Podcast Summary: The Charlie Kirk Show
Episode Title: Why We Lost in Wisconsin — Explained
Release Date: April 2, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of The Charlie Kirk Show, host Charlie Kirk, along with guests Blake, Tyler, and Jack, delve deep into the recent electoral defeat in Wisconsin. The discussion centers around understanding the reasons behind the loss, analyzing voter turnout, assessing county-level performances, and strategizing for future elections. The conversation is rich with insights, data analysis, and strategic recommendations aimed at strengthening the Republican grassroots movement.
Election Overview
The episode begins with an analysis of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, where Republican candidate Brad Schimmel faces a significant deficit against Democrat Susan Crawford. Charlie Kirk and his team express concerns over the current electoral landscape, highlighting a 17-point lead for Crawford with approximately 33% of the votes still pending.
Notable Quote:
"Brad Schimmel's got to be at 60, 61% minimum to have a fighting chance statewide or at least to offset Milwaukee."
— Blake [02:22]
Voter Turnout Analysis
A recurring theme throughout the discussion is the crucial role of voter turnout, especially among low-propensity (low-prop) voters. The team underscores the challenge of maintaining high turnout without Donald Trump on the ballot, contrasting it with Trump's ability to galvanize previously inactive voters.
Insights:
- Low-Prop Voters: These are individuals who typically do not participate in elections unless heavily motivated.
- Trump's Impact: Trump's presence significantly increased turnout among rural and working-class voters, effectively making "red counties redder."
- Current Deficit: Without Trump's influence, Republicans face a steep challenge in surpassing the existing voter deficit.
Notable Quote:
"The low prop voters did not show up in the numbers that we needed. These are the working-class men that showed up for Trump and then they just disappear."
— Jack [03:10]
County-by-County Breakdown
The discussion provides a granular analysis of key counties in Wisconsin, each playing a pivotal role in the election outcome.
-
Waukesha County:
- Current Status: Down to 58% with 80% of votes counted.
- Historical Significance: Traditionally a stronghold for conservatives, now requiring a 62-63% threshold.
- Challenges: High deficit and insufficient voter turnout.
Notable Quote:
"We're down by six in Kenosha... KENOSHA, you're back six points. Right now. You're down 3,000 votes. That's a lot for a place that you're hoping to win."
— Tyler [05:23] -
Ozaukee County:
- Current Status: Brad Schimmel is trailing by four points.
- Strategy: Requires a healthy margin of victory on election day to offset losses elsewhere.
Notable Quote:
"You need to win by four points in Ozaukee to help offset those Milwaukee votes."
— Jack [04:33] -
Dane County:
- Current Status: Brad Schimmel holds at 21%, just above the minimum threshold.
- Importance: Essential to prevent "completely Haywire" outcomes.
Notable Quote:
"Dane county is about 50 in and Schimmel's down to 21, which again, you're knocking on the door."
— Blake [06:12] -
Kenosha and Racine Counties:
- Current Status: Schimmel struggles in Kenosha with a six-point deficit; Racine remains precarious.
- Implications: These counties are vital for a statewide win, requiring intensified voter mobilization efforts.
Notable Quote:
"Kenosha county is up to 73% in favor of Crawford. That's worse than when it was at 50."
— Tyler [05:47]
Challenges and Infrastructure Issues
A significant portion of the episode addresses the systemic challenges faced by the Republican campaign machinery in Wisconsin.
Key Points:
- Lack of Permanent Infrastructure: Unlike Democrats, Republicans lack a robust, permanent grassroots infrastructure capable of consistent voter mobilization.
- Resource Allocation: Democrats benefit from established networks, including unions and full-time operatives, which Republicans are only beginning to build.
- Volunteer Engagement: Current Republican volunteer efforts in Wisconsin are insufficient, with only around 4,000 active volunteers against the needed 5,000-6,000.
- Professional Grassroots Operatives: Emphasis on hiring full-time community organizers to match the Democrats' organizational capabilities.
Notable Quotes:
"The left has those people already, and we know this because they have the unions. They, they give union workers time off. They already have the C4 set up, they pay them."
— Blake [12:22]
"You have to have full time grassroots professionals, community organizers, to win in each of these neighborhoods."
— Jack [36:11]
Future Strategy and Recommendations
The guests propose several strategic initiatives to address the outlined challenges and enhance future electoral performance.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Developing Post-Trump Strategies: Formulating methods to energize low-prop voters in the absence of Donald Trump on the ballot.
- Building Permanent Infrastructure: Investing in long-term grassroots organizations across key states to ensure consistent voter engagement.
- Community Organizing Model: Adopting a community-focused approach akin to the successful models used in Arizona, emphasizing face-to-face voter interactions.
- Engaging Diverse Coalitions: Actively reaching out to various voter coalitions, including the MAGA movement, to broaden support bases.
- Investment in Full-Time Staff: Allocating substantial resources to hire and maintain full-time grassroots professionals dedicated to voter mobilization.
Notable Quotes:
"If you want to win elections, you need grassroots professionals, otherwise known as community organizers."
— Jack [36:11]
"The right has built almost nothing permanent in most states. We got to invest significantly into these states, put the ground forces, the infrastructure, and figure out how to build the community organizer model."
— Blake [64:07]
Conclusion
The episode concludes with a candid reflection on the electoral defeat in Wisconsin, framing it not as a catastrophic loss but as a critical learning opportunity. The team emphasizes the necessity of adapting strategies, building robust grassroots infrastructures, and continuously engaging with the electorate to secure future victories.
Closing Remarks:
- Resilience and Adaptation: Acknowledgment that losses are part of the political process and an opportunity to refine strategies.
- Future Outlook: Optimism about upcoming elections, particularly victories in Florida, and the importance of maintaining momentum.
- Call to Action: Encouragement for listeners to subscribe, engage with the movement, and contribute to ongoing efforts to strengthen Republican presence nationwide.
Notable Quotes:
"This is a wake-up call, but we still control the White House. We control the Senate, we control the House of Representatives."
— Jack [60:10]
"Politics have not ended. Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are not the final end of all politics."
— Charlie Kirk [60:10]
Key Takeaways
- Voter Mobilization is Critical: High voter turnout, particularly among low-prop voters, is essential for Republican success in off-year elections.
- Infrastructure Deficit: Republicans need to build and maintain permanent grassroots infrastructures to compete effectively against Democrats' established networks.
- Strategic Investments: Allocating resources towards full-time community organizers and expanding volunteer bases can bridge the current electoral gaps.
- Future Preparedness: Developing post-Trump strategies and engaging diverse voter coalitions are vital for sustaining Republican momentum in future elections.
This episode serves as both a sobering analysis of current electoral challenges and a roadmap for strategic improvements within the Republican movement. By addressing infrastructure gaps and enhancing voter engagement strategies, Charlie Kirk and his team aim to fortify the grassroots foundation necessary for future victories.