The Charlie Kirk Show: "Why Trump Will Win"
Guest: Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster)
Date: October 31, 2020
Episode Overview
In this incisive episode, Charlie Kirk is joined by Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group, known for his accurate 2016 election predictions. With the 2020 election just days away, Cahaly outlines why he firmly believes that Donald Trump is on track for victory—despite widespread polling showing Trump trailing Joe Biden. The discussion delves into Trafalgar's unique methodology, perceived flaws in mainstream polling, key battleground trends, demographic shifts (notably among Black voters and young people), and the so-called "hidden Trump vote."
The conversation is lively, data-focused, and peppered with candid opinions about media, pollsters, and the political climate.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trafalgar’s Unique Polling Methodology
Timestamp: 04:21–11:07
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Shorter Questionnaires:
- Trafalgar uses concise questionnaires (under 3 minutes, 6–7 questions) to engage busy, average people, instead of long, 25+ question polls that only attract the highly political.
- Robert Cahaly: “The average person doesn’t have time for all this nonsense, so we’ve got to get them in and out quick.” (04:36)
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Minimizing Social Desirability Bias:
- Emphasizes anonymity—using digital, text, email, and mixed modes so respondents feel safe giving honest answers, reducing the "shy Trump voter" effect.
- Cahaly: “Most of these polls are literally a live person...that's the worst way to poll.” (05:25)
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Different Likely Voter Models:
- Trafalgar includes low-propensity voters who rarely vote but are likely to show up in 2020, citing success with this approach in 2016.
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Large Sample Sizes:
- Refuses to use 600-person samples, opting for 1,000+ which lowers the margin of error and ensures accuracy.
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Critique of Industry Standards:
- Criticizes "pool" panels, overlong, complex questions, and reliance on landlines, which skew results toward older, hyper-engaged demographics.
- Cahaly: “Average polls...have crazy long questions… attention spans just aren’t that long anymore.” (07:31)
2. Disagreement with Mainstream Polling & Nate Silver
Timestamp: 09:20–11:07
- On Nate Silver/538:
- Described as an aggregator dependent on flawed data; says Silver’s site moves toward the center only because Trafalgar’s results are included.
- Cahaly: “His company makes money on clicks, not accurate polling.” (10:45)
3. Key Demographic Shifts in 2020
A. Black Voters
Timestamp: 02:38, 17:29–19:06
B. Young Voters
Timestamp: 11:20–13:19, 13:52–14:45
C. The “Hidden Vote”
Timestamp: 02:38, 32:33–32:57
- Suggests there remains a large “shy” or “ghost” Trump vote not captured by traditional pollsters due to fear of social stigma or privacy concerns.
4. State-by-State Battleground Breakdown
Timestamp: 15:25–32:09
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Michigan:
- Trafalgar has Trump winning, with Black support and rural turnout key. Urban college areas (Ann Arbor, East Lansing) have dampened turnout due to campus closures.
- Cahaly: “Every indicator in Michigan is getting better” (02:38)
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Minnesota:
- Trump would be ahead if not for Kanye West’s ballot presence siphoning off ~3.3%.
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Wisconsin:
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Pennsylvania:
- Trump ahead by 2–2.5% in trials but must win by 4–5% to “outpace the voter fraud”; expresses worry over election integrity.
- Cahaly: “If he doesn’t win by 4% or more, he will win Pennsylvania, but actually have it stolen from him.” (15:25–16:05)
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Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia:
- Predicts Trump will win all these; discounts mainstream polls showing Biden leads as out of touch or relying on poor methodology.
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Notable Quotes:
- “If the wave is big enough, you could start seeing things like Colorado getting close for Cory Gardner ... even Virginia getting competitive looking.” (32:57)
5. Concerns about Election Integrity and Voter Fraud
Timestamp: 16:05–17:14
- Pennsylvania is highlighted as the state most at risk for election “being stolen,” citing court decisions and alleged systematic laxity in postmark and registration rules, especially in Philadelphia.
- Cahaly: “They just kind of waver through and let them vote anyway.” (16:22)
6. On High Turnout and Changing Electorate
Timestamp: 20:57–24:17
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High early turnout does not favor Democrats by default. Cahaly posits that much of it is “low-propensity voters” (usually non-voters), who are breaking for Trump.
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Cahaly: “A really high turnout is the end for them (Dems).” (23:33)
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Republican rural turnout is surging, while Democratic urban areas are underperforming (e.g., Miami-Dade’s registration advantage dropped from 31% in 2016 to 7% in 2020).
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On Modeling:
- Trafalgar intentionally keeps turnout models “conservative,” matching 2018 assumptions, so as not to appear to bias results for Trump.
- Cahaly: “We want to demonstrate that we’re going to give a number we believe is accurate, even based on the way you think turnout is going to be… I think Trump's going to outperform our polls, too.” (24:17)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On Mainstream Pollsters:
- “Someone’s gonna be wrong this Tuesday.” (25:27, Kirk)
- "Michael Moore is sounding the alarm that the polls are wrong. These guys are stuck in their cell corridor and they don't see outside of it." (25:55, Cahaly)
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On Pennsylvania:
- “If he doesn’t win by 4% or more, he will win Pennsylvania, but actually have it stolen from him.” (16:05, Cahaly)
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On the "Hidden Vote":
- “If the hidden vote is as large as we think... you could see a nice, nice size wave.” (32:57, Cahaly)
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On the Young Vote:
- “Young people have no interest in picking up that phone and talking live. But they will participate in a text poll.” (07:31, Cahaly)
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On Black Voter Impact:
- "When Trump wins this election, it will be unquestionably due to the fact that the black vote can no longer be taken for granted." (18:15, Cahaly)
Important Timestamps
- 04:36: How Trafalgar’s surveys are short and designed for average people
- 11:31: Younger voters’ rejection of further COVID shutdowns
- 13:19–14:45: Why campus closures are hurting Democratic turnout
- 15:25–16:05: Battle for Pennsylvania and concerns of voter fraud
- 17:29: Black vote shifts from undecided to supporting Trump
- 23:33: Why high turnout doesn’t help Democrats in 2020
- 25:27–26:18: Charlie Kirk reads out mainstream poll numbers conflicting with Trafalgar’s results
- 32:33–32:57: Final prediction—a Trump win, with potential for a “red wave”
Conclusion
Robert Cahaly offers a confident and methodically detailed case for why Donald Trump will outperform mainstream polling expectations, driven by methodological adjustments, under-the-radar demographic shifts, and national mood. He forecasts Trump winning critical battlegrounds by margins sufficient to counteract what he describes as the potential for "shenanigans" in states like Pennsylvania. The episode is a robust, energetic counterweight to mainstream polling headlines and adds depth to the ongoing debate about polling accuracy in modern elections.