The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: A New Iranian Revolution?
Date: January 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines the eruption of mass protests in Iran and considers whether these might represent the beginning of the end for the 47-year-old Islamic Republic. Host John Podhoretz is joined by Commentary editors and special guest Jonathan Schanzer (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies), who bring decades of Middle East analysis to bear on this potentially historic moment. The panel explores how the current unrest compares to previous eruptions, analyzes the regime's fragility, assesses regional and international dynamics, and criticizes Western and media responses.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What’s Different About the 2026 Iranian Protests?

• Historical Continuity and Change
  • Schanzer traces a “continuum” of popular protest since the “missed historic opportunity” of 2009, with subsequent waves in 2017-18 and 2022 (Mahsa Amini protests).
  • "There have been something like 8,000 of these protests since that time period...It has been a consistent theme inside Iran that people are still coming out and challenging this horrific, autocratic, kleptocratic, theocratic regime." (Schanzer, 04:39)
• Domestic Drivers
  • Hyperinflation and the collapse of the Rial.
  • Severe water crisis, environmental degradation, and blackouts.
  • The regime’s ham-fisted attempts to buy compliance (offering $7 per person) are derided by the public.
  • “They offered $7 to the people to stay home. Not happening right now.” (Schanzer, 09:31)
• Regime’s Fear and Paralysis
  • Internet and communication blackouts signal regime panic.
  • Unusual restraint (so far): about 45 deaths and 2200 arrests—“modest in scope compared to what we've seen in the past” (Schanzer, 09:46).
  • “I think the regime right now appears chastened by the Trump administration's threats.” (Schanzer, 09:19)

2. International Factors Reshaping the Moment

• External Pressure
  • US President Donald Trump’s explicit threats warn the regime not to fire on protesters.
    • “Donald Trump is actually calling for the regime to go down. He's telling them, ‘don't touch the protesters, keep your blood soaked hands off of the Iranian people.’ That is a huge difference.” (Schanzer, 03:59)
  • Israel’s military blows: “Israel shellacked the Iranians during that 12 day war last year. Punctuated by the US bombing of those Iranian nuclear sites—the regime has lost credibility.” (Schanzer, 04:16)
• Strategic Weakening
  • Regional proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) have been crippled, leaving Iran more isolated.
  • “If this regime collapses, that means Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, the Shiite militias in Iraq, they all lose their top patron...a domino effect that would be so incredibly healthy for the region.” (Schanzer, 10:57)
  • Russia and China declined to come to Iran’s aid during recent conflicts, further undermining Tehran’s confidence.
• Assassinations and Targeted Operations
  • High-profile US and Israeli assassinations (Soleimani, Haniyeh, operations in Doha and Lebanon, and even extraction of Maduro from Venezuela) deepen regime insecurity.
  • Podhoretz speculates: “the very real possibility must be haunting your brain that some Delta force could land in the middle of Tehran, grab the Ayatollah...” (Podhoretz, 25:01)
• Information Warfare and Starlink
  • Starlink (Elon Musk) reportedly enables some Iranians to access outside internet and share images, frustrating regime control (Schanzer, 14:09).

3. Signs This Time Could Be Different

• Depth and Breadth of Popular Anger
  • Protests aren’t just in Tehran—buildings torched across the country. Regional symbols of regime control are under attack, even in the Supreme Leader’s hometown. (12:42)
• Women’s Leadership and Symbolism
  • Iconic acts (women confronting security forces) evoke Tiananmen’s “tank man.” (14:09)
  • Regime offers to relax hijab rules are dismissed as “too little, too late.” (26:54)
• Security Forces’ Caution
  • Signs that some security units may be “reluctant to turn their guns on protesters”—potential for a “tipping point.” (15:02)
• Absence of Unified Leadership
  • Uprising is “organized at local cells...pocket by pocket, but it's all growing.” (Jonathan Schanzer, 34:48)
  • Exiled Crown Prince’s supportive message reportedly augments protest turnout (34:32).

4. Western & Media (Non)Response

• Lack of Western Support
  • Panel expresses outrage at muted US official, European, campus, and Hollywood responses.
    • “Where are all these self-righteous, smug people that were like out there talking about Gaza and Palestine and they're not supporting the people of Iran...?” (Schanzer, 07:04)
• Selective Media Coverage
  • BBC and New York Times criticized for downplaying the Iranian protests while credulously airing Gaza videos during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
    • “They were...publishing all of this stuff and then going, well, you know, we report, you decide...Now they're saying, well, we have to be responsible.” (Rosen, 41:59)
• Campus Hypocrisy
  • “It is absolutely not surprising that there are no campus protesters coming out in favor of the Iranian people now. They have spent years protesting in favor of the Iranian regime and its proxies.” (Seth Mandel, 43:39)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On American Missed Opportunities (2009, 2022):

  • “It was just a swing and a miss from President Barack Obama. He basically decided to throw the Iranian people under the bus...an historic missed opportunity.” (Schanzer, 03:06)
  • “Once again, we see an American president unwilling to harness what's going on inside Iran. And again, shameful.” (Schanzer, 04:03)

• On Fear Dissipating:

  • “When you puncture the...seeming inevitability or impermeability of something, the fear dissipates in a way, and you can sort of feel it in the air, right?” (Christine Rosen, 17:24)

• On Trump’s Impact:

  • “Trump comes along and says now, last week or two weeks ago, when he said, ‘don't do it, don't you go fire on these protesters. I am not going to let that happen.’” (Podhoretz, 29:52)

• On Iran’s Regional Setbacks:

  • “Iran has lost its proxy in Gaza...Hezbollah down to about 20 or 25% of its previous strength....the government of Lebanon...is threatening to end the rule of Hezbollah inside Lebanon. That's amazing.” (Schanzer, 19:25)

• On Media Double Standards:

  • “You have to verify these things as a news organization. We're not on the ground in Iran...Do you listen to yourself? Like how 50 videos of flooding tents in Gaza a day, you put on a day?” (Rosen, 41:57)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:56] – Schanzer: Why this protest wave is different and the impact of 2009, 2017, and 2022.
• [04:16] – Discussion of the new international dynamic: American and Israeli action; regime weakness.
• [09:19] – The regime’s response and risks of violence.
• [12:42] – Torchings and popular mobilization at local/regional level—what’s new.
• [14:09] – Starlink and regime’s struggle for information control.
• [15:02] – Will the security forces break? Potential for “tipping point.”
• [17:24] – Israel’s role and regional domino effects.
• [24:07] – Impact of targeted assassinations and intelligence failures on regime paranoia.
• [26:54] – Regime’s attempt to appease by easing hijab enforcement—a sign of regime weakness.
• [29:52] – “Teeth” of US policy under Trump vs. past administration hesitation.
• [34:32] – Exiled Crown Prince’s call and organizational state of the protests.
• [40:00] – The challenge for Western policy, media, and Europe not seizing this opportunity.
• [41:57] – BBC/media defensive on lack of coverage; comparison to Israel-Gaza coverage.
• [43:39] – Hypocrisy on college campuses and among Western progressives.
• [52:07] – Podhoretz reflects on American public’s historical hatred of the Khomeinist regime.

Analysis and Takeaways

• The Panel’s Assessment:
  The panel is cautiously optimistic but sober; Schanzer warns, “We still have a long way to go in order for this to do what I hope it does, which is to bring down the regime.” (34:48) The historic scale, breadth, and regime response to the 2026 protests make this a pivotal moment, especially with international climate shifting against Tehran. Yet, the absence of clear protest leadership and the unpredictability of regime collapse scenarios give cause for caution.

• Calls to the West and Media:
  Strong criticism is directed at US and European leaders, college campuses, and major media for silence or hypocrisy. The panel urges “maximum support for the Iranian people,” lamenting that historic moments are not being seized or even acknowledged by those who championed other causes.

• Why This Moment Could Matter:
  The collapse of the Iranian regime could realign the entire Middle East: isolating terrorist proxies, reducing regional violence, and perhaps resolving a decades-old American foreign policy dilemma.

Final Note

While the panel celebrates the courage and persistence of the Iranian people and the relative resolve of external actors in 2026, the episode closes with the hosts acknowledging the unpredictability remaining—and lamenting the unwillingness of much of the American establishment to recognize or support a potentially transformative moment for Iran and the Middle East.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking an in-depth, timestamped guide to the central themes, arguments, and personalities featured in the episode while preserving the original conversational, insightful, and critical tone of the panel.