Transcript
Jon Podhoretz (0:04)
Hope for the best, Expect the worst.
Abe Greenwald (0:10)
Some preach and pain Some die of.
Jon Podhoretz (0:13)
Thirst the way of knowing which way.
Abe Greenwald (0:17)
It'S going Hope for the best Expect the worst Hope for the best welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily Podcast. Today is Monday, March 24, 2025. I am Jon Podhortz, the editor of Commentary magazine. With me as always, Executive Editor Abe Greenwald. Hi Abe. Hi John. Remember everybody. Abe's newsletter comes out mid afternoon Monday through Friday. Go to commentary.org, look at the top banner, see the word newsletter, click on it, put in your email address. Subscribe. You will be enriched on a daily basis by Abe's observations and also our Washington Commentary columnist and Director of Domestic Policy Studies, Matthew Continetti. Hi Matt.
Jon Podhoretz (1:05)
Hi John.
Abe Greenwald (1:07)
Okay, so this morning Axios king of the Washington Insider Newsletter business has a newsletter by the king of the early morning newsletter Washington Business. Pretty much the founder of the morning Washington newsletter business, Mike Allen, multi zillionaire from his many from his things going private and selling and so he doesn't even need to work anymore and here he is providing us with a morning newsletter. And what is it? It is a pre obit. It's like a pre written obit for the Democratic Party that he has published now called Dem's Deep Dark Hole. So let me just read a couple of things from it. Top Democrats say their party is in its deepest hole in nearly 50 years and they fear things could actually get worse. Jim Vande Hei and Mike Allen writing Behind the Curtain column. Here are the bullet points. Party Lowest favorability ever no popular leader to help improve it Insufficient numbers to stop most legislation in Congress A durable minority on the Supreme Court Dwindling influence over the media ecosystem with right leaning podcasters and social media accounts ascended Young voters growing dramatically more conservative A bad 2026 map for Senate races Democrat Senate retirements could make it harder for the party to flip the House with members tempted by statewide races. There are only three House Republicans in districts former Vice President Harris won in 2024, a dim sign for a Democratic surge because there were 23 eight years ago in seats Hillary Clinton won. Meaning I believe that there's nowhere for Democrats to grow on the map. And thanks to the number of people fleeing blue states, the math for the Dem to win the presidency will just get harder. Doug Sosnik, senior adviser to President Bill Clinton and widely followed thinker and political management, told us this is the Dem's deepest hole in at least the 45 years since Ronald Reagan's victory in 1980. Sosnik said the 2024 election was at least as much a repudiation of Democrats as it was a victory for Trump and Ezra Klein. They note something that we have pointed out before on the podcast. If if current trends hold clear and the 2020, 2030 census comes out the way people expect it will, the party will lose. The Democratic Party will lose as many as a dozen house seats and 12 electoral votes, meaning those votes after the census recalibrates how many electoral votes each state gets, 12 of those electoral votes out of the 538 will shift to red states or solid red states from blue states. The Democrats dismal reality is not Republican spin. In fact, there's broad consensus among Democratic leaders that most current political, cultural, media and generational trends are cutting against them. Democrats are losing working class voters, says Ezra Klein. They're seeing their margins among non white voters erode and vanish. They're losing young voters. Something is wrong in the Democratic Party. A 23 point swing against Democrats among immigrants, Democratic support dropping by 50% among Hispanics who consider themselves conservatives. And David Shore, the data master, says young voters, regardless of race and gender, have become more Republican. And that's what spooks him most. So time for a party at the rnc. Matt Continetti, because I had the triumphalism here, it's reverse triumphalism, obviously, is, I think, a little alarming to me because I don't think when you, when you see these things, it's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, and Barack Obama was going to preside over a generation of eternal Democratic rule for a thousand years, right?
