The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode: “A Not-Good Election for the GOP”

Date: December 3, 2025
Host: John Podhoretz
Guests: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Eliana Johnson, Jesse Arm

Overview:

This episode dives into troubling recent results for the Republican Party, exemplified by the underwhelming GOP performance in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district special election, and analyzes deeper fractures within the Republican coalition revealed by new polling data from the Manhattan Institute. The roundtable discusses the challenges facing “normie” and “new entrant” Republicans, the impact of Trump’s leadership on party cohesion and messaging, and the strategic imperatives for the GOP heading into 2026 and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tennessee’s 7th District Special Election: A Warning Shot

• Result: A far-left Democrat, Afton Bain (“AOC of Tennessee”), dramatically overperformed in a deep red district: GOP margin dropped from Trump’s +22 (2024) to just +9.
  • “The Republican…won by fewer than 10 points. A seat won by more than 20 by Trump and by its occupant in 2024.” (John Podhoretz, 03:06)
• High Democratic Turnout:
  • “Turnout matched 2022 midterm levels, which is high for a special election…for a terrible Democratic candidate to overperform Kamala Harris by 13 points, that’s a warning for Republicans.” (Eliana Johnson, 05:16)
• Broader Context: 7th special election of 2025 where Democrats have overperformed, signaling a possible national trend heading into the 2026 midterms.

Notable Quote:

“If you’re a Republican in the House in any kind of a seat where you might have a competitive race…this is not good news.”
– John Podhoretz (04:22)

2. Republican Troubles: Retirements and Lack of Cohesion

• Risks: More GOP retirements are expected; being in the House minority is “the crappiest job in the world.” (08:08)
• Message Crisis:
  • “What does it mean to be a Republican now with Trump in office? All it means is currently you are a champion of the last thing Trump did. And that is an impossible place to be if you’re trying to put together a cohesive campaign.” (Abe Greenwald, 10:23)
• Intraparty Tensions: Public spats and inability to distance from Trump complicate local Republican campaigns.

Notable Quote:

“You’re not allowed to say things. You then say them in a weird way…if you have to say something.”
– John Podhoretz (12:36)

3. Affordability as the Central Message & Trump’s Limitations

• Consensus: The only plausible winning GOP message is on “affordability.”
  • “Republicans need to be talking about the affordability message…Trump administration recognizes that.” (Jesse Arm, 12:43)
• Trump’s Challenge: He tends to automatically claim economic perfection and is resistant to changing the message:
  • “Trump is uniquely ill-suited to do something about the affordability message…his impulse at every moment is to say, I have given you the best economy in the history of the planet Earth…” (John Podhoretz, 25:05)

Notable Moment:

• Kristi Noem praised Trump for “keeping the hurricanes away”—lampooned as evidence that Trump’s inner circle isn’t delivering honest assessments. (25:44)

4. Manhattan Institute Study: GOP’s Two Factions

Segment: [32:09–57:18]

Research Overview

• Jesse Arm presents new polling: ~3,000 Republicans, with oversamples of Black and Hispanic members, revealing two distinct groups.

Core Republicans (65%):

• Consistently Republican since 2012.
• Conservative on economics, foreign policy (pro-Israel, hawkish on China), and social issues.

New Entrant Republicans (29%):

• Younger, more racially diverse, and more likely to have voted Democrat recently.
• Hold much more liberal/progressive views—even on DEI, China, Israel, migration.
• Some elements more open to political violence and expressing anti-Semitic or racist views.

Notable Quotes:

“The trend…among the rising class of Zoomer and millennial staffers…is they may actually be…to the right of the Republican voter…the coalition is as ideologically diverse as it is.”
– Jesse Arm (40:53–44:22)

“The Trump coalition probably cannot be kept together by anyone other than the singular…political talent that is Donald Trump.”
– Jesse Arm (53:52)

Strategic Dilemma:

• Can the “Trump coalition” persist or even be held together by anyone but Trump?
• “Normie” Republicans dominate in numbers but aren’t driving the conversation; the “new entrants” get disproportionate attention.

5. Will the Party’s Future Belong to Normies or New Entrants?

Segment: [56:55–63:27]

• The future “right-of-center” coalition may require creative realignment and new coalition-building (see discussions around figures like Dave Portnoy, Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson).
• Host notes the Reagan analogy: post-Reagan conservatism had policy through-lines; post-Trump, it’s unclear what those will be. (57:18–60:49)
• Critical divide: “Success-oriented” vs. “grievance-oriented” conservatism.
  • “It’s up for grabs. I don’t know whether success-oriented conservatism or grievance-oriented conservatism wins out.” (Jesse Arm, 63:27)

6. Democrats’ Challenge: Far-Left Candidates and Messaging

• Discussion that Democrats continue to sabotage themselves in red states by nominating “hardcore left” candidates who are out of step even for Democrats.

  • “I think Republicans were saved in Tennessee’s 7th…because Democrats picked the wrong candidate…she said she hated the state and described the voters as a bunch of racists. And it was still only a nine point race.” (Jesse Arm & Eliana Johnson, 15:47–17:14)

• The “professional Democrat” staffer class continues to push the party left; this is increasingly a trap.

7. American Jewish Politics and the Right’s Ascendancy:

Segment: [68:23–74:11]

• Jesse Arm notes a shift in American Jewish donor and institutional alignment away from liberalism/progressivism toward conservative, pro-Israel activism.

  • “You are seeing evidence of the fact that influential American Jews who once bankrolled Democrats and left-of-center institutions are now sort of unashamedly responding to the threats they face…” (Jesse Arm, 68:23)

• The “American Jewish right is ascendant,” especially on key issues involving Israel.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Republican House minority:

  “Maybe the crappiest job in the world is to be in the minority in the House of Representatives. You have no power. You’ve got nothing…”
  – John Podhoretz (08:08)

• On Trump’s unique role:

  “The Trump coalition, kind of unique in American history, really, is personality-based.”
  – John Podhoretz (57:24)

• On the party’s generational challenge:

  “The conventional Republicans are older, some of them much older…and the fear is what happens when they die off.”
  – Abe Greenwald (67:51)

• On shifting Jewish political identity:

  “The American Jewish right is ascendant…a coalition of the Democratic Party and the American Jewish left have lost their fight for the soul.”
  – Jesse Arm (71:01)

Timestamps: Segment Highlights

• [03:06] – Tennessee’s 7th district result context
• [05:16] – Afton Bain’s surprising overperformance
• [10:23] – What does it mean to be a Republican with Trump in office?
• [12:43] – Affordability as the only plausible GOP message
• [25:05] – Trump’s unwillingness to acknowledge economic problems
• [32:09] – Start of Manhattan Institute survey discussion
• [53:52] – Dilemma: Can the Trump coalition survive Trump’s exit?
• [56:55] – Will future GOP coalitions be personality-driven, issue-driven, or both?
• [68:23] – Arm’s remarks on current American Jewish political realignment

Final Takeaways

• For the GOP: A series of underwhelming special election results (including in safe seats) should be seen as an acute warning, especially with 2026 midterms looming.
• Coalitional Fractures: Despite “normie” Republicans outnumbering “new entrants” 2-to-1, the direction and energy of the party is still up for grabs, and the post-Trump realignment remains uncharted territory.
• Democratic & Republican Messaging: Both parties risk alienating swing voters and core constituencies through extremism and incoherent messaging.
• For Jewish Conservatives: The right is “ascendant” as a political home for pro-Israel Jews amid mounting left-wing hostility to Israel.

Links & Further Reading

• Manhattan Institute GOP Survey: Manhattan Institute Polls
• Jesse Arm’s Twitter: @Jesse_Leg

This summary captures the core arguments and the spirited, sometimes sardonic tone of the Commentary roundtable, bringing clarity to urgent questions about the GOP’s future, Trump’s paradoxical centrality, and the state of American Jewish political alignment.