The Commentary Magazine Podcast

Episode Title: Bad Republican Political Ploys
Date: February 2, 2026
Host: John Podhoretz
Panelists: Abe Greenwald, Seth Mandel, Christine Rosen

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Commentary team dives into the fallout from a disastrous Texas special election, examining what it reveals about the current state—and strategic missteps—of the Republican Party. The hosts discuss the GOP’s failed electoral maneuvers, the perils of “idiot Machiavellianism,” and what this portends for the party’s future, particularly outside the Trump orbit. The conversation spans the signal loss of Hispanic voters, redistricting gone wrong, and the broader challenge of short-term, personality-driven politics. The latter half of the episode pivots to a thoughtful (and at times passionate) exploration of the legal and cultural reckoning around transgender medicine for minors, culminating with a look at the newly released Epstein files and their social reverberations. The show also closes with a brief remembrance of the late comedy legend Catherine O'Hara.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Texas Special Election: A Republican Wake-Up Call

• Disastrous Loss and Its Implications
  • Texas, a deeply red, border state, witnessed a 30-point swing toward Democrats in a major Senate district Trump had previously won handily.
  • Ron DeSantis, outgoing FL governor, publicly flagged the loss on social media—interpreted by the panel as an attempt to refocus the GOP’s gaze beyond Washington and Trump’s cult of personality.
  • Quote: “Nobody can put a lipstick on this pig.” – John Podhoretz [03:03]
• Loss of Hispanic Voters
  • Christine Rosen recounts how the Hispanic swing toward Republicans in 2024 had been pivotal to Trump’s return but is now reversing, a trend exacerbated by economic insecurity and dissatisfaction with Biden’s economic policies.
  • “They're losing those voters, and that should be a point of concern, not just on issues of immigration... but also the economy.” – Christine Rosen [03:29]
• Money Deficit and Campaign Apathy
  • The Democratic candidate massively outspent the Republican, raising millions versus “not even half a million.” The district itself is enormous, making Republican dismissals untenable.

2. GOP Strategy and “Idiot Machiavellianism”

• Own-Goals and Redistricting Blunders
  • The panel lambastes recent Republican “self-owns”: mid-decade redistricting aiming to outplay Democrats backfired by diluting GOP strongholds, energizing Democratic organizations, and triggering legal and organizing retaliation.
  • Quote: “By raising the specter of mid-decade redistricting, [the GOP] have shot themselves in both feet, the hand, and the shoulder.” – John Podhoretz [09:42]
• Lack of Experienced Political “Hacks”
  • The absence of old-school, cautious strategists is blamed for the reckless experimentation of the Trump-era GOP.
  • Quote: “Whoever has been coming up with these plans, get rid of them and get some old hack who can say to you, ‘Back in 2002 in Wyoming, they tried to pull an end-around on a judicial election and got their hat handed to them. Let's not do that this time.’” – John Podhoretz [11:23]
• MAGA’s Personality Cult Problem
  • Trump is described as relentlessly action-focused (“let’s have a hurricane and see what happens”), with everything centered on his personal brand, leading to a dearth of broad-based, sustainable strategy.
  • “He doesn't see himself as part of a larger movement. He sees a movement following him. Donald Trump. MAGA is Trump. He said it many times. I am MAGA. MAGA is me.” – Christine Rosen [21:04]

3. Culture War: Transgender Medicine and Parental Rights

• Landmark Malpractice Case
  • Discussion of a $2 million malpractice verdict against a surgeon who performed gender transition surgery on a minor—seen as a cultural and legal inflection point, challenging the previous momentum of “gender-affirming care.”
  • Quote: “This case is a landmark because it starts raising questions... in the mind of the people who thought this is the next big profit center...” – John Podhoretz [27:53]
• Emotional Blackmail Script
  • Panelists highlight the documented pressure on parents, using the argument that their child will commit suicide without medical transition, calling it “the most effective script in the world.”
  • “That line about being told your kid would commit suicide without being transitioned... I’ve heard that over and over and over again for years from parents.” – Abe Greenwald [35:44]
• Critique of Affirmative-Only Medicine
  • The team draws an analogy to treating body dysmorphia by removing perfectly healthy limbs, emphasizing the ethical break from traditional medicine (“Never before have we responded to a non-physical ailment with major surgery.” – Seth Mandel [39:31]).
• Parental Consent and Societal Boundaries
  • The Mahmoud federal case (6-3 ruling in favor of parents against school-imposed gender education) and prohibitions on secret transitions at school are noted as victories for the kind of multipronged, coalition-based activism the Trump White House lacks.
• Foundational Untruth of Gender Change
  • John expounds the epistemological impossibility for anyone to “know” they are the other gender, especially for a child:
    • “How does a kid or an adult know they’re in the wrong body?... You cannot know what you think you know, you are engaged in a category error.” – John Podhoretz [44:35 – 47:00]

4. Epstein Files: Scandal, Conspiracy, and the Elite

• Release and Ramifications
  • The recent document dump has not revealed new actionable information but has exposed private details—including victims' images (some underage), arguably constituting a federal crime.
  • “There’s like basically...naked pictures of 15, 16 year old girls. That’s actually a federal crime to distribute.” – John Podhoretz [52:19]
  • The hosts are disturbed by the legal and ethical implications of releasing unredacted files, with names now tainted forever by mere association (“If everybody’s in the Epstein files, then nobody’s in the Epstein files.” – Seth Mandel [59:09])
• What Remains Unexplained
  • Despite reams of data, the core mysteries—Epstein’s financial fortune, client list, and lack of additional prosecutions—remain unsolved, making the scandal a perennial source of conspiracy fodder.
  • “Everything that comes out just strengthens the conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists. Everything...just throws more pictures and names into this giant vat.” – Seth Mandel [57:17]
  • In their view, Epstein’s true brilliance was never putting anything potentially incriminating in writing.

5. In Memoriam: Catherine O’Hara

• John Podhoretz pays tribute to Catherine O’Hara, sketch comedian and actress, highlighting her extraordinary range from 21 on SCTV through her Christopher Guest film roles.
  • Recommendation: Those unfamiliar should watch “Waiting for Guffman,” “Best in Show,” “A Mighty Wind,” and “For Your Consideration.”
  • SCTV’s first season is available on the Internet Archive ([68:13]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ron DeSantis’ Tweet and GOP Futility
  • “That's how I read talmudically, the Ron DeSantis tweet. Anybody else have the same experience?”
    — John Podhoretz [02:57]
• On Political “Own Goals”
  • “[Republicans] have shot themselves in both feet, the hand, and the shoulder.”
    — John Podhoretz [09:42]
• On Trump’s Mindset
  • “Let’s have a hurricane and see what happens. He’s that guy.”
    — Seth Mandel [16:11]
• On Redistricting
  • “Trump doesn’t know from redistricting. Trump doesn’t know from Indiana’s complex political situation. Somebody comes to him and says, ‘we love to break things, right?’”
    — John Podhoretz [23:18]
• On Parental Pressure in Trans Care
  • “The most effective script in the world: Your child will die without this.”
    — Abe Greenwald [35:44]
• On Epistemological Unreality
  • “How do I know what being a woman is? …It is a nonsensical idea in the understanding of what knowledge is.”
    — John Podhoretz [44:35]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Texas Special Election & GOP Troubles: [03:00 – 13:00]
• Trump Era Strategy vs. Political Tradition: [08:00 – 15:00]
• Redistricting Fiascos and Internal Chaos: [13:00 – 17:00]
• MAGA’s Personality-centric Politics: [21:00 – 25:00]
• Transgender Medical Lawsuits & Parental Rights: [27:00 – 41:00]
• Philosophical Roots of Gender Debate: [44:30 – 48:30]
• Epstein Files: Release, Scandal, and Conspiracy: [50:26 – 64:00]
• In Memoriam: Catherine O’Hara: [66:36 – 68:31]

Episode Tone & Language

• The panel’s tone is characteristically wry, bracingly critical, occasionally punchy and self-deprecating—especially in the face of political blunders.
• They shift to passionate and somber when examining the effects of medical “affirmation” policies and the legal/cultural fallout.
• The Epstein segment combines incredulity, black humor, and deep skepticism about both the elite and official narratives.

Utility for Non-Listeners

This episode provides a brisk but deep tour of the GOP’s post-Trump malaise, warning of the dangers of ignoring electoral realities and relying on wild gambits or personality-driven politics. The Trump years’ legacy is dissected—both in terms of what it achieved on issues like the border and where it is leaving the party threadbare and strategically adrift. The podcast’s dive into the trans medicine malpractice case marks a new phase in the American culture war, emphasizing the law’s role in resetting norms. The Epstein revelations, meanwhile, are cast as both a symptom and an accelerant of elite American decadence.

Advertising, intro, and outro content has been omitted; all notes pertain to substantive discussion.