Summary of "Are Dems at a 50-Year Low?" – The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Release Date: March 24, 2025
Host: Jon Podhoretz
Executive Editor: Abe Greenwald
Contributors: Matthew Continetti

Introduction

In the episode titled "Are Dems at a 50-Year Low?" Jon Podhoretz, Abe Greenwald, and Matthew Continetti delve deep into the current state of the Democratic Party in the United States. Drawing from recent analyses, including insights from an Axios newsletter and data from political analysts like David Shore, the hosts explore the multifaceted challenges facing Democrats today.

Demographic Shifts and Declining Favorability

Jon Podhoretz opens the discussion by referencing a critical Axios newsletter penned by Jim Vande Hei and Mike Allen, which ominously titles the Democratic Party as being in its "deepest hole in nearly 50 years." The newsletter outlines several alarming indicators:

• Lowest Favorability Ratings: Democrats are experiencing their worst favorability ratings in decades, compounded by a lack of charismatic leaders to rejuvenate the party.

• Legislative Challenges: The party holds insufficient numbers in Congress to effectively stop most Republican-led legislation.

• Supreme Court and Media Influence: With a durable minority on the Supreme Court and diminishing influence over the media ecosystem—now dominated by right-leaning podcasters and social media accounts—Democrats find their traditional strongholds eroding.

• Demographic Conservative Shifts: Young voters, particularly among Hispanic communities, are becoming markedly more conservative, diverging from earlier trends where minority voters remained loyal to Democratic ideals.

At [01:07], Abe Greenwald emphasizes the severity of the situation:
"David Shore has provided an excellent autopsy of the 2020 election... Underneath the top lines there were troubling trends for the Democrats."
(Timestamp: [05:13])

The Impact of Hispanic Voters and the Youth

A significant portion of the conversation centers on David Shore's findings that Hispanic voters are increasingly voting based on ideology rather than party loyalty. This shift undermines the Democratic Party's historical advantage of securing votes through minority communities.

Abe Greenwald underscores the robustness of this trend:
"This is not a poll of 1,200 people or a survey of 10,000 people. He is collating data from 24 million surveys taken in 2024."
(Timestamp: [08:49])

Additionally, the hosts discuss the evolving attitudes of younger generations. Jon Podhoretz notes that Gen Z and the emerging Gen Alpha are rejecting progressive ideologies ingrained through educational systems, leading to increased conservatism among young voters.

Matthew Continetti adds:
"These are teenagers who look at the system that has nurtured them... They are repudiating it the way that teenagers repudiated the post-war conservative society."
(Timestamp: [09:56])

Election Outcomes and Party Strategy

The discussion transitions to recent election outcomes, particularly the high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Jon Podhoretz anticipates that if Democrats manage to retain key seats, it could be spun as evidence of a Democratic resurgence. However, Abe Greenwald counters by pointing out that broader trends overshadow individual victories, emphasizing the sustained decline in Democratic strength across the nation.

Jon Podhoretz reflects on the 2024 election dynamics:
"The election takes place in swing states... Republicans are the party of the working class now."
(Timestamp: [25:18])

Institutional Challenges and Executive Actions

A critical segment of the podcast examines the Trump administration's actions affecting higher education and legal institutions. Abe Greenwald discusses Trump's executive orders targeting Columbia University and the prestigious law firm Paul Weiss:

• Columbia University Agreement: Columbia conceded to Trump’s demands to avoid losing federal funding, agreeing to enforce strict policies against mask-wearing at protests, increasing campus security, and placing the Middle East Studies department under receivership. This sets a worrying precedent for academic independence.

• Paul Weiss Settlement: Facing exclusion from federal projects and buildings, Paul Weiss agreed to provide pro bono services to conservatives, spending $40 million to fight antisemitism and other initiatives. Abe Greenwald criticizes this as a surrender to presidential pressure rather than standing on principled grounds.

Jon Podhoretz comments on Paul Weiss's capitulation:
"It's villainy and it's terrible... it's something horrifying about the President bullying a private firm."
(Timestamp: [58:56])

The Future of the Democratic Party

The hosts explore potential paths forward for Democrats amidst their current struggles. Matthew Continetti suggests that internal reform is necessary, advocating for leaders who can unify the party by addressing its internal divisions and reconnecting with the broader electorate.

Abe Greenwald reflects on historical precedents:
"No one is studying it yet. The departments are being... What is a generic Democrat right now?"
(Timestamp: [31:13])

The conversation also touches on the need for the party to balance ideological commitments with pragmatic strategies to regain lost ground.

Concluding Thoughts

In closing, Jon Podhoretz offers a sobering perspective on the cyclical nature of political fortunes, emphasizing that while the Democratic Party is currently in a precarious position, political landscapes can shift rapidly. Both parties have experienced periods of decline and resurgence, often influenced by charismatic leadership and external events.

Jon Podhoretz advises conservatives to remain vigilant yet measured, recognizing that political dominance is not permanent and that strategic adjustments are crucial for long-term success.

Jon Podhoretz concludes:
"The pendulum always swings, the wheel always turns, and so the Democrats aren't done."
(Timestamp: [34:36])

Key Takeaways

• Democratic Decline: The Democratic Party faces its worst favorability in nearly half a century, driven by demographic shifts and declining support among key voter groups.

• Hispanic and Youth Voters: Increasing ideological alignment with conservatism among Hispanic and younger voters undermines traditional Democratic strongholds.

• Institutional Pressure: The Trump administration's targeting of academic and legal institutions signals a broader assault on liberal-leaning establishments.

• Future Prospects: Effective revitalization of the Democratic Party may require new leadership, strategic realignment, and addressing internal fractures to reconnect with the electorate.

Notable Quotes

• Abe Greenwald at [05:13]:
  "David Shore has provided an excellent autopsy of the 2020 election... Underneath the top lines there were troubling trends for the Democrats."

• Matthew Continetti at [09:56]:
  "These are teenagers who look at the system that has nurtured them... They are repudiating it the way that teenagers repudiated the post-war conservative society."

• Jon Podhoretz at [58:56]:
  "It's villainy and it's terrible... it's something horrifying about the President bullying a private firm."

• Jon Podhoretz at [34:36]:
  "The pendulum always swings, the wheel always turns, and so the Democrats aren't done."

Conclusion

The episode "Are Dems at a 50-Year Low?" presents a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing the Democratic Party, backed by robust data and insightful commentary. The hosts argue that demographic changes, ideological shifts, and institutional pressures have led to a significant decline in Democratic influence. However, they also acknowledge the cyclical nature of politics, suggesting that with strategic adjustments, the party could navigate its current predicament. This in-depth discussion provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the evolving political landscape in the United States.