04.14.25 Clarkonomics: What Is Stagflation / Pay In 4 Gets Worse

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Clark Howard Podcast – April 14, 2025 Episode

Title: Clarkonomics: What Is Stagflation / Pay In 4 Gets Worse
Host: Clark Howard
Release Date: April 14, 2025

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1. Introduction

In this episode of The Clark Howard Podcast, host Clark Howard delves deep into two pressing economic issues: the concept of stagflation and the increasing prevalence of "Pay In 4" payment schemes. Alongside these topics, Clark addresses listener questions ranging from Social Security concerns to credit card management and cybersecurity for personal finances.

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2. Clarkonomics: What Is Stagflation

Definition and Historical Context

Clark Howard kicks off the episode with a Clarkonomics segment explaining stagflation. He defines stagflation as an economic condition characterized by simultaneous stagnation (a slowing or recessionary economy) and inflation (rising prices). This dual predicament creates a "straight jacket" for the economy, making recovery challenging.

Clark Howard [00:05:00]: "Stagflation puts an economy kind of in a straight jacket, making it hard to break out of."

He references the late 1970s and early 1980s in the United States, highlighting how foreign actors manipulating oil imports led to severe stagflation, compounded by Federal Reserve policies that exacerbated inflation.

Current Indicators and Future Outlook

Clark discusses the current signs pointing towards a potential stagflation scenario in the near future (2025-2026). Although not as severe as historical instances, he terms the present condition "stagflation light," warning listeners to be vigilant about their personal finances amid economic uncertainty.

Clark Howard [00:08:10]: "Our conditions today are mild in the direction of stagflation from anything."

Implications for Personal Finances

Clark provides actionable advice for listeners navigating this economic landscape:

• Savings Accounts and CDs: With economic slowdown, more money flows into savings accounts and Certificates of Deposit (CDs), leading to lower interest rates. However, online banks still offer competitive rates compared to traditional banks.

  Clark Howard [00:07:45]: "Do not put money in a savings account or a CD in a traditional bank branch... with an online bank you could be earning 4-point something percent."

• Loan Interest Rates: Despite the economy slowing, interest rates on loans remain high due to persistent inflationary expectations and increased defaults, creating a challenging environment for consumers and workers.

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3. Listener Questions

A. Windfall Elimination Act and Social Security

A caller from South Carolina inquires about the Windfall Elimination Act's impact on Social Security payments, expressing concerns about unexpected lump-sum deposits and potential fraud.

Caller [00:08:29]: "We got a lump sum deposited into our account with no explanation which caused us some concern that something fraudulently or an error may have occurred."

Clark's Response:

Clark explains that the Windfall Elimination Act affects state and local government employees, causing some to become ineligible for certain Social Security benefits. He reassures the caller that such deposits are legitimate and encourages verification through the Social Security website.

Clark Howard [00:09:14]: "This is a legitimate thing. Go to the Social Security website for an explanation."

B. American Airlines Customer Service Issues

Julian from Florida shares a frustrating experience with American Airlines, detailing poor customer service and unfulfilled promises despite paying extra for seat upgrades and timely arrivals.

Caller [00:10:25]: "The $300 I had paid to get home early was completely wasted... the agent wouldn't let me board."

Clark's Response:

Clark criticizes American Airlines for its declining customer service reputation, attributing it to a culture that prioritizes cost-cutting over customer satisfaction. He advises filing complaints with the Department of Transportation and leveraging credit card protections for incurred costs.

Clark Howard [00:11:47]: "American has a reputation for treating people poorly... Delta and United are favored by consumers."

4. Pay In 4 Gets Worse

Transitioning from stagflation, Clark addresses the growing trend of "Pay In 4" schemes, highlighting their detrimental effects on consumers.

Understanding Pay In 4

"Pay In 4" allows consumers to split purchases into four easy payments, often enticing them to buy more than they can afford. Clark emphasizes that while it may seem convenient, it can lead to financial strain and negatively impact credit scores.

Clark Howard [00:18:52]: "Paying for is something that airlines love, retailers love, and now even fast food restaurants love because on food apps... It plays tricks on your mind."

Negative Consequences

• Deferred Payments: Consumers might overlook the obligation of making subsequent payments, leading to financial hardship.

• Credit Score Impact: Increasing use and defaults on Pay In 4 can lower credit scores, making future credit acquisition more difficult.

• Market Manipulation: Retailers and service providers exploit psychological tactics to encourage overspending.

Advice to Consumers

Clark cautions listeners to resist the allure of Pay In 4, urging them to consider their financial stability before committing to such payment plans.

Clark Howard [00:21:00]: "Don't fall for the temptation... it's manipulation to get you to spend money that maybe needs to not be spent."

5. Additional Listener Questions and Advice

A. Credit Card Management and Signup Bonuses

Lucas from California seeks advice on managing credit limits and the impact of signing up for multiple credit cards to receive signup bonuses.

Caller [00:22:00]: "I have a Capital One Quicksilver card with a reduced credit limit from $1,500 to $775... What gives?"

Clark's Response:

Clark advises maintaining a low credit utilization ratio (preferably below 30%) to enhance credit scores. He recommends paying down existing balances before seeking credit limit increases and exploring credit unions for additional credit options.

Clark Howard [00:25:38]: "If you play the game exactly as required and keep your credit score solid... keep doing it."

B. Cybersecurity for Personal Finances

John from Arizona inquires about securing his financial activities on a dedicated laptop, questioning whether a Chromebook is a suitable choice.

Caller [00:28:05]: "Is a Chromebook a good choice for tracking my accounts and paying my bills?"

Clark's Response:

Clark endorses the use of Chromebooks for financial activities due to their robust security features that minimize vulnerability to viruses. He also recommends using financial apps on smartphones as a safer alternative to browser-based transactions.

Clark Howard [00:28:19]: "Chromebooks are the absolute safest to use as your financial device."

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6. Conclusion

In this episode, Clark Howard provides insightful analysis on the looming threat of stagflation and the pitfalls of emerging payment schemes like Pay In 4. Through listener interactions, he offers practical advice on managing Social Security intricacies, navigating poor customer service experiences, optimizing credit card usage, and enhancing financial cybersecurity. Clark reinforces his mission to empower listeners with the knowledge to save more, spend less, and avoid financial pitfalls.

For more personalized advice, listeners are encouraged to reach out to the Team Clark Consumer Action Center via clark.com/cac.

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Notable Quotes:

• On Stagflation:

  "Stagflation puts an economy kind of in a straight jacket, making it hard to break out of."
  — Clark Howard [00:05:00]

• On Savings Accounts:

  "Do not put money in a savings account or a CD in a traditional bank branch... with an online bank you could be earning 4-point something percent."
  — Clark Howard [00:07:45]

• On Pay In 4:

  "Don't fall for the temptation... it's manipulation to get you to spend money that maybe needs to not be spent."
  — Clark Howard [00:21:00]

• On Credit Card Management:

  "If you play the game exactly as required and keep your credit score solid... keep doing it."
  — Clark Howard [00:25:38]

• On Cybersecurity:

  "Chromebooks are the absolute safest to use as your financial device."
  — Clark Howard [00:28:19]

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions from the April 14, 2025 episode of The Clark Howard Podcast, providing listeners with valuable insights into economic trends and personal financial management strategies.

Transcript

[Clark Howard]

This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Apple Card is a no fee credit card that gives you daily cash back every day. That's 3% back at Apple and 2% back on every purchase made with Apple Card using Apple Pay. Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on your iPhone today, subject to credit approval. Variable APRs for Apple Card range from 18.24% to 28.49% based on creditworthiness rates as of January 1, 2025. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and more at applecard.com youm're the owner of.

[Krista]

A small business, which means you're also the tech guy and HR and personal assistant and head honcho and intern. You could use another pair of hands like the experts you'll find at Verizon small business days, April 21 through 27. Get a free tech check, special deals and more. Call 1-800-483-4428 or visit verizon.com smallbusiness Book your appointment. Verizon Business it's my pleasure to welcome you here to the Clark Howard Show. You know, our mission is to serve you with advice and information that empowers you to make better financial decisions in your life. I'm going to begin today's show with a Clarkonomics session on something you may have been hearing about in the news. The possibility of stagflation. What is it? How do you prepare for it? And what's the potential of stagflation anyway? Also something I hate paying for. Buy now, pay later. However you want to say paying for. Not only does it stink, it's getting worse. Wait till you hear how bad it's become and why you should just say no, it's coming up later. So stagflation is something that you have to go in the Wayback machine. But we had stagflation in the late 70s into the early 80s. Stagflation was a really bad scenario and economists hate because it puts an economy kind of in a straight jacket, hard for it to break out of. And stagflation happens when you have both a slowing economy or a recession and inflation going higher or high inflation at the same time. Now are we going to have stagflation this year or maybe in 26? Hard to say. The signs are possible. Some economists would say probable, that we're headed to stagflation. And so there are things you've got to think about with your own wallet. Inflation seemed to be bending the right direction, but the economic uncertainty we have going on in the country right now has been a twofer, pushing prices up more than they were going up and at the same time slowing the economy. And it usually so most of the time, an economy functions almost separate from what goes on in Washington. But there can be policy mistakes from Washington that can lead to stagflation conditions. In the late 70s, it was actually foreign actors who were trying to bring the United States to its knees at a time when we lived overwhelmingly on imported oil. And our enemies at that time among oil producers were trying to devastate the U.S. economy. And they succeeded. And so we ended up in a declining economic cycle with rapid inflation. And some mistakes in that era by the Federal Reserve magnified the inflationary effect. Our conditions today are mild in the direction of stagflation from anything. If you, if you have relatives that were alive and adults back then, they can tell you what stagflation was like. It was bad. It was a bad economic environment. It was rough. We're not there, but let's call it stagflation light. What kind of things do you see? Well, I was talking briefly in response to a question last week and felt like I always get worried if I give like a quick answer to an individual question that I have not explained thoroughly the results that can happen. So as people get worried about the stock market and they may sell some of their positions or take money they might have put in the stock market, and they don't, where does the money tend to go? It goes into savings accounts or CDs. So suddenly banks and credit unions see more money coming their way for savings accounts and CDs. So what happens in the marketplace? The rates you can earn go down. So that's why we're seeing a lot of interest rate cuts that you and I can earn on savings and CDs. But there's a window right now here in mid April where you can still put money to work in an online savings account at a decent rate. Not the higher rates that we were seeing months ago and CDs, decent rates, but not the high rates we were seeing a year ago. But you can almost certainly still earn somewhere upper threes to mid fours on a savings account, an online savings account, with the rates changing, they can change every day. But the opportunity, if you've got money that you want to put in a cd, money you're not going to need for a year or so, there's still a window with a lot of the online banks where you can earn somewhere around four and a half percent plus or minus on the one year. And it might be harder to find as you go out in term find a rate at that kind of level. But the one thing not to do, not to do, and you'll hear me say this over and over again, unless you hate your wallet and hate your money, you do not put money in a savings account or a CD in a traditional bank branch because they wake up every day trying to figure out how they're going to cheat you out of a decent return on your money. And with the biggest banks, you put money in a savings account with them, you might be earning 1/100th of 1% where with an online bank you could be earning 4point something percent. It's your money. Make the choice. Now the other side of the stagflation light as I'm calling it, is that because of the inflationary expectations building in the economy and the number of defaults on credit cards and vehicle loans right now, interest rates, even as the economy slows, interest rates on loans are going to stay stubbornly high and could even go up from here even as what you can earn on savings is going down. It's why stagflation is a very anti consumer and any worker kind of environment.

[Caller]

Okay. Bob in South Carolina wrote him with this. Has Clark mentioned the Windfall Elimination act and its impact on Social Security payments? My wife, a retired teacher, has been a beneficiary of the act after having been severely penalized for many years. Does Clark have any comments on the act or how it's being implemented? When I access her online account, there's no information on the payment or her eligibility. We got a lump sum deposited into our account with no explanation which caused us some concern that something fraudulently or an error may have occurred.

[Krista]

Wait, money falling out of the sky, when does that happen?

[Caller]

Now really. After two weeks we finally got a letter from the SSA explaining in government speak what was going on. And Wes did do a segment on the Ask an Advisor show that we do on this, just so you know.

[Krista]

Yeah, so there were a lot of state and local government employees who were under prior congressional statute were made ineligible to receive Social Security. And even weirdly, there are people who had paid into Social Security at different points during their working lifetime who were no longer able to receive Social Security because of employment in state and local government. So Congress in its wisdom that had set up that system, changed it with the Windfall Elimination Act. So there are people now receiving some measure of Social Security plus these like kind of like bonus checks and so if one shows up like money falling out of the sky and you're wondering, scam real. Scam real. If you go to the Social Security website, there is an explanation that I think is better than government ease that explains who's eligible and how the money is being paid. And so this is a legitimate thing.

[Caller]

Julian, Florida says I need help with one of the big airlines. I'm a working mama with three kids, ages 9 to 14 and a not so helpful. Exactly. I get by with a lot of help from my friends. I had a nightmare business travel day getting home from Phoenix to Orlando. The trouble occurred at dfw. I had paid extra to change my ticket so I could get home early because my son wasn't feeling okay.

[Krista]

You might as well. Anybody who travels a lot, you got to be talking about American Airlines. Yes, okay.

[Caller]

Or some wasn't feeling well. At my connecting flight. I got to the gate in the nick of time and the gate agent refused to seat me. After giving up my seat to an AA crew member, she sent me down to customer service and they rebooked me quickly. Although I had to advocate to get the same seat I had paid for in the comfort class so I could be certain to have overhead bin space. Then when I get to the next gate, my carry on, which I have been carrying with me through multiple earlier flights which also fit in the carry on sizer, was refused. When I respectfully advocated, I was told if I had a problem I could talk to security. I kept my mouth shut and boarded the plane. At this point, the $300 I had paid to get home early was completely wasted. I racked up two hours because the agent wouldn't let me board after giving up my seat to a crew member. And then it took another 45 minutes in Orlando to pick up my bag. I contacted the airline customer service. They told me there was nothing they could do. They're sorry and hope that they can make it up to me on the next flight.

[Krista]

Okay, Julie, if you go on any of the frequent flyer blogs and you read what people are saying about the customer, no service problems at American, they become legendary and not in a good way. And file a [e-mail] that seems to be the only way that you get any compensation from American. Also the credit card that you paid for the costs you incurred. The extra cost may have delay coverage built into it where you can make a claim with them to receive back some of the money. But Americans attitude, the way I read Americans attitude from everything I'm seeing is yeah, yeah, we'll just put somebody else in the seat. You don't want to fly us, you say you're not going to fly us, go fly somebody else. It's a pretty hard, harsh environment right now at American Airlines for customers. And you know, there's a lot of talk about this, the problems that American Airlines in terms of attitude towards customers and that American gets a lot less revenue per passenger than the other two full fare airlines, Delta and United. And I think it's really because of this attitude problem at American towards customers that if you treat people like American seems to have developed a reputation for treating people and people have a choice in who they're going to fly and their business traveler, full fare traveler, they're more likely to go to Delta or United. Just look at the numbers and you'll see that whether it's perception or reality, that's what the marketplace is saying. And American, you used to be able with other airlines where you'd post something on social media and then they say let's do a DM here and let's see if we can get this solved. That doesn't seem to do anything from what I'm hearing. From what I read at American these days.

[Caller]

Donna in Florida says you talked about shaming companies that don't keep their promises, horrendous customer service, et cetera.

[Krista]

Okay, this is funny. Go ahead.

[Caller]

You definitely should. You would keep your listeners informed and not waste their time. Also, no company wants a bad reputation.

[Krista]

Okay, did you just pull that out of like your pocket?

[Caller]

No, but Donna obviously doesn't think you name enough company.

[Krista]

Okay, that is a riot. Okay, Donna, so it's so funny because you know, Krista read the thing and she said dfw. So I knew immediately it was American. Anybody who travels frequently knew that that plane change, Phoenix, Orlando was in Dallas. They would have known the whole story was about American. And I've been reading so much about the revenue problems at American and the service attitude issues at American. And so in this case it was, it's such a known event that relating that it was American was not an issue of reputational harm. I'm very careful when I name a company. If we don't know that the story we're hearing is valid. But the pattern of problems at American is such that I name them. So I'm, I'm picky and choosy when I do name a company because of the fact that often we don't know that the story we're hearing is actually what happened. I don't want to harm a company's reputation unnecessarily. And then there are times that the pattern of problems at a company is so clear that even if this one case is that three story thing, your story, their story, the truth, I think it's fine to give people the heads up that American has a problem right now and it goes all the way to the CEO, goes all the way to the top, that American does not have a culture that is customer oriented and that's just the fact. So I want people to know when they go to buy a ticket. Yeah, that ticket on American is a lot cheaper. But what's that experience going to be like? That's just something you got to know. So that's why you hear me sometimes talk about companies, sometimes don't and sometimes I'll make a mistake and I won't mention a company when I should have or reverse. So I just try to be very careful with that. And I just think that's so funny. Krista read that right after. Coming up ahead, let's talk about something that I make no bones about, that I despise pay in for and suddenly something terrible just got worse.

[Clark Howard]

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[Krista]

Very familiar with all the problems in other countries people had had with these hideous pay in four programs. And now even credit card companies afraid of the market share they're losing to the awful pay in fours. Now we're saying in some cases, hey, you know, pay this in four. Because they're getting market share, people are using paying for as a shortcut to make decisions that burn up their wallets. See, paying for is something that the airlines love, retailers love, and now even fast food restaurants love because you on food apps, some of them. DoorDash is an example you can do Paying for on the food delivery. That's what I need to do. I need to pay in for a meal from McDonald's. So four easy payments of A$25 each. Oh come on. Really? I mean why? Why do I hate paying for so much? Why did I hate it before it hit our shores so much? Because it plays tricks on your mind. You think, well you know, I really like that but I can't really afford it right now. But hey, Look, Pay in 4 is available. All I have to do is click here online or at the register, say yeah, I'll do pay in four. And then man, you know what's weird? Pay in four didn't mean you didn't have to pay for the item, just meant you didn't have to pay for it that second. And then you got to make those four easy payments. But often people don't have the money to make the four easy payments. And now more and more your payment record on paying for is now being reported. The credit bureaus and more and more people are ruining their credit from the pay in for. So what good use is they're paying for? I'm a business owner. I want to boost my sales and pay in for does that for me. But what does it do to you as the customer? It's trouble. Not just with a capital T but every letter of trouble is capital Letters flashing. So next time you're at a website and you're thinking, hey, I'd really like that outfit, or whatever it is, thinking, oh, look at that, I can just click here and pay in four. Or you're at the retailer and they're offering it to you, or you're really just dying for that Big Mac or whatever. Oh, my goodness. Don't fall for the temptation. Know that this is manipulation of you to get you to spend money that maybe needs to not be spent to keep your finances sound.

[Caller]

Oh, man, I remember.

[Krista]

I remember we were in a meeting, one of our weekly Monday meetings, and I had seen a story, I think it was two, three years ago, that this Australian company was coming to the United States with pay in four. And nobody other than me, it was familiar with it. And I was talking about, y'all were all looking at me like, why is he so upset about this?

[Caller]

I think it was more than that because I know that I used pay in four in 2020 on my Peloton bike because it was zero percent.

[Krista]

So it's been longer than that.

[Caller]

Yeah. And that actually worked out well for me because I had the money to do it, but I was like zero percent. I mean, of course I barely earned interest on the savings account, but I did use it the right way. But I know, I remember you getting so upset about it. I can see college students doing this with their pizza orders and stuff. What a nightmare. Okay, let's go to questions on that happy note. Bob, in California, is there a downside to signing up for too many credit cards? I sign up for a card with a big signup bonus like $900 or 80,000 miles. I meet my required spending during the first 90 days. Then I put the card in a drawer. If the card has an annual fee, I close the account before the end of the year. I'm a 60 year old retired school teacher. My way of saving is not spending, spending. Everything is paid off. My credit score is over 800 and I rarely use my credit score since I don't spend my money.

[Krista]

It's fantastic. I mean, go for it. Why not? If you will play the. It's like people who ask us about the things where they will send you something. How'd you like $500 to open a checking account with us? If you're somebody who will play the game exactly as required and close that checking account after the six months they may require, you keep it open so you don't get stuck with all the giant bank fees. Go for it. If you Want to play the credit card bounce around game? No. Eventually you'll run into the Chase and American Express things where they say, nope, nope, no bonus points for you. No bonus dollars for you. Because they each have ratios that are designed to punish people gaming the system. But the system is there to be gamed. And if you do pay everything in full, your credit score stayed solid. Keep doing it.

[Caller]

And you just talked in our meeting about credit card debt in the U.S. yeah.

[Krista]

Ugly.

[Caller]

It's. What is it?

[Krista]

The highest in highest, I think, since the dot bomb bubble burst in 2000. Or was it.

[Caller]

I think you said 13 years.

[Krista]

13. Yeah. I forget the exact date.

[Caller]

I read unlucky 13. In this case, Lucas in California says, hey, Clark, I've got a Capital One Quicksilver card. I got this card probably eight years ago when I first got it. I originally had a credit line of $1,500. I didn't really use it just for emergencies. Starting a couple of years ago, I've been using it more and I've built up my credit score. I've got an excellent score, but my available credit is only $775. Now.

[Krista]

That's dangerous.

[Caller]

When would it be a good time to ask them about an upgrade so that my credit limit ratio usage is lower than that 30% number you always talk about? I enjoyed your advice on having two credit cards from this not from the same company. So I tried to get another card. I did not get approved for it. About six months ago, I applied for the Amazon credit card and I got approved for that for $3,000. But two months later, they canceled it on me, saying it was something to do with the bank, that I closed an account there like 10 years ago. So I do not know what to do. I'm responsible with my finances now. I save, I invest. What else do I have to do here? My credit score is 785. What gives?

[Krista]

All right, so, Lucas, if your Capital One Quicksilver still has a $1500 limit, you're above 50% ratio. That puts you in a real danger zone with any credit issuer. And you're now in danger of people not wanting to do business with you for any kind of credit, because that 30%, they mean it. So before you do anything else, the number one thing you got to do before even Capital One will consider a limit raise, you've got to pay down that, that 775 because you're at 53%. Whatever.

[Caller]

I think he's. No, these was available. I think what happened was they lowered his available credit limit to 775 from 1500 dollars because he wasn't using it enough.

[Krista]

So you, you mean the whole limit is 775?

[Caller]

Right.

[Krista]

All right. So this is something we have been hearing, that cards that are used sparingly, the issuers are worried that you'll suddenly start charging them up if you hit financial hard times. And so they unilaterally start cutting limits or closing accounts. If that's what you're saying is the situation with Lucas, if that's it, we're interpreting your words as best we can, then I want you to contact Capital One and ask if you're eligible for a limit increase. And one of the things Capital One will ask you is a re verification of income. And if your income is fine, obviously your credit standing is good, you pay all your bills, you need to see if you can get a higher limit from them because others are going to turn you down, particularly when you've had a degrading of your limit with somebody else. Also, if you're a member of a credit union in California, you should go into the credit union or join one so you can do so and see how you can qualify for a credit card with them. That would be a good start. You know, credit unions are now more and more playing the same game is the big issuer of cards. And instead of offering airline stuff, they're offering a lot of cash back cards. And so a credit union card could be a good outlet for you to get and to use.

[Caller]

John in Arizona says, I thought I heard Clark say something about moving all finances to one laptop and using that laptop for that use only. Did I hear that right? And if so, is a Chromebook a good choice? I would like to use it to track my accounts and pay, pay my bills.

[Krista]

So, John, gosh, you're so on the money because the laptop I was talking about was getting a Chromebook only because the special design of a Chromebook that makes it much less vulnerable to viruses. And so Chromebooks are cheap. They're the new Chromebook pluses, which have apparently extra things built into them that make them even more secure. And you avoid the risks that come with so many of the viruses that attack Windows computers and to a lesser extent, MacBooks. But the Chromebooks are the absolute safest to use as your financial device. Also, using financial apps on your cell phone has proven to date to be a very safe way for you to transact financially using apps versus using a browser. Browser on a laptop, the app on a phone generally is going to be potentially the safest way, at least at this moment, for you to do financial things. But I love a Chromebook used solely for financial purposes. And I want to thank you so much for joining us on today's podcast. And I want to remind you that all week long, Monday to Friday, we have available to you 30 hours each week of free one on one advice from the Team Clark Consumer Action Center. You have a problem, you have a question, whatever, you can get that empowerment of knowledge and confidence to solve a problem through our Team Clark Consumer Action Center. You want to see how to contact us, go to clark.com cac and everything we do is all about you learning ways to save more, spend less, and avoid getting ripped off. And I'll see you on Wednesday.