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If you want to know who's going to win the midterms, you have to determine who's going to win the shutdown. And I think I know, but I have an inside scoop. Chris Cuomo here. Welcome to the Chris Cuomo Project. Why? Let's question the premise. Why is the shutdown relevant to the midterms? Now, I would see that, and you probably agree that's a little bit of a duh. This is one of the major calamities that we've seen. If, if you look at the first Trump administration, that 30 some odd day shutdown certainly loomed large in people's minds when Trump got cleaned in the first set of midterms. Why? Because no matter how cynical everybody is, no matter how much division is forced on us, and I do believe that because I'm different, right? And I am disruptive of the norm, that we're all supposed to think everybody hates each other. I just, I don't believe it. I think it's exaggerated because people get PA to exaggerate it. The algorithms, the monetizers, the influencers, you know, I think that's how they're getting paid. So that's what they're selling. However, shutdowns matter, why? There is an expectation that you will do something. Cuz you promised me to do something. And I think the idea of, yeah, what I promised you I would do is resist. I will oppose. I don't know that it gets it done. Certainly for Democrats. Okay, so I have enlisted our friends at Kelshi because they are the largest US Prediction market. Now remember, these are real money markets, right? People who are trading on what they think will happen. And I honestly, pun intended, think there's real currency in that. For our analysis, they've turned out to be pretty accurate. Why? Because money's on the line, that's why. And I think they're really right in there with the odds making the bookmaking that I've seen in sports to be Honest. I mean, their percentages are pretty solid. So I believe they are a better way to gauge sentiment than just some preference poll where it's all about how they ask and who they ask and when they ask. You know, this is people who are willing to step up and put money on it. I think there's value in that. Again, pun intended. So the first question for me is to look at. So you've got the shutdown, you've got midterms, which is House and Senate. All right, so we'll look at all of them. First, you have the shutdown itself. Now, I believe that looking at the belief about the duration of the shutdown is interesting because. Why? Well, you're gonna set it again, so why? There's several reasons why I think this is a good one. How long will the government shutdown last? Okay. The amount of time that it's gonna last has been going up. Okay. Why? Because it doesn't seem like there's a lot of energy in fixing it. Because our politics has become based on problems and who is to blame and what is. Versus being known as someone who can solve, who can fix, who can do problems work better in our politics right now than solving them. So there is a consistency in that. Even though we're like, you know, weeks in or whatever, we had one that was over 30 days in the first Trump term. So that's not a bad baseline. And that's why, you see, right now, the forecast is up around 45 days. Why? Because it's a biblical number? No, because, you know, what happened the last time, and it seems like it's worse this time. Even though, I must say, I must say, last time was about a really controversial issue, which was immigration. That was the first shutdown. Right, the money for the wall, which, remember, Trump loves to tell you and the Republicans and the MAGA guys love to tell you that they won that shutdown. They didn't get the money for the wall. They didn't get the money for the wall. And by the way, I was happy about that. Why you. You like open borders? That's stupid. Why? Because I like real change. And we were never a wall away from safety. The reason that the southern border is more secure now than during the Biden administration is choice not a function of construction. It's not because there's a wall that's keeping them out. Is that part of it? Yeah, but it's the lesser part of it. The real part of it is what? Enforcement. Enforcement. They haven't even changed the rules, by the way. Why? Because Congress doesn't want to solve the problem. And a president can't create the rules. They can only enforce the rules. And they are enfor. And that takes us into ICE and all that drama. Right. Which I believe is unnecessary. And you didn't see it during the Obama administration, even though they were deporting a lot more people. Of course they were doing it at the border, but it was also about how it was being explained. Right. This is punitive, this is otherizing. There's a xenophobic aspect to this. And as I said on my show, and I'll say it again, I don't believe they're just cutting fat. They're not just catching the criminals, the bad hombres that the president tells us, a representative in our immigrant community. I think they're cutting muscle. I think they're cutting people who entered the country the wrong way but have done everything right since then, who are needed in their communities and valued in their communities. And that's why communities are pissed off. I don't think they're pissed off because they want crime. I don't believe that. I think that's. It's stupid and it's self destructive. I don't think that's what it is. I think it's about how this is being done and what they believe this country is about, which is fundamentally that we give people a chance here, even if they don't completely deserve it. So how is that reflected in the calcium markets? All right. Well, they think it's gonna go more than 39 days. Do I think they're right? I'm taking no on that. Why? Because I'm an optimist and I have hope that these guys see that it's hurting them. You gotta think about salary cycles and about the expansion of the pain. Okay. And the more the pain expands, the more the politicians, I think will be blamed for that pain. And they'll see that it's kind of netting to neutral between Democrats and Republicans in the kind of we hate all of. And the more that this gets cast as a projection, the way I am onto the midterms, I think that that will be a catalyst that'll keep it from going as long as is suggested in this market. So my money would be on no. Now, am I good at political analysis? Yes. Am I a good gambler? No. And they are very different things. I can explain to you why we are where we are. I can explain how we got here, but where we're going to go, I don't know. I'm not great at it. That's why I'm fascinated by this. Okay, so here's the proposition. If the ongoing federal government shutdown starting October 1st. I agree. Lasts for above 40 days and they time it out for you, then the market resolves to yes, the outcome will be verified from the US Office of Personal Management. I also think that's kind of cool too, that they give you the parameter of what will decide it. Because some of this stuff could be soft in terms of if you're betting on who's gonna win, then, duh, obviously you're gonna have an outcome. But if you're betting, like if people are making money off, do you think the economy is gonna be higher or lower than it is right now? Well, by what metric? You know what I mean? So it's good that they give you the parameters. That's a smart part of this market. And I also like, if you look at Kalshi, how they kind of give you little tips about here's what other people are saying and why, and here's comments and here's what people. And also that how long will the government shut down last more than 60 days? The odds are at 21%. The cost is $5.40. The value right now is 486. See, now that's really interesting. So you can make money one of two ways, which is one, there's a market and there's a submarket. So there's the market of how long is it gonna be? And you're betting on it. Right? That's a straight line bet. Then you have the submarket bet, which is if you're getting close to being right on a bet, somebody may wanna buy that bet from you. There is a value in that that this could. So if you buy low, as it starts to trend high, someone may come in and take it. Right now that particular trade is trading at a discount. I think it should be at a steeper discount than that. But what do I know? All right, so that is on the issue of how long will the shutdown go, which is the precursor for me to understanding the midterms. Why? Okay, my theory on the midterms is yes, presidential administrations are set up to take a loss in the first cycle of midterms. Traditionally there are very few who have not. Now, second term president versus first term president changes that a little bit. But the tendency is still that in the first term there's an adjustment. Why? Because it's binary. And part of that is going to be pendular swings back and forth. And I guess as a culture, we somehow believe that that is how we balance. I don't see it that way, but I think maybe that is how it is seen. All right, so if we look at the House and we go to Calshi for where that smart money is on it, why are they saying the Democrats 58, 42. Well, I think a big part of it is the history, the historical value of how it's usually gone in the past. But it, this is, look, this is close for a reason, right? 5,000, 842, you could say that's not that close. Well, it's, it's, it's close enough for Republicans to be at 42% chance of winning the House. Why? Because our politics have gotten so extreme. Right. That you never know what's going to wind up being dispositive. And what, what should be dispositive? The economy should be dispositive. Takes us back to the shutdown. If the economy is dispositive while the economy's seen as how. Well, it ain't gonna be Wall Street. Okay, well, how's it gonna be seen? I think it's gonna be the pocketbook economy. I think it's gonna be prices. And the tariffs are gonna be the big risk factor for Trump. Why? Because while they were a flex to his base of being tough on people who have not been good to us. That's the premise. I'm not saying I agree with it, but that you did us dirty. Now I'm doing you dirty. Okay. Revenge, basically. Right. I'm gonna get us better deals if he doesn't get you better deals. And remember, this is not something he can bullshit you on. Why? Because the truth is gonna be in the prices. The truth is gonna be on the prices. And there's gonna be so much economic indicia of what the impact of the tariffs have been that even though usually in economic analysis it's always. Well, you could look at it this way, you can look at it that way. You can look. Milk is milk, gas is gas, eggs are eggs, mortgages are mortgages, et cetera, et cetera. And as you look at these things, you will be able to decide for yourself which is good if you're a critical thinker. So Democrats have the edge. Why? Because it's the first midterm cycle in a presidential election where a Republican is in there and usually there is reaction, formation. But what's the X factor here? The tariffs. For me, the tariffs. Which is why, what? They never talk about tariffs. And the Democrats Keep taking the bait and being distracted by all this other shit that's going on, the lawfare and the foreign affairs and all these little side cultural issues with ice and all that. And the democracy stuff and the violence that. They don't talk about tariffs either. Support comes from Beam. We have to find ways to deal with what is burning us out. Working so hard all the time. Home isn't even safe anymore, right? Everybody's working when they're home as long as they have their phone. So what do we need to do? We need to find a way to rest. Beams Dream Powder. Okay. Cuomo family, tested and approved. Three generations are now using it. It is a natural sleep blend, nothing crazy. It's not a drug. You don't wake up like, oh, did I just get off the red eye? With science backed ingredients. Okay. Reishi, magnesium, L theanine, apigenin, melatonin. In the right combinations, in the right amounts. Dream helps you have restful sleep. How do I know? Because I use it. And since I've started using it and my family started using it, I have that surprise feeling more often. What is that? Oh, I had a good sleep. I feel rested. Okay. And I'm not drinking coffee like it was my life's blood the same way. And I'm not the only one. Beam's Dream powder has improved 17 and a half million nights of sleep for people all across the country. For a limited time, BEME is giving my listeners their best offer yet, up to 40% off. So with my discount code Cuomo, you can't forget that you can get their best selling Dream powder for just 39 bucks. Go to shopbeam.com cuomo and use the code Cuomo at checkout. You will get up to 40% off. Now. That's it. Another big indicator of the economy is healthcare. Why? It's a huge nut. Huge nut. After your primary living expense, rent or mortgage, it's healthcare. So where is the pricing on that? Do tariffs affect that? Not in the same way. It's collateral to that market. Why? You know, that's a deep discussion. Why? Because health insurance is not just an industry that is about providing you care and how much they have to spend, spend on it versus how much they get paid. Health insurance is also about reinsurance and all of this securitization and all these other funny money games that they allow that industry to play where their reliance on borrowing and lending and vigs in those spaces will affect their own, their bottom line. So, and then, well, how does their bottom line affect yours? Well, in terms of what their pricing structure is. So it's complicated. But what's simple that the Democrats right now in this shutdown, I believe are fighting the right fight. Now they're allowing it to get twisted. There are many of you who will say, fighting the right fight, giving free health care to illegals. I hate that term, but it is the term that's being used. And I'm just trying to pass along a vernacular, but I should also try to be something better. So is it about giving free health care to undocumented immigrants? Now, my answer to that is not really. It should just be a straight no. Why? Subsidies for Medicaid, which was ignored in the big beautiful bill that's now called the middle class tax bill, or whatever the fuck it's called, when that was not a middle class tax cut. Why not? Middle class people got a tax cut. Not as much of the benefit went to you as went to the top. So why would it be named after you? You're being exploited. You're being used. Okay? And you should be aware of that and decide how to feel about it. So they didn't deal with healthcare, but now they're kind of using healthcare cuts to pay for that. Why? Because they're gonna lose revenue, so they're not gonna have as much money to spend. That's what a tax cut is. Right? So how do you feel about that? What does that mean to you? I believe that's very fertile ground for the Democrats and goes to this economic dynamic of better off. Right? So what do they do? They flip it. And you want to spend precious money on people who are not here illegally because you are crazy. Right? That's the pushback. So what is the rub on this that I think Democrats are not getting right yet. They are doing well or better at pressing what this is about. They are not doing as well at insisting on what it is not not about. Federal money can't go to health care for undocumented immigrants by law. So how is this an issue? Because two ways. One, states get reimbursed for what they spend with their money on that population for emergency care that is needed, because that is also a law in all these states that you have to provide emergency care. You can't let someone die when they come to your er. Okay? So the federal government has been reimbursing and that rate had gone up because of COVID So now they want to bring it back down. Secondly, they also, especially like a state like California, played with funny money on this, where they started charging a new tax to providers that they actually paid them back for and then asked for reimbursement of that tax money that they actually paid themselves to the provider as a reimbursement for money they had to spend on emergency services. Wow. Is that complicated. I know, but so that's what it is. Do you need to understand it that way? Not necessarily. What you need to understand is it's a little fuzzy, but not that fuzzy. So that Democrats should not do what I'm about to suggest, which is fight the good fight on Medicaid subsidies for people who aren't making enough to afford healthcare and need the aca, which you keep saying sucks, but you won't make it better because you want it to be bad and you have nothing better. So fight that fight.
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Do not fight the reimbursement rate. Fight for undocumented immigrants. Give it to Republicans and here's why. You give it to them and say you decide what rate you want to reimburse the states at so you own it. And when states start to complain that they had to spend all this money on undocumented immigrants and you won't reimburse for any of it and people are dying and kids to this and vulnerable to that and this is America and look at that, the Republicans will own it. That's what the Democrats should do. Well, why haven't they done it? That's interesting. My suggestion is it is not because they don't get it. If I can think of it, anyone can think of it. It's because they have a part of their party that, whether it's a misplaced sense of compassion or it is just a radical idea of what America is about, does want people who are not look aoc the most popular person in the Democratic Party. If you look at a lot of preference polls, I don't know if Kalshee's got something on that. But if you look at her, what does she say? I believe everyone in this country should have health care and she does not make a distinction when that comes to undocumented immigrants. So she is saying that. So they're right to accuse her of it. If I'm the Democrats, I give them that issue. I give it you decide they're not here legally they are not the Hill to die on. Citizens and their health care is the Hill to die on. That's what I think they should be doing. That's a big issue. And the people who, the party that wins, the side that wins that battle of perception will inherit the reality of winning the House of Representatives. Now the Senate. Senate, this, this is going to be an interesting one. Why? Well, look at the shutdown. How is the Senate different than the House? Well, let me tell you, that used to be a very long answer. Not so much anymore. I kind of see the Senate as kind of a redux of the House. I do not believe it is any longer the most deliberative body in the world. I don't think that you don't have the quality of people, you don't have the tenure of people. And the politics have gotten too simple and ugly, you know. Now what do we need to look at? Well, we're gonna look at where the smart money is now. The Republican Party is seen as winning the Senate. Well, how, how would the House be one way and the Senate be the other way? Why is it so dispositive? Because those seats don't turn over much, by the way. No seats turn over that much. You know, the incumbency effect is well over 90%. Why? Gerrymandering money in the game. I mean fundamentally I call that rigged. It's not illegal. But just like with money in politics in general, the problem is the legal money, not illegal money in the same way here. So it's that they have the advantage now the seats turn over so little. People's inherent interest in bias of balance does deliver that over to the Republicans. Now how does this shutdown. This number's going to change. Here's my prediction based on Kelsey's prediction. Here's my prediction. This number's gonna change based on how the shutdown ends because it's gonna end in the Senate. And whoever is seen as coming out on top in the Senate, if Democrats deliver those votes, cuz there aren't enough Republican ones to get through. What is the only, what I left out? What's the only meaningful difference between the House and the Senate? Now the filibuster that you need 60 votes on most important things. Should they get rid of the filibuster? I have a gut instinct that tells me, yeah, fuck it, you might as well just go simple majority now. Better minds tell me, no man, if you lose that, you lose any chance at having anything approaching real consensus. Okay, I'll relent on that for now. So that's the main difference is the filibuster, which means you need 60 votes, which means you need Democrats, unless you have 60 votes, which they don't have because the margin is very small. So Fetterman and one other Democrat senator voted to keep the government open. So they're going to need six. Right. So if they need six, then can the Democrats make it look like giving those votes means that it's a win for them? And if so, if so, these numbers are going to change. But right now it's 70, 30. Now, I'll make one last point. Here's my one last point. One, do I trust cow she's betters more than I trust my own instincts? Probably. Why? Because I'm not a great prognosticator. I don't even really see any value in that, to be honest. I guess there will be now because of these betting markets and people who can tell you how things are going to go, especially if they're not enforcing any insider trading rules. It'll become more of a commodity than it is in my mind in terms of a particular type of acumen. But I learned something in our town hall that I think is going to be a touchstone, a bellwether for who wins the midterms. The side that seems sensitive to. Okay. And respectful of and activated by. Give you a few different prepositional phrases there. The man who was named Jack Chris at the town hall. Black man, father, air traffic controller, sophisticated. Okay. That is a highly discretionary employee, not a ministerial job. Right. Furloughed. Okay. What does that mean? That he's kind of like working without pay. Basically, he tells a story at the town hall of how long is it going to last? Because I have to do door dash at night to pay my bills, specifically my daughter's tuition. That hit hard. That was a gut punch to the audience, to the players on the stage, and certainly to me. Okay, Furloughed, by the way, as a word, people think that means fired. No, it's actually a leave of office. It is putting an employee on temporary leave. I think it's a Dutch word. Yes, it's a Dutch word meaning leave of absence or permission. So it's a temporary leave of absence from duty. It's like forced vacation, but you're not paid. Okay. So you're not working, but you're not making money. And you're working to make the money. Right. So he tells this story, the side that is seen as being for Jack Chris, who can make it so that he doesn't have to be in doordash to pay his bills while working another job that actually matters to people's safety. There's like a sweet spot there. We need this guy as an air traffic controller. And the reason that he is compromised is because you suck at your job. And he has to do desperate things when we need him at his best to do what he does. And God forbid anything goes wrong. The person who can win that voter who. By what? By not just winning him, but winning people who are sensitive to or relate to his problem, either through personal experience or through preference that they care about what is happening to people like him. Right now, we are at a point where the country is sick of hearing that there are those who have too much and those who have not enough. It is relevant. Whoever wins the battle of being on the side of changing how many don't have enough is going to win the midterms. Now, how that manifests what it looks like, we don't know right now. But I'll tell you where I'll be watching. Is this smart money in the calcium markets? Because it'll probably be good as a weather vein of where we're going and we'll be watching it together over time. So midterms are coming. They're not tomorrow. A lot can change, and yet it is the most fundamental thing. Why? If the Democrats win the House of Representatives, the Trump administration is functionally over. Except for chaos. He will never pass another piece of meaningful legislation. Which means what? There can't be legal immigration change. The dreamers are fucked. Unless it's a deal that the Democrats like. Right. Which could be a good thing. But it means that he won't get it done by legislation. Which means what? He's gonna keep forcing it through executive actions. He's gonna do lawfare, he's gonna do all these other things, and it's gonna be a real shit show. So that is very threatening to Trump, I would argue, if he sees his legacy and his success as a function of what he gets done in terms of for people like Jack, Chris versus what he gets done for people versus what he gets to do to people. Lawfare, Vengeance, Right? That's the question that is before us. We'll watch the smart money, we'll figure it out together. But I'm telling you, the way we're framing it is worth thinking about it going forward. I'm Chris Cuomo. Thank you very much for subscribing and following checking me out on News Nation. 8p and 11p every weekday night and subscribing at our substack. Why? Because I'm using that money to do good things. Okay. Like what? Like help out Jack Chris. Like what? Like help out my friend or Wood Damon with her organization, Inara, that is helping the kids who are affected by the war. All right, for five bucks a month to be able to crowdsource contributions to things like that that make a difference in people's lives, I think it's worth it. It? Why else is it worth it? Because I'm sharing with you on my substack about my wellness journey and what I know about health and what I know about philosophy and how it affects you and how you can live your life through my own mistakes. That you can live your life a better way. I think it's worth five bucks. Especially when, you know, I'm using the money to help people get long Covid treatment with Dr. Robin Rose and to, you know, help things that we all agree are wrong. So I'll see you there. That's why I'm selling that free agent gear to kind of encourage you to wear your independence. I'm thinking of doing a shirt that says I am different. Why? Because, man, we gotta be different than what's being out there right now. Because we all hate what's out there, right? Maybe I am a critical thinker or just critical thinker. Why? Because who wants to be a lemming? There are too many out there. So, my brothers and sisters, the problems are real. The division is real. But let me tell you, there is absolutely opportunity to get us to a place called Better. So let's get after it.