic issues, and perception vs. reality.
• [24:14–26:39] — Gender, age, and turnout dynamics; Virginia and New Jersey implications.
• [27:40–29:01] — Youth vote and demographic trends: The looming crisis with young and Hispanic voters.
• [32:06] — The three keys to future conservative victory: enthusiasm, infrastructure, and candidate quality.
• [36:02] — Closing remarks: The necessity of continued fighting, not based on certainty of victory, but on principle.

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Closing Tone and Takeaway

The episode is frank and introspective, blending criticism, self-awareness, and determined optimism. The speakers accept both strategic failures and inherent demographic challenges but point to Arizona (and to a degree, New Hampshire) as models of what is possible when grassroots work is prioritized. The call to action is clear: double down on local activism, re-align donors with ground realities, innovate on economic policy, and never stop fighting—even during setbacks.

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Transcript

[A]

My name is Charlie Kirk. I run the largest pro American student organization in the country, fighting for the future of our republic. My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth. If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're gonna end up miserable. But if the most important thing is doing good, you will end up purposeful. College is a scam, everybody. You gotta stop sending your kids to college. You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible. Go start a Turning Point USA College chapter. Go start a Turning Point USA High School chapter. Go find out how your church can get involved. Sign up and become an activist. I gave my life to the Lord in fifth grade. Most important decision I ever made in my life. And I encourage you to do the same. Here I am, Lord. Use me. Buckle up, everybody. Here we go. The Charlie Kirk show is proudly sponsored by Preserve Gold. But the leading gold and silver experts and the only precious metals company I recommend to my family, friends and viewers.

[B]

All right. Welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show. It's the day after what was largely a very lackluster, I would say, dispiriting evening.

[C]

No, let's just. Let's just not. Let's just rip the band aid off. It was bad.

[B]

It was bad.

[C]

He got whacked in the races that, you know, it didn't go well.

[B]

It didn't go well. And it's only cope to say that, oh, these were blue states. I mean, I think there is some truth to that. I think you could overreact because, again, this is New Jersey, it's Virginia. But the truth is that we did worse than we did in 2021. Okay. In these places. So it was a step back, and we need to be honest about that and acknowledge that. I'm joined by Blake Neff and Tyler Boyer, COO of Turning Point Action. There was one bright spot. There was a. Okay, listen. There was actually a few maybe bright spots, one extraordinarily bright spot, and that was here in Mesa, Arizona. And the Turning Point action team led the charge on that. The grassroots rose up and ousted in a really difficult scenario, Spilsbury, who was the Republicans for Kamala leader in the state of Arizona. So, Tyler Boyer, why don't you tell us the backstory there?

[D]

Yeah, I mean, this is. This was covered by the New York Times. I'm dropping in the chat if we want to throw it up. Politico brought this up. This is a huge race. So essentially what happened was the face of Republicans for Kamala. So you want to talk about Soros type funded ventures. You had this entire mind f whatever you want to call it, that happened in 2020, 2024, where they funded these fake Republicans for Biden and then Republican later became Republicans for Harris or conservatives for Harris and all the key swing states. So the face of this organization in many ways was the mayor of Mesa, Arizona. His name was John Giles.

[C]

He.

[D]

He got termed out and so was done this last year. And his former vice mayor, Julie Spilsbury, who both were lds, both were Mormon and they were running as the face of this national operation that was abandoned. Trump, if you're Republican and vote against him in 2024, he spoke at the DNC. She was very vocal. She was on advertisements, you know, with espousing her elected position that she should be trusted. And this is like Alinsky Tactics 101 is use all these things to try to persuade kind of the more feeble voter. The people that don't know as much going on and saying, oh, everybody's voting against Trump and so therefore I should too.

[B]

All right, so what are the lessons here from this local race that we can extrapolate to the national scene?

[D]

So this is the heart of the, I mean these types of psyops, some people call them, these type of things that happen within politics are at the heart of how they control the narrative around these elections. So we ran or we didn't run the grassroots ran it, we supported it fully. Was removing this person from office. To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics. But this is so important to do when people try to run these type of operations. And it was hard work. You have to go out, recruit all of the people to do it. You have to collect the petitions and then ultimately win the election. This lady, last year, the significance of this in Arizona, Arizona, this is one of the biggest cities in America. It's like top 35 cities.

[B]

This is actually Maricopa is like the fifth largest metro area all in. I know not Mesa specifically, but people need to understand how big this is.

[D]

The fourth largest metropolitan area in the country and it's. And the Phoenix metro area. So Phoenix, Mesa is usually how it's referred to, is the most conservative out of the big metro areas. So this is like target number one for the Democrats to topple. The Democrats want to turn Maricopa county blue for obvious reasons. They. We all know all the hanky panky that's gone on with elections and everything else that's getting somewhat corrected. Not fully as Much as we'd like, but getting in there. This is the target prime, target number one. And so this is why they choose people like this to lead the face of these type of operations. And this is why it's so important to remove these people from office, because.

[B]

It'S the heart of it. They would recruit a more a Mormon to do this too. So I just want to, like, I want to crystallize this for everybody. This is a recall election where it's an R versus an R. That's the toughest type of election to educate a population that's kind of checked out. It's an off cycle off your election, which are. Am I choosing? Right. And so you have to then do the grassroots work, the door knocking in order to get this over the top.

[D]

Because one. One. This is how they do it. Right. So one is like a fraudulent Republican that's. That has the backing of all the Democrats.

[B]

It's a Republican for Kamala.

[D]

Yeah. It's all the backing of all the Democrat Party. So basically, to win this election, you have to overcome the establishment, some people refer it to as the uniparty. And then you have to also tackle the Democrat Party.

[B]

Yeah. Because they're not going to run a Democrat in this district because it's so conservative. So they're putting a wolf in sheep's clothing to come and do this in a place like Mesa.

[D]

Yeah. Because they're trying to flip Mesa.

[B]

Right.

[D]

Like, over time, they want to make Mesa blue. And so they've been fairly successful at this in years past. And you're basically even in a place where it's 60% Republican. That's. That's like this district. This district's like 50, 55, 60% Republican. But again, it's like 30 plus percent, 40% Democrat. You have to, again, win basically, all the Republicans. Educate all the Republicans to vote against her. So yesterday, that was the huge bright spot was this leader. This was a national leader in a swing state. A national leftist leader in a swing state.

[B]

And let me just back that up. There was Axios, There was Politico, There was New York Times. They were all out here on a city council race following everything. Following everything, calling everybody, like, harassing everybody on the team, trying to make this a national referendum. Because what they were hoping was that we were gonna fail and that Julie Spillsbury was going to be reelected, and we're gonna see, oh, this another referendum on Trump. Well, it didn't work out that way. And turning point action, I mean, hat tip to you guys, you guys were on this from the jump. I mean, it was spearheaded by the grassroots, Right. And people were like, well, why are you getting so involved? It's like, well, listen, our grassroots wants to be involved in this. We're gonna have their backs. We're gonna be a voice for the grassroots and muscular class. We're not gonna let this just go unnoticed and unresolved here. So, yeah, of course we're gonna support the grassroots.

[C]

And of course, also, this is. I mean, this is. Charlie cared a lot about making Phoenix and Arizona as conservative, as Republican as possible.

[A]

Of course.

[C]

Well, you have to look at how they react. Politico has a headline a few days ago. This is like the first test of Turning point as an actual.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

They want to muscle in politics.

[D]

You have to Blake. In order Just to flip the state. Because if. Where. As Phoenix goes, the Phoenix metropolitan area goes. Arizona goes. As Arizona goes, statistically, the presidency goes.

[C]

Yeah.

[D]

And also when people don't realize this is that these things are so critical because if you lose them, it gives. It emboldens the left to spend millions more dollars in your swing state to win the next big election. Today, the Democrats woke up going, wow, they mean business. Maybe we shouldn't invest the millions more dollars into that state next election cycle because it's not worth it. We need to come up with a different strategy to win in 2028. That is exactly what we want them to do.

[B]

Well, if you run the models, it's like. What is it like? 70% of the Democrat models to win a nationwide presidential race go through Arizona.

[D]

That's right.

[B]

So if you break the back of the Democrat Party in this state, you demoralize them and you let them know, like, hey, there's a new sheriff in town. We're not gonna be messed with, and we're gonna pour a ton of resources and manpower into this state. Well, guess what? Their models get a lot trickier, a lot more difficult. And so that's why we are not going anywhere in the state of Arizona. As a matter of fact, Tyler, safe to say we are doubling. Tripling down in the future.

[D]

That's right. And we have more on this. I think we should share some of these videos.

[B]

Yeah, well, it's gonna be pre. Yeah, we could do. Let's go. 290. 290. Real quick. Yeah.

[E]

Look, I. People are always saying that they wish they had better candidates that would run for office. I don't think that's true. Because when good people run for office, just because I want to serve my community and Then this is what happens to me. Why would anyone want to run when you have groups like Turning Point that can go out there and put up thousands of signs?

[B]

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[A]

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[B]

Let'S go ahead and play. 292. Tyler, I think you're gonna like this. This is Julie Spilsbury claiming that Turning Point's huge and that we bust in a bunch of, like, ballot chasers or something.

[E]

292 turning point's huge. They're a national organization. They have a ton of money. They have a ton of volunteers. There were probably 30 volunteers at the polling place today. Tons of people were flown in from out of state. Lots of people told me that people knocked on their door that weren't even from Arizona. How do I fight that? How do I fight that? And the recall would never have been successful without Turning points. Employees. Over 30 of them out knocking doors that are not from Mesa.

[D]

I mean, thank you for the ad. I. I live in Mesa. Julie. I mean, she already knows that. She was trying to tell all her friends that I'm a good person. And why is Tyler going out? We had all of these people that were knocking doors are all our Arizonans. We've got dozens of staff hired and hired up for Mesa. Not just for the Mesa recall, but also for the upcoming SRP and Andy Biggs election. And so. But yeah, I mean, you can't have a better ad than that.

[B]

The vast majority libs.

[D]

The libs Saying Turning Point's too big and they know what they're doing too well.

[B]

I know, it's a great clip. Let's turn our attention because that was a huge feather in the cap of Turning Point action here in Arizona. But let's turn our attention to New Hampshire. So tell us what happened in New Hampshire. There was a special election there in Berlin, right?

[C]

Yeah, there's a special election in New Hampshire. New Hampshire has extremely small state House seats.

[D]

I think they have the most per capita.

[C]

They have the most per capita. They have, I think the third largest legislature of any kind in the English speaking world. It's like the House of Commons, the House of Representatives and then the New Hampshire State assembly. It has 400 some people in it, I think. Oh, geez, let's put up 294.

[B]

Yeah, there it is.

[C]

So this is Davis Miller, one of our guys. He says special elections are all about turnout. This special election was decided by 13 votes. Turning Point Action had two Superchase events there ahead of this week's election. And you know, when it's 13 votes, that probably did directly make the difference.

[D]

Yeah, our team was on the ground. We have an incredible team in New Hampshire. We're one of the only national organizations to have full time local staff. Both Davis and Lisa that we have on our team are leaders there. We're going to be hiring up actually dozens more people in the state of New Hampshire for this ahead of 2026 and 2028. But this is where it's all about. The only two states that really had this significant impact are both Arizona and New Hampshire. Yesterday New Hampshire skewed.

[B]

Right?

[D]

It wasn't just. So they gained seats in the legislature, including the special election that was decided by 13 votes where our team had actually done ballot chasing initiatives. We also had a huge mayoral election. So the biggest city in New Hampshire is Manchester. It's not the capital, but it's the biggest city. And a conservative won the mayor race yesterday that was there for Manchester, which is a huge deal when you look at the rest of the country where we had every. I mean a lot of these big cities, you don't even have a Republican running for mayor. A Republican one in Manchester. And again, the pathway to 2028 directly goes through Arizona and New Hampshire.

[B]

Well, and that's. I want to give people a little bit of a sense of where this is going. We are, and I mentioned this last night on the stream, but for those listening now, there is a. I see this on X a lot where they're like you got to get into this race. And why isn't Turning Point coming out here earlier and why isn't. Listen, if somebody wants to fund something, that's one thing, but we have a disconnect with our donor class of what they're willing to invest money in. Okay, so for example, we had people in New Jersey, we had people in pa we had all this stuff. Did we have enough? Obviously not. But secondly, you know, is anybody gonna fund it? Yeah, that's a real big question.

[C]

The turn, like for example, us flipping Arizona last year. This was not. We had some superchase events. This was. We had full time staffers handling quite small geographical areas, knocking on doors regularly, knocking on doors repeatedly, following up, getting to know, building the relationships in all these local areas. Well, that is bluntly not a cheap thing to do. It's not an easy thing to do.

[D]

There's a calculation for it, Blake. I mean, it's really simple. We've done all the math. We can show you the math of what it takes for each of these states and it's really simple. It just breaks down to how many votes exist out there that are low propensity, are enough chaseable to win, and how many bodies do you need to cover those bodies.

[B]

Just so you know, we had, I mean, I don't want to give away the inside scoop here, but yeah, there's a very small population that you put up, you put a staffer on. Very, very small. So, but here's what I want to say. Like I think there's this tendency in, and you see this on X after Charlie's assassination to sort of like think, oh, turning points, like so gargantuan that we can be in all 50 states. That's not at all how it was. Charlie was very good about saying no. Okay, he was saying no to bad investments and he would focus turning points attention. And that's what we're doing. We are very focused on building a red wall that can, that can literally make their models have to go into very unfavorable territory in 2026 and 2028.

[D]

And I'll say this real quick, Andrew, is that you have to have enough time to build it and you have to put the resources down in order to build it.

[B]

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[A]

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[B]

I want to get into what I believe happened last night and then Blake and Tyler, I think, chime in and correct me where I'm wrong and add to it. Here's the bottom line. And I go back to something we talked about with Rich Barris last week. And basically the polling shows something that we need to confront, to be very aware of and be honest about, and that is that a lot of people believe that the things that President Trump were elected on, namely the economy, immigration, energy prices, the affordability crisis, those things are not being addressed. They feel like the Republicans that were elected in November are focusing too much on foreign policy affairs. Their attention is not on the domestic issues. Now, do I think some of that is fair? Sure. Do I think some of it's unfair? I actually really think a lot of it's unfair. I think that we have to wait for some of these policies to take their effect. But perception is reality and some of that perception is showing up in the enthusiasm gaps between Democrats and Republicans. And you saw that last night. You saw a state like Virginia, which Glenn Youngkin held. Every single county moved to the left. Show 283. This is a map of Virginia and every single county moved to the left. There's not one red arrow on that county. What's happening is you're getting a lot of normie sort of working class, ethnic minority voters that said, hey, Trump's good at making me money. I had more money in my pocket when President Trump was president the first time who just come out to the polls because they thought, hey, I'm poorer now I'm give the other guy a shot. And and they don't feel that yet. They don't see it yet. And again, perception is reality. We have to do these big, audacious, crazy policies where I mentioned to Rich Barris, we need a Hoover Dam. Obviously, we're not gonna be building a Dam in 2025, but we need these big visual markers to say, hey, we're breaking ground on this big thing. We're focusing on this big thing we're delivering for our voters. And again, a lot of this is gonna be low propensity, Normie. People that are not checked into the political process every day, like a lot of you that are watching this show, a lot of us that follow this every day, they need big wins that make them feel a certain way, that make them feel like the politicians they elected to office into power are doing the work that they elected them to do. It's the economy, stupid. I know that it's cliche at this point, but that's true. We see that in the polling. There's too much focus on these external affairs. The only one of the domestic policy fronts that President Trump is scoring high on right now is immigration. So, yes, that becomes an animating issue for the left. But ultimately, people, the majority of people, are still happy that the border is not overrun by illegals.

[D]

Well, and keep in mind, Andrew, so off election cycle elections, so non traditional.

[B]

Non presidential years, really, even midterms are.

[D]

Again, this isn't even a midterm election. This is an off president cycle. So what happens is that you have low turnout and the determining factor is who shows up and who gets their people out. So you have.

[B]

It's two points. I was about to get to that point. So the first point is enthusiasm gap. And right now we're just being honest.

[D]

Well, enthusiasm drives turnout.

[B]

Enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things. I think, again, it's this foreign policy fixation. Are those wins important? Yes, because when we have peace in the world, we're allowed to focus on domestic issues. So you almost have to fix all the garbage that was going on in order to be able to fixate on the domestic policy issue. But again, perceptions, reality, we need to as many of these foreign trips and all this stuff, it's really important. It's good. We need to actually message equally, if not way more so on the domestic wins, the domestic achievements here. Right. And then you pair that with an enthusiasm gap. You pair that with something that Data Republican mentioned, really quick throw up image 300. And she's looking across indeed. And the job sites, and she found over 6,000 jobs for grassroots. These are Civic engagement people. This would be ballot chasers on the left. Now make. So here's the pairing of these two nodes. You've gotta have the infrastructure to drive low propensity voters out, but you also have to have policy wins and candidates that, that inspire enthusiasm. It's a both and all right, so in 2024, Kamala Harris still had and the Democrats still had the edge on ballot ground game stuff. They had more people out in the field. My mom in Nevada, swing state, had her door knocked on about 14 times. She was throwing out all of the paperwork, they were leaving the pamphlets and all this stuff because she didn't want to vote for Kamala. It didn't matter. My mom's kind of a swing voter, actually. She's proudly independent. I've been working on her for years. But the point is, because she was on their radar, she got hit up a lot. Okay? It didn't matter because for Kamala, she was a bad candidate. Okay? Trump was coming in after a disastrous four years. People were ready for change. Okay? So you have to pair up enthusiasm with ground game. And when they have 6,000 job postings on the Democrat side to get out ground game and knock on doors. That is a heck of a mountain to climb when you're conservatives with a low prop voting base in an off year election. Okay? So the point is this focus on domestic, focus on policy wins. Perception is reality. You have to show, tell and reveal to the audience the things that you're doing for them to make their lives easier and better, to make them richer. And then finally you have to build the infrastructure. We have to keep building. A lot of people think turning point can be in 50 states. That's not really gonna ever happen. Okay? There's limited resources. The donor class has to align with the new realities of elections and the new realities of the conservative base. And that is that we are a low prop party that's lacking in enthusiasm. And the coalition that we built, we've done a lot to actually alienate them. And we have to be honest about that.

[D]

Well, you brought up something really important, Andrew. Again, look back at Glenn Youngkin's race. Glenn Youngkin's a very nice guy. I just was in a room with him this week and he speaks very well and he, I think he's appealing to a lot of.

[B]

He's a great candidate. I mean, you can disagree with him and call him like a rhino or something. Not true, maga. I'm telling you, the guy's a great candidate for a state like Virginia.

[D]

Well, but let's look back four years ago. Let's look back to when he ran. When he ran, he won because the moms showed up big time. Because if you remember the enthusiasm. So the enthusiasm wave that he rode on was. Remember there was this entire scuffle that was happening across the state of Virginia where parents were showing up to school board meetings and that gave them the wave, the enthusiasm lift for him to win.

[B]

Well, let's check this out. So throw up. Image 296. I think this is really telling Virginia AG race by gender. Look at this. So this again, this is Jay Jones who proudly fetishizes killing his political opponents. Doubles down even when the person on the other end of the text is telling him that they're uncomfortable with the way he's talking. Females 61% to 44 for Jones.

[D]

So Andrew, let me.

[B]

61 to 44.

[D]

Let me spell this out for everyone. If you have a 20 plus percent and in a lot of cases it's more than 20%, a 20 to 30% differential on candidates for females. So the left, they're voting for leftists by 20 to 30 points in addition. And then our males, you saw the numbers. Our men are not matching numbers.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

Are not matching the same numbers. But it's close. Men are voting for the Republicans by 15 to 20 points.

[B]

Yeah, it's 55 to 39.

[D]

But here's the problem.

[B]

16 point edge.

[D]

If fewer men show up to vote and more women show up to vote, then they have a dramatic differential in that. So again, a presidential. You have about the same amount of men and women who show up to vote in a off election year, you have a lot more women potentially show up to vote. I don't have the data in front of me for Virginia, but I can just tell you right now by the outcome is that a lot more women showed up to vote than men. And because of that differential, you're going to lose every time.

[B]

Absolutely. Well, and this is, this was a big story in 2024, how we drove the men out. I mean, there was articles written about turning Point targeting men with text campaigns. I mean, and you had the ent, they were calling it the manosphere and the Rogan effect and all this stuff. Well, guess what? Men are harder to get out to the polls than women. Women just vote more. They just vote more often. They're more predictable voters and they tend to be prone to emotional arguments that Democrats make. Check out this image 297. This is Virginia by how many children do you have? And if you have them. Then you voted for Miyares, the Republican candidate. If you don't, you voted for Jay Jones. So there's another dynamic there. Let's go to New Jersey and go by age. This one's terrifying. Blake and I think you should chime in on this. We're just getting, I mean, I mean, so all the gains that we had with young people, and I'll never forget this, I mean, I don't want to spill too many beans here, but there were at least three instances where Charlie called the administration and said, all the gains that we saw in that election with young people, you guys are jeopardizing them.

[C]

I'll just put it in there, I think. Let's not beat around the bush here, guys. This went bad because right now Trump is an unpopular president. I'm just going to lay it out. President Trump's approval rating on average is about 42%. His disapproval is 55% today. The average today is the lowest it's been his entire second term. Yeah, and if you're in, the guy at the top is not that popular. It's going to have a cascading effect down the ballot. And if you look at individual issues, he's underwater on inflation, he's underwater on trade, he's underwater on the economy, all of those, by over 15 points. He's even underwater on immigration by 5%. And you know, some of that you can debate. Oh, is it because they want it faster versus slower? Besides the point, he's underwater. He's the guy at the top and that's going to affect things. I think the economy has a, is a huge deal. If you look at the numbers. The economy overall is shaky. The economy for people under 30 is catastrophic. Hiring for entry level positions in the US horrible right now.

[B]

Well, and a lot of that you're seeing these average.

[C]

The average age of a first time home buyer is over is just eclipsed. 40 years old. It's gone up, I think nine years or something or seven years in like five years total, it's going up. The average age of a home buyer is rising faster than the passage of time.

[D]

Let's make this point. You, in most states, you cannot win an election if you lose the under 40 vote. You just. The entire electorate has shifted. It is millennial heavy. If you are losing it by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election. And again, the female vote is contributing heavily towards that. We've got to figure it out.

[F]

This is Lane Schoenberger, chief investment officer and founding partner of YREFI it has been an honor and a privilege to partner with Turningpoint and for Charlie to endorse us. His endorsement means the world to us and we look forward to continuing our partnership with Turning Point for years to come. Now hear Charlie in his own words tell you about why Refi.

[A]

I'm going to tell you guys about yrefi.com that is yrefy.com why refi is incredible. Private student loan debt in America totals about $300 billion. Why refi is refinancing distress or defaulted private student loans. You can finally take control of your student loan situation with a plan that works for your monthly budget. Go to yrefi.com that is whyrefi.com do you have a co borrower? Why refi can get them released from the loan. You can skip a payment up to 12 times without penalty. It may not be available in all 50 states. Go to yrefi.com that is yrefy.com let's face it, if you have distress or default to student loans, it can be overwhelming because of privacy loan debt. So many people feel stuck. Go to yrefi.com that is yrefy.com Private student loan debt relief why refi.com we.

[B]

Do remember the 5th of November, last November. It was a great night. It was a night where the coalition came together. A coalition that we built on working people, even some union people, blacks, Hispanics came out. By the way, that was a number that was shocking out of New Jersey last night. The Hispanic vote fell off a cliff too.

[C]

You should worry about that one because that giant house redraw they just did in Texas was based on we're better with Hispanics now so we can do this. If they swerve back to being really blue instead of we pick up five seats in Texas, this could be we lose 10 seats in Texas.

[D]

Well, I'll just say this is that it's again, you're talking low propensity voters, right? So you don't want to infer too much off of a non traditional election, a midterm or a presidential. But what you do want to do is look at the hard numbers and say did these people turn out? It's really easy to. It's really easy to identify. It's really easy to identify. Now to your point, if we look at the data and it shows these people turned out and you lose the election, that's saying something. This is why looking at the data at census block level, at precinct level is really important. Because if you're targeting with Full time staff, the right voters with the right people, you know, geographically, demographically, then you get a better outcome.

[B]

Yeah, again, I think it's three things. Voter enthusiasm. To your point, Trump is at a, at a nadir.

[C]

It's just. Yeah, he's at, he's at a low eb.

[B]

He's at a low ebb. That didn't time out well with these elections. Two, you need the infrastructure, you need donor alignment on what actually works. And it's funny because there's people like, I've not seen any, you know, indication that what Turning Point or Scott Pressler, whatever does is actually working. No, that's the wrong conclusion to draw. You need more, not less. And third, you need good candidates that are popular. I mean, Winsome Sears, I never, no disrespect, I think she's a nice lady. I never thought she was a great candidate for that for the governor in Virginia. And it showed. Go ahead, Ty.

[D]

One thing we didn't talk about yet was that it looks like the goose is cooked on the Minneapolis mayoral race. Omar Fateh looks like lost in ranked choice voting. They have ranked choice voting that's implemented in Minneapolis. And this is the rare occasion where deep blue city ranked choice voting actually benefits a little bit. And Jacob Fry looks like he has squeaked it out by a few thousand votes.

[B]

Wow. Win one for the, I guess the.

[D]

Old school Democrats, but ranked choice voting.

[B]

But again, this is what caused it. I'm gonna say that. I don't know what, what, how people respond to this, but we were commenting even in the cold open of this show and you were listening to it like, he's like, I got four words for you. This is mom Donnie to Trump. Or was it. Yeah, it was to Trump. He goes, I have four words for you. Turn the volume up. And I looked at Blake, I was like, damn, he's talented. Omar Fattah, who is not talented, not talented, not talented at all. Neither is Jacob Fry. But I mean, here's the thing. You had two things happen in the mayoral race in New York City. You had Cuomo, who's got more baggage than American Airlines cross country trip. He's got a ton of baggage, okay? The guy's got sexual assaults. Basically. His policies contributed to killing old people and nursing homes. I mean, the guy's got a lot of baggage in New York. And it was actually a little closer than we expected. I mean, to be fair, right. A lot of the Sliwa vote ended up going over in and going with Cuomo almost unexpectedly because Donnie is Talented. He's a very talented. And I think he's probably the leading Democrat competing with aoc as far as just energy from the base. Yeah.

[C]

I mean, he's a popular guy. Although again with aoc, keep in mind, some of this is Republicans people watching Fox and stuff. They like to fixate. They're the ones that keep putting mascot Democrats as well. So I don't know that you want to leap to the conclusion that he's the immediate head of the party. We can anoint him the head of the party, I suppose, but.

[B]

Well, listen, if he's not the guy. Okay, fine, he's one of the guys. Okay, but. And here's the other thing. We've talked about this a lot, Blake. The. The youth vote that. The gains we made in the youth vote in 2024 were fickle things like bombing Iran. Let's just be honest about it. The Epstein for Caso, like all of this stuff has been chipping away and then. And then they still don't feel like they can buy a home. There's been no moonshot. I mean, I'll never forget Charlie calling for the moonshot. We need 10 million homes. We need to make. And by the way, it's easy to.

[C]

Say like we need a moonshot. That's actually a hugely difficult problem to solve. Like, course, if you want to do that, you need to aggressively, radically deregulate a lot of what restricts home building right now.

[B]

Yeah, you'd have to.

[C]

It's actually a serious problem that takes effort to solve. You'd have to look to imitate the states that have a lot of home building.

[B]

That.

[C]

That would probably be. You know, I bet Texas is pretty good at it. I think the Dakotas are pretty good at it. Florida, I imagine, is pretty good at it. And you have to generalize those and push those along. And it's easy to say, do a moonshot. Landing on the moon was hard. There's a reason we can't do it anymore. We're not the country that landed on the moon in 1961.

[B]

We're gonna have to find that country again. And by the way, there's a huge dynamic in New York that we haven't even got to this hour, the hour flies so fast. But just foreign born voters in New York and in Virginia went overwhelmingly for Mamdani and the Democrats. So you've got foreigners pouring in, they're voting Democrat. And you got young people that came over, gave us a shot, but they were not locked in. And we've done a lot to alienate those things. So you got, there's multiple things here that we gotta focus on our attention on, but we cannot black pill. We fight, fight, fight. We fight on because guess what, there's no other option. We don't fight because we know we're win. We fight because we know it's the right thing to do. And in politics, you know, a year plus until a year until the midterms and we got three years until the presidential, next presidential election. It's a lot of time to make up ground and to fix some of this stuff. And we've got to fixate on it. We gotta do it. For more on many of these stories and news you can Trust, go to charliekirk.com.