Clark Howard (16:23)
So the joke is economists have predicted 12 of the last two recessions that their economic models will be too pessimistic. They don't understand the flexibility and creativity of capitalism, and that it is true there are times that the trends look like they're Slowing, but that somehow we come out of it and avoid a recession. That's happened a a lot over the decades. But recessions are a normal part of capitalism. You go through periods of overly exuberant expansion followed by accumulations of debt and then and other external factors will lead to a recession, which is basically the economy goes into the dumps. And there was a new report in the last couple of weeks from Moody's and their chief economist, who's very well respected, said that 22 states in the country are already in a recession or close to one. And I looked at the map and it's scattered all over the country. There are various factors that have already put some state economies in into recession, others on the bubble, and a little bit more than half the states right now are still growing economically. Those 22 though that account for a huge percent of the nation's population are really in a slowdown or a full onset of what would normally be classically for a country considered to be a recession. So I want you to think about doing what I think is so important and that's hope for the best, but prepare for the worst inside the four walls of your own financial life that you think through. Okay, if I walked in one day and unexpectedly was laid off from my place of work, or out of nowhere the company I work for went bust and then I got not even my current paycheck showing up, what do I do? Where am I financially? And this is a a good time with getting these warning signals that don't necessarily mean that we're going to have a full blown national recession, but we could and the factors that show we are more likely to have one than not are pretty clear if we don't have one. And you use this early warning as a time to get your finances ship shape, awesome. Because you're going to be better off even if we don't have a recession. But you'll be preparing yourself if we do have one. And you have to be prepared to live with disruption financially in your own life. So what are the things you should do? They're obvious as could be. It's just, will you do them? Number one, Americans are carrying a very high level of debt right now. In a lot of states it's at record levels and inflation adjusted. This isn't because we've had a lot of inflation. So if I'm talking to you and you're carrying a lot of debt and by debt that matters, it's anything that would be considered to be lifestyle debt, which is credit cards, personal Loans pay in fours and I'm going to make you cringe. Vehicle loans, those are all lifestyle kind of loans because yeah, you have to have a vehicle to get to and from work. But did you really need that newer vehicle? Did you need the fancier vehicle? That's why that's a lifestyle thing. A mortgage that's not considered to be lifestyle. Think about the debts you have. Do you have a plan to curtail the amount of debt you have in your life? Do you, do you have a plan to pay off the debt you have in your life? We have a simple tool on clark.com under our calculators that if you resolve, you're going to pay down your debt and you're going to set a time goal. Maybe may take years, may take months. Whatever it is, you can play with the parameters and see how long it'll take. You paying X number of dollars per month to be out of debt or the reverse. I want to be out of debt in this amount of time. How much am I going to have to pay every month at the interest rates I'm paying? I want you thinking about it. I want you doing what people don't find comfortable to do. Which if you're carrying a lot of debt, you write it down. I love not a computer screen for this. I like pencil and paper so it's staring you right in the face. I owe this much to blah blah, blah, Visa. I owe this much to this MasterCard. And these are the interest rates on them. Look at those numbers because that's how reality sets in. If all you do is get electronic statements and you see what your minimum payment is and you're paying that, that is set up for you to be in debt for ever on your electronic or paper statement. It'll show how much you have to pay per month to be debt free. And I Forget if it's 30 months, 36, whatever. And those numbers will stare you in the face if you look at them. But the point is to tackle it, to figure out what the situation is and take it on. And maybe you are somebody who needs a budget. I love YNAB because it forces people that are carrying a lot of debt to really think through what they're spending because the debt results from what you spend, right? So that's number one, number two. And you can't do everything all at once. But number two is what kind of reserves do you have? If out of nowhere you got laid off, what are you going to live on? Have you thought about that? What's your plan? B, what are you going to do if a meteor of financial problems lands on you? How are you going to handle it? So you face it now, prepare now. You improve your finances now, and the net result is you're in a better position, better situation, no matter what, recession or not. Okay, I ready to coach the team.