The Iran War Has No Exit

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Chris Cuomo Project

Episode: "The Iran War Has No Exit"

Date: April 23, 2026
Host: Chris Cuomo
Guest: Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Chris Cuomo sits down with geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer to dissect the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and wider Middle East players. The conversation centers on the complexity and intractability of the Iran war, the political maneuvering at play—especially under the Trump administration—and why, regardless of the outcomes of current negotiations, there is no straightforward exit or solution. The discussion delves into the regional power dynamic, US political strategy, economic fallout, and the blurring lines between public office and personal profit within the Trump team.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Current State of the Iran War (00:00–05:30)

• Negotiations and Posturing:

  • Ian Bremmer explains that the talks are ongoing but fraught, with both sides looking to maximize leverage before face-to-face meetings. The US aims to pre-negotiate difficult issues (like nuclear enrichment) before arriving at formal talks. (01:55)
  • Chris questions the seriousness and credibility of US efforts, particularly Trump's reliance on personal connections (son-in-law Jared Kushner, senators lacking experience, etc.). (02:57)

• Regime Change Narrative:

  • Cuomo and Bremmer agree that Trump’s claims of regime change in Iran are unfounded and serve more as political messaging than fact. (04:29–04:57)
  • Quote (Bremmer, 04:57):

    "We all know that that is bullshit, right? I mean, that is Trump trying to move the goalposts on a war aim when he said it was never really about regime change. But don’t worry because I already got rid of that regime and these guys we can actually talk to.”

2. The Players—Negotiators, Influence, and Conflicts of Interest (05:31–10:45)

• Trump’s Tactics and Credibility:

  • Trump’s credibility is questioned due to inconsistent statements and actions—threats of escalation, liftings of sanctions, and public posturing not matching ground realities. (05:49–08:35)
  • The blockades and targeted actions signal increased resolve, but do little to convince adversaries of Trump’s consistency or toughness. (08:35)

• Kushner’s Role and Controversy:

  • Bremmer challenges Cuomo’s dismissal of Kushner’s influence, crediting him with pivotal relationships and the Abraham Accords, albeit while acknowledging severe conflict of interest and ethical lapses. (08:40–10:45)
  • Quote (Bremmer, 09:51):

    “This is not draining the swamp. This is embracing—it’s expanding the swamp… But Jared is the singular person responsible for the biggest breakthrough Trump had in his first term in the Middle East.”

3. The Abraham Accords—Real Progress or Self-Dealing? (12:54–17:41)

• Debate Over Impact:

  • Cuomo argues the Abraham Accords may have been more about personal gain for Kushner than Middle East peace. (12:54)
  • Bremmer pushes back, highlighting enduring diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Gulf states—especially the UAE—while acknowledging these are not solutions to core conflicts. (14:38–16:36)
  • Quote (Bremmer, 16:36):

    “These are family run monarchies… their ownership and the government and the business all are interlinked and inoperable.”

• Private-Public Sector Blurring:

  • The Gulf states' approach to governance blurs private/public lines, making US ethical standards feel irrelevant in the region but problematic for American governance. (16:35–17:41)

4. Money, Corruption, and Manipulation (17:41–23:46)

• Systemic Insider Deals:
  • Cuomo highlights the pattern of money flowing to Trump-world insiders from Gulf states. (18:33–19:46)
  • Bremmer calls for investigations into apparent insider trading and corruption, framing these deals as antithetical to the rule of law. (19:46–20:21)
  • Both discuss the broader media and political ecosystem aligning with foreign interests (mentioning, for example, Tucker Carlson potentially receiving foreign funding). (20:21–21:48)
  • Quote (Bremmer, 19:46):

    “The idea that these governments are very happy to put cash into the pockets of Trump and family and friends and insiders to get policy outcomes they like is antithetical to rule of law.”

5. The War’s Intractable Nature (23:19–28:11)

• No One Wants the War to End (Except the US Public):

  • Cuomo and Bremmer contend that Iran and Israel are incentivized to prolong the conflict for relevance and freedom to act, leaving only the US—and its frustrated public—eager for an end. (23:19–23:58)
  • Bremmer details how, despite regime stability, Iran faces major economic and infrastructural crises, making the elite potentially more interested in ending hostilities. (23:58–24:31)
  • Region-wide interests are cross-cutting, with Gulf states caught between not wanting war but fearing unchecked Iranian influence. (25:55)

• Predicted Path Forward:

  • Even if face-saving deals are announced, actual implementation is unlikely; market rallies and media narratives will mask a lack of substantive change. Israeli and proxy actions can easily restart conflict. (25:55–28:11)

6. Domestic Political Calculations and the War’s Exit (28:43–43:15)

• The 60-Day War Powers Window:

  • Cuomo proposes a scenario in which Trump uses the War Powers Resolution "off ramp" to end the conflict legally, blaming Congress and taking credit. (28:43–33:13)
  • Quote (Cuomo, 32:35):

    “So you’re going to leave. You beat them up. You’ll say it’s a win because you killed all these people… That is the best way. And I believe the most likely way, as crazy as what I just said, is based on where things stand today.”

• Trump’s Narrative Control:

  • Both agree Trump excels at shifting narratives to claim victory, regardless of the facts or long-term impact. (33:25–34:03)
  • Some GOP strategists believe distancing from Trump and the war will be their path for the midterms—claiming they ended the war Trump started. (35:47)

7. The Unfolding and Enduring Consequences (38:10–49:25)

• Long-Term Economic Fallout:
  • Bremmer points to severe economic aftereffects—supply chain disruptions, loss of American influence in arms sales, and global shortages (e.g., jet fuel, semiconductors, medical supplies). (45:42–49:25)
  • Trump’s logic, according to Cuomo, is that these are "them problems"—issues for Europe and the world, not the US. (49:25)
  • Quote (Bremmer, 45:42):

    “Even if Trump says we won and it’s all good, you’re going to have semiconductors that won’t be produced… These are real challenges… This is going to be several years before you actually work through all of the damage.”

8. War’s Ending and Legacy (49:25–End)

• Trump’s Focus on Personal Gain:
  • Bremmer suggests Trump may be shifting focus fully to personal enrichment, as the political cost of the war becomes unavoidable. (52:27)
  • The conversation closes with concern over the destructive transformation of MAGA’s anti-establishment movement and an America now exposed as unprincipled on the global stage. (53:09–53:46)

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Notable Quotes

• On Regime Change Claims

  • (Bremmer, 04:57)

    "We all know that that is bullshit, right?... Trump trying to move the goalposts on a war aim..."

• On Corruption and Self-Dealing

  • (Bremmer, 09:51)

    "This is not draining the swamp. This is... expanding the swamp."

  • (Bremmer, 19:46)

    "The idea that these governments are very happy to put cash into the pockets of Trump and family and friends and insiders to get policy outcomes... is antithetical to rule of law."

• On the Lasting Damage of the War

  • (Bremmer, 45:42)

    "Even if Trump says we won and it's all good, you're going to have semiconductors that won't be produced... This is going to be several years before you actually work through all of the damage."

• On Narrative Versus Reality

  • (Cuomo, 32:35)

    "You’ll say it’s a win because you killed all these people… That is the best way. And I believe the most likely way, as crazy as what I just said, is based on where things stand today."

• On America’s Image

  • (Cuomo, 54:06)

    "Never has America's concern, America's weakness, America's unseemly side been as naked to the world as it is right now."

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Important Timestamps

• 00:00–05:30: Setting the stage—status of negotiations, actors, and conflict narrative.
• 08:35–10:45: Kushner’s credentials and the Abraham Accords debate.
• 17:41–23:46: Corruption, insider deals, and compromised narratives.
• 25:55–28:11: Predicted outcomes and why the war has no exit.
• 28:43–34:03: War Powers Act, possible US exit scenarios, and Trump’s narrative tactics.
• 45:31–49:25: Long-term economic impact and global fallout.
• 53:09–54:06: Wrap-up: American exceptionalism exposed, future uncertain.

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Tone & Dynamic

• Straight-Talk, Realpolitik:
  The exchange is candid, combative at times, and rooted in hard-nosed assessment over wishful thinking. Cuomo repeatedly presses for explanation and accountability, while Bremmer grounds forecasts in geopolitics and economics.
• Skeptical and Jaded:
  The tone is skeptical of both sides’ intentions and highly critical of the merging of private enrichment and public policy.

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For New Listeners

This episode delivers a sobering, detailed look at the Iran conflict, international deal-making, and the domestic-political incentives driving Washington’s response. The hosts offer well-sourced, sometimes biting insights into why this war is all but impossible to end cleanly, why narrative control trumps (pun intended) policy, and how American political and economic power is being squandered in real time. This episode is a must for anyone seeking to understand not only the headlines but the structural forces at play in the Middle East and Washington.

Transcript

[A]

We are at a crisis point at the war in Iran and it could go different ways or it could go no way. But there are clues and there are major implications to what's happening right now. Some are political, but most of them are geopolitical and economic. And you have to understand why what's happening with the Iran war is so dangerous. As a critical thinker and to the primary ambition that unites us all, which was taking care of our country, it is all up for grabs. And to understand how it all goes from being like this to woven together into a real tapestry of what is coming our way is Mr. Ian Bremmer of Gzero Media and the Eurasia Group. This is a man who, who knows the players in the Middle east, knows what is happening and know why things are going to get worse no matter what happens in the near term. So what is the micro? What is the macro? What is the short term, what is the mid and long term? These are all the questions that you need answers to. And one man can help you with each and all. And his name is is Ian Bremmer. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo podcast. Thank you for being with me. And now listen to this. Ian Bremmer, always a pleasure. Help me understand what is going on with these talks. I mean, is this all just posturing the security thing with J.D. vance, but he hasn't left, but is he going and the regimes saying, oh yeah, we're going to go as soon as you do this. What's going on? Give me your read.

[B]

So I mean, clearly this is not about the talks might be off. It is more that they want less work in Islamabad, they're working with the Pakistanis. There's I think, a pretty decent working relationship at this point from the United States. On that side, there's a three page Memorandum of understanding which basically sets out the, the principles of, of what an agreement would look like. And there's a lot of back and forth happening right now before the two sides are actually face to face. And I think they want more progress. They don't want a big distance on the difficult issues, particularly around the nuclear enrichments, the, the timing and the rest so that they're not having to spend a day in Islamabad and then coming back with yet another discussion about how they need to maybe have the talk. So that's why they're trying to pre bake more of this.

[A]

Chris, at this point I want to say I now understand and it's not that your reasoning isn't crystal, it is, I still don't get it. And, and here's what I don't. Here's why I don't get it. One, how is this taken as seriously when he's sending his son in law who's doing nothing but raking up money from the region and has zero expertise? I don't understand that. How is this serious when JD Vance. It's a security threat. I think I'll send him. He has no, he knows nothing in the region. He doesn't even want to be in, in this war. He's going to campaign against it. And the regime clearly is loving this. So why would I believe that this ends anytime soon?

[B]

Oh, I think that, look, there are a lot of ways to get at this, Chris. First of all, Trump needs more credibility with these guys than he had a couple of weeks ago.

[A]

He needs more credibility with terrorists, with

[B]

the, with the, with the group that he is trying to come to an agreement with. And if we're calling them terrorists because they are the same regime largely that they were before the war started. The reality is Trump wants an agreement. He, he was prepared to do an agreement with the Taliban. That was an agreement that was largely favorable to the Taliban at the end of his first administration, but it also helped get the US out of a war that was lasting for 20 years and, and cost over a trillion dollars. And there are a lot of Americans that would really like this war to be over.

[A]

I'm okay. I was never down with the whole we don't negotiate with terrorists because I knew we always did. I knew, I knew that was a lie. And I don't like repeating lies as a supposed principle if I can avoid it. But you also make a good point there. That should, should come up. If it is the same regime that it was before, do we have any good reason to believe the President's assertion that there has been regime change? These guys seem to be as orderly as the old guys.

[B]

We all know that that is bullshit, right? I mean, that is, that is Trump trying to move the goalposts on a war aim when he said it was never really about regime change. But don't worry because I already got rid of that regime and these guys we can actually talk to. He says 20 different things on that. The one thing he's not saying anymore is rescuing the Iranian people. Because the one thing you and I both know, Chris, is, is that the people that are going to be the most hard done by in all of this will be the ones that we are no longer concerned about, the Iranian people on the ground. Right?

[A]

Then he throws your ball and says, will you let these Iranian women go right on the eve of the talks? Because we hear the regime may put them to death for opposing, you know, some of the restrictive covenants there in their extreme form of Islamism. What do you make of that play?

[B]

Well, you'll remember that when an earlier stage of this conflict, Trump made a huge deal out of the release of an American. Right. I mean, this is what happens, right, is that, you know, Trump, Trump is looking for something that's symbolic win, that's a lot easier to make a give on than the things that you went to war for to begin with. I mean, is this about Trump? Trump said, I'm going to take the oil, like in Venezuela. He's not taking the oil. Trump said he's going to rescue the Iranian people. He's not rescuing the Iranian people. But I want to go back to your earlier question, Chris, that I haven't yet answered because it's important and it's about whether this is should be taken seriously with what they're doing and the people they're sending. So first, what they're doing. Trump has lost a lot of credibility because Iran is costing the world a lot of money. He's lost credibility because five times now he said, I'm going to blow up all your infrastructure. I'm going to end your civilization. None of this is credible. Right. But we have now seen that Trump is willing to impose a blockade on the Iranian ships coming out. He's fired on one, he's boarded a couple. And this is the same Trump. This is the biggest one 80 we've seen from Trump since the war started. Same guy that at the beginning actually took the sanctions off of Iran, allowing them to make a lot more money because he wants oil prices down. So this is Trump not saying something, showing the Iranians, I will take more pain on my oil and gas prices. I'll take more pain for the global economy and the American economy, even though I know it's hurting me at the polls and because I need leverage against you to get to this outcome. And he's talked about that in the sense that, oh, my God, It's. Oil's under 100 bucks a barrel. I thought it was me. 250, 300. He never thought that, but he said that. Right? That's all posturing with this blockade. So the first point is that Trump now going into the second round of talks has marginally more credibility and I'm going to hurt you than he did the first time around. He has Less credibility when he says, I'm going to be a tough guy. Because honestly, if you're the supreme leader and this guy's already killed your father and your mother, I don't know how much more of a tough guy he needs to necessarily be in that regard. Right. That, that credibility, that leverage is kind of gone. Then we get to, what about the people doing the negotiations? And here, Chris, I'm going to push back against you. And you know, you and I always do this with each other in only the, in only the best of intentions. Right. And, and if you had said Steve Witkoff has no experience and has no business being in this room leading this negotiation as he had no business leading Russia, Ukraine negotiations, I would completely agree with you. Now, Jared is obviously conflicted as a public servant who has a White House advisory role, but is also at the same time doing enormous amounts of business in the region with these principles. That is true. That is completely true. That is a serious problem. And no one in the administration cares about any of the conflicts of interest, which are so many scales of magnitude greater than anything that Hunter Biden was ever, ever doing with Burisma. Right. Which, which put their hair on fire. So this is not draining the swamp. This is, this is embracing. This is watering the swamp. It's expanding the swamp. It's Washington, as we always hoped we could make it. Right. But Jared is the singular person who was responsible for the biggest breakthrough that Trump had in his first term in the Middle East. John Kerry, who wanted to be president. And will tell you, Chris, that he should have been president. Most talented guy out there on foreign policy, certainly in his own head. Right. And when he was Secretary of State, he said, we can never do a deal in the Middle east until the Israel Palestinian problem is resolved. He was wrong. Jared proved him wrong. And Jared proved him wrong by developing strong relations over four years with all of the leaders in the region. And frankly, I mean, aside from Tony Blair, who has his own problems and, and conflicts of interest, I am hard pressed to find a leader in the west that has a, a more, a stronger set of personal relations with the principles in this region than Jared.

[A]

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[B]

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[A]

Switch upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month. Required intro rate first three months only, then full price plan available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full [e-mail] so I understand your case and it is based on real things. It's not a preference structure. However, here's why I don't want to accept that. I may be forced to, but I don't want to. Too many people in the region And I know you speak to many more people in the region of power and influence than I do. So you may know even more and better, which will then change my mind. The Abraham Accords could be argued as a sham because what Kushner did was go around and take everybody who wasn't the problem to begin with and promise them things that the Trump administration would do for them and much of that would be gone through, through him and that nothing happened as a result of the Abraham Accords. You know, Iran immediately scuttled them by having Hamas do what it did and the Houthis as well. And that what Kushner did that we took as the Abraham Accords was really just make himself business allies in that region that he then collected from each and every one afterwards. So that the Abraham Accords did nothing except line his pockets. And the test of them was their its own the Accords destruction by what we all knew was going to happen and what it was supposed to prevent.

[B]

A court is still in place despite October 7. This was the willingness of the UAE and Bahrain and Morocco and I think one other country was it. Was it, I can't remember the other.

[A]

Was it the Saudis?

[B]

It was not the Saudis. No, it has not been and will not be the Saudis and I'll get to that. But, but these countries, I want to say it was Sudan and I don't know if I'm wrong about that, but it was, it was the, the UAE is the most significant and, and they. This facilitated an opening of direct diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel, facilitated a massive amount of tourism and business and technology sharing and investment and infrastructure development which is with us today. And that is a very significant development for countries that had a long time said that we're never going to work with Israel until you have a two state solution. Now, part of the Abraham Accords was an effort in Bahrain to move towards a two state plan, which, you know, frankly the Palestinians never really had the governance to implement and the Israeli government as it was never really had the conviction to stand up for it after, after the, after the plan. But, but it was a very big deal. It remains in place today. Now, the reason, but the reason I mention it is simply because all the way through the four years of the Biden administration, Jared maintained and worked on those relationships in the private sector sense. Keep in mind that for the Saudis, for the Emiratis, for the Qataris, there's no meaningful difference between private and state sector.

[A]

Right.

[B]

These are family run monarchies for whom their Ownership and the government and the business all are interlinked and inoperable. So we as the United States have rule of law and standards and ethics that say that you're not supposed to be doing this business if you are a public servant of the United States. The Gulf states do not have that. And so that does not, under that reality, does not undermine Jared's ability to get these leaders to. Yes, these leaders who have been in place for many years and will be in place for decades. And now what they're trying to do is, is get, is negotiate. And another point I would make again with Jared in the background, Trump has had more success on Gaza than Biden. This reality, I mean, it was Trump that actually got the hostages out of Gaza.

[A]

Well, Biden got a big chunk of hostages early on also. He actually got more.

[B]

Yes, the remaining ones that did that led to the phase one peace deal. Right. It was, it was Trump and Jared that organized in the, the, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, a summit of all of the core players that agreed to the 17 point plan that would, that created that support and then got a Security Council resolution at the UN that the Russians and Chinese did not veto with the support of all those countries that got you the phase one peace deal. And this is nowhere close to what we need for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. But it is more than Biden was able to do. And I've spoken with senior Biden officials on this issue and they, they give Trump credit for that.

[A]

I know, but you know what? Here's my, here's my twisted thinking on it. Okay? Yeah, maybe the reason that Biden, even Kerry couldn't do it was because they weren't willing to do what the Trump administration is, which is do business with them in ways that violate our laws and standards, to ingratiate yourself and kind of let them see that you're just like them and they didn't do that. Maybe if Biden had had Hunter Biden go and work for the UAE and work for Bahrain and get paid on the side, they would have done a deal with them the way they'll work with Kushner. Because it's not that they respect the guy as anything other than a conduit to access to the Trump administration. And we keep seeing that again and again. Why did they just offer a lifeline, a line of credit from the United States to the uae? These guys don't need any kind of financial security from us. You know what I mean? Why do you think by Trump's Sons are getting funded by the UAE on their crypto thing. You know what I mean? Why is Kushner getting billions from their fund? Maybe that's why they got the deal.

[B]

The insider trading, the money that's being made front running, these announcements by Trump should all be investigated. They're likely illegal. The CFTC is already looking into some of them. We will probably get information around exactly what happened. The idea that these governments are very happy to put cash into the pockets of Trump and family and friends and insiders to get policy outcomes they like is antithetical to what rule of law stands for and antithetical to what Trump ran on.

[A]

I mean, would you be shocked to find out that Tucker Carlson is getting a ton of money and gifts from the region?

[B]

Oh, no, no, not at all. I mean, there's certainly been lots of smoke around that. I haven't seen anything that implies hard evidence, but I wouldn't be shocked because, you know, so much of what he has been talking about seems aligned with that. And it's hard to explain some of that sudden, sudden Jesus finding on Tucker's part just by. By nature of deathbed conversion.

[A]

You don't think that he's two steps ahead, not because he's a genius, just because it's somewhat obvious that the next wave of populist furor in America is going to be anti maga. Okay. Trump is going to wind up being, we know how our politics works. He's going to wind up being a focal point of absolute and abject animus. And that's why Tucker Carlson just said, you know, the same reason that Jared Kushner is in the position he's in. You know, Tucker Carlson just said, I'll be tormented forever for misleading people about Donald Trump. I should have never done it. Just like he did about the war, just like he did about the election. I should have never said what I said about Dominion. I shouldn't have done it. When the lawyers, when the lawyers, people do believe them to the tune of millions and millions of streams. I know.

[B]

So painful, Chris. It's so.

[A]

But I'm just saying it's all the mistake that people make. Not you, because you're a genius, but the mistake that people like me make is I think too much. I think, well, it can't be that. It's got to be something else. There's got to be some kind of strategy. It's kind of. No. No strategy. It is exactly what you think on its face. Why is he sending J.D. vance? He doesn't want to go he doesn't know that there's going to be a deal. That's why. And if he's sure there's going to be a deal, Trump will be there, Not. Not Vance or anybody else. Why is it Kushner? Because he's getting paid.

[B]

Believe it or not, the reason he sent JD the first time is because the Iranians actually demanded it, and they shouldn't be in a position to do that now.

[A]

I agree with you.

[B]

They know. Look, one of the big disadvantages the Americans have in this negotiation is that for all of our political dysfunction, we still do have a pretty free media environment. So. Yes, in other words, there is reporting that happens.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Of what is going on inside the Trump White House. You got. People like to talk and they talk and they're anonymous. That is not happening with the Supreme Leader in the irgc.

[A]

It will not happen.

[B]

So. Not if you don't know what their red lines are. They have a pretty good sense of how much pressure Trump thinks he's under and how much he needs to get to a deal soon or else he already. He got. He went on primetime and promised the American people this war would only go on for another two or three weeks. That, of course, is leverage for the Iranians. There's no question.

[A]

Well, look, they have to be loving this. They have never been this relevant since they came into power, okay? Since. Since that mock revolution that brought them in as a bunch of insurgents to, you know, as a non organic entity to Iranian and Persian culture. They haven't been as relevant as they are right now. So of course they don't want it to end. Of course Israel doesn't want it to end. This is their free pass to pound the people that they see as existential threats. So the only people who want it to end are the Americans, because we didn't want to be there in the first place. We still don't understand why we went there. And here we are.

[B]

So, Chris, there are at least 150 Iranian leaders that I think would have liked it to be over, since they're dead now. Right. Including the Supreme Leader. And I think that the Iranians, they've had enormous hits to their energy infrastructure. Worse than the Gulf states have. They've got big problems with their industrial capabilities. Their economy was in the shitter before this war started. It is now much worse, even though they've been able to.

[A]

But are any of those operative metrics for them? They don't have to worry about getting elected. They don't care about their own people.

[B]

They're not, certainly do not. But they have to worry about moving the Capitol if they don't have water anymore, which is something they were already under pressure to do. They have to worry about a group of people in a country of over 90 million that have very different alignments and allegiances. You know, whether it's the Baluc or the Azeris or the Kurds. I mean, much of this country regionally is, is not aligned with this theocracy in this authoritarian regime. Look, I don't pretend that they are only motivated by economic growth and survival. I don't. But, but I think that there are a lot of Iranian leaders that would really like this war to now be over. And they would like. But they want to continue to have control over the strait. They want to continue to be able to toll ships. They don't want the Americans to start hitting them again. They would, they would rather not. The Israelis absolutely still want the strikes. And on Lebanon, by the way, since Hezbollah still has not been disarmed and there are, there are Gulf states now, definitely the Emiratis, probably Bahrain, depending on what, who you talk to the Saudis, too, that they didn't want the war to begin with, but now that the war has happened, they don't. They're very uncomfortable with leaving the Iranians in this position.

[A]

Yeah. Because they know they're going to pay.

[B]

That's a lot of players, a lot of players that feel very differently. So what, what I think is going to happen again, kind of, given your framework, Chris, is that Trump is the one that most needs to announce a win is that, and this is why Vance isn't on the plane yet. My bet, if I were betting this, I would say he will get on that plane soon. You know, within a day or so. He will go there. Trump will make a big announcement and the markets will rally on that briefly and there will be a flurry of insider trading right beforehand. And, and then there will be lots of ways that that deal will not actually be implemented because number one, the announced deal that Trump makes will, will not be the one that the Iranians thought they actually agreed to because he'll exaggerate, which makes it harder. Number two, the Iranians in Tehran and the IRGC and the Supreme Leader are not as interested as implement in implementing a deal and as those that are negotiating with Vance in Islamabad. Number three, as it takes time to actually implement this deal and it looks like it's not going so well, the Israelis could very easily engage in strikes again in the region. And in fact Just in the last couple of hours, I saw that there has been a Hezbollah, the first drone fight in Israel since the cease fire went into effect. That could easily. That kind of thing could lead to this blowing up again. And then you've got the Houthis, the Iranians, the militias in Iraq that have, have been relatively quiet in the case of the Houthis, less so in the case of Iraq. That could also undermine. So, I mean, I think despite the fact that we are prepared for. Yes, this week, the likelihood that you and I are gonna get back together again a few weeks from now or a couple months from now and talk about how this still hasn't actually created a breakthrough ceasefire. Energy prices are still high, the global economy is taking a hit, and the Iranians are still disrupting the strait. I think that's extremely likely.

[A]

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[B]

Why?

[A]

Because they're high quality in terms of flavor, in terms of duration, in terms of delivery. And I know people who use nicotine and it helps them with their focus, it helps them not vape, it helps them not do other things to get nicotine. And I think that's important. And again, is this the best choice? Well, it's about whether or not it's the right choice for you. And I would rather go with something that limits my exposure, that is done with quality and done in the best way. Lucy is the only pouch that delivers long lasting, on demand flavor, which is a big thing with a lot of these. A lot of them taste terrible. This one, not so much. Get 20% off your first order when you buy [e-mail]. cCP is the forward slash. Promo code is CCP for the Chris Cuomo Project. If you don't want to wait, check out their store locator and find Lucy dear you and grab it today, okay? And here comes the fine print. Lucy products are for adults, of course. You got to be legal age, and every customer's got to be age verified. And the product does contain nicotine. And nicotine is an addictive chemical. So I'm not telling you to get addicted. I'm telling you that if this is something you use, you want to argue abuse, you should do it the best way you can. And Lucy is worth looking at. The President, I believe, has stolen defeat out of the jaws of potential victory in the midterms. This could have been a midterm where he had overwhelmed on a domestic agenda and that he would be able to stave off the kind of attrition we often see in a midterm. I believe this move has ruined that opportunity for him. And I think for good reason, which is why my hat says what it says. Fix America first is what absolutely. The dominant mentality. And it should be, it should be in, in this country. But here is my. In contrast to your sane and rational roadmap, a couple of steps ahead. Here's my crazy think. Okay. Okay, here's how it ends. 60 days. 60 days is the off ramp for Trump. He doesn't, he doesn't see this. He never saw it. He doesn't want to see it. But 60 days, and here's why. The War Powers Resolution is very clear. 60 days, military automatically ends unless they declare war or they extend. Now, do they need the president to declare war? No. Do it is not a law. That way. He can't veto a declaration of war. Will they declare war? No. Will they extend? Maybe. But if he were smart, here's what he would do. Okay? Go to his guys and say, I'm gonna come and say, I think I should pound them into fine dust. Throw the regime out and save all the people. That's what I think we should do. But I'm a law and order guy and I gotta give it to you because the law is there and I respect this constitution in a way nobody else ever has. That's why I hug the flag. So I give it to you. And then they vote no. And he decides not to veto it. Why? Because I want to respect Congress. Sure. And I know how fraught it is and I don't want to put extra pressure on them to have to override my veto. So I'll respect their wishes. And just like that, it's over. Not because there's a deal anybody's going to like, but they were all going to lie about the deal anyway. And the regime was, would never keep the deal. So the deal is, is nonsense. It doesn't matter. So you're going to leave. You beat them up. You'll say it's a win because you killed all these people and you crushed this and you bombed that and you ruined this and you did that, and we'll move on. That is the best way. And I believe the most likely way, as crazy as what I just said, is based on where things stand today.

[B]

I don't disagree with that at all, Chris. I just think he would have been much better off if he had done exactly the same thing, like five weeks ago. Right. And he's already set it up rhetorically. He already said, well, I already changed the regime. We don't have to worry about that.

[A]

Here's what I know. Ian Bremmer is a thinker before he is a speaker. Okay? He wants to know. His currency is the integrity of the insight. Can't look stupid, can't have his sources go bad on him, can't be cockamamie. Trump is the mirror image of Ian Bremmer. Say first. Say first because it sounds good right now. Just say it and then find a way to make it true.

[B]

Say it.

[A]

Find a way to make it true if you have to. Otherwise, just keep saying it's true. Yeah. No, no. The Iranians agreed. They want Vance. They love him. They love him. They love Vance. Oh, really? Because what I'm told by one of Vance's main people is they didn't want Rubio. They don't know Vance. They don't know why they shouldn't like Vance, which they shouldn't, because he's kind of close to a Christian zealot, but they didn't want Rubio. Why? Because Rubio is a real one. That's why. And they thought this guy was them asking for someone else and getting it. And they didn't expect it, but they got it. But even if I'm wrong in that, which I'd be very surprised by, by the way, Trump's thing is shoot, aim. That's what it is. And that's what he's doing here. It's like the equivalent of my teenage son.

[B]

He can do that. And I've certainly, Lord knows, I've heard from Republicans that are not prepared to actually vote in favor of an extension for him. Many. But the reality is that he's gonna lose the midterms on this either way because he can no longer get the American economy restarted without these affordability problems. This guy has been president now two different terms. He's never been responsible for a downturn until now. He now has an economic downturn that's going to go right through November, and he is. There is no one responsible for it other than Trump, and he is going to own that in the midterms.

[A]

He'll deal with that piece. But do not underestimate his ability to manipulate narrative. Not with the truth, but look at it. I mean, again, Ian, I. I've come around to this way of thinking where I realize I can't beat the game. I can't even really expose the game. I can't. People don't want to see it. Too many are invested in playing it. Like, I know what Tucker Carlson is doing. I know what Megan Kelly is doing. I know what Candace Owens is doing. I know. I know what Don Lemon is doing. I get it. I get it. And these are very savvy plays of how to make advantage in this environment. I don't think they have any integrity attached to them beyond that. But I'm not some. I'm not one to judge that either. But I'll tell you this, John TH does not agree with the existential nature of our conclusions here. John Thomas believes that he can be an architect of a shocking mild outcome in the midterms, given what Trump is doing, in part by running away from this war, saying, we ended it, separating from Trump just enough for him to not come after him, and to say, Trump got us into it, we got us out of it, because we're for you and we're fighting for America first. That's who we are. We're the real ones. He's a little cheeky. That's his play. That's why Thune has been so quiet on this Save America act, which I didn't understand. I didn't see that. I didn't see that as concordant with what I'm saying. When. So when I was told that, I said, no, no, no, no, he needs the Save America act, because that's part of that whole agenda. And he's sleeping on that. I don't know why. And the guy said, yeah, well, I'm telling you why right now. And I'm the one who deals with his office. And they're sleeping on it because it's not seen. It's seen as a distraction. And that vote, they already have the. It's illegals voting. They already have that vote. And it's. This isn't doing anything for me is the vote that they want. And he's quiet on it because he does not want to burn his currency on that bill. He wants to burn his currency on a health care bill, not a massive one. A small sense to Me, but that's what he wants.

[B]

My focus here, Chris, is, I mean, again, they're going to play the hand that they have and they'll play it as well as they possibly can. And this is, they are politicians. They, that, that is their capacity, that is their skill set. What I'm saying is that even if Trump is able to find a way to embrace and sell a new victory with new war goals, the knock on implications of this economically for the US, for the world, for American top allies, for US relations globally, for the future of the Gulf with the gcc, the Gulf Cooperation Council falling apart, the, the Saudis and the Emiratis starting to fight, UAE with the Israelis, the Saudis with Pakistan. These things are going to be with us, not just for a few more months, but this is a legacy, a reality. Whether or not how voters respond to it from my perspective, is less important than the impact it has for the world. Right. I mean, perception is one thing. It's very hard to perceive a different gas price,

[A]

but we hear it all the time. First of all, do not underestimate. I get that, you know, this is just not how you operate, but don't underestimate the power of lying. Okay? They just lie. They just say gas prices are lower now. And I know it's Orwellian, but, you know, Orwell got his idea, you know, from a certain understanding of humanity and human behavior and a little precocious, not that much. I, I think that Orwell would blush at what's actually happening today. Oh yeah. I don't even think House of Cards would be successful if it started right now. People would be like, why is this so unbelievable? You see, we push someone in front of a train. Really? Doesn't everybody do that? So they'll lie, they'll blame like they do gas prices. Wait, why are my gas prices so high? Your state. Your state is. Why? Because they won't let us drill, that's why. Because of regulations. That's why. That's why they're high. Don't underestimate the ability to lie. The Democrats aren't terrible liars, but they're not as good as this guy. They are not ready to go fabrication for fabrication with the, with the Trump administration. I mean, you know, we learn this lesson again and again. And frankly, I'm okay with the Democrats taking the losses they take. If there's a chance that it resurrects the own in the, the integrity of what the core of that party is, I'd be okay with the trade off of losing for a couple of cycles to wind up being kind of evolve into something that is better than anything that we had had before. So we'll see what they do with this. But the midterm agenda is still very much in play in terms of the outcome. And I know it shouldn't be, and I know Nate Silver and everybody will see it differently, but I see it the same way I do of the artifice involved in Iran. This has to end. And once you accept that that Trump decides has to end, he has no problem lying about that end, Ian, in a way that Biden never could. He wasn't clever enough. Obama never would.

[B]

I'm just saying he should have done that five weeks ago because the costs and the consequences would have been so much lower for him and for the

[A]

country he was being told they will fold.

[B]

Okay, but it was fairly clear a while back that that was not actually where we were going to you.

[A]

Yes, which is why my point was from the beginning. Hold on a second. Why are you sending these guys to negotiate? And again, I'll accept your analysis with Jared. I believe the success was motivated by something else. But it doesn't matter. He had success with the Abraham Accords. It is not fair for me on that basis to dismiss all competency when there was an accord that was a demonstrable benefit to quieting the region at least vis a vis the UAE and Israel. Okay, you're right. I'm wrong. You're right. My argument is the reason he was successful is something much more dark than we understand than the benefit to Israel and the UAE and whatever economic situation has evolved since. But be that as it may, what you do is you call Ian Bremmer. What you do is say, Look, I know G0. I know what you're doing. I get it. Could really kind of use you on this one. You don't have to necessarily represent America, but, you know, you are a real one. You know, you're an American, Ian, and we want you at the table and help us with this. We got like five of you guys who are just top notch guys who are respected in the region and we want you to help us get this one done. That's what Trump would do. That is not what he did here. Why that part I can't answer for you. Yeah, I can't answer.

[B]

I don't think they need me. I think that there were plenty of people internally that if Trump were interested in expertise that he actually has access to in the administration, they could have gotten this right. He chose not to. He chose not to because he was so successful in Venezuela that he was riding a sugar high. He chose not to because his previous experience in Iran is, I don't need to worry about the what if, because once I beat them up, they talk big, but they'll never do anything to me. I've already beaten them up twice and they've done nothing. And also because the people around him are actually blowing smoke up his ass. Right, right. And they're not the expertise that they have. Okay, Hagsett doesn't have expertise, but some of them really do. And they've done the scenario planning and they weren't giving him. We saw this even with the head of the Joint Chiefs, that in the conversations internally, you know, if you were Trump, you would not feel that this was going to be a disaster and you should have. So I think for all of those reasons, I understand why this guy in particular believed that it was going to all be, you know, people welcoming us with flowers. But still, within a week, maybe two, max, anyone could understand that all of that was wrong. All of it was wrong. And yet here we are almost two months in, and the damage is going to be so much greater. This episode sponsored by Maximus Tribe. You train, you track, you eat right, but if you're over 40, you've felt it. The results don't match the effort anymore. That's not willpower, it's biology. Hormones drop, metabolism slows, your body stops responding the way it used to. Maximus is the online clinic that reverses your decline with prescription performance medicines, GLP1s, testosterone and peptides that reduce belly fat, restore energy and boost recovery. Over 50,000 high performers have already broken through their plateaus. If you're ready to turn your hard work into measurable results, go to maximustribe.com that's maximus tribe.com

[A]

seeing it the way you do, with the rationality that you bring to it, what is your best sense of whether this ends and if so, what that looks like?

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I, I do think that you're right, Chris, that he's going to find a way. And whether it's because of the, the War Powers act and the unwillingness to declare war, or whether it's because he sells, he oversells an agreement as his, you know, 10th war that he's ended. He's very proud of the Lebanon Israel war that he just ended, by the way, the, the ten day cease fire that could fall apart in a moment, I think that they're going to make that announcement. And after that announcement is made, Trump will do his damnedest to get the hell out of Dodge. I do think that that's true. And then he's going to leave the region to work out the ballistic missile issue. He's going to leave the region to work out the, how you figure out Iran's support for proxies, that maybe they'll get some movement on the, getting the enriched uranium out. That would, that would be a significant piece of progress and they have done a lot of damage to Iran's conventional military capabilities. But the reality is that even in the best case scenario there, Trump is selling a win. But you're going to have a strait that countries are going to have to find a way to deal with the Iranians to get through the strait. And Trump doesn't care as much because he says, well, we don't. It's not our ships going through the strait, but it's a global economy. So again, Chris, I will cede to you, Trump will be a master at changing the rules and saying he won and it's awesome and his people, a lot of them will support him. But let's leave aside how unpopular this is with independents, how unpopular it is with Dems. He could never get. The country's really divided. They don't move that much anyway. I'm simply trying to help the audience here understand that the long term consequences for the US Economy, for the global economy, things like medical supplies, right. IVs. Right. I mean car parts, packaging, consumer packaging. I am seeing like shortages of that stuff all over the world. We're going to have European airlines that are going to start grounding their flights because they don't have jet fuel. That is coming before the strait is reopened. Even if Trump says we won and it's all good, you're going to have semiconductors that won't be produced because there's no helium going to South Korea and Taiwan by June and it's all backed up and, and you can't. And there's not more that's being produced at this point. These are real challenges that we're going to be working through. It's like the pandemic. I mean, this is going to be several years before you actually work through all of the damage. The, the LNG facility in Qatar. I mean, that's a five year fix with tens of billions of dollars that the Iranians one hit. And, and if, if, God forbid, you and I are wrong and this war does restart. Because let's recognize that as much as Trump wants an off ramp, when you're fighting like this, the potential for the war to restart is real. That happens. The Iranians have the military capability to take out the desalination plants in the Gulf. And then you've got millions of refugees from some of the wealthiest countries in the world. And we are not ready for this. Right. So again, I'm. I think that you're right, Chris, about all the domestic politics and how Trump is figuring this out. That's not my expertise. I'm talking to you about where this is going.

[A]

Oh, I'm with you. But I got to tell you, if he were listening to you right now, he might have a smile on his face because everything you just described is a them problem in his mind. Yeah. And I'll say to my people, yeah, this is them. They suck. They need us. Shouldn't have shit on us. Should have given me what I wanted. Should have helped me with the regime a little sooner. Now you'll see. Oh, and you, NATO, you too. I don't think I forgot about you bastards. And by the way, when this bleeds into Europe and it's going to before it bleeds in here, come to me and ask for help and see what happens. And I don't know that this isn't absurd enough. I do think there's a legit chance that part of his exit from Iran is. Is saying, on the way home, I'm going to kick out the rest of the Castro regime on the way home, I'm going to send a part of the fleet to Cuba on the way home. And I know that's technically not on the way, but I'm doing it. I want to lose.

[B]

I'll take the under on that because I don't know what the political alternative is in Cuba. And I think Marco understands that.

[A]

I don't mind going to Cuba. I don't enjoy it the way people who haven't been there as often romanticize it, but I would not be surprised on the level of thinking that comes out of that place.

[B]

But you got to know, I mean, Chris, the other group of people that I just want to mention briefly, and they're the CEOs in America, the people that make the business work. These are people that privately are very unhappy with Trump. These are people that are taking it on the chin, first because of the tariffs and now because of the war and the stuff that you are talking about. I mean, Trump saying we don't appreciate the Europeans. Where do you think the Europeans are going to buy their weapons from going forward? All going to be from European firms. They're not going to buy them from the American military companies anymore. The job losses that will come from all of this long term is really significant. So if you want to fix America, you and I need to be at least talking about that stuff 100%.

[A]

100%. Here's my one pushback to remember the common enemy. And I'm not saying that this is right, wrong, good, bad, because I'm always shy on extremes. And it's why the binary nature of our politics and our partisanship I see as counterproductive. But I'll tell you who the common enemy is going to be. The exact people you just named. The last people he's going to cater to between now and the midterms are the corporations. No way. Because everybody hates them. Everybody's pointing a finger at the rich right now. The oligarchs, the no kings, whatever you want to call them. Our health care problems are. Because if I have a handful of guys, it's really.

[B]

Trump has a hard time making that credible with the billions and billions that he's making. He just, he's given up on the corruption card, he's given up on the common man card. He is. I could make a very strong argument, Chris, that Trump already knows the midterms are sunk and he watches the polls as closely as we do and that he's decided that what he needs to do is just make as much money just going to monetize for the rest of his presidency is worth 5 billion now it's going to make it 50. And then all the Republicans that are trying to run have to run away from Trumpism pretty bad because like Trump is seen as kleptocrat number one, enriching everyone around him and the common man

[A]

gets shat on it is the biggest rejection of premise I've ever seen in American politics. I have never seen anything. And I'll give Maga that it is a movement. And by the way, I think that it is still a movement and I think that it's going to be bigger, angrier and more insistent than ever. It's just going to be owned by the left, but we'll see where that goes. But it is the first time that something that has putatively have been about something has become the opposite of that.

[B]

The opposite.

[A]

I've never seen that before. And here we are. And we'll see where it goes.

[B]

Epstein too. Whole damn thing.

[A]

Yeah. Ian Bremmer, you are always value added. Thank you for helping my audience. Thank you for helping me as always.

[B]

Good to see you, Chris. Take it easy, man.

[A]

Obviously, Ian Bremmer is worldly, knowledgeable and insightful. What should be interesting to you is that there are absolutely hard realities here that are being completely ignored by our political state of play. It is madness with no method behind it except the most basic appetites and ego and avarice and arrogance. How frightening is that? Never has America's concern, America's weakness, America's unseemly side been as naked to the world as it is right now. If you believe that people are looking at us and saying, wow, that's where I want to be. That's who I want to be. That's how I want to be, you are crazy. Okay, See where we are for what it is. See the opportunity in it. Don't become consumed with how horrible it is, but realize that that's why there's so much opportunity for different and better right now in our politics at home. Because how can we do worse than this? I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you for subscribing and following here and subscribe. Thank you for getting your gear. Be a critical thinker. Wear it. Put it in people's faces. Say, hey, I want to fix America first. And when people say, oh, yeah, me too, Bill. Whoa, where you been? Where you been, brother sister? Where you been? You see what I'm saying? Wear your independence. Put it in their face as a brand and as an ambition, because we need to get back to right and wrong instead of right and left. That's coming out as a T shirt. I'll see you on SiriusXM in the morning, 7 to 9. I'll see you at News Nation 8 to 9 at night. And the podcast is always here for you, my brothers and sisters. I got some new offerings coming your way, so get over to the subscription page on YouTube. There's a lot of options and they're going to get more and better. Let's get after it. Looking for the best place to shop this Mother's Day? Go with the brand. That makes it easy to send something thoughtful to everyone on your list. 1-800-flowers.com right now at 1-800-flowers. Order one dozen roses and get another dozen free. More flowers mean more smiles, all backed by the quality, attention to detail and trusted delivery experience that make 1-800-flowers my top choice. To send something beautiful mom will love. Make Mom's Day at 1-800flowers, com Spotify. That's 1-800flowers, com Spotify.